New Delhi hosted the SAARC Summit meeting, and Musharraf was conspicuous by his absence. Whereas other nations were represented by their executive heads, Pakistan had opted to send their Prime Minister. Perhaps the Afghanistan angle and the internal turmoil were taking their toll on their military dictator who operates behind a thin facade of democracy.
The turmoil in Pakistan apart, the question which looms large before our policy makers is whether we have lost our focus and sense of direction in our Kashmir Policy? In a negative spiral of media-projected initiatives by Musharraf on Kashmir and desperate yet inadequate reactions from the Indian side, why are we on the appeasement mode on an issue which has vexed us since independence ? Are we on the brink of compromises which may invite regret? Are national interests supreme in our considerations or media-reported back – channel negotiations ? These are some of the questions which
One wonders whether these statements made by the Mirwaiz known to be a mouth-piece of Musharraf bear relevance especially in the light of the so-called “back-channel” negotiations which the nation is unaware of.need answers.
A few statements and actions appear to transcend the realm of logic. Mirwaiz Umar Farooq’s statement in the beginning of the year that the “next three months are crucial” to developments in Kashmir is perplexing to say the least. This was followed by a statement from Islamabad that “violence has only increased graves” One wonders whether these statements made by the Mirwaiz known to be a mouth-piece of Musharraf bear relevance especially in the light of the so-called “back-channel” negotiations which the nation is unaware of. To top it all our Prime Minister had to negate a statement by the Mirwaiz that India and Pakistan had already agreed to demilitarisation. Some references towards this angle have been reported recently by the Press to the extent that some sort of assurance/ understanding was reached between both the Prime Ministers of India & Pakistan. This is very surprising.
The Anti- Terror Mechanism between India and Pakistan, akin to these statements also appears to be a futile diplomatic exercise which is not backed by logic. With Pakistan having excluded Kashmir and Kashmir – related acts from its purview, this mechanism appears to be a waste of taxpayers’ money. What joint mechanism are we talking about when there is no trust and conducive environment prevalent between the two countries ? Seemingly, India has to refer to Page 303 of Musharraf’s memoir “In the Line of Fire” to improve relations. Are we operating on diplomacy through print and electronic media?
The problem between India and Pakistan comprises of historic, religious, ethnic, military, political, territorial and above all attitudinal issues of both countries. These cannot be wished away with opening of roads and rail-links and important anti-terror mechanisms. The state of mind of the population, the ‘psyche’ factor and leadership on both sides needs to be impacted if any meaningful movement towards resolution is to be achieved. One wonders why India is eager to appease Pakistan.
Cross-border terrorism” from Pakistan into Afghanistan has finally received attention from the USA, EU and the NATO as now American and European soldiers are dying in Afghanistan.
History has played its act decades ago and territory under India, Pakistan and China will continue to remain under the current custodians. It is undeniable that India cannot at this stage evict Pakistan from POK militarily. If that is the truth then why are we desperate to progress the peace initiative? To be good samaritans is one thing but to get cheated while dealing with Pakistan everytime, it is no diplomacy. In almost two decades of fighting a costly counter-terrorism war, the Security Forces have now gained the upper hand in J&K. Is this the hour to fritter away the advantages gained over terrorists by peace talks ?
Musharraf, no doubt has been pushed to a corner, externally and internally, Bush and Dick Cheney have conveyed it in no uncertain terms to clamp down on the Al-Qaeda and Taliban or else be prepared to lose the liberal economic support it enjoys. While $ 780 million has been announced by the USA for Pakistan, media reports speak of $4.2 billion having been paid to Pakistan as part of coalition support in the war on terror. It has also been indicated that the so-called turnaround of the Pak economy is largely backed by generous dollar support from the USA. With reverses in Iraq and the Taliban gearing up for a “spring offensive” in Afghanistan, America is no longer willing to let Musharraf hoodwink them with an occasional Taliban leader picked out from Safe houses in Quetta. Dick Cheney’s visit along with CIA’s Steve Caps, apparently displaying satellite images showing presence of Taliban/Al Qaeda camps on Pak soil has rattled Musharraf. USA is convinced that Osama Bin Laden and Ayman al Zawahiri are very much alive and hiding with Pak knowledge in the mountains stretching from Chitral to the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA).
“Cross-border terrorism” from Pakistan into Afghanistan has finally received attention from the USA, EU and the NATO as now American and European soldiers are dying in Afghanistan. Can Musharraf control the Taliban and Al Qaeda? Both outfits have strengthened their hold in FATA. Musharraf, to pacify his Army which suffered large number of casualties has negotiated a peace deal with the Taliban in South Waziristan. In the aftermath of the deal the Taliban has emerged stronger. USA has on number of occasions crossed over into Pakistani airspace and on Pak soil to deal with the Taliban, despite protests of violating Pak sovereignty.
In almost two decades of fighting a costly counter-terrorism war, the Security Forces have now gained the upper hand in J&K. Is this the hour to fritter away the advantages gained over terrorists by peace talks ?
Apart from international disapproval, Musharraf is in trouble internally. His dictatorial move against the Chief Justice and suppression of the media has highlighted that he is merely operating behind a thin democratic veil. Though he has apologised and managed to salvage the situation, his desperation is obvious. He is already worried about legitimising his election of President by the existing assemblies in November 2007 and at the same time ensuring that he remains the Army Chief. From 2002 till 2007 he has managed by a rigged referendum and a questionable Legal Framework Order. Apprehending that the Chief Justice could be an obstacle towards his goal, he tried commando tactics to oust him in a brazen manner sparking off unprecedented protests which has earned him the ire of the international community. He now appears to be re-orienting his strategy for the challenge that awaits him in November, 2007. Recently some sections of press have been reporting of some sort of understanding reached between Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto. Musharraf has denied this.
For Benazir it is political revival and thus Musharraf could retain his Presidency. Musharraf has always been willy and in case his fertile mind fails to conjure up a devious plan, the most obvious route of any Pak military dictator is always available to him. Impose an emergency and raise the bogey of a threat from India and under the cover from Kashmiri “freedom fighters” spark off another Kargil to divert attention. This is the sort of a ruler that India is dealing with. We should not forget that Musharraf is also controlling the ISI that has been tasked to balkanise India. The recent report published in the American Press is nothing new. Way back in the eighties, Indian Army had brought to the notice of the Government the fact that ISI had taken firm roots in the North Eastern Region. Under such environment when Musharraf is playing a double game, what is the logic of having round table Conference & scratching each other’s back when nothing worthwhile seems to be fructifying on the ground.
With all the peace talk and proposals Pakistan continues to upgrade its conventional arms capability cashing on the US funding”¦
In the given situation, how far can the peace-dialogue proceed. Musharraf’s “demilitarization” plan is mere euphemism for getting the Indian Army out of J&K to consolidate Jehadi control of J&K. “Joint Supervision” or “Joint Control” is a merely misleading terminology for diluting our sovereignty in J&K. Once agreed to, the Jehadi hordes would be converted into J&K police to ensure “Joint Control” and that would be the end of India’s control over J&K. Once weapon wielding police force is under Pakistani control any form of election, polls, referendum or plebiscite can be manipulated to Musharraf’s desired output. He has after all ensured five years of his presidency through a referendum conducted in Pakistan. Repeating a similar feat in J&K would be child’s play for such a manipulative dictator. It is surprising that we were offering Siachen as a “mountain of peace” to such a wily dictator who as a Brigadier behind an attack on Bila Fondla on the Saltoro Ridge (Siachen Glacier) in 1987 was beaten back by the Indian Army. Surely he is trying to achieve by diplomacy and ruse what four wars and the Siachen struggle could not achieve. With all the peace talk and proposals Pakistan continues to upgrade its conventional arms capability cashing on the US funding and arms supply which 9/11 opened up.
Dick Cheneys visit along with CIAs Steve Caps, apparently displaying satellite images showing presence of Taliban/Al Qaeda camps on Pak soil has rattled Musharraf. USA is convinced that Osama Bin Laden and Ayman al Zawahiri are very much alive and hiding with Pak knowledge in the mountains stretching from Chitral to the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA).
With all this in mind one is forced to ask the question whether we need fresh bearings – and a new sense of direction regarding India’s Kashmir policy. The Indian electorate should not be taken for granted. It can not be fooled by various slogans or gimmicks. If Kashmir is compromised without taking the Indian Nation into confidence, the nation will have to pay a very heavy price. The Indian stand has been clearly declared in the Parliament in 1989. Should there be any policy change the nation has a right to know? “back – channel diplomacy” will not be tolerated by the Nation for major policy changes.
We need to clearly reiterate internally across party lines what our Kashmir policy is so that we are not forced to react to a plethora of media-delivered proposals by Musharraf. We should be under no compulsion to appease Pakistan. Communication channels must be definitely kept open to avoid another Operation Parakram at great cost to the exchequer; however this must be done only to avoid a war so that it does not hinder our economic progress. We must continue to engage Pakistan but continue to upgrade our conventional and nuclear military power. Time has come when India has to prepare her Armed Forces to look after her interests. To achieve this, a serious thought needs to be given to equip the Services with cutting edge on a joint-manship platform. There is nothing superior to National Interests and these must be fulfilled for at all costs. Rs. 96,000 Crores is not enough to ensure that. With our impressive growth rate we should ensure that at least 3% of the GDP is allotted to our Armed Forces. On the Line of Control we must be prepared to adopt a proactive approach and keep “hot pursuit” options open with vertical envelopment capability through attack helicopters. Our J&K strategy should be based purely on national interests. For this we need to declare our National Strategy and a National Security Strategy; the latter will give directions formulating Army, Navy & Air Force Strategies. Presently, these are made independently based on the personality of the head of respective service.
If it is felt that the nation desires a changed stand on the Kashmir issue then we should try to gauge it’s will through a public debate on the subject. The facts should be well publicised and if required, despite the expense, India should go in for a referendum to determine what the people of this country desire regarding J&K. Which is not the personal property of any one. It is an integral part of India. The dictates of history and strategic blunders of 1947, 1965 and 1971 (when we had over 92,000 prisoners of war) may be difficult to alter under the present circumstances. Surely we can hold on to what we still have. If we can not, can we claim to be the emerging power we project ourselves to be, with ambitions of being a global power ? Surely it is time to check our compass or GPS (Global Positioning System) and confirm that we have our bearings right on our J&K policy. From the way we are drifting at present, I am compelled to ask the question “Have we lost our bearings regarding our Kashmir Policy? ”
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