Baloch Freedom Fighters
For decades, Pakistan has engaged in a proxy war against India. Much of that proxy war has been secretive, while many of those secrets have been exposed. At other times, Pakistan has made threats of taking war deep inside Indian territory, and Hamid Gul has openly voiced the disintegration of India. Pakistan’s proxy wars have extended from J&K and Punjab to the Northeast regions and the Maoist belt. Pakistani assistance for the Indian mujahedeen and homegrown Indian terrorists has arrived by way of Nepal, Burma, Bangladesh, infiltration across the LOC in J&K, and infiltration of the Punjab and Rajasthan borders. The smuggling of narcotics into Punjab is accompanied by small arms quickly stockpiled in sleeper cells and mosques across India. Pakistan is playing towards an endgame; in contrast, India reacts in knee-jerk fashion, rather than catching Pakistani action before the effect, and finds its own plays in Pakistan stymied by an ever-alert ISI.
Pakistan is playing towards an endgame; in contrast, India reacts in knee-jerk fashion, rather than catching Pakistani action before the effect…
For years, Pakistan has succeeded in suborning Indian military and government officers and politicians, while India has fallen flat in all such attempts. And even today, Pakistan finds sympathizers among a very large Indian population that would rather see Muslim and Pakistani rule in India rather than secular Indian rule. Given this internal shortcoming, India has enemies not only on its borders, but within, as well. This makes India’s task of maintaining its sovereignty all the more difficult. But fortunately for India, India’s massive population serves as a buffer to a lot of that action, thereby serving to mitigate and absorb the forces that would otherwise disintegrate India. But for India to bank on this strength alone would be unwise, for this bastion can easily break, just as it was broken for the past one thousand years before independence in 1947.
Pakistani has truly bled India by its proxy wars. Revenue income from J&K and the North East are much lower than potential. Narcotic distribution by Pakistan in Punjab has resulted in lackluster growth in Punjab’s GDP – for decades the most prosperous state in India. The Maoists have sucked revenue growth in nearly 40% of India’s land mass. That India should grow in real terms at 6% per year is simply amazing given these odds. What India could do if these hurdles and negative forces were absent would probably be nothing short of a miracle. It therefore seems appropriate to conclude that Pakistan is coming in the direct way of India’s miracle. Naturally, no rational Indian wants to see Pakistan continue to do so. Hence, the common Indian further concludes that Pakistan must either be stopped in its destructive actions against India by peaceful action, or be annihilated by force to cease and desist.
The former sees no chance of success: all the diplomacy over decades by the 800-strong Indian Foreign service has yielded nothing more than failures, four wars, and numerous smaller military actions, and daily incursions by Pakistan into India. This is not what can be called successful Indian diplomacy, no matter how smart the diplomats or what scores they earned in their IAS entrance exams. The real world of diplomacy consists of grenades and bullets, not roses and choice gardens. The real world offers injured and dead soldiers and widows, not posh bungalows in Lutyens’ Delhi. The real world sees blood, sweat, heat, cold, and tears in guarding the borders, not air conditioned rooms of rich parliamentarians in central and south Delhi. It is time to come with the wave, to understand mainstream India, to think like the Indians who earn less than $2 a day – mainstream India – which doesn’t get three square meals a day, and is pained to access medical assistance, and dies prematurely largely because there is an enemy that sucks India’s resources and kills its people from within. For Pakistan, it is a very intelligent way to succeed against a larger India; for India, it is the lamb being led to the slaughterhouse. And because mainstream India continues to carry an ever-increasing yoke, they are slowly turning against the governments that are supposed to look after them. Long gone is the time when the poor looked upon the government as mai-baap. The increased alienation of mainstream India from Indian government is a direct threat to India’s security and sovereignty. Aadhar and other such programs are scarcely going to lift the sense of alienation, no matter which government or coalition is at the center.
