Indian Defence Review

It has been 34 years since Chinese authorities displayed their arrogance and insensitivity in crushing the ground swell of civil society aspiring for some space for political participation. There are no parallels of use of ruthless military force against peaceful and unarmed civilians protesting in Tiananmen Square as witnessed  on 04 June 1989. It is estimated that thousands died in this episode that reflected high handedness, absence of morality and ethical prudence of communist leadership.

Nothing surprising when hyphenated with deaths of millions of Chinese during ‘Long March’ who opposed the communist rise since 1920s. The ancient civilization, known for its  philosophical endowments and rich culture, was seen to be scuffled under a untried political philosophy, albeit a concept borrowed from distant lands. Consequent restrictive regime did not fit into a society used to intellectual freedom, traditional ways and entrepreneurial zest to excel.

It was the assurance of food, shelter and prospects of redistribution of resourcesfrom rich to poor that attracted the impoverished people living on the margin. Whereas, the purported dreams turned out to be  atrap   before they could realize and  it was too late to amend. Millions of Chinese were displaced from their habitats and huddled into communes in the name of shelter. There was mass execution of land owners and their lands were taken away as part of redistribution of resources. There are reported to be 45 million deaths in pursuit of making the Mao’s “Great Leap Forward’’ policy a success.

Further to this all individuals were expected to display unflinching loyalty to the Party and accept their dictates without any whimper. If there were any signs of dissent, it could result in punishment depending on gravity of ideological differential. In the process, Communists took away the individual identity, personal liberty, work choice and societal vibrancy, in name of “Cultural revolution’’. It was all done under dictates  of Mao Tse Tung, the supreme leader of Communist Party of China ( CCP). He was proponent of “Power flows from the barrel of  gun’’ and he followed it in letter and spirits.

The institutions of governance were divided into troika of high offices designed  for separation of power, albeit with  intrusive overlaps amongst them.  It included offices of General Secretary of CCP, Head of State Council, and the Chairman of Military Commission. The latter two were function of party ideology and expected to derive policies for its propagation. The ideologically driven political structure had inherent manipulative power dynamics of  one party rule with little scope for dissent.

The transition of the political synthesis was a surgical  process and not an evolutionary incubation of new thought and its validity through societal acceptance. The socio political schism was bound to grow  as a response to hydraulics of natural human instincts for securing own space. However, it took almost four decades for it to explode in form of Tiananmen square episode.

 As a consequence, it did result in some semblance of collective leadership for two decades plus with smooth transition of power in line with the constitution. However, it seems to have reverted back to autocratic ways similar to Mao era under Xi Jinping in recent times. Let’s look at the events that led to Tiananmen square tragedy and how the current environment is wearing towards similar socio political pressures.

Mao died in 1976, to be succeeded by Deng Xiao Ping who followed the Mao’s pattern of centralized control, though open to changes later. It was a period of transition from planned economy to market economy, a  concept termed as “Socialism with Chinese Character’’. Hu Yaobang as General Secretary of CCP proposed reforms with  scope of easing up control and permit limited freedom of expression and public participation in mid 80s. It prompted the students to go on protest for democratic rights. It was not of liking by the top leadership and they removed him from his post in 1987. He was replaced by Zhao Ziyang who also had liberal views.

Consequence to death of Hu Yaobang on 15 April 1989, the students congregated in Tiananmen Square on 16 April and demanded end of corruption, censorship and grant democratic rights. The protest spread all across the nation in 400 cities as reported. The students went on hunger strike on 13 May to press home their demands.

Acceptance of democratic system would have meant failure of communist ideology, loss of political power sans accountability, exposure of the corruptionin high places and consequent severe punitive reprisals later. Hence, it was a compulsion with no compromise for top leadership  to agree to demands of the students.

Failing to evict the protestors, the top leadership declared Marshal Law on 20 May and PLA was instructed to converge on Beijing. A final warning was given by the government on 31^st May to vacate the Square. The  PLA was instructed to remove the agitators and ‘use any means’ required to do that. On morning of 04 June, army troops along with hundreds of tanks entered the square and opened fire on the students without any warning. It resulted in large number of casualties.

