Geopolitics

North Korea: A Rogue State Pain in the Neck for All
Star Rating Loader Please wait...
Issue Net Edition | Date : 21 Sep , 2017

North Korea has been accelerating its nuclear weapons development under the leadership of Kim Jong Un, a third-generation dictator who has conducted four of North Korea’s six nuclear tests since taking power in 2011. The weapons are being tested at a torrid pace and include solid-fuel missiles have been designed for launching from road mobile launchers or submarines and are thus less detectable beforehand.

North Korea claimed its latest nuclear test was a detonation of a thermonuclear weapon built for its Intermediate Range Continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM), which could potentially reach deep into the U.S. mainland when perfected.

Thermonuclear Device

Under third-generation leader Kim, North Korea has been pursuing a nuclear device small and light enough to fit on a long-range ballistic missile, without affecting its range and making it capable of surviving re-entry.

North Korea claimed in January last year to have tested a miniaturised hydrogen bomb, also known as a thermonuclear device, but outside experts were sceptical, suggesting it could have been a “boosted device”, an atomic bomb that uses some hydrogen isotopes to increase its explosive yield.

Indian Reaction

India said that it “deplores” North Korea’s latest nuclear test, calling it a “matter of deep concern that DPRK [Democratic People’s Republic of Korea] has once again acted in violation of its international commitments.”

The North Korean nuclear test, its sixth and biggest-ever, goes against the objective of the de-nuclearisation of the Korean peninsula, which has been endorsed by Pyongyang itself, New Delhi said.

New Delhi also hinted at its concern about North Korean nuclear missiles falling into the wrong hands, saying, “India also remains concerned about the proliferation of nuclear and missile technologies which has adversely impacted India’s national security.”

The test, which came mere hours before the BRICS Summit in China kicked off, drew swift international condemnation, including from US President Donald Trump, who described North Korea as a “rogue nation” and said its actions “continue to be very hostile and dangerous to the United States”.

The test had registered with international seismic agencies as a manmade earthquake near a test site in the North. Japanese and South Korean officials said it was around 10 times more powerful than the tremor picked up after North Korea’s last nuclear test a year ago.

A US official who studies North Korea’s military and politics said it was too early to determine if the test supported the North’s claim that it had succeeded in developing a thermonuclear weapon, “much less one that could be mounted on an ICBM and re-enter Earth’s atmosphere without burning up”.”The power is 10 or 20 times or even more than previous ones,” said Kune Y. Suh, a nuclear engineering professor at Seoul National University

Hourglass-Shaped Device

Hours before the test, North Korea’s state news agency KCNA had released pictures showing Kim Jong Un inspecting a silver-coloured, hourglass-shaped warhead during a visit to the country’s nuclear weapons institute, accompanied by scientists.

Kim “watched an H-bomb to be loaded into new ICBM” and “set forth tasks to be fulfilled in the research into nukes”, KCNA said.

UN Sanctions

The U.N. Security Council unanimously approved new sanctions on September 2 over the nuclear test. These sanctions ban all textile exports and prohibit any country from authorising new work permits for North-Korean workers, two key sources of hard currency. They also prohibit North Korea from importing any natural gas liquids and condensates, and cap Pyongyang’s imports of crude oil and refined petroleum products.

North has already been declared as a rogue state by by definition it can do whatever it wants. It can, for example, test an H-bomb despite outside disapproval, and launch missiles into the seas near other countries.

But a rogue state by the same definition doesn’t have a lot of friends. The 15-member United Nations Security Council proved that by approving limits on inbound oil supplies and tighter inspections of cargo ships going in and out of its ports.

These sanctions, harsher than those approved before by the U.N. and individual governments such as Washington D.C., are all designed to pinch North Korea’s economy. But one measure will pinch harder than the rest — the U.N. resolution’s ban on textile imports coming out of North Korea.

Here’s how the programme got to where it is:

Late 1970s: North Korea starts working on a version of the Soviet Scud-B (range 300 kilometres or 186 miles). Test-fired in 1984

1987-92: Begins developing variant of Scud-C (500 km), Rodong-1 (1,300 km), Taepodong-1 (2,500 km), Musudan-1 (3,000 km) and Taepodong-2 (6,700 km)

Aug 1998: Test-fires Taepodong-1 over Japan

Oct 9, 2006: First underground nuclear test.

May 25, 2009: Second underground nuclear test, several times more powerful than the first

December 13, 2011: Leader Kim Jong-Il dies, is succeeded by his son Kim Jong-Un

December 12, 2012: The North launches multi-stage rocket and successfully places satellite in orbit

February 12, 2013: Third underground nuclear test

January 6, 2016: Fourth underground nuclear test, which Pyongyang claims was hydrogen bomb

March 9, 2016: Kim Jong-Un claims the North has successfully miniaturised a thermo-nuclear warhead

April 23, 2016: North test-fires a submarine-launched ballistic missile

July 8, 2016: US and South Korea announce plans to deploy an advanced missile defence system — the US THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense)

August 3, 2016: North Korea fires a ballistic missile directly into Japanese-controlled waters for the first time.

September 9, 2016: Fifth nuclear test carried out.

February 12, 2017: Tests ballistic missile, which flies about 500 kilometres (310 miles) before falling into the Sea of Japan

March 6, 2017: North fires four ballistic missiles in what is says is an exercise to hit US bases in Japan

March 19, 2017: North Korea says it has tested a new rocket engine

April 5, 2017: North Korea fires a ballistic missile into the Sea of Japan

May 2, 2017: THAAD anti-missile system goes operational in South Korea

May 14, 2017: North fires what it says is a “newly-developed mid/long-range strategic ballistic rocket, Hwasong-12”, which flies 700 kilometres before landing in the Sea of Japan

May 29, 2017: Test fires a short-range ballistic missile, which lands in Japan’s exclusive economic zone

June 8, 2017: North Korea launches what it claims is new type of ‘cruise rocket’

June 22, 2017: North Korea tests a rocket engine which could be fitted to an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) ahead of South Korean President Moon Jae-In’s first trip to Washington since taking office

July 4, 2017: North Korea says it successfully tests an ICBM which is capable of reaching Alaska. Kim Jong-Un says it is a gift for the “American bastards”

July 28: Second successful ICBM test

August 6, 2017: UN Security Council unanimously adopts tougher sanctions on the North

August 9, 2017: US President Donald Trump threatens Pyongyang with “fire and fury” over its missile program— Hours later, North Korea says it is considering strikes near US strategic military installations in Guam

August 29, 2017: North Korea fires a ballistic missile over Japan. Tokyo says it is an “unprecedented, serious and grave threat”

September 3, 2017: North Korean state media claims the country has developed a hydrogen bomb, which can be loaded into ICBM — North, conducts its sixth and largest yet nuclear test. Monitoring groups estimate a yield of 250 kilotons, which is 16 times the size of the 15-kiloton US bomb that destroyed Hiroshima in 1945

September 12, 2017: UN Security Council unanimously adopts new sanctions, slapping a ban on textile exports and restricting shipments of oil products to North Korea

September 15: North Korea fires a ballistic missile over Japan and into the Pacific, responding to new UN sanctions with what appears to be its furthest-ever missile flight

North Korean factories depend heavily on the production of coats and suits, for both men and women, to develop its economy in not-so-roguish fashion through trade, especially with other parts of Asia. The industry that took hold in the 1970s offers thousands of jobs to a largely poor population and helps close a trade deficit.

In 2015 North Korea exported $2.3 billion in goods and imported $3.47 billion, according to this country profile. The top exports destinations that year were India, Pakistan and North Korea’s best friend China.

Security Council members knew the textile import ban would sting, per language in the resolution. A Japanese U.N. representative said the resolution strengthens sanctions to “an unprecedented level, with the ban on textile exports expected to reduce its revenues by $800 million.”

The Security Council’s ban on oil-related exports to North Korea will hurt industry as well as weapons development. But the U.N. body muted that measure with conditions on amounts and time frames. Shipments to North Korea are expected to fall 30%, the resolution says.

North Korea has threatened to sink Japan and reduce the US to “ashes and darkness” for leading the latest UN Security Council sanctions imposed on the country.

Reacting to the vote on 7 September, North Korea said the US ought to “be beaten to death” for spearheading the penalties.

All 15 members of the Security Council, including China and Russia, approved the sanctions, which also make it illegal for foreign firms to form commercial agreements with North Korean organisations.

North Korea Defiance

The growing frequency, power and confidence displayed by these tests seems to confirm what governments and outside experts have long feared — North Korea is closer than ever to its goal of building a military arsenal that can viably target both U.S. troops in Asia and the U.S. homeland.

North Korea has repeatedly vowed to continue these tests amid what it calls U.S. hostility, by which it means the presence of tens of thousands of U.S. troops in Japan and South Korea.

Robust diplomacy on the issue has been stalled for years, and there’s little sign that senior officials from Pyongyang and Washington might sit down to discuss ways to slow the North’s determined march toward inclusion among the world’s nuclear weapons powers.

The missile, which triggered sirens and warning messages in northern Japan but caused no apparent damage to aircraft or ships, was the second fired over Japan in less than a month. North Korea conducted its sixth and most powerful nuclear test on September 3.

That missile is linked to North Korea’s declaration that it means to contain the U.S. Pacific island territory of Guam, which is the home of important U.S. military assets and appears well within the Hwasong-12’s range.

The North American Aerospace Defense Command and the U.S. Pacific Command said the missile posed no threat to North America or to Guam.

Rate this Article
Star Rating Loader Please wait...
The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or policies of the Indian Defence Review.

About the Author

Col (Dr) PK Vasudeva

is author of World Trade Organisation: Implications for Indian Economy, Pearson Education and also a former Professor International Trade.

More by the same author

Post your Comment

2000characters left