…a proxy war by Pakistan in two Indian provinces merely affects less than 10% of all Indian provinces, a proxy war by India in two Pakistani provinces can affect 40% of Pakistan.
Thus, in this thesis, the actions that detract from Indian economic growth must be neutralized, and foremost among these is Pakistani proxy wars and interference in India. So, short of an invasion of Pakistan, an Indian proxy war inside Pakistan must be expanded. Whereas a proxy war by Pakistan in two Indian provinces merely affects less than 10% of all Indian provinces, a proxy war by India in two Pakistani provinces can affect 40% of Pakistan. By its sheer size, Pakistani resilience can be less, and Pakistani response to Indian proxy wars can be less effective. In addition, the effect of proxy wars on the Pakistani economy can be much more to Pakistan than a proxy war on India by Pakistan. Nevertheless, Pakistan did not learn the lesson that those who live in glass houses should not throw stones. Pakistan never thought that two could play the game; or else, they thought they could disintegrate India before India woke up. Well, that was not the case. India plans to take proxy wars into Pakistani territory, and pay Pakistan back in its own coin. But let’s analyze how a proxy war may succeed within Pakistan.
Requisite Principles of Proxy Wars
As experience around the world has shown, a successful proxy war that is able to disaffiliate a part of a territory or initiate regime change in a country must consider four major parameters:
- The numerical size of the rebel army
- The volume of external aid and military assistance actually provided to the rebels
- The resolve and ability of the home army to resist the armed rebellion
- The physical presence of external military action by a foreign country.
We can study a few examples to illustrate that all the above four must be present in appropriate proportions for the rebellion to succeed. Requisites 1, 2, and 4 should be as high as possible, while requisite 3 should be as low as possible.
In 1971, the Mukti Bahini had rebels in large numbers, and received a large volume of Indian military supplies, advisors, and Bengali soldiers from the Indian army, thus fulfilling requisites 1 and 2 above. However, Pakistan had about one corps plus two divisions spread over all parts of Bangladesh to suppress all uprisings in all parts of East Pakistan, thereby demonstrating Pakistani resolve to hold on to East Pakistan, thereby fulfilling requisite 3 above. But then, as anyone can understand, without Indian military action that invaded East Pakistan, no one thinks that Bangladesh would have been created. Hence, Mukti Bahini resistance would have been resisted by Pakistani forces till doomsday, even if it meant that the economy would go to ruin and all East Pakistanis would die. Therefore, the liberation of Bangladesh would have been impossible without direct Indian military intervention.
…the effect of proxy wars on the Pakistani economy can be much more to Pakistan than a proxy war on India by Pakistan.
Look now at how the Americans fought off the Russians in Afghanistan. The Americans benefitted from a very large numerical rebel force in the shape of the mujahedeen, supplied effective firepower to them, such as the stinger missiles that succeeded in bringing down the vast majority of the Russian helicopter and air fighting fleet, and supplied military and CIA advisors on the ground. These fulfilled requisites 1 and 2 above. Russian resolve began to weaken after American weaponry began to take a toll on their military, thereby assuring that requisite 3 did not continue as a major criterion in the rebel action. Finally, Pakistani forces were lined up along the entire Durand line to offer physical support to the mujahidin, impart physical training and logistics in executing rebel action, and stood as a solid front to dissuade a Russian invasion of Pakistan, while standing as a threat of possibly intervening in Afghanistan should the situation call for it with American blessings. This requisite 4 was present in this long drawn battle that eventually saw success by the rebels.
Later, in Kosovo, NATO bombing was so devastating and overwhelming that internal resolve to resist was wiped out. But, even with a small numerical size of the rebel army, the out-of-proportion external military intervention via aerial bombing carried the day, and Kosovo was set on the path of independence.
