Indian Defence Review

However, “If China is engaged merely in a general increase in its military capabilities, with no specific adversary in mind, and if these changes result in enhanced Chinese military power in East Asia at the expense of the US then China is offsetting and thereby balancing US power, even if it did not explicitly design its efforts to do so. Increases in a states’ power relative to other states have consequences for the balance of power among them irrespective of the states intentions.”¹⁹ On ground, the US announced its ‘Pivot to Asia’ – a measure by which 60 percent of US forces will be aligned to the Asia-Pacific region by 2020. Such a move has a built-in escalatory dynamic. India has to assess as to how it should respond in terms of military modernisation/deployment and diplomatically.

David Shambaugh, a China specialist, opines that realists’ school of international relations seem to “deductively apply a theory to a situation rather than inductively generate a theory from evidence.” He further states that there is no evidence of ‘Chinese hegemony’ thesis and rejects any prescription of “pre-emptive containment.” He concludes, “Asia is currently witnessing an emergence of a regional community with a multilateral institutional architecture that is based on a series of increasingly shared norms about interstate relations and security.”²⁰ He also succinctly observes that “the evolving Asian system is oriented not around security affairs or major power relations, but around the increasingly dense web of economic, technical, and other ties being forged among Asian nations in the era of accelerating globalisation.”²¹ However, an increasingly modernised and capable Chinese PLA would not be merely for ceremonial purposes. Deducing from the political statements, the Chinese PLA modernisation will continue till full and final resolution of the “unfinished agenda of unification.” The recent vocal Chinese pronouncements on Arunachal Pradesh being “disputed territory” is likely to become more prominent in India-China bilateral relations. While Aksai Chin, which is not being pursued vigorously by India as being its integral part, or even term it as disputed territory, will, in course of time wither away as if it never was even an issue.

Deng Xiaoping had enjoined that China should always “observe calmly; secure our position; cope with affairs calmly; hide our capacities and bide our time; be good at manipulating a low profile; never claim leadership.”²² With this policy outlook, Beijing joined the other East Asian countries which had earlier pivoted their regime survival and leadership legitimacy on economic performance. As a result, China had accumulated the world’s largest reserve account to finance a variety of plausible programs. That it has not used this money for military expansion to the extent that it could have is highly significant. The question is whether it could have ratcheted up its armament even more than it has. It could have, but it has not. This non-occurrence is significant.²³ China, Japan, and other East Asian countries have kept their defence burdens at relatively low levels because they lack the capability to finance it. Will the situation change with US policy of ‘Pivot to Asia’ and Chinese assertive belligerence in South China Sea? It may. If it does it will usher in an ‘arms race’ and greater security cooperation between South Korea, Japan, Australia, and the US. Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam may keep a balance between China and US but could easily tilt to US if China ‘bashes on regardless’ in South China Sea.

Historical precedent suggests that nations in economic transition tend to be assertive externally and that accommodating a rising power into the established order has proved difficult and disruptive. Moreover, scholars correlate war with transition from one system to another: “Challengers [to the existing international system] are those powerful and dissatisfied nations who have grown in power after imposition of the existing order. Their elite face circumstances where the main benefits of the international order have already been allocated. The conditions for conflict are present. Peace is threatened when challengers seek to establish a new place for themselves in the international order; a place to which they believe their increasing power entitles them.”²⁴

Western analysts describe China as a dissatisfied and non-status quo power which seeks to change the existing international order and norms of interstate relations. Nor is it satisfied with the norms and “rules” created by the West in the international system. In fact, the 2008 financial crisis indicated a failure of the “Washington Consensus” and increased the credibility of the “Beijing Consensus.” This gave China’s confidence a major boost. China itself has made concerted efforts to diffuse apprehensions raised by the “China Threat Theory” which has circulated along with its rise. Professor Liu Xiaoying of the Communist Research Institute of Communist University of China rebuts: “China is just regaining its lost right to have a say in world affairs…Historically, the rise of a country has created controversies and raised the concern of its neighbours and above all the existing powers. It is natural for the West to nurse such views as the China Threat Theory. But it should not deny China from having its say.”²⁵

