Under no circumstances Pakistan will ever allow the Quetta Shura led Taliban an upper hand in the affairs of Afghanistan. It comes as little surprise to witness the return of Taliban fighters back to base, leaving the Panjshir frontline to Haqqani supported by Pakistan assisted airstrikes. It is alleged that complete operation of retaking of Panjshir was supervised by non-other than Pakistan’s notorious Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency chief General Faiz Hameed.
It was in early 2021 that India and Pakistan agreed to a ceasefire on the Line of Control that came into effect from midnight 24/25 February. The two arch enemies with contesting claims over Jammu and Kashmir have been in a state of war ever since their independence in 1947 from Britain.
Indians learnt of this peace initiative only when the ceasefire was announced stating that this was put into effect after a telephone call from the Pakistani DGMO to his counterpart in India. There were voices raised in both the Indian and the Pakistani parliament that this was a US brokered ceasefire, a claim denied by the Indian government.
In fact, at this juncture it may have appeared to be an innocent and a straightforward peace initiative. But later a few may argue it to be a part of the larger milieu facilitating US withdrawal from Afghanistan. No wonder India has maintained a total silence over the evolving situation in Afghanistan. But that may not be totally correct.
It was exactly a year before in 2020 at Doha, Qatar when a peace deal was signed between the US and the Taliban, this process of withdrawal was put in motion. US president Donald Trump announced that the US and the Taliban have signed an “agreement for bringing peace” to Afghanistan after more than 18 years of conflict. The US and NATO allies have agreed to withdraw all troops within 14 months if the militants uphold the deal. President Trump said it had been a “long and hard journey” in Afghanistan. “It’s time after all these years to bring our people back home,” he said. The US relied upon Pakistan to make it realise its desire of getting their people back home. Islamabad not only brought Taliban to table but as it appears, they even rendered their army’s institutional support in operational and logistic execution of offensive. This lead to a spectacular victory of Taliban on Aug 15 over Kabul.
Iran on 6 Sep 21, “strongly” condemned the Taliban’s military offensive against holdout fighters in Afghanistan’s Panjshir Valley, as the Taliban claimed it had taken control of the area.
Going back to February 29, 2020, the United States and the Taliban had signed a peace agreement in Doha, Qatar, officially titled the Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan known also as Doha Agreement. The provisions of the deal include the withdrawal of all American and NATO troops from Afghanistan, a Taliban pledge to prevent al-Qaeda from operating in areas under Taliban control, and talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government. The United States agreed to an initial reduction of its force level from 13,000 to 8,600 by July 2020, followed by a full withdrawal within 14 months if the Taliban keeps its commitments. The United States also committed to closing five military bases within 135 days, and expressed its intent to end economic sanctions on the Taliban by August 27, 2020.
The deal was supported by China, Russia and Pakistan and unanimously endorsed by the UN Security Council, although it did not involve the government of Afghanistan. In other words this was not a peace deal but a surrender deal. The fate of Afghan government and those who supported it had been sealed. It was just a matter of time that this tragedy was to unfold. And it did, following the overnight abandonment Baghram air base.
As the story changes by the minute, situation is extremely fluid in Afghanistan. Taliban is reportedly not in good terms with the Haqqani group and Mullah Yakoob. That’s precisely the reason why ISI chief, Lt Gen Faiz Hameed made a dash to Kabul.
In all this shemozzle, Taliban had been making a number of gestures wooing the Indians to their side. The debate in India had already started on whether, India should talk to Taliban or refrain itself from being seen as giving acceptance to these global outcasts? As this debate was ragging, on Aug 31, India announced its diplomatic meeting with the Taliban at Doha, — their first official talks since the group seized power in Afghanistan as the U.S. withdrew its forces from there.
The Indian foreign ministry said India’s ambassador to Qatar, Deepak Mittal, met with the head of the Taliban’s political office, Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai. The Taliban had requested the meeting, which took place at the Indian embassy in Doha, according to the ministry.
Mittal and Stanikzai discussed the safety, security and early return of Indian nationals who are stranded in Afghanistan as well as travel prospects for Afghan minorities who want to visit India, the Ministry of External Affairs said.
The Indian ambassador also raised New Delhi’s concerns around Afghanistan being used as a base for terrorism.
All these friendly gestures from Taliban towards India makes Pakistan nervous and infurated. Afterall it is the fear of this closeness between the Afghan people and India that has kept Pakistan in a perpetual devious mode.
The Taliban’s outreach to Turkey is thought to be an attempt to stop the new regime from becoming isolated and sanctioned by the international community.
