Indian Defence Review

While the action, under the circumstances, was absolutely right, it is more important now to remain vigilant not only by the military establishment, but also by each and every individual living in the country as the Pakistani Army, in the garb of or through the terrorists, will certainly strike. What will be their target? Nobody knows; but it is quite possible that the target may not be a hardened one like a well guarded military base or establishment. Knowing the modus operandi adopted by the terrorists in the past from Mumbai to Malegaon and Delhi to Doda one is quite certain that a soft target like a population centre, crowded place like a shopping mall or railway station or an unguarded civil installation – private or public – may be attacked.

As is usual during this time of the year, Pakistan will continue to activate the LC regularly with the aim of pushing as many terrorists inside India as possible before the winters set in. As a matter of fact, Uri has been an extension of this design of the Pakistan army/terrorists. In this process, skirmishes between the two sides will continue to take place frequently and both will suffer loss of security personnel and people living in the border areas.

The media and some of the hawks on various TV channels have been propagating that now that the ice has been broken and India has decided to strike back if it is hit, every future militants action must be replied with a similar response. Quite a large number of them are in favour of an all out war with Pakistan. Such a course of action, if implemented, will not only result in large scale devastation of men and material, but also cause a serious dent in the economic progress of the country. It will, therefore, be fool hardy to adopt this option.

It may be beneficial, instead, to remain vigilant, improve our intelligence gathering apparatus, introduce larger quantum of latest technologically advanced equipment in our inventory to keep a vigil on the activities of the Pakistan army and her terrorist infrastructure and periodically strike at a time and place of our choosing, if Pakistan continues with her terrorist designs unabated. At the same time, the political establishment must try to diffuse tempers within J & K and reach out to people to find a lasting solution to the worsening situation there. It will not be possible to do it overnight and may take years to achieve, but a sincere beginning has to be made to thwart the designs of our adversary and integrate the Kashmiris into the mainstream.

While diplomatic isolation of Pakistan would pay good dividends in curbing the menace of terrorism, it is unlikely to be fully achievable as the two big powers that matter in today’s international environment – the US and China – are not willing to put requisite pressure on Pakistan for their own vested interests.

USA needs Pakistan to sustain their forces in Afghanistan and to ensure that it has permanent presence in the region to keep a watch on the Central Asian Republics, China and Russia, whereas Chinese long term economic aspirations are tied to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

Without the support of both of them, Pakistan cannot be isolated and Pakistan knows this reality too well. Any amount of our cozying up with USA has not yielded any favourable results in this regard, yet we must continue to work in this direction. The Prime Minister’s efforts over last two years in achieving diplomatic isolation of Pakistan have paid good dividend as is evident from the countries which have supported India in boycotting the SAARC summit which was to be held in Pakistan in November 2016 and the way USA, the European Union and host of other countries have condemned Pakistan’s adventurism in Uri. At the same time, India’s response to the Uri attack has been regarded as justifiable for a nation which has been on the receiving end of terrorism for far too long.

Will the Uri attack and consequent surgical strike by the Indian Army be considered a quid pro quo and further attacks on each other cease to take place? It is extremely unlikely as our past experience tells us that silence on the part of Pakistan is generally only a temporary halt in cessation of hostilities, primarily to buy time and prepare for the next, more serious, strike. Every citizen, and not the security forces alone, of the country needs to remain vigilant. Let no one be fooled by any actions or overtures that she may be making at the moment. It has been reported that the NSAs of both India and Pakistan have had a dialogue and promised to ease the tension on the borders. At the same time, Pakistan has been in denial mode regarding the surgical strike executed by the Indian Army. Why should Pakistan be tense, if it is really so?

The Indian Govt’s plans to vacate over 1000 border villages in Punjab and almost similar number in J & K send out a clear signal to Pakistan that India means business and would not hesitate, if war was thrust upon her. People’s response in this regard has been heartening as many of them have stayed on to help out its armed forces in time of crisis. Moreover, it is the harvesting time on both sides of the border and any escalation of the situation would cost both heavily. People also possibly know that a conflict situation would take time to reach a crescendo by which time they would have harvested their crops. The situation, as yet, hasn’t reached point. The need of the hour, therefore, is to act sensibly and ensure that both Govts return to normalcy rather than escalate the tensions.

Pakistan’s nuclear bluff was aptly exposed by our former Prime Minister, Mr Atal Bihari Vajpayee, and we need not worry too much about it. If we suffer huge damage in a nuclear exchange, Pakistan would cease to exist on the planet. To avert ‘Mutual Assured Destruction’ is in the interest of all nations and it is certain that USA and China would also like to ward it off, even though they may not be interested in preventing Pakistan as an exporter of terrorism.

Pakistan has chosen to conduct war by use of terrorists, who are totally dispensable for her. It does not matter to her whether they are killed in her own territory or across the LC/IB. However, our each and every person, whether uniformed or civilian, is precious to us and we cannot afford to lose them. War between the militaries of the two nations must, therefore, be avoided. At the same time, we must make every endeavour to strengthen our economy and build bridges with other nations to blunt Pakistan through means other than military. We must use our economic strength to include trade, investment, energy and defence industry as tools to win diplomatic allies, punish adversaries, and coerce those in between. Till this objective is achieved, we may have to pay back the mischief mongers by paying them back in their own currency.