Indian Defence Review

An equidistant map of the world centered on Delhi. Showing true bearings and distance from Delhi. Scale 1 : 45 5 00 000, Projection: Lambert Azimuthal Equidistant (Oblique Aspect), Origin: Delhi, Latitude 28°35’N, Longitude 77°13’E. Read off the value on the graduated circle to get the true bearing to the nearest degree, of well known places radially from Delhi. Examples: True bearings from Delhi to San Francisco, Tokyo, Cape Town and Moscow are 015°, 065°, 226°, and 325°, respectively. Excerpted from: Transition to Guardianship: The Indian Navy 1991-2000

There is no doubt that India will have to change; literally pull itself up by its boot laces. A changed India would imply transformation in the way things function in this country. It will imply accountability of those in authority; transparency in all functions of the government; on time delivery; a great measure of responsibility by those in authority and answerability for failure in providing service. Finally, it will imply the demolition of the VIP culture and the ushering in of a consultative format by the people’s representatives for inclusion of the voters in the national decision making process.

The last quarter of the year 2014 has been a packed calendar crowded with events that have had the Foreign Ministry’s hands full and the Home Ministry on its toes. Whether it was the string of visits by foreign heads of states or foreign visits by the Prime Minister and the Foreign Minister, these span across an impressive array of countries and an equally impressive range of important issues. Issues that could be given fresh impetus or ratcheted up in scale and speed. India has emerged like the proverbial prospective bride being wooed by a string of suitors.

A few years ago, around 2002, a group of scholars from the US had undertaken a study on the broad spectrum strategic development profiles of India and China which was later published as a book – India China Relationship: What the United States Needs to Know (Edited by Francine Frankel and Harry Harding). They presented their draft paper and their conclusions to a group in New Delhi.

During a break in the session, in conversation with the study group leader Francine Frankel, the issue of India’s development came up. She questioned as to what were the manifestations on ground that would indicate the rapid pace of India’s development or the parameters by which one can gauge that India was on the path to becoming a power? While the embarrassing truth was that our growth parameters, infrastructure, communications…you name it, were far from that expected of a global power, being a hard core optimist, I ventured to say that we, in India believe in destiny and we collectively feel we are somehow destined to be a global power.

There is no doubt that India will have to change; literally pull itself up by its boot laces. A changed India would imply transformation in the way things function in this country. It will imply accountability of those in authority; transparency in all functions of the government; on time delivery; a great measure of responsibility by those in authority and answerability for failure in providing service. Finally, it will imply the demolition of the VIP culture and the ushering in of a consultative format by the people’s representatives for inclusion of the voters in the national decision making process.

Change will also imply that the government is there to govern and provide service to the voter and not the other way round. The current generation of those in power will resist such drastic changes to sweep them off out of their comfort zones. The truth is that those who enjoyed government patronage all these years will not accept a change in status quo. For a detached observer, Lutyens’ Delhi where the oligarchs in control of the political, bureaucratic, economic domains reside, is the “graveyard” of a socialist participative democracy. It is here where the culture of exclusivity is bred. It is here that egos get bloated and give rise to the feeling of being ‘more equal’ than others; it is here that demanding of exclusive rights to commandeer national resources for personal gains and requirements becomes the norm.

In reviewing the recent leaps that India has made in the international arena, there are a number of these that require deft diplomatic pirouette. Significant among them is the balancing of relations with Japan without it appearing to be directed against China. Similarly, India’s relations with Vietnam have their own strategic content and cannot be subservient to Chinese whims. There is need to retain India’s sovereignty in fleshing out of its numerous bilateral relations.

India’s relations with the US should be developed to suit the former’s interests as against the any deep pacific desire to appease any other country. The confidence displayed by this government in hosting the Russian President in New Delhi alongside extending an invitation to the US President to be the chief guest at the Republic Day Parade and allied functions, is indeed laudable.

It’s a fact that India’s neighbours have been drifting away from it over the last decade and a half due to its lackadaisical attitude and lacklustre foreign policy. In pursuing their own respective national interests, these countries had deemed it necessary to balance India by a robust strategic relationship with China. Therefore, being paranoid, with regard to the presence of China in these countries, is uncalled for. As the Sri Lankan President succulently put it, “India is our relative and China is our friend.” The new regime under Mr Sirisena which has recently been elected is making amends for a China bias – “We consider China a good friend; it just happens that many of these projects in question happened to be Chinese. We will have a balanced approach between India and China, unlike the current regime, which was antagonizing India almost by its closeness to China.” This appropriately describes the desire of these countries to put their interests foremost without antagonising either India or China.