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Look next at Libya: a large rebel base, especially in East Libya, was granted weapons by NATO while CIA advisors guided strategy and tactics on the ground. American army teams provided clandestine field medical facilities. The Libyan army had already been reduced to ineffectiveness by Gaddafi because he feared they may launch a coup against him just as he did against King Idris, so the ability of the Libyan army to resist was reduced. Gaddafi had to procure mercenaries from neighboring Male who had mixed loyalties and so took Gaddafi’s money till the going was good, but then abandoned him when the going got tough. Finally, NATO warplanes such as the Eurofighter and Rafale delivered the coup d’etat to Libyan forces for over weeks of prolonged fighting. Again, we see that all four requisites in our criteria were present to favorable degrees for the regime change to succeed through a proxy war.
Now look at Syria: Whereas the Free Syrian Army has a large numerical size, the arms it receives are limited as America refuses to arm them, while Europe is a reluctant supplier. The resolve of Bashar Assad to resist knows no end; and external intervention is all but missing, with only one or two Israeli air raids into Syria, but that also only to target fissile nuclear material and movement of trucks and machinery required for Syria’s clandestine nuclear program. Hence, it can be observed that Syria’s civil war is dragging on slowly and painfully at a rotten pace. The external ingredient is convincingly missing in the right proportion for the rebel action to succeed convincingly. Thus, the lesser the external supply and physical action on the ground, the longer the rebel action can be expected to take; if external assistance is stepped up, the Assad regime is likely to crumble faster.
India has sent in up to 500,000 troops at one time to control Kashmir. Moreover, any military action that Pakistan initiates across the Line of Control (LOC) is not sufficient to overpower Indian forces.
The applications of the requisites are applicable and relevant everywhere. The Chechen and Sinkiang rebellions have been unsuccessful because there is no external physical action present. The only armaments they get are from other Islamic groups in Asia, which is of an insufficient and meager amount. Sinkiang rebels have been trained second hand by mujahidin in Afghanistan and madrasas in Pakistan, a poor substitute for the real training. Similarly, the Mindanao rebels have failed to severe from the Philippines because internal resolve to resist them is high and external actions to intervene are absent. Gaddafi funded the Mindanao rebels for a long time in the 1990s and 2000s, and their rebel attacks were aggressive during those days, but the situation is apparently contained now because the necessary requisites have further diminished.
In 1979, we saw that the Cambodian populace, unable to overthrow a blood-sucking Pol-Pot, required an actual Vietnamese invasion to overthrow the brutal regime, since no amount of earlier Vietnamese weapon assistance to the rebel armies seemed to suffice. Overall, it can be noticed all over the world that the principle of the four requisites is applicable and relevant in every proxy war that anyone seeks to fight.
The Principle of Requisites Applied to Pakistan’s Proxy Wars in India
Coming now to India, it is seen that Nagaland is still a part of India inspite of the fact that the numerical size of rebels was tangible; they received small arms from outside sources (read: China and Pakistan). But they underestimated the resolve of successive Indian governments, and there was no external enemy action against Nagaland. Hence requisite 1 existed; requisite 2 was present to a considerable extent, but not to the fullest extent; and requisites 3 and 4 were absent; the result: proxy wars waged by Pakistan and China in Nagaland have been unsuccessful in severing Nagaland from the Indian union.
…the uprisings, revolts, and rebellions continue in Baluchistan today. MI6 and CIA are interested in carving the country of Baluchistan, in which they find themselves as strange bedfellows with Iran, with the same end interest, but for a different reason.
Extend this principle to J&K. Pakistan has tried repeatedly since 1947 to severe J&K from India. Pakistan has provided small arms, sent its own military personnel to infiltrate Kashmir to create turmoil, has grown a rebel mujahidin army with the help of other terrorist outfits, and has succeeded in destroying the economic base of Kashmir, but has failed to severe Kashmir from India. India’s resolve to hang on to J&K is steadfast, resolute, and non-negotiable. In addition, India has sent in up to 500,000 troops at one time to control Kashmir. Moreover, any military action that Pakistan initiates across the Line of Control (LOC) is not sufficient to overpower Indian forces. Hence, whereas requisites 1 and 2 are present in Kashmir, requisites 3 and 4 are not present in adequate proportions.