Under no circumstances Pakistan will ever allow the Quetta Shura led Taliban an upper hand in the affairs of Afghanistan. It comes as little surprise to witness the return of Taliban fighters back to base, leaving the Panjshir frontline to Haqqani supported by Pakistan assisted airstrikes. It is alleged that complete operation of retaking of Panjshir was supervised by non-other than Pakistan’s notorious Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency chief General Faiz Hameed.
Lieutenant General Faiz Hameed, flew to Kabul on 4 Sep, as the Taliban failed to form a government nearly three weeks after the fall of Kabul. While there were no official details of the purpose of Hameed’s visit, it sparked reports that the ISI chief was in Afghanistan to help the Taliban form a government and provide guidance as the hard-line Islamist group battles anti-Taliban resistance fighters in the Panjshir Valley, north of Kabul.
Panjshir fell to the ISI backed terrorists on the 06th Sep 21, just three days short of the twentieth death anniversary of Ahmed Shah Massod, popular as the lion of Panjshir.
He was assassinated by Al Qaeda on 09 Sep 2001 at Takhar. But this war is still far from over, defiant Ahmed Massod, son of legendary Ahmed Shah Massod pledges for the resistance to continue.
Iran on 6 Sep 21, “strongly” condemned the Taliban’s military offensive against holdout fighters in Afghanistan’s Panjshir Valley, as the Taliban claimed it had taken control of the area. This is the first signal to suggest that all may not be well between Theran and Kabul as perceived earlier.
“The news coming from Panjshir is truly worrying,” Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Saeed Khatibzadeh expressed Iran’s anguish. “The assault is strongly condemned”, he added.
Iran, the region’s dominant Muslim Shiite power, had until now refrained from criticising the Taliban since the Sunni group seized Kabul on August 15.
Iran had welcomed the departure of U.S. forces and pledged to work with the Taliban government. New Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi had said, “America’s military defeat must become an opportunity to restore life, security, and durable peace in Afghanistan.”
But the collapse of the Afghan government came at a time when the Iranian political system was in transition, with Raisi was in the process of taking over the presidency. Thus, most of the domestic attention was focused on cabinet selection and the confirmation process for ministers. Surging COVID-19 infections in Iran have also overshadowed the situation in Afghanistan.
It’s also worth noting that during the post-2001 insurgency, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was active in Afghanistan. By 2013, it was recruiting tens of thousands of Afghans to serve in one of the militias it used in Syria. It is quiet clear that Iran will not be able to continue recruiting Afghans for its various militias under the new Sunni Taliban reign.
But Iran’s worry is different. The Sunni Taliban are no longer just a guerrilla force; they now rule the country. There is real threat from an offshoot of the self-proclaimed Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K), an ultra Islamist Sunni group, operating in Afghanistan. It is not a hidden secret anymore that IS-K is also the handiwork of Pakistan’s notorious ISI. Having a radicalised Sunni majority in Pakistan who now controls Afghanistan through their Sunni proxies along with IS-K makes the Iranian eastern flank highly insecure. And, if Afghanistan attracts similar sunni terrorist groups, that would raise serious concerns in Iran.
“It was ISI who with the help of Americans defeated the Soviets from Afghanistan and now ISI with the help of Americans will defeat the America in Afghanistan”.
Instability in Afghanistan, with raging conflict among its various factions, and Sunni terror organisations backed by Pakistan, in all present Iran with a strategic problem that it likely did not anticipate. The new Iranian government was already dealing with a struggling economy and a third wave of COVID-19 infections. Now it faces unpredictability on its eastern front. But now with the strong statement coming out of Iran suggests the realisation of the danger present.
Up North, Tajikistan has been open about its preferences in Afghanistan, namely, the formation of a government that is not monopolized by the Taliban and that represents Afghanistan’s Tajik population. On August 25, Tajik president said that he would reject an Afghan government “created by humiliation and ignoring the interests of the people of Afghanistan as a whole, including those of ethnic minorities, such as Tajiks, Uzbeks and others.” This contrasts sharply with Russia’s Vladimir Putin, who commented on August 20 that the Taliban takeover is a reality from which external actors must proceed in Afghanistan. Turkmenistan, for its part, has reportedly engaged the Taliban in dialogue to protect its border, however, Uzbekistan has mostly followed the pragmatic line of the Russian led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) — notably, an alliance Tashkent is not a member of.
Tajikistan’s long-time ruler Emomali Rahmon diverged from his Central Asian partners and treaty allies to signal opposition to the Taliban takeover and expressed sharper concern about the presence of international terrorist groups in Afghanistan.
A day after the reported takeover of Panjshir by Haqqani group of Taliban supported by Pakistani military and the ISI, there are reports that fighter aircrafts of the erstwhile Afghan regime that had escaped over to Tajikistan have attacked Taliban positions in Panjshir. Thus adding to the constantly evolving situation in Afghanistan.
