Indian Defence Review

Prime Minister Narendra Modi with President of Afghanistan Dr Mohammad Ashraf Ghani, and President of Iran, Mr. Hassan Rouhani witnessing the signing of Trilateral Agreement between India, Afghanistan and Iran, in Tehran

Use of Chahbahar Port by India and Afghanistan will enable both countries to carry out their trade without being dependent on Pakistan. It will also benefit Iran as the use of this port facility by different countries will earn it huge revenue. Secondly, as part of the agreement, India will construct a rail line from Chahbahar to Zahedan, close to the tri-junction of Pakistan-Afghanistan-Iran border. This will give India access to Afghanistan and Central Asia, outflanking Pakistan, and in particular obviate the necessity of using Pakistani port of Gwadar. 

At the international level, very little happens by sheer coincidence, particularly when countries take decisions resulting in events having huge strategic significance. A few days back two such events took place which captured every one’s imagination. The first one was the message which the front page picture in most newspapers and social media web sites, conveyed; the heads of governments of India, Iran and Afghanistan holding each others’ hands after having signed the Chahbahar Port Development Agreement, besides others. The second was the targeted killing of Pakistan appointed and Pakistan based new chief of Afghan Taliban, Mullah Mansour. The killing, which was carried out by the American drone attack in the remote area in south west of the restive Baluchistan province of Pakistan, had Pakistan fuming at America for the latter having violated its sovereignty !

During the past decade or more, China has been stitching up its string of pearls around India in order to choke its strategic options. Three of the most brazen of these were the construction of Hambantota port in Srilanka, the deployment of PLA along with its work force in PoK (for construction and upgrading of the Karakorum Highway) and completion and takeover of the Gwadar port in Baluchistan Province of Pakistan by the Chinese, as part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. The pusillanimous central government in India during bulk of this period had no clue on how to restore the strategic balance by countering these Chinese moves. As they allowed the matters to drift, Pakistan connived with its all weather friend, China, to put India in the dock; Chinese at Gwadar and in PoK was the result of this connivance.

A pro-active Government under the newly elected PM, Narendra Modi, taking office in India in May 2014, lifting of the sanctions on Iran by America last year, the emergence of IS as the new Sunni Muslim threat to the western world in general and to America’s Arab allies and Iran in particular, gave rise to the changing strategic dynamics, which is visible now. In the meanwhile, Pakistan’s continued support to Taliban and proven involvement of ISI in their repeated attacks against the legally established government in Kabul, created anger and frustration in Afghanistan. Its newly elected President, Ashraf Ghani, had put his reputation at stake by making friendly overtures to Pakistan in the hope that it (Pakistan) will rein in its protégé, Taliban, and bring it to the negotiating table.

However, it was like expecting a cow not to eat grass. As Afghan President’s disillusionment with Pakistan’s double dealing grew, he decided to come on board in the Iran-India-Afghanistan deal in the larger interests of regional cooperation for its own long-term prosperity. Nothing could be clearer manifestation of this new strategic re-alignment/ thinking than what the events mentioned in above convey.

India and Afghan people have traditionally enjoyed most friendly relations over many centuries. In the warmer winter climate of India, the ubiquitous Kabuliwala, selling dry fruits, shilajit and Afghan carpets used to be a routine sight. Khan Abdul Ghaffar Khan, aka, the Frontier Gandhi, a towering Pashtu leader, was a close comrade of Mahatma Gandhi during the freedom struggle. One of my own ancestors, Nanda Ram Tikoo, rose to the level of Diwan of Kabul during the reign of Durrani King, Shah Zaman (1793-1800), when Wafadar Khan was the Prime minister.

However, the partition of India in 1947 impacted this relationship adversely. Afghanistan now became a land-locked country, totally dependent on Pakistan’s Karachi port for its trade with the external world. Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in 1978, the struggle launched by the Mujahedeen against this occupation under the overall leadership of America, turned Pakistan into a frontline state due to its geo-strategic location. Rise of Taliban (a Pakistan proxy) and their eventual capture of power in Afghanistan, further dealt a blow to Indo-Afghan relations as it was Pakistan which now dictated Afghan policies.