The situation with the Maoists has not reached extreme proportions yet. Perhaps when India has to fight on two-and-a-half fronts, this dimension may pose a problem, but for the present, the Maoist situation, by itself, is missing requisites 3 and 4; requisite 1 is very, very strongly in its favor, and requisite 2 is also existent because the Maoists are known to receive small arms with Chinese markings, unless the allegation is propaganda by Indian counter-intelligence. Hence, the Maoists can fret and fume from event after event, but they will be unable to secure major advantages till requisites 3 and 4 fall into place, which is why the Maoist problem is still somewhat contained.
Proxy Wars in Pakistan: Baluch Focus
Now, move to Baluchistan, which is the main site of India’s proclaimed proxy war in Pakistan. The British and Americans also have strong interest in creating an independent Baluchistan, not to mention Iran’s interest because Baluchistan is predominantly Shia, like Iran. British Prime Minister Tony Blair apparently put the idea into America’s ear that having an independent Baluchistan would solve America’s overland route problem into Afghanistan. The British SIS (or MI6) consequently initiated clandestine action with the CIA post 10/11 to foment rebellion in Baluchistan, once American troops displaced the Taliban from power in Afghanistan. Hence requisite 2 went into action. The numerical size of the rebels was relatively small when the Western powers started, but that got built to some 4-6,000 rebels, about the size of two brigades, and enough to cause turmoil, blow up army depots, harass military convoys, and launch surprise attacks at military bases. Seeing an upswing in Baluch rebellion in 2004, Musharraf sent in one division and two brigades to quash the rebellion. Soon, the octogenarian leader of Baluchistan, Nawab Akbar Bugti, Oxford-educated, and a former Governor of Baluchistan, was assassinated by Musharraf in 2006, who claimed it a victory for the Pakistani people1. In 2007, the Pakistani army resorted to indiscriminate civilian attacks in the regions of Kahan and Dera Bugti; over 200 houses were razed, and more than 100 civilians, women and children killed. In addition, Pakistani forces poured into more than a dozen cities to suppress pro-independence protests; the army further used helicopter gunships and carpet bombed entire villages in Kahan, Taratani and Kamalan Kech areas. Dozens of Baluch were shot dead in cold blood by executing squads, 400 were arrested, another 500 were kidnapped. The human rights violations were appalling.2
Indian covert action in Baluchistan is fair tit-for-tat for Pakistani proxy wars in India. India should not be left wanting in its own security concerns.
In 2012, nearly 1,000 people were officially known killed in Baluchistan,3 in a province of only 8 million people, even though it occupies 44% of the land area of Pakistan. The daughter and grand-daughter of Bugti were slaughtered in their car in the streets of Karachi, to send a gruesome message to Bugti’s grandson, Brahmadagh, the leader of the Baluch Republican Party.4 It appears that the rebellion is weighted in the opposite direction to what intended: rebel groups and sympathizers are being slaughtered by home security forces rather than the other way around. Nevertheless, after Musharraf’s departure to England, an FIR was issued against him for the murder of Akbar Bugti. Musharraf will still have to face the music after he returns on March 24, 2013 to Pakistan.
