Indian Defence Review

On 7 Oct 2023, Israel was woken up to one of the biggest shocks in their history. Before we go through the course of recent events it is essential to go into the origins of the Holy Land: All the Abrahamic religions have their claim to this holy land. British after the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire had the Levant mandated to them. The Arabs were ruling the entire region under the Ottoman Empire before the British.

Before that, the area had come under the Roman Empire and Christianity spread in the area. The Persians also held their sway over the area till they were replaced by the Greeks during the times of Alexander the Great. Even before that, the descendants of Abraham were enslaved by Egypt for centuries and the inhabitants carried out a mass exodus to Canaan the biblical land; the Levant.

Israeli and Philistinians (not Palestinians) had their kingdoms there and the Biblical history lends to the story of David of Israel killing the Philistinian Goliath in the duel. In the Second World War, Hitler gassed 6.5 million Jews to extinction. Imagine, such a xenophobic genocide could take place so recent in History appears unsustainable but sadly, it is the whole truth. People who were homeless for two thousand years at last got a nation in 1948. It was under a UN mandate and it was expected that the Palestinians and Jews would live in harmony.

Israel a Reality

Israel was formed on 14 May 1948. It was attacked by three Arab Nations to wipe it out the very next day of its existence. Israel with rudimentary forces prevailed. Thereafter wars were thrust on it in 1956, 1967, and 1973. The Arabs lost all the wars that they fought with Israel though the 1973 Yom Kippur War vindicated the fighting prowess of Arabs when Egypt crossed the Suez Canal and inflicted a surprise on the Israelis. However, the bridgehead made by Egypt was not sustainable. Though the Arabs lost the war it was an eye-opener to the Israelis that they cannot take the Arab military for granted and they need to work hard to survive as a ‘Jewish Oasis’ amidst a hostile Arab Desert.

When the Arab nations realised that Israel was a new reality and that too a permanent one; they started making overtures and establishing diplomatic relations with them. One to one, the diplomatic relations flourished though the OIC and Iran continued with their hostility to ensure its destruction. As of now, six Arab nations including Egypt, Jordan, UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco have diplomatic relations with Israel. Saudi Arabia and Israel have intelligence-sharing arrangements. Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq are the other Arab nations in the Middle East that do not have any diplomatic relations with Israel.

I will not go through the course of the previous wars as they were all one-sided; suffice to say Israel’s military-industrial complex, agriculture, armed forces, and economy ensured its survival and its Comprehensive National Power grew to a level that no Arab nation would ever think of waging a war against it. This confidence in themselves, probably made them complacent.

Hamas Attacks on 7 Oct 2023

On 7 Oct 2023, the shock that Israel faced was unfathomable. It was the least expected; so much so, that the Mossad and Shin Bet the famed intelligence organizations still do not have an answer as to how it could ever happen. They were formidable shields for the defence of Israel. The Hamas from the Gaza Strip infiltrated across the borders using ground/air/sea. An open music festival was attacked and more than 200 civilian corpses were recovered. A half-naked corpse of a German woman was paraded on the jeep with Hamas terrorists sitting on it. Children were also brutally slaughtered and more than 263 hostages were taken most of them of course were civilians. At the end of the deathly orgy of violence, more than 1200 dead bodies of Israelis were recovered. Many women were raped and killed or taken hostage. Dead bodies of children some not even a year old were found in macabre condition.

Who attacked Israel on 7 Oct 2023. Was it Palestinians? NO. Who is getting killed after that date? Palestinians. Who initiated the conflict? Hamas. What mandate do they have on Palestine? Nil. Were the Hamas fighting for the Palestinian cause? No, they were fighting for their ideology. What was the Ideology? It was a ‘Jihad’ to exterminate the nation of Israel. Didn’t the Hamas know the repercussions and Israel’s expected military response? Yes, they knew it. Didn’t they know that the victims would be innocent Palestinians? Yes; they knew it; rather they wanted it as they have no love lost for the Palestinian civilians. Remember the interview on Memri TV on 30 Oct 2023; Hamas official Mousa Abu Marzouk said that the tunnels have been constructed for the protection of Hamas. The safety of the Gazans is the responsibility of the UN and Israel. Now the question arises as to who represents the people of Gaza?

Legitimacy of Palestinian Leadership

Who represents Palestine? The last Presidential elections were held in 2005 and Parliamentary elections were held in 2006. In the latter, the Hamas gained more seats and established their government in Gaza. Fatah under Mohd Abbas established their government in the West Bank. Though Mohd Abbas is considered the President of the Palestine Authority with his government in Ramallah in the West Bank, his writ only runs in the West Bank and Not in Gaza. No elections have been held since then either in Gaza or in the West Bank.

Though Hamas had indicated to join the election fray the intransigence of President Mohd Abbas who was facing dissension with the differences in Fatah made him diffident to contest elections. If no elections have been held since 2005/6 then neither the Fatah in the West Bank nor Hamas in Gaza have the mandate to represent the people of Palestine. The lack of a Unity Government between the two wings of Palestine is the first obstacle to representing their cause.