However, India’s reaction need not be hegemonic, as if protecting its turf, questioning these countries of their motives and intentions. Security is synonymous with hard power. Hard power relates to armed forces, weapons, warlike stores and equipment. India has been reluctant to supply arms, munitions and warlike stores to any nation due to its fundamental belief in non-violence and non-interference. However, India’s neighbours have felt that to secure their own interests they needed an armed force and since India was reluctant to supply warlike hardware to them, they approached the next country that would do so, with no strings attached, and for that, China was the country fitting the bill perfectly.

Some of the global issues that will demand action by India are the ISIS crisis, the Ukrainian-Crimea issue, India’s continued presence in Afghanistan, China’s naval presence in the Indian Ocean Region and the India-Vietnam joint exploration of oil in the South China Sea. Other issues are the US Asia Pivot and its corollary – Asia for Asians, participating in an Indo-Pacific security tie-up, the role India is prepared to play in the ASEAN plus ARF and the numerous tertiary’s emanating from these in the East and South East Asian Region, the Chinese Maritime Silk Route and relations with US and Russia post the Ukrainian crisis – if it is a repeat of the Cold War, is India going to pull out the Non-alignment card?

Can India remain South Asia-centric despite its growing economic power but lacking a matching military power? Is soft power sufficient to assure a berth at the high table in the global forums? Does India have the type of surplus cash to dish out huge aid to any country? China is giving Pakistan aid to the tune of $42 billion which translates to $2,500 per Pakistani. Can India match that level of aid to Nepal, Myanmar, and Maldives? The short answer is ‘NO’.

As India scales up on the regional/global power ladder, it will be called upon to respond to conflict situations by those who seek its assistance. Resolving such conflict situations may demand more than just diplomatic advice and succor. Is India prepared to intervene militarily? Or is it going to shy away under the pretext of Pancheel and the not yet defunct non-alignment policy?

Internally, India’s political system allows the existence of political parties and groups with limited and often parochial agendas. Similarly, the media too focuses on limited internecine conflicts than larger global or strategic issues. Each is out to make the quickest gains. Religion in this multi-cultural, multi-ethnic society too is often used to incite strong communal feelings leading to violent social conflict. These elements can be easily subverted by inimical forces to undermine national unity and security.

The quagmire that is the internal situation in India, be it political, or governance or the legal system, it is an unmitigated disaster. Abject poverty persists and it stubbornly continues, hoping against hope that it would vanish on its own. The appalling state of infrastructure, electric power grid that trips after the mildest shower, makes it impossible to harness technology. Potable water remains a pipedream for millions.

The decrepit education system seems be on the life support ventilator. There is misplaced faith in the much trumpeted youth bulge that have a questionable educational foundation and near to nothing vocational skills. The uncontrolled migration to urban areas is resulting in a systemic collapse of the urban amenities turning them into massive slums. The economic migration from the poorer neighbouring nations is being blatantly exploited by the politician with utter disregard to national security. There is an uncontrolled exploitation of natural resources and the environment.

A polity supported by a bureaucracy and police force steeped in feudalism; a government which claims e-governance but never responds to emails, is all self-serving. The exploitation of the poor by the rich and powerful and the usurping of national resources by the rich and powerful for personal use without fear of the law or any conscience, is the harsh truth. The rampant unrestrained corruption in every aspect of government functioning is accepted as normal despite emphatic pronouncements from the ramparts of the Red Fort.

The gradual decline of hard power due to non induction of weapons and equipment into every arm of the military for decades has actually hollowed the military as termites would, a majestic tree. The slide needs to be stemmed by a gut-wrenching reform of the Ministry of Defence and its associated functionaries such as the Defence Research and Development Organisation, (DRDO), Ordinance Factories and the Defence Public Sector Undertakings (DPSUs). The government cannot pussyfoot on this issue any longer.

The list appears depressingly endless and demoralising. Since the scale of the problem has been so humungous, successive governments have let it drift hoping it will correct itself. India cannot afford to let the drift continue. Unfortunately, the current scenario is not too encouraging. It is – Modi the harbinger of change versus the rest of India deeply entrenched in a status quo mentality. In a truthful, unbiased, realist’s introspection devoid of cynicism, it is evident that India does not fit the bill of becoming a power of any sort for another three decades at the least. To disprove this claim, determined measures for change will have to be expeditiously adopted. Under the current leadership, there is a chance. Otherwise, India will remain a pseudo global power.