Thus, the uprisings, revolts, and rebellions continue in Baluchistan today. MI6 and CIA are interested in carving the country of Baluchistan, in which they find themselves as strange bedfellows with Iran, with the same end interest, but for a different reason. For Iran, it’s a question of creating a larger Shia conglomerate; for the Americans and British it is to have an overland route to Afghanistan, as well as have a physical base from where to monitor Pakistani nuclear movements; for India, it is simply a matter to break-up and weaken an arch enemy. India is assumed to provide assistance to the Baluch, an action that India need not be ashamed of, though Pakistan tried to shame India in this matter in the famous 2009 joint statement between Yousuf Raza Gilani and Manmohan Singh.5 Creating a proxy war in Baluchistan to severe it from Pakistan is in the direct interest of India. First, the mineral-rich province will then no longer provide resources and riches to Pakistan, an event that will directly deplete Pakistani military expenditure. While Baluchistan is easily Pakistan’s richest province, its people are its poorest, mainly because Pakistan has exploited Baluchistan like a colony. The human rights excesses by Pakistan in Baluchistan are enough of a moral reason to assist and aid the Baluch in segregating from Pakistan. But more than that, Pakistan has been enough of an enemy of India to attract India’s legitimate and moral wrath. Finally, Indian covert action in Baluchistan is fair tit-for-tat for Pakistani proxy wars in India. India should not be left wanting in its own security concerns. An eye for an eye and a tooth for a tooth is fair policy. But India needs to brook no nonsense, and like every other country in its place, has the moral right to react disproportionately: Two eyes for one; and the whole jaw for a tooth!
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Brief History of Baluchistan
Baluchistan consists of a western province in Iran, a northern province in Afghanistan, and a central province in Pakistan. They speak a dialect distantly related to the Kurdish people. Ironically, the Baluch are deprived of a nation just like the Kurds, who are also divided across three countries. In the 19th century, the Persians and British agreed to divide Baluchistan into a Persian sector, an Afghan province, and an independent central state that served as a vassal state to Great Britain,6 much like Kashmir. These vassal states protected Great Britain from invasions from the West and North, especially considering that they entered into a separate agreement with Russia to keep Afghanistan as a virtual no-man’s land. Thus, Britain’s borders to the north and west against the major empires of the time – Russia, Persia, and a potential China were secure. Tibet was an added buffer against both Russian and Chinese invasions, remembering that Chengiz Khan had come into North India through Tibet and Afghanistan, while Russia had expanded southwards into Central Asia during the major part of the early 19th century.
At Indian independence in 1947, Baluchistan, like Kashmir, was kept out of the India-Pakistan equation, and both Kashmir and Baluchistan were left as independent, sovereign states by Britain, with Britain actually recognizing Baluchistan as a sovereign state. But, on March 26, 1948, 300 years of Baluch autonomy came to a striking end when the Pakistani army walked in, much like India walked into Hyderabad. That India recognized Pakistani occupation of Baluchistan was probably in reciprocity to Pakistani recognition of India’s occupation of Hyderabad.
The total rebel strength is still not estimated at more than 5,000 armed fighters – perhaps as low as 2,000. This number is much too small to sustain an effective armed uprising.
Arab nationalists in Iraq, Syria, and Egypt began to support Baluch independence in the 1950s. Iraq renewed its support of Iranian Baloch during the Iran-Iraq war of 1980-88. Very logically, Russia supported Pakistani Baluch during their occupation of Afghanistan, 1979-1989. Ahmad Akbar Bugti rose to prominence in the 1990s, galvanized Baluch resistance, but was squarely eliminated by Musharraf in the 2000s. Harsh repressions against Baluch nationals, presumed rebels, and sympathizers continues today by Pakistani security forces, thereby further alienating the sentiments of the Baluch people. But the Baluch people simply are a small population and suffer from inadequate external assistance to carve their independence. This, in a nutshell, is the Baluch history. In all this, it must not be forgotten that the Baluch are an independent group of people who have had their own country in the past; they are a sovereign people who want to see an end to Punjabi exploitation from Islamabad, and now rightfully seek their own free nation.
Implementation of the Baluch Proxy War
So, inasmuch as India needs to foment Baluch rebellion, let’s apply the four principle requisites to the problem. First, there are an insufficient number of Baluch rebels available who will fight for independence. The total rebel strength is still not estimated at more than 5,000 armed fighters – perhaps as low as 2,000. This number is much too small to sustain an effective armed uprising. In contrast, the Free Syrian Army has a maximum of 50,000 fighters,7 including deserters from the Syrian Army, but is still in a tough face-off with the Syrian Army, which is much smaller and less professional than the Pakistani army.