On the other hand, China has been reiterating the point of the Taliban taking a ‘clean break’ from terrorism and form an open and inclusive government that follows moderate policies to get international recognition. China is seeing the Taliban takeover as Afghanistan’s break-free moment from foreign military intervention. “facts show that in realising economic development we need an open inclusive political structure, implementation of moderate foreign and domestic policies and clean break from terrorist groups in all forms,” Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said earlier.
Pakistan, China and Russia have indicated in recent weeks that they would not support US efforts to put pressure on the Taliban by withholding recognition, threatening sanctions or restricting aid. “It is necessary for the international community to engage with the Taliban and actively provide them with guidance,” Geng Shuang, a senior Chinese diplomat, told the UN Security Council on August 30.
Pakistan, too, has called on the West to engage with the new Taliban rulers and help them rebuild Afghanistan.
US officials accuse Pakistan’s intelligence services of supporting the Taliban – charges that Islamabad denies.
This evolving situation in Afghanistan could also have a bearing on the geopolitics of the middle east. Hence, Doha’s ambitions go beyond just helping the US, in facilitating talks with Taliban and subsequently assist them in evacuation from Kabul. Qatar aims to be seen as a mediator for all those who aim to engage the Taliban, and it has certainly done so in the past few weeks. But Qatar also needs to balance this role with its fragile relations with other Arab countries in the region. Qatar risks being seen as closely affiliated with the Taliban, which would be seen as a problem by the Saudi and her allies. Given that it is already perceived as too close to Islamist groups in the region. Qatar will have to manage this mediation position carefully.
The last time the Taliban ruled Afghanistan, from 1996 to 2001, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Pakistan were the only countries to recognise its government. Saudi Arabia had played an important role in the Islamist group’s creation, since for years it funded the madrassas in Pakistan from which the Taliban emerged.
But the relationship with the Taliban fell apart after the September 11 attacks in the United States, carried out by al Qaeda.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE, along with Egypt and Bahrain, increasingly viewed extremist Islamist groups as a threat and accused Qatar of supporting terrorism. They cut off diplomatic ties with Qatar in 2017 over its relations with the Shiite powerhouse Iran and with Islamist groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood. The crisis was resolved in January 2020 with the help of Kuwait and the US.
Another important player in this crisis is Turkey. The Taliban’s outreach to Turkey is thought to be an attempt to stop the new regime from becoming isolated and sanctioned by the international community. Having control of the airport could open economic relations with the Taliban for Turkey and allow cheap Turkish goods to flood the Afghan market, while providing opportunities for AKP aligned Turkish construction firms to rebuild the war-torn country. Controlling the airport allows Turkey to regulate what comes in and out of Afghanistan in terms of aid. It may also provide a leverage point to bring it back into the Biden administration’s good graces.
As all this is being played out; India carefully waits and continues to watch the evolving situation.
In the meanwhile, security adviser and top spy chiefs of Russia, the UK and the US have made a beeline for India to discuss the situation in Afghanistan following the Taliban’s takeover in Kabul bearing severe implications for regional security. Incidentally these are the same countries who never allowed India to sit on the negotiating table with Taliban and other regional players prior to Aug 15, 2021.
While it may widely be perceived to be the developments in Afghanistan, and the possible spill over of terrorism from Afghan soil, as the key topics of discussion in the meetings with the MI6 and CIA chiefs and the Russian security official. The fact remains that entry of China on the stage of this great game makes India a leading contender as a frontline state in the decade ahead. Also to take note is the fact that it is India that shares good relations with all the countries having common Afghanistan concerns. The countries Like the US, the UK, Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the Central Asian Republics do have differences amongst themselves. However it is India that shares good relation with all these countries. So it is India’s turn to play a major role without committing troops on ground in containing terrorism emanating from Afghanistan and also checking the hegemonic China in Asia’s heart. In short India could work as a bridge between countries sharing common security concerns and help synergise efforts to this effect.
The illusive peace in Afghanistan is far beyond the horizon. Ethnic and tribal divide being exploited by Pakistan for its strategic depth is in fact the preliminary preparation for a new graveyard in this century old great game.
It is worth recalling the famous lines by the erstwhile ISI chief, General Hamid Gul who had casually mentioned that, “It was ISI who with the help of Americans defeated the Soviets from Afghanistan and now ISI with the help of Americans will defeat the America in Afghanistan”. Who knows, as the things pan out in days that lie ahead, it may well be said that America with help of ISI defeated Pakistan. Lets not forget that the US made a deal with Taliban facilitated by ISI, and today Taliban are in power in Afghanistan. Their offshoot Tahreek-e-Taliban-Pakistan has already started to make its presence felt inside Pakistan.
For India it is in the best interest to wait and watch. India’s sway beyond Hindu Kush depends upon this very strategic patience.
Please wait...