This situation, based on deceit and double dealing by Pakistan, did not last too long. The rise of Al Qaeda, attack on World Trade Centre in New York and the after effects of 9/11 events, changed all that. When the American troops landed in Afghanistan to take on the Taliban (who acted as hosts of Al Qaeda), India, as a generous and a historical friend, rendered as much non-military assistance as it could to the war affected people. This generous aid, given without any strings attached, endeared Indians to the Afghan people and put life back into its historically friendly relations with Afghanistan. Pakistan, which has long considered Afghanistan its back yard, wherein it (Pakistan) will not tolerate any Indian influence, tried every stratagem to create road blocks for India.

India can neither send its aid, nor trade with Afghanistan, using the shortest route through Pakistan, as the latter won’t permit it. This results in India taking a circuitous route via the Gulf, to reach Afghanistan, thereby increasing the costs of aid and exports substantially. Similarly, India has vast economic and trade interests in the Central Asian countries. But here too, Indian imports and exports have to adopt a much costlier option of skirting Pakistan, as the latter won’t permit transit facilities through its territory. It is here that development of Chahbahar port, located just 100 km from Gwadar, but in Iran, attains significant importance. Firstly, use of Chahbahar by India and Afghanistan will enable both countries to carry out their trade without being dependent on Pakistan. It will also benefit Iran as the use of this port facility by different countries will earn it huge revenue.

Secondly, as part of the agreement, India will construct a rail line from Chahbahar to Zahedan, close to the tri-junction of Pakistan-Afghanistan-Iran border. This will give India access to Afghanistan and Central Asia, outflanking Pakistan, and in particular obviate the necessity of using Pakistani port of Gwadar. Besides, it is unlikely that China will allow India the use of Gwadar port which is part of China’s Silk Route Economic Belt Initiative.

It may be mentioned that a road connecting these two cities in Iran has already been constructed by India earlier. Consequently, this will significantly lower the strategic importance of Gwadar, as Chahbahar will have as much strategic importance in dominating access to the Gulf, and providing a cheaper alternative of trade route to Afghanistan and Central Asia. In this regard it is of significance to mention that India has already built Zaranj-Delaram road in Afghanistan. Consequently, Afghanistan and Chahbahar can now be linked to the International North – South Transport Corridor, a portion of which, namely, Iran-Turkmenistan-Kazakhstan rail link, is already operational.

The second even of significance was the killing of Mullah Mansour , the Chief of Afghan Taliban. He had been appointed to this post by ISI two years after the death of their supreme leader, Mullah Omar in 2013; a fact that had been hidden from the rest of the world for obvious reasons. Mullah Akhtar Mansour was travelling from the border town of Taftan in Baluchistan to the provincial capital, Quetta, on 21 May 2016, when the U.S drone attacked his car killing him and his driver instantly. Though CIA has been using drones in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa region to neutralise leaders of Haqqani network regularly, with Pakistan turning a blind eye to such violations of its territory, it is for the first time that U.S. drone has attacked a target inside Pakistan territory in Baluchistan.

Pakistan lodged a protest by calling its ambassador to the foreign office and telling him that the U.S. had violated its sovereignty. However, the U.S. ignored the protest and reiterated that the U.S will hit at any target that threatens its security.

Mullah Mansour had of late become an obstacle in the initiation of peace talks led by the Quadrilateral Coordination Group, comprising Afghanistan, Pakistan, the U.S. and china, aimed at reaching an understanding between the Government in Kabul and the Taliban, to end the decade’s old strife in Afghanistan. The talks have been stalled for one reason or the other. Mansour has paid the ultimate price for dithering on the issue. However, it may be premature to conclude that he alone was to blame for the stalled talks. After all, ISI exercises enormous power over the insurgent group, which, in the first place, is its own creation. However, by shifting the entire blame for the stalled talks on Mullah Mansour, the ISI has, once again, deftly, got out of an awkward situation, at least for the time being.

Killing of Mullah Mansour by the Americans in the manner they did, underscore the fact that America cares two hoots for Pakistani sovereignty. This has happened quite often; the most blatant being the killing of Osama Bin Laden, through a special forces raid, 400 km inside Pakistan.

Symour Hersh, the legendary investigative journalist, in his latest revelations says that many Pakistani Generals had been bribed with millions of dollars to buy their silence and to look the other way when the raid took place. Taliban is a highly factionalized insurgent group and even ISI will find it difficult to search for a suitable replacement.

Already newspaper reports indicate that some senior insurgents have refused to accept the responsibility to head the group. This is bound to put Taliban into disarray and weaken the opposition to Ashraf Ghani, eventually helping President Obama to withdraw its last remaining troops from Afghanistan and thus enabling him to fulfil his poll promise.