In comparison, the Pakistani army is 450,000 strong, and so Pakistan can very easily suppress any armed rebellion by 2,000 Baluch rebels. That the people of Baluchistan may suffer in the process or that the province may become poorer is not of concern to Pakistani Punjabis. All that the Pakistani Punjabis want are the minerals and resources of Baluchistan, the rest being damned. Hence, an armed rebellion in Baluchistan may not be more than a bee sting for Pakistan that Pakistan can easily shrug and forget.
Pakistani resolve to retain Baluchistan is firm. Pakistan’s ISI and military is pro-active in weeding possible Baluch rebels, often kidnapping innocent men and women in the process.
Thus we see that requisite 1 is difficult to fulfill, notwithstanding British, American, Iranian, and Indian wishes in the matter. Requisite 2 is hard to come by, because effective weaponry is not being given yet, in spite of what people may believe. The Western powers are forever wary that their assistance may fall into the wrong hands. India’s hardware assistance is miniscule. Russian assistance stopped in 1989, even though the Russians first raised the Baluch Liberation Army (BLA). But, with RAW and RAD (Russian Intelligence) help, America trained some 30 Baluch fighters in 2002 that RAW helped select.8 But anyone can understand that 30 fighters is a pitiable joke for a huge province! Other reports claim that numerous training camps have come up across Pakistan,9 but how many fighters do they produce? Thirty per camp in ten camps? This is still an extremely small number to stir a rebellion. The numbers of camps that have been discovered and destroyed by Pakistani forces are also significant, so India’s results are certainly not 100%, but closer to 50%, in all likelihood. Thus, the proxy war situation is even more pathetic than expected. The deaths and assaults reported for Baluchistan are of Baluch by Taliban and Pakistani security forces rather than the other way around. Baluch rebel assaults on Pakistani military forces are all but non-existent. If the rebellion were meaningful and strong, more Pakistani military casualties would be registered. Foreign weapon assistance, including from India, is minimal.10 The assistance from America and Britain has slid to lip-service and hearings at the US Congress. The action on the ground is far from meaningful. The rhetoric, as usual, especially in Indian security analysis circles is hyped up. They catch a mouse and claim to have caught a tiger! This is typical Indian personality, characterized by some degree of inferiority. The truth is that the Baluch proxy war is close to dreaming of action but having none of it; impotence is a better way to characterize it. India knows how to count its chickens, but not hatch them.
On the other hand, Pakistani resolve to retain Baluchistan is firm. Pakistan’s ISI and military is pro-active in weeding possible Baluch rebels, often kidnapping innocent men and women in the process. “In the period from 2003-2012 it is estimated that 8,000 people were kidnapped by Pakistani security forces in the province. In 2008 alone an estimated 1,102 Baluch people disappeared. There have also been [widespread] reports of torture.”11 These reports widely resemble Indian army actions in Nagaland in the 1960s and Punjab in the 1980s, and even now both those provinces are firmly in Indian territory. Pakistan has systematically eliminated members of the BLA and other would-be rebels, even though General Kakar, former Chief of Army of Staff of Pakistan, called Musharraf’s actions in killing Bugti a mistake.12 The will of the Pakistani political and military machinery to squash Baluch rebellion is strong; this thereby indicates that requisite 3 is not adequate for a rebellion to succeed.