The aftermath of this incidence saw the end of protests across the nation as a clear message was conveyed to the masses to fall in line, or else be prepared for the consequences. However, the positive change was commencement of era of political stability that saw unprecedented economic growth. This equation seems to have  changed since Xi Jinping became the General secretary of CCP in 2012, and later President in 2013.

His first act as President was to purge all his opponents in the name of removing corruption. 1.4 million individuals were punished that included politburo members, Generals, intellectuals and social influencers. Subsequently he assumed command and control of all three institutions of governance. Strict censorship was reimposed on media and individuals, besides new mechanism for surveillance over  the conduct of professionals of all hues. Additional measures were initiated to ensure that there is no coup, or rebellion in rank and file of military, police and the civil society.

He also orchestrated removal of provision of two tenures and retirement age in 2017. It paved way for his continuation in top leadership slot for life. Xi has taken China back to dictatorial ways after decades of institutional collective leadership. There are striking similarities between persona of Mao and Xi Jinping with signature aggressive  hegemonic mindset.

President Xi Jinping seems  to have ambitions of going down as the greatest leader ever in the annals of Chinese history. Revival of old Silk Routes, completion of unfinished tasks left by earlier leaders, and establish military credentials appear to be on his radar. However, his schemes and policies are proving to be detrimental to Chinese national interests to quite an extent. He, in his enthusiasm, seems to have ignored the geo political realities and power play in present day environmental context.

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a brain child of Xi Jinping is not progressing as planned due to  inherentconceptual fault lines. These projects being located out of sovereign control of China have no assurance of continuation, besides repayment of loans by  in the poor client  countries. $1.5 trillion of Chinese capital remains unpaid, nor there are  chances of its realization later. Pro US polity and internal security issues in few countries may work towards countering Chinese interests.

The Covid pendamic has taken its toll on Chinese economy in a big way. The strict lock down regime has impacted the production and supply chains of the industry. This  has reduced the personal surplus income which was mainly invested in the real estate sector. While there are large number of townships ready for occupation, but there are few takers. As a result, the real estate sector that happens to be 35% of GDP stands on the verge of insolvency.

The banking sector that has given massive loans within and outside the country is also in red. The stock market in turn has a cascading  effect impacting on functional viability ofnumber of companies. Few multinationals are known to have stopped their operations in China due to conditions of financial uncertainties. The GDP has come down to range of 4 to 5% lowest in last 20 years.

Further, in order to showcase himself as a strong man, Xi Jinping has initiated aggressive military measures against India, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, South East Asian nations and western world. The Chinese military belligerence is against superior and technologically advanced western countries led by the US. Moreover, all the nations are either nuclear powers, or have nuclear protection through alliances. It is certainly way beyond Chinese capability to handle in case of a hot war against any of these fronts. China seems to be living in their make believe world of self ordained military credentials. They are surely in for a surprise.

Apropos, during last one decade under Xi Jinping the economy is on the down slide and China is seen to be in confrontation with almost everyone that matters. Such a hegemonic political conduct has isolated China as a state not easy to work with. It has prompted number of countries to relocate their manufacturing facilities out of China that would further erode Chinese economy in times to come.

Further, continuation of Xi Jinping in chair for longer time may become a matter of discontent within the establishment. It may prompt the ambitious junior politicians to revolt due to denial of top leadership role to them. There is no leader under training for succession like earlier times. It has potential to engulf the polity into divided loyalties leading to power struggle which may turn violent spilling on the streets.

Moreover, the aspirations of the educated middle class for freedom cannot be curbed in an era of digital transparency. The Chinese economy is already functioning on open market concept under camouflage of socialist capitalism. What remains logical is a shift to an appropriate open  format of governance. If not done, then a repeat of rebellion in some form by the Chinese civil society cannot be ruled out. The number of protests by varied sections of the society are already known to be on increase.

Unbridled power with ahighly ambitiouspersonmay become thenemesis of Chinese rise, and reason for socio political rebellion  within. It is time Beijing listens to the whispers beyond the ‘Great wall of China’ and around the ‘Great Hall of People’. The spirit of Tiananmen square has always been alive, and it continues to be relevant in the middle kingdom even in present day context. That’s a reality and cannot be wished away.