Indian Defence Review

The terrorist attack near the British Parliament in which a man rammed a car into pedestrians on Westminster Bridge in London, resembles a common pattern by attackers who have been widely called “lone wolves”. The assailant has been identified as Khalid Masood, a 52-year-old British-born man and a converted Muslim living in Birmingham. Four people were killed and 50 injured when Masood drove his car into people on Westminster Bridge and stabbed an officer guarding Parliament. Prime Minister Theresa May said that the victims came from 11 countries, including Romania, the US, and China. This was Britain’s deadliest attack since the 2005 London bombings.

The ISIS is now facing heavy odds in its battle to hold on to its territory in Syria and Iraq. Mosul, the most strategic and emotionally inseparable, is under threat. This city is the place where Baghdadi pronounced himself Caliph. Besides, Raqqa , the ISIS’s capital in Syria, also is unlikely to defend itself in the face of a multinational assault. The defence analysts have begun predicting the ultimate doom of the so called Caliphate and more importantly as to whether Islamic State would remain as a territorial entity or will be an idea only.

There have been series of territorial losses in last one year that the ISIS has been able to downplay by use its social media team as if there has been no reverses . The ISIS does not seem to be too worried of not being able to hold on or expand its territorial governance. It is substituting it with rhetorical propaganda through which it aims to be a part of the Caliphate history and narrative. They can do away with the governance as long as they are able to ‘inspire’ other faithful. The recent propaganda by ISIS has more focus on Islamic ritual observance and theology. The fact that the ISIS had once ruled a vast territory as the only true authentic Islamic state practicing all the application of Islam and the punishment of any violation of it, bears the credence for circulating such ideas.

The rise of the ‘lone wolf’, however, indicates weakening of the Islamic State position. The ‘lone wolf’ attack is typically a weapon of choice for a terrorist organisation that can no longer mount bigger and more sophisticated attacks. The Islamic State had gained prestige from its swift battlefield victories and its ability to control substantial territory and a sizeable population for a long period of time. It once had 6 to 10 million people under its control. It had attracted perhaps 30,000 people from more than 80 countries to join its Syrian and Iraqi adherents in battle.

Now about 45,000 Islamic State fighters have been killed in Iraq and Syria over the past two years. It has lost two-thirds of the territory it once held in Iraq. It can no longer get foreigners to fight in the battlefield. But Islamic State still needs to hit its enemies and show that it can conduct operations. So it has repeatedly urged its followers and sympathizers to take direct action in the West, to become ‘lone wolves’.

In December 2016 a man in Germany, whose asylum claim was rejected, drove a truck inside a market in Berlin killing 12 innocent people. Earlier, in July, 2016 a ‘lone wolf’ successfully drove a stolen truck through a Bastille Day Parade Nice and managed to kill 86 ‘non believers’. These strikes appear to have been inspired by the ISIS, if not directly executed by them. In 2014, the Chief Spokesman of the ISIS, Mohammed al-Adnani, issued a call to its sympathizers in the Europe to strike “unbelievers” wherever they can , particularly security officials, instead of travelling to Iraq and Syria.

The lone-wolf strategy is cheap and relatively easy. It does not require any planning, only a madness driven by ideological bigotry is sufficient. Second, the activities of lone wolves cannot be prevented, difficult to detect before the incident as they do not have any direct linkage to the ISIS. The mushrooming ISIS network in Europe does not get exposed or caught in this way as the individuals are getting the ‘inspiration’ from the social media. It must be acknowledged that the use of social media by ISIS has a wider reach and is much more pervasive than any other jihadi organization in recent times.

Third, ‘lone wolf’ attacks are damaging to a nation’s psychology and its leadership. It deeply divides the already disturbed social fabric, raising fear and hate within the society. Fourth, the proliferation of lone-wolf terrorism across the world demonstrates its reach and appeal. The ISIS’s only requirement is that the lone wolves leave a message either on Facebook or on Youtube before launching an attack, pledging allegiance to the group and to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. After 86 people were killed in the Nice truck attack in July 2016, the ISIS claimed that the assailant was acting “in response to calls to target nationals of the coalition which is fighting the Islamic State.”

Al Qaeda , all said and done, used to promote selective targeting in the service of a strategy that prioritizes dealing with the United States first. The ISIS, however, advocates extreme brutality against ‘disbelievers.’ It is comfortable with targeting Europeans, Shiites, and even other Sunni Muslims who refuse to accept its authority. It views all non-Muslims as legitimate targets and Muslim fatalities as acceptable collateral damage. As the violence and striking fear is the only goal, any attack by a ‘lone wolf’, whatever be the psychological makeup or behavior of that person , makes a significant contribution to ISIS propaganda.

The lone wolf attacks are on the rise as more individuals find ISIS’ goals attractive and legitimate. Such attacks, in tandem with the Islamic State’s own directed operations can inflict heavy human and economic costs and destabilize the western societies as a whole. The ISIS has believed in erasing the “gray zone”, i.e. creating a clear division between “friends” (Muslims) and “enemies” (non-Muslims). Unfortunately, the xenophobic and Islamophobic declarations of some irresponsible western populist leaders are only aiding to the ISIS’ cause. One such example is the ban on ‘burkini’ in few cities of France.

Just by acting suspicious or showing outright hostility towards Muslims does not mitigate the threat. It only strengthens it by breeding a sense of alienation and fueling radicalization. The result could be the erosion of the fabric of western societies and the weakening of their fundamental principles. The need of hour is to build an international coalition against this menace and unleash lethal counterattack on the perpetrators of such crime and their sympathizers who are hiding themselves amongst the civilized people.