Indian Defence Review

The US had launched 59 missiles at Syria in April 2017, and the USS Carl Vinson had headed off to the Korean peninsula.  Kim Jong-Un had replied with missile test after missile test and a nuclear test in September 2017, drawing warnings from the USA of massive military response[1].   Kim Jong-Un and Trump engaged in name-calling:  Kim called Trump “deranged”, and Trump retorted with “Little Rocket Man” in a UN speech.  The US imposed the deepest sanctions ever after the Sept 2017 nuclear test.  The relationship between the two countries went from bad to worse at a rapid pace, compounded by the European Union banning oil exports and investments in North Korea besides other, serious trade sanctions.

Sanctions

Other nations and the UN also imposed sanctions after each nuclear test by North Korea.  In 2016, South Korea ordered shut the Kaesong industrial complex, which was a major employer of 53,000 North Koreans, generating revenue in wages of $90 million to North Korea.  The United Nations had imposed eight rounds of sanctions on North Korea since 2006, when N Korea started nuclear testing[2], with the latest round being in September 2017, and the previous to that being in August 2017.  Even China and Japan imposed sanctions in various ways and forms on North Korea.  These economic sanctions hit hard at the trade and commerce of North Korea, making North Korea reel under those sanctions by January 2018.

Thus, six months ago, there was substantial reason to be concerned about a surprise US air attack on Kim Jong Un’s palace, in a somewhat repeat of the US attack on Muammar Gaddafi in 1982.  Or else a fire and fury storm on North Korea of the type that hailed on Saddam Hussein.  But, by January 2018, the world started to see a Kim Jong-Un change his tone and tune.

Changes in Tone and Tune

Definitely feeling the pinch and pain of the sanctions by the world, though North Korea denies that altogether, the first sign of change came when North and South Korea decided to march under the same flag at the 2018 Winter Olympics.  By itself, this may not be a significant event, considering that the two have marched in this fashion for 17 times previously at international sports events.  However, Kim Jong-Un’s sister and US Vice-President Mike Pence were made to sit in the same box at the Winter Olympics.  Some called this coincidental, but the writer suspects that the South Koreans very carefully planted this circumstance.

Nevertheless, two South Korean officials paid a visit, thereafter, to North Korea, where Kim Jong-Un extended an olive branch to South Korea and the United States, offering to denuclearize in exchange for US withdrawal from South Korea, while recognizing that US-South Korean military exercises must continue.   There was more, of course: North Korea wanted security guarantees plus a few untold bargains.  The South Koreans then brought a proposal for a North Korean–US summit to the White House, and Donald Trump promptly accepted, to the surprise of many in the White House.  The main reason for accepting the talks was Kim Jong-Un’s willingness to discuss denuclearization.  Without this on the table, President Trump wanted no meeting.

As of now, Kim Jong-Un has promised to stop nuclear and missile tests, which is a temporary relief that allows breathing time.  Though Japan wants complete and irreversible removal of all North Korean nuclear assets, even Japan must be realistic, unless they wish to go to war.  And further, both South and North Korea favor a much-needed peace treaty; a hot line has been established between President Moon Jae-In and Kim Jun-Un; and the two met with bonhomie in the DMZ, with each crossing into the others’ country.  They had a lavish Korean banquet, complete with symbolism and pomp from the days when Korea was one country.

Agreements reached between North and South Korea

Already, Moon Jae-In and Kim Jong-Un agreed to the following at their meeting last month:

• A peace treaty between North Korea and USA, ending the war and armistice of 1953.
• Allowing relatives to cross into the other country (for brief visits).
• Agreeing to a fishing zone in the Western part of the peninsula where the two countries have clashed before.  Now, fishermen of both countries will be able to fish in those same waters.
• Stopping the blare of loudspeakers from across the DMZ.
• Establishing a hot line between the two Presidents.
• Agreeing to work together for peace and prosperity in the Koreas.

There was even talk of South Korean investment to build roads.  And all this is going to be capped with a meeting between Donald Trump and Kim Jong-Un.

