“A nation has security when it does not have to sacrifice its legitimate definitions interests to avoid war, and is able, if challenged, to maintain them by war.” ~ Walter Lippmann
While the world currently stands fixated on The Kamchatka brown bear that is out of the den and is going after Ukraine. Unlike the past military conflicts, India is playing its part out in the open.
The military operation in Ukraine has brought the Indo-Russian alliance into focus. India on Saturday abstained on a US-sponsored UN Security Council resolution that deplores in the strongest terms the Russian invasion. India has maintained its position saying- dialogue is the only answer to settling differences and disputes. From Afghanistan to Ukraine crisis, this is important to note India’s growing clout in the existing world order. Origins of India’s ascendancy traces back to the seminal Balakot strike- a daredevil operation in which the Indian Air Force hit a Jaish-e-Mohammad base within Pakistan. Three years on, India is leading the prospects of multi-polar world order as the US-led order is in decline, China and India are leading the new alliances. Putin has prompted some officials and commentators to declare that the gates are breaking and the modern international legal order has collapsed or is in transition from US-led to Real multi-polarity?
Main hoon na!! ~ Biden
From Afghanistan to Ukraine, the free world is frowning at towards US’s commitment to protecting the existing order. Today, the world needs to better coherent strategy to deal with US’s unreliability and to combat territorial revisionism across the globe. First, America’s self-inflicting defeat at the hands of the Taliban assisted by ISI; Second, the Russian Invasion of Ukraine has led its allies to carter for their legitimate security concerns. Baltic States and Japan are asking for more clarity from the US on Poland and Taiwan.
Indo-Pacific is already dealing with Cartographic adventurism over the South China Sea. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has further encouraged debate and discussion in Chinese social media over Chinese irredentism in the future. In addition to this, the West’s inability to bring Russia to the diplomatic table has raised a few red flags in New Delhi. New Delhi faces three challenges- Strategic autonomy, Aatmanirbharta, and Chartering through sanctions.
Strategic autonomy
The consequences of the invasion of Ukraine will reverberate for years to come, the West’s strategic calculus in dealing with China. With NATO locking horns with Russia in Europe and ASEAN seeking centrality in the Indo-Pacific vision. This leaves India and Japan contemplating how to ensure free and fair Indo-pacific based on UNCLOS (United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea) with the US tied up in Europe?
The main driver of QUAD is strategic collaboration against China’s neo-imperial expansionism. However, American and Indian strategic priorities are not the same- the US has maintained its non-military objectives (economic and geopolitical) to counter China, while India is in confrontation with the PLA troops along its northern borders. Shreds of evidence suggest that the Russia-China-Pakistan relationship will only deepen in the future, a scenario that has severe considerations on India’s defense engagement with Russia. Russian invasion has only highlighted the diplomatic Bharatnatyam that New Delhi is involved in and how difficult it will be for India to remain multi-aligned in this polarised world.
In recent years, India has increased its footprint in Russia’s far east using the Chennai-Vladivostok project and India’s Arctic policy. What will happen to these projects, and how can India gain salience among allies in Indo-Pacific states in the absence of the US and reach a certain entente with Russia on QUAD.
Chartering through Sanctions
As UK and NATO unleash sanctions on Russia, it seems that these sanctions will have a long-term effect on Russia- not something that the Ukrainians want in the immediate future. By exempting the SWIFT banking system and Oil supplies for now under due consideration of the legitimate concerns of its NATO allies, the West is unable to cause enormous damage to the Russian bear. US and allies have targeted Russian banks and oligarchs in the UK and US. While sanctions aim to trigger a long-term cascading effect on the Russian economy, time will only tell its effectiveness. Post-2014, Russia has made efforts to delink its economic transactions from European and American banks and rely more on the Chinese. Moscow is unfazed from sanctions, but striking Russia’s Central bank will reverberate in Moscow and beyond. The impact of these sanctions is ambiguous as yet, given the EU’s energy dependency. The Chinese banks( ICBC and Bank of China) are vigilant about the situation-they have limited Russian purchases for now. India is likely to speed up the Rupee-Roubles trade arrangement to bypass sanctions imposed on Russia. Russia controls vast global resources — natural gas, oil, wheat, palladium, and nickel — isolating Russia have far-reaching consequences, prompting spikes in energy and food prices across the world. India’s economic planners need to brace for a short-term spike and ripples that follow.
Aatmanirbhar Bharat in defense production
As the politics of “iron and blood” return to Europe and the Russian economy faces undue stress, China will gain more leverage in dealing with Russia in the long term. With Germany hiking its spending on defense and allies soon to follow suit, Russian 49 years old equipment may look good in numbers but is insufficient in the long run to match NATO’s firepower. Russia now faces a colossal task to modernize its military with an economic kaput. Russia will look for defense exports to fuel new research on its military equipment and three potential buyers India, Pakistan, and China. India’s push for self-reliance is both a boon and a bane- depending on how we choose to accept it. India now has more leverage in buying equipment with the transfer of technology from both sides, something the West is not keen to provide. China is also looking to leverage this crisis in the joint development of disruptive niche technology with Russia. Timelines of Indo-Russian defense cooperation are also likely to get affected by this crisis. There is no iota of doubt that India needs Aatmanirbharta in its defense sector and is slowly revamping its defense production capacities, but the question is how do we keep credible conventional deterrence till then?
Our strategic planners must take cognizance of and make a perspective plan in the light of recent developments.
Conclusion
The Ukrainian imbroglio has changed everything; Europe is in for a long haul. At best, we should expect a new cold war for at least a generation in eastern Europe. India must be prepared to address the strategic problem of navigating sanctions and the arms dependency on Russia even as China and Russia get together.
Please wait...
India is in a weak position.
Its a matter of how India chooses to look at the current chess board.
– Self-reliance has not been achieved
We haven’t been able to produce world class defense equipment
-Self Reliance is unlikely to be achieved by the private sector. Indian private sector is at best a sabji-mandi. Reasons are -> corruption, lack of research funding/encouragement etc, and lastly (most importantly) sub-standard caliber of researchers.
Now consider the following ground realities together:
1. absence of any world caliber Indian researchers (or research oriented corporates:- Bania mindset and cronyism is a recipe for Banias and cronys and not nation builders) . Indian has a cut-copy-paste or “transfer of technology” mindset. It is encouraged by family owned corporates , who are afraid that really brilliant technocrats would threaten their iron-grip on their companies (similar to politics across parties).
2. changed geopolitical situation in Europe, which makes it out of the question for Western countries (owners of cutting-edge military tech) to supply/transfer hardware and tech to anyone doing business with Russia.
3. Emergence of Russia-China-Pak axis.
The above three require India to re-calibrate its foreign policy posture.
Non-Alignment DOES NOT mean reliance on Russia.
Non-Alignment DOES NOT mean anti-westernism (although with the so-called Indian “Cultural” inclinations and USSR finance, that is the meaning Non-Alignment took)
In fact India’s client-state relationship with Russia began with the Nixon administration’s machinations with Pak-China.
Putin’s machinations in Ukraine are as eventful.
A tectonic re-calibration requires foreign policy wizards at the helm, not self-promoting, arrogant, minority-hating buffoons.
Actually, India is in a strong position. With the West at loggerheads with both Russia and China, it can ill-afford to alienate New Delhi.
Insofar as any recalibration is required, it is in a pro-Eastern direction. After all, the global balance of power is shifting against the West, and our foreign policy needs to reflect that.
[Admittedly, dealing with China will be difficult. However, we can make it much easier for ourselves by dismantling its main ally in the region – the abomination on our Western border.]