Thus, requisites 1, 2, and 3 are wanting. However, it is possible to tilt these by using requisite 4 in such a way that it overcomes all other requisites. Thus, by the Indian army opening its guns all along the 1,850 mile Indo-Pak border, and stepping up weapon supplies to the Baluch Liberation Army (BLA), much as it did to the Mukti Bahini, India can hope to tie down Pakistani forces on its Eastern front, while military installations in Baluchistan can be torched by rebels, and bombarded by Indian naval gunships and missile ships. Much as India loaned its Bengali officers and soldiers to the Mukti Bahini in 1971, it may have to do something similar with the BLA, albeit in a different shape. Again, Indian Special Forces and Marcos can be a great asset here, though the Indian establishment can brainstorm other options. Cooperation with Iran in this respect must not be ruled out, but must be negotiated. USA and Britain must be more closely consulted. For instance, Iran could press troops on the Baluchistan border, or US troops could come down into Quetta in Baluchistan from Kandahar, even if these are distant dreams, because the USA is simply scared to send troops into Pakistan for various military, economic, and political reasons. Nevertheless, without external military intervention it is difficult to see how Pakistan will relinquish control over a huge, mineral-rich province.
Eventually, the paltry Indian assistance to the Baluch Liberation Army must increase by gargantuan amounts for the liberation action to succeed.
The execution of the proxy war will also require allocation of a special status by the Indian cabinet and a large budget to go with it. Hence, requisites 1, 2, and 4 can be ramped up and the will of resistance that is in requisite 3 can be gradually broken by the measures mentioned. This is how the proxy war can succeed; else its success is only in the imagination of dreamers, because even a weak and fatigued Pakistan will not relinquish its hold on Baluchistan.
Conclusion
Four requisites for the success of a proxy war were outlined, and examples given from world situations. In conclusion, it sounds unlikely that a proxy war as currently being waged by India or the Western powers in Baluchistan can severe Baluchistan from Pakistan, even though they need it for their strategic interests. The four requisites to make this happen in Baluchistan simply don’t seem to exist, and Pakistan’s will to retain Baluchistan is strong. However, the deficiency in requisites can be overcome if India ties down Pakistani forces along the Indo-Pak border after opening its guns in fire along the entire 1,850 mile border. This must be supplemented by loaning Special Forces soldiers and officers to the Baluch National Army to damage and destroy Pakistani installations in Baluchistan. Eventually, the paltry Indian assistance to the Baluch Liberation Army must increase by gargantuan amounts for the liberation action to succeed. In the end, a freedom fight and proxy war in Baluchistan is morally justified for the human rights abuses and excesses by Islamabad in Baluchistan. It is undeniable that a successful proxy war in Baluchistan is in India’s strategic interest. This proxy war can be fought as overtly as covertly because India has been at war with Pakistan for 65 years.
Reference:
- Akbar Bugti,” Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Akbar_Bugti
- Pater Tatchell, “Pakistan attacks Baluchistan, again,” Human Rights, Democracy, Global Justice, LGTBI Freedom, http://www.petertatchell.net/international/baluchistan/pakistanattacksbaluchistan.htm
- “Balochistan Assessment 2013,”http://www.satp.org/ satporgtp/countries/pakistan/Balochistan/index.html
- Omer Farooq Khan,”Nawab Bugti’s kin killed in high-security Karachi area,” Times of India, Feb 9, 2012.
- “Why Did Manmohan Agree to include Balochistan in the Joint Statement at Sharmel Sheikh?”, Alaiwah!, http://alaiwah.wordpress.com/2009/08/21/why-did-manmohan-agree-to-include-balochistan-in-the-joint-statement-at-sharmel-sheikh/
- Stuartbramhall, “ The CIA’s Strange Bedfellows in Pakistan,”The Most Revolutionary Act,, http://stuartbramhall.aegauthorblogs.com/tag/baloch-liberation-army/
- “Free Syrian Army,” Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Free_Syrian_Army
- Stuartbramhall, op. cit.
- Ibid.
- “Balochistan Conflict,” Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balochistan_conflict#Fifth_conflict_2004_.E2.80.93_to_date
- Ibid.
- Asim Aswan, Musharraf’s Balochistan operation was a “mistake”, The Express Tribune, May 16, 2010,http://tribune.com.pk/story/13657/musharrafs-balochistan-operation-was-a-mistake/
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BJP makes too much sound…..Modi should be swift, nimble and ACT with full aggression…Don’t make unnecessary noise in media……
China is building Gwadar port and underground secret tunnels are being built. First free-up Balochistan ASAP then Pakhtunistan and lastly get back POK……Do take Westerns powers and Middle east nations in confidence.