These are rapid changes – faster than one can possibly keep up with, let alone imagine only six months ago.  But, they are headed in the right direction.  Seldom can one move from the starting point to the end point without going through multiple intermediate stages.  There is always a process one has to go through.  Thus, Japan, who has its eyes only on denuclearization, will have to be patient.

Rapid Events in the USA

At the US end, this period was accompanied by various distractions — firings of Rex Tillerson, Lt Gen McMaster, and the FBI Acting Director, the latter done only one day before his retirement.  The Mueller and Stormy Daniels cases took much airtime.  The news media could not figure which news to focus on before the next big event emerged, almost spontaneously.   There was a lot of noise in the media about every major event, drowning out previous each event by the next.  Trade tariffs on China, and tariffs against all steel and aluminum exporters to the USA were another big moment in the world, affecting world economic markets and the security perspective of many nations. While China backtracked and gave in to Donald Trump on the matter of tariffs (negotiations yet to conclude), Kim Jong-Un paid a surprise visit to Beijing.  It naturally appears that Kim Jong-Un will try everything and meet anybody to have his sanctions reversed.  The lesson from the strikes on Syria by Western powers has probably not been lost on Kim Jong-Un, who probably shudders at the thought, while everyone knows that his missiles really can’t reach the USA yet, whatever he may claim.

And, in a surprise and secret mission, Mike Pompeo visited North Korea, met Kim Jong-Un, and plans for a historical summit between Trump and Kim Jong-Un are forging ahead.

However, the US is willing to seize the opportunity if a deep thaw in Korean relations can result.  There are various benefits of a change in the stance and position of South and North Korea, USA and China.  But, we must now analyze what offers have been made, what the two sides may agree to, what brought them this far, the role of the leftist Moon Jae-In and China, what Kim Jong-Un means by denuclearization, and how the chances of a war are not over yet.

Also to be covered are a peace treaty on the peninsula after 65 years, meetings between relatives on the North and South sides, the problem of the THAAD missiles, and South Korean relations with USA.

The Issues on the Table

North Korea wants a lifting of the sanctions and offers a denuclearization on the peninsula; Kim does not now insist on a withdrawal of US troops, realizing that that is neither here nor there, since the USA has agreed many times in the past not to attack North Korea.   He probably feels that the USA will withdraw troops anyway, so why press an issue that has no resistance?  Other issues that Trump has in mind are a peace treaty and complete nuclear disarmament by Kim Jong-Un.  American, Chinese, and South Korean investment in North Korea is another possibility that has not been mentioned yet, there being other smaller details to take care of first to set the path straight.

The US wants to actually withdraw most of its troops from South Korea, mainly because South Korea is not paying for the THAAD missiles.  China wants the THAAD missiles removed owing to their proximity to China, but the USA wishes to keep those missiles there for the very same reason.  Even South Korea asked for the THAAD missiles to be removed, because President Moon has leftist, globalist leanings, and is pressured by China.  At the end of the day, we should question whether it is the hidden hand of China behind all these moves to create a possible free-trade zone in the Korean peninsula, so that they can sell their goods easily there.  A thaw in relations will mean that China comes out as the top dog on the peninsula, mainly owing to its geographical proximity.

The South Koreans have long had a love-hate relationship with USA.  Leftist parties want to see the USA leave the peninsula altogether, while rightist parties fear that a war with North Korea may come more likely as a result, because North Korea could be emboldened to take unilateral military action, much as it did in 1950.  Hence, right leaning parties want to see US presence continue.  However, partial compromises and small agreements may be able to nudge all parties to the next level.  It is difficult to see complete resolution at this very first meeting between Kim Jong-Un and Donald Trump.