Hence the two-state solution which everyone has put his bet on is a non-starter as practically three states exist. The innocent Palestinian civilians will continue to suffer as there is no one to represent them. They neither have a government nor leaders who have secured a mandate to represent them.

The Plight of Gazans

Now, let us take our attention to Israel. A race that was hounded for more than two millenniums got their homeland in 1948. Several wars were waged to exterminate it but failed. Now, Israel is a reality to the Arabs, Hamas, Fatah, the Palestinian people, and the rest of the world. What next? Will or will not Israelis fight tooth and nail against any existential threat to their nation? What should Israel do? Acquiesce and become homeless people again because Hamas does not want them? Will they not deracinate Hamas from Gaza? What would any country do if there is an existential threat to their country?

Will the Presidents of the Universities of Howard, MIT, and Pennsylvania also respond? Will those 120 and 143 countries in the two UNGA meetings who called for a cease-fire in Gaza without even condemning the attack by Hamas on 7 Oct 2023 respond? Why the world is not taking into cognizance that the entire offensive was started by Hamas who do not represent anyone except their belief in Jihad. Why are we not distinguishing Hamas from Palestinians? They are not the same. Hamas is a terrorist organization. We should support Palestine but not Hamas.

Next, I am not condoning more than 18000 casualties and still counting caused by Israeli air and ground offensives in Gaza. The labyrinthine network of tunnels of Hamas is right under the civilian habitations crisscrossing hospitals, schools, and residential areas. How in the world can one carry out operations underground without venturing overground into these areas? Even if a ceasefire is made effective will any country in the world guarantee the security of Israel? The Gazans very well knew that the Hamas would put them in danger. Why did they not alert the world and protest the designs of Hamas? Why did they lend them tacit and sometimes active support and then play a victim card which, they could have very well pre-empted and prevented?

Israel’s warning that Northern Gaza should be vacated and subsequently continuing their operations in South Gaza with a similar warning is ludicrous. How can any country evacuate 2.3 million people from Gaza? The density of the Gaza Strip is one of the highest in the world; 6500 per sq. km. Population growth is 1.99 percent, and unemployment is 46 percent. Where do they go from there? Nearly 1,50,000 Gazans work in Israel on work permits. It has stopped after the Hamas Offensive on 7 Oct 2023. With no place for the Gazans to go, they are being pounded day and night by Israel in their quest to hound out Hamas. Even going to the West Bank is not an option as they must go through Israel to reach the West Bank. Even 80 percent of the West Bank is under Israeli military control.

The question lies unanswered as to where should Gazans go. Which Islamic countries are ready to accept them? Egypt has unequivocally announced that there is no place for the Palestinian refugees in the Sinai Desert. Not one of the Arab nations or any of the 56 Islamic countries is ready to accept the Palestinian refugees. I do not find the brotherhood of ‘Ummah’ transcending across political frontiers. Europe is reeling with refugees from the Middle East and many countries are on the verge of losing their civilizational identity. Just heard the Italian PM saying the same today.

The only answer for the Gazans is that they continue to get killed till all the Hamas surrender or are wiped out by the Israelis. It is going to take time and the world will have to watch helplessly their slaughter in the coming days. It is pathetic to see the people of Gaza await the relief trucks and people scamper to get their aid. My heart goes out to those people. The world must see that people do not go hungry and homeless in Gaza.

The saddest thing in the world is to see corpses of children lying around. Remember the body of a Syrian toddler on a Turkish beach in 2015 that shook the world. Any child whether it is from Gaza or Israel if killed shows that humanity is at its civilizational nadir. How can anyone accept over 18000 deaths in Gaza? Who has the blood on their hands?

Politics of Palestine

Israel alone cannot be blamed for the present situation; had the Arab nations not waged wars against Israel since 1948 the entire West Bank and Gaza Strip would have continued to be with Palestine. The historical landscape has turned, tossed, twisted, gnarled, and concocted several times due to shenanigans by several countries all of which have blood on their hands. The landscape has been further subsumed by religious paradigms; I cannot see the end to this conflict till the Hamas are wiped out. Again, even if Israel destroys Hamas physically how can it destroy the idea of ‘Hamas’? Will it not sprout again in the poverty, squalor, and economic deprivation in the cramped inhuman conditions in Gaza? Will Israel tolerate such acts again after what it saw on 7 Oct 2023 and its aftermath?

Do you think even if the entire Gaza is given back to Palestinian Authorities, it has the power to establish a clean administration and law and order in the Gaza Strip? Won’t Hamas rise its head again? Hence, where do we go from here? Can Gaza and the West Bank be politically integrated into one nation? If it was so; would not Mohd Abbas have prevented the Hamas Offensive on 7 Oct 2023 or was he complicit in the entire offensive?

The fact is that Gaza and the West Bank were functioning as two separate states with the Palestinian Authority having no knowledge of the happenings in Gaza. The entire funding that Qatar and other Arab Nations gave for the development of Gaza was used for tunnelling, procuring weapons, and establishing manufacturing facilities for weapons and ammunition. How can the world trust Hamas that yet another Oct 7 would not be repeated? How and when can the people of Gaza would ever come out of their poverty and deprivation? What are the possible solutions?

One State Solution

In this proposal, the entire Gaza, and all lands West of the Jordan River up to the Mediterranean Sea are made into one state where both Jews and Palestinians live in harmony. Though it is the easiest solution conceptually the contradictions in both religions and attitudes render it impractical. This solution has not been touted politically by any country. The concept of Jewish Homeland will not be addressed in this solution.

Two-State Solution

The ‘Two State Solution’ is the most popular solution among the international community. However, it is paradoxical as there are three entities; Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank with no land and sea connectivity between the last two. The negotiations on borders will be a non-starter as Israel will not go beyond ‘Post 1967 War Borders’. Any earlier version of the border will be considered by Israel as dangerous to its very existence. Their concerns have been validated by the recent Hamas attacks. It has hardened the Israeli stand that any withdrawal from its occupied areas will pose an existential threat to them. Hence, the two-state solution looks good diplomatically but has gone beyond the realm of practicality.

As of now, it is a ‘Two State Solution’ where the Palestinian Authorities technically have Gaza and the West Bank under them. However, practically Hamas is in control of Gaza and Fatah in the West Bank. In 2014 when the so-called Unity Government was formed in Palestine it did not have any representation from the Hamas. The ideologies of Hamas and Fatah are irreconcilable as the former does not recognize the existence of Israel and claims that the entire land belongs to Arabs. There is no free movement between the Gazans to the West Bank and vice versa as they need to cross Israeli territory. President Abbas was equally surprised as Israel, and the rest of the world when the Hamas attacked on 7 Oct 2023. Was not President Abbas aware of the network of over 30 underground tunnels constructed by Hamas?

All the resources for the development of Gaza were spent on the construction of tunnels. Though, it is superficially two states now in practice there exists two Palestinian states and one Jewish state of Israel. If that is so; why should we not offer a ‘Three States Solution’?

‘Arab Barometer’ an organization that conducts public opinion polls surveyed in the last week of Nov 23; shows that only 10 percent of the population in Gaza and the West Bank feel that the Hamas carried out war crimes on 7 Oct 2023. An overwhelming 88 percent wanted President Abbas to resign. The popularity of Hamas has increased not only in the West Bank but also in Gaza despite the destruction and miseries they are facing. Where do we go from here?

Three-State Solution

A ‘Three-state solution’ is that Palestine Gaza, Israel, and Palestine West Bank be as three separate states. After 25 years, an UN-mandated plebiscite should be held asking the people of two Palestines their wish to be one nation or remain separate.

Concept of Settled Population. All settled populations of Jews and Arabs wherever they are staying will not be disturbed and will continue to stay in their respective areas irrespective of agreed political boundaries.

The security and integrity of Israel must be assured. It can only be done if Israel has its observers in Gaza till the final reconstruction of Gaza and the resettlement of refugees.

A UN Commission should be positioned in Gaza for Reconstruction and Rehabilitation. An internationally contributed UN Fund must be provided for the purpose.

Two wings of Palestine must be made as prosperous as other Arab Countries around it. The world should pitch in its resources to achieve this end.

As the Gaza Strip and the West Bank are separated by Israeli territory a safe and monitored corridor should be guaranteed to the Palestinians to enable movements between the two parts.

In the second phase, all the refugees return to their reconstructed habitation. It is essential in this phase; Gaza should have a stable economy and should be able to generate resources for administration and create avenues for employment. An economically deprived Gaza would again relapse into terrorism if its youth are not usefully employed and their livelihood is not assured.

In the third phase, separate elections should be held in both Gaza and the West Bank where all political parties should recognise the existence of Israel. After the government formation, the UN Commission should transfer the administration to the new government in Gaza.

Israel should vacate occupied areas of Palestine Gaza, and Palestine West Bank and have a treaty that their lands will not be used for terrorist activities. Depending on trust levels between Israel and Palestine, observers could be positioned in each other’s countries for a mutually agreed duration.

Lastly, after 25 years an UN-mandated plebiscite should be held seeking the wishes of the people of both Gaza and the West Bank for a Unified Palestine.

What should India do?

India should immediately declare Hamas as a Terrorist Organisation. We should be able to distinguish between Hamas and Palestinians.

India should recognize the right of Israel to defend itself against terrorist acts perpetuated from the territories of Gaza and the West Bank.

India should call for a ceasefire as any country cannot be given a cart blanch to kill over 18000 Palestinians and displace two million humanity who have become unwitting victims of the war. Israel should devise a non-lethal strategy to achieve its purpose of eliminating Hamas while protecting the civil population of the Gaza Strip.

Conclusion

The ‘Three-State Solution’ will meet the aspirations of both Palestine Gaza and Palestine West Bank.

Israel will have an assurance of secure borders as its observers will be stationed in both Gaza and the West Bank even after their withdrawal from the occupied territories.

The two Palestinian states of Gaza and the West Bank will have the option to join in the future once their reconstruction and rehabilitation is complete.

The world cannot remain spectators to the gory war and needs to ensure that the root cause of the war is removed by developing Palestine to ensure its stable economy and development.