According to him, the Chinese people can have their say by solving their problems, building the country’s image and ridding the rest of the world of its misunderstandings and prejudices through transparency. These explanations notwithstanding, Chinese leaders believe that assertive, even threatening language and provocative action can have beneficial effect by inducing others to negotiate long unresolved outstanding issues, which they may even be ready to do in a conciliatory manner; this belief, moreover, has deep cultural roots.²⁶

India’s political security strategy of restraint is not factored into its military calculus. While restraint may be misperceived as a sign of weakness (not only by the adversary but by domestic audiences as well), therefore reinforcement is a vital adjunct; by undertaking reciprocal steps in response to the other’s restraint, a virtuous cycle can be initiated that will build confidence.²⁷ A case in point being India’s ‘Mountain Strike Corps.’ By raising such a force India has indicated its intention to take the war across its boundary into Tibet if need be. It has prompted China to strengthen its forces in TAR and relocate its strategic assets around TAR. However, this raising of the Corps has not given ground forces the capability to overcome the immense constrains presented by terrain and lack of infrastructure. Had the resources been more pragmatically deployed to augment the reserves at each tactical level (brigade and division) and operational level (Corps and Theatre), including fire power, a realistic purely defensive military posture would have achieved a viable scenario of local ‘deterrence by denial’ without provocative signals. The decision has been a major strategic short-sightedness and a decision which adds only to the paper exercise of bean counting.

There is no doubt that China wishes to be number one in the world. As patriotic Chinese, convinced that China was number one in the world order until the aberration of the last two centuries, it is natural that Chinese leaders will try to replace the USA. A few years ago the CCP got CCTV to air a series on rising powers in history. This was after the Politburo had scholars study and learn lessons from past cases of rising powers, some of which succeeded in becoming number one, like Britain and the US, and some of which failed, like Germany, Japan and the Soviet Union. The CCP wanted their own people to know the results of those studies. The studies showed that rising powers that made the mistake of taking on the reigning hegemon and challenging the existing order too soon failed, like Germany and Japan. The Soviet Union, for its part, made the mistake of entering into an arms race with the USA that it could not win. China’s strategy today vis a vis the USA is not seeking direct confrontation. She privileges economy, diplomacy and force, in that order.²⁸ David Shambaugh, the Sinologist of repute, in a recent controversial article has opined that the end game of the Communist rule has begun. As a consequence visualizes the collapse of the CCP in protracted and violent spasms. While many disagree with this controversial observation, Sinologists will be on high-alert for tell-tale signs of regime decay and decline.

Buy Now: This book is sequel to “Threat from China”.

China remains very conflicted about its international identity and responsibility. Rising dependence on imported oil and other natural resources is fundamentally reshaping China’s energy security strategy. This has major implications for national security strategy, frontier defence, importance of offshore territorial claims, and development of its navy. However, China is also constrained by self-imposed policies about foreign intervention and having no military bases or forces abroad. Comparatively speaking, China possesses greater capacities to contribute to global financial and economic stability and growth, to develop assistance in developing countries, to global climate change, to global public health, to global innovation and technological development, to global energy supplies. In all these areas and others, China’s capacity to influence global patterns and global governance is greater than in the traditional patterns and global governance is greater than in traditional military security arena.²⁹ Avoiding war and attaining one’s goals is the highest form of strategy by any tradition or book — whether Kautilya, Sun Tzu or Machiavelli. China would look more intently at its internal stability, regime security and sustain its uniform economic development. It is unlikely to create a situation where any of these priorities are destabilized or derailed. However, if it feels it is being pushed and shoved and would lose face it will act assertively both diplomatically and economically and react with force as it has done earlier.