Globalism and the Leftist Moon

President Moon came to power by a media coup that brought charges – possibly fabricated – against President Park.  In fact, President Parks’ removal and arrest were dubbed as a media coup, where 70% of the media in South Korea is leftist.  The judges are not much different, supposedly.  Almost immediately during his campaign to become President, Moon Jae-In let it be known he wanted a thaw in relations with North Korea.  That said, there is substantive evidence that Moon belongs to the left that is close to China, and perhaps even being beholden to China.  There is some evidence that China funds and interferes in internal South Korean politics.

If this is true, Moon is committed to advance China’s agenda, which is mostly a globalist agenda – that of free trade – while President Trump supports a nationalist agenda.  The main aim of China here is to capture the Korean trade and commerce market with its vastly cheaper goods and products.  To accomplish this, China needs to bring a thaw to the relations between North and South Korea, and have the sanctions on North Korea eased.

Nevertheless, there is some rationale in believing that China is behind the entire thaw because (i) President Moon is leftist, and (ii) China stands to gain from a trade perspective, and (iii) China could rid itself of US troops out of Korea, as a byproduct of the deal, even as Trump wants them out, regardless.  That President Trump demanded from Xi Jinping to rein in North Korea also fell in line with Chinese interests.   Whether China or USA win the evolving bargain, or whether they gain equally, can only be known later.  But, all these events bring a much-needed change to entrenched positions in Korea as a whole and the tied-down status quo.

In one sense, the USA could become intransigent, dig in its heels, and insist that North Korea must denuclearize for any ease on sanctions.  This is quite likely.

Possible War in 1990-92

While North Korea invaded the South in 1950, the South thought seriously of invading the North in the 1990-92 period, when North Korea did NOT have nuclear weapons.   The South had a sophisticated army and airforce, built with US help, while the North had antiquated tanks and artillery pieces.  But, the USA became occupied withIraq, and in managing the fallout from the collapse of the Soviet empire, leaving the South Koreans to their own resources.  Yet, the South Koreans did not have the courage to launch an attack on their own, fearing Chinese intervention, international condemnation, and, most importantly, a North Korean artillery barrage on Seoul.   The South felt it could have weathered all condemnation and onslaughts, but except for the artillery barrage on Seoul, which had about 10 million inhabitants that time.  At the end of their consideration period, the South rationalized it was unsafe to undertake the invasion, focusing instead on economic development, and thinking that there would be another time.

But, that other time never came.  Pakistan gave North Korea nuclear secrets, proliferated, of course, by China, and the North embarked on a treacherous path to nuclear weapons[3].  Many sanctions, threats, food aid for denuclearization, six party talks, and additional food deals later, the West felt deceived and threatened by North Korea when the latter restarted its Yongbyon reactor, and was nowhere close to a solution till Donald Trump’s most deep sanctions of October 2017.  Those sanctions had Kim Jong-Un reeling and, undoubtedly,brought him to the negotiating table, even as North Korea vehemently objects to this reasoning, for obvious reasons that it seeks to keep face and prestige.

South Korean Relations with USA

South Korean relations with USA have been a love-hate relationship.  The Koreans love the financial investment and technology that USA has brought to South Korea, and, indeed, to other East Asian nations such as Taiwan and Japan.  As a result, South Korea has seen unparalleled prosperity in a very short time.  Now, South Korea manufactures advanced fighter aircraft, submarines, howitzers, and exports military armaments.

Moreover, South Korea has enjoyed military security that the USA has provided.  And, the South Korean military has been equipped and trained by the USA, bringing South Korea from a backwater country in WW II to a sophisticated power today.  In contrast, North Korea still possesses and manufactures outdated battle tank and artillery designs.  The US assistance that South Korea received is something South Korea should be grateful for.

But that has not happened to the extent the US would like.  The leftists and rightists are divided, with the left often wanting to see a US exit, and President Moon Jae-In wants the THAADs removed from South Korea, not seeing eye-to-eye with President Trump, largely because Jae-In chases a globalist agenda while Trump carries a nationalist agenda.  On the other hand, the right urges the USA to never ever leave or abandon South Korea.