Now it is time to act. No more talking.
Instead of making statements in the media, Modi should have quietly supported the Balochistan movement.
Sos. I am Soul Leader Satu. 191175-012v. Started cleaning soul 2013. They still torture me in Finland. I live Minttukatu 2 c 35, Tampere. Help me real life to show what Holy War is. They think that this is show. They follow my phone etc. I am Weija for Native Indians. Sao or Sau to military. But what comes christianity I am ! 15.8-16
Satu Alanko
By starting proxy wars , we have the libyan, Iraqi and now the syrian experience.the rise of still uncalculable foreces more extremist and imaging a Jihadi instaled pak govt. in charge of the nukes. How stupid is this analysis from a learned and qualified Person? i request you Sir to study the postwar effects of all these mentioned countries. then you will analyze that by interfering you create more of a mess than anything good. HA hahaha
EXCELLENT ARTICLE
I agree with you as pakistani, we really need some democracy and want to live like the muslims live in India. It feels sad how all pakistani bothers are taught to hate india for no reason. Talibani killing us on a daily basis and government support to this really worries me as a citizen and I think that this cannot be changed until a new seperate nation is made which is not based on hatred.
Why don’t you first of all block this site for viewers from Pakistan? Don’t you even know the importance of secrecy? And you will publish the war before you start it and think you can win it?
perfect sir…. I am really beleive in what u write…
Time has came to give a big blow to these pakaistani bastards…
Having read this article with interest, its noted the idea of destabilising pakistan and backing the Baloch terrorists was mooted by Tony Blair, a man who has successfully destabilised the middle east with his friend Bush. whats more interesting was that the americans backed this idea with the Indians who have always looked to destabilise not only pakistan but all of its neighbours, a policy inherited from the British,( divide and rule ) India and its rulers need to grow up and learn to live in a stable neighbourhood and change its foreign policy instead of destabilising the neighbouring countries work with them to achieve economic prosperity.
However. going to the points raised by the author in his article, all those points exist in India if Pakistan or China were seriously looking to destabilise and breakup India, IE Nagaland, central / eastern india communist threat, assam,. khalistan etc, currently india has 500,000 soldiers in occupied Kashmir, if the pakistanis and chinese were back separatists in other states, would the indians seriously be able to maintain a stable central government?
Pakistan or china could easily back a force that could seriously undermine central government rule from Delhi, better for the author to look at positives of a stable prosperous Pakistan than a pakistan thats unstable and unable to function.
Dr. Amarjit Singh,
I suggest you write a similar analysis on Khaalistan! Also what about human rights violations in Kashmir by India?
Yours is a totally biased, and an intellectually deficiant article. I suggest you to focus on social writings rather than spending your negative energy on countries and issues which you are gathering from wikipaedias and other un authentic articles
Good luck to you
This is not negativity and why are you so obsessed with Indians and their writers. Pakistan will not survive for next 10 years that is a fact now accepted by all creatures with brains and you are not even feces if compared to Mr. Singh in intellectualism.
Please read this from an international independent newspaper
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2007/aug/15/pakistancelebratesbaluchista
we dont care becouse in balouchistan the sitution is getting better and better
First tell your pakistani stupids , why they do all things in india then ask any question …
Time has came to give a big blow to these pakaistani bastards…
Wage war agsinst us we r waiting and not afraid of death!Sooon the imbalance in the region due to afghan war wil end!you are dreaming of another 1971 but before that u will have ti fight 180 million people pakarmy!
pakistani army means Hizdoun ki Fauz… ha ha ha
samne se ladne ki aukkaat nahi… aur peeth peechey se hi gandi harkat aur chaalein chaltei hain…. suaar kahin ke…