The result of this tug-of-war is that USA has only half a heart to stay on in South Korea.  It is evident that South Korea will have to face the brunt of any attack by North Korea, so why should the US tolerate the hate of South Koreans?  That said, USA would wish to give South Korea military muscle to fight its own wars, while attending to other, more important matters in other critical spots in the world.  Among other, Korea war veterans, who are still alive today, would not like to see USA abandon Korea, which they fought and shed their blood in.  However, considering that the USA withdrew from Vietnam, it is not altogether impossible for USA to consider the option of pulling out, though it may leave a smaller footprint  in South Korea –say 4-5,000 troops.

Possible Outcomes

Among the most likely outcomes is that a peace treaty will be signed when President Trump meets Kim Jong-Un.   This is probably a given, by now, is easy to do on paper, and would be a significant psychological step forward even if it doesn’t denuclearize the peninsula.  From what has transpired to date, it is also possible that the two Koreas will step further back from the DMZ, thus eliminating the present eyeball-to-eyeball contact the two nations have on the military border.I doubt if either North or South Korea will reduce their readiness levels, as a result, but thinning their presence in the demilitarized zoneis a welcome step as they seek to disentangle.

Naturally, Kim Jong-Un cannot be trusted to give up his nuclear arms, because he well remembers what happened to Muammar Gaddafi, despite all the security guarantees the USA gives.  The trouble is that even if USA can be trusted to keep its side of the bargain, South Korea cannot because they are interested in reunification.  Neither can Kim Jong-Un think it will be a fair deal to agree to give up nuclear weapons only if the USA gives them up in a quid-pro-quo.  Further, it will be very naive of the USA to trust and believe Kim Jong-Un to disavow nuclear weapons altogether.  Everyone should be aware that nuclear material can be hidden in underground facilities, and the centrifuges can also operate unseen in secret facilities in mountain caverns and underground structures.  After all, the team of Hans Blix and the total might of the UN could not find WMDs in Iraq till they were discovered much later after the US-led invasion[4].

The next outcome would be to declare the Korean peninsula a free trade zone for China, South Korea, and US to operate there, if not also Japan[5]. First and foremost, this would improve the economy of North Korea.  Next, it would expand Chinese, South Korean, and US exports to North Korea.  South Koreaand China could purchase North Korean coal, in exchange.  The writer estimates that the total trade value increase in North Korea could touch $25 billion/year, given the absolute paucity of infrastructure, industry, and jobs in North Korea, where the total GDP of North Korea at present is only $28 billion.  This would be a bonanza for the North more than anything for anyone else.

Trump might withdraw 15-25,000 of his 28,000 troops in South Korea.  He doesn’t want to fight on the South Korean side when there is much hate there against America.  Let the South Koreans spill their own blood for their own soil.  In fact, South Korea does not need military guarantees from USA, given that they are up to the task themselves to defend their own country.  There is no need for the USA to fight other people’s battles for them.  Besides, the USA will save money by bringing troops home or sending them to needed places.  Moreover, the “forward” position of US troops in Korea does little to protect US interests.  In fact, the US could possibly align itself with North Korea, even if that idea is far-fetched.

But among the security guarantees that the USA will seek, which may not be resolved, is the complete dismantling of Kim Jong-Un’s ballistic missile arsenal that can surely reach all parts of Japan.  Shinzo Abe is particularly interested in seeing North Korea completely defanged, but which may be wishful thinking rather than anything practical.

Further, Kim Jong-Un will want guarantees that he will not be overthrown, deposed, or invaded by South Korea.  But, the USA may be unwilling to give this guarantee so long as Kim Jong-Un keeps his nuclear arsenal.  Hence, the stand-off could continue, but smaller accomplishments could be achieved.

Hence, there are a few positive steps forward that the peninsula can take when Kim Jong-Un and Donald Trump meet, mainly the signing of a peace treaty. Other, smaller agreements between South and North Korea, listed earlier, have already been implemented by the two sides.  But other than that, negotiations are unlikely to give the USA and Japan what they really want – viz., denuclearization of the peninsula.  Nevertheless, after 65 years after the armistice, a peace treaty and the other small agreements are a great step forward.

War Scenarios

All that said, no one is even mentioning North and South Korea demilitarizing and reducing force levels.  So, that is not happening, by a long shot.  While the two countries may pull back a few miles from the DMZ, the artillery barrage from North Korea can still rain down on Seoul.  The potential for war does not disappear.

Given the possible situation that Kim Jong-Un does agree to give up his nuclear weapons and permit US inspections, the USA knows from history that North Korea can cheat.  However, assuming that cheating may not occur, North Korea can still rain down an artillery barrage on Seoul for whatever provocative reason.  This is a prospective event that the South Koreans are unable to find palatable.

To avoid this prospective impasse, South Korea started to move some of its government ministry’s away from Seoul – away from the range of North Korean artillery.  Yet, this movement has been painstakingly slow, with only four to five ministry’s having moved in the past ten to fifteen years.  From a realistic, economic, and logistic standpoint, the mass movement of 10 million people away from Seoul, including its entire government, is a Herculean task.

However, if South Korea should ever wish to invade North Korea, and if South Korea does not want to see Seoul destroyed, it will be absolutely unlikely that it can invade North Korea.  South Korea cannot eat its cake and have it too.

But, if South Korea can tolerate physical damage to Seoul – and tolerate an economic setback for 10-20 years till it rebuilds — it can move its citizens away from Seouland then invade North Korea.

But, during such a war, the citizens of Seoul will have to be prepared to live in makeshift camps, which is also a logistical nightmare.  In addition, South Korea will have to start preparing many years in advance for such a massive effort.   But, none of this seems to be happening.

But, neither will South Korea tolerate blackmail by North Korea.  The South will not capitulate on a mere threat by the North to obliterate South Korea even if by conventional means.  Hence, the stalemate is likely to continue unless some wishful outcomes can emerge, notwithstanding that the ego and pride of the parties will have to reduce.

Wishful Outcomes

With everyone wanting resolution the easy way, it is not impossible to conceive that Kim Jong-Un will denuclearize at a price – say $50 billion – and request an annual financial industrial investment – at, say, $25 billion a year.  This will still keep his artillery intact, will still leave Seoul undestroyed, will ensure peace, will enable North Korea to be pulled out of poverty, will enable Kim Jong-Un to retain his position as head of North Korea (though for how long, we don’t know), will industrialize North Korea, will eliminate the nuclear threat to Japan and USA, and will allow China and USA to invest in North Korea.  Money may not be able to buy everything or love, but it is conceivable that it can buy peace in the Korean peninsula.  Moreover, the fact is that China, USA, and South Korea – combined — can afford to buy peace with North Korea.

Needless to say, each investing country will expect to recover its investment over the next 10-20 years.  If Kim Jong-Un will not allow this, they could all escape the possibility of lasting peace in the Koreas.  This is all the more pertinent, because President Trump has stated repeatedly that he will not agree to lifting sanctions on North Korea unless Kim Jong-Un gives up his nukes and delivery systems.  Given the deep pain and pinch Kim Jong-Un is feeling as a result of the sanctions, and his repeated willingness to denuclearize, it is not impossible that he will agree to denuclearize, albeit in a phased manner, with phased input of capital investment, and multiple assurances of security and peace from South Korea and USA.  Giving up ballistic technology is still secondary to denuclearization because ballistic technology can be used for peaceful satellite and space programs.

Closure

It is rational to expect mature countries to show rationality in their behavior.  It is not asking for much from China and USA, and South Korea and North Korea to show rationality.   The world wants it, and has a chance in North Korea to show it prefers peace instead of war.  Needless to say again, President Trump’s deep sanctions against North Korea have driven Kim Jong-Un to his senses – and perhaps to rationality. President Trump has clearly stated that he will make the deals he can, but will walk away from additional deals that do not yield dividends.  The rest will undoubtedly unfold in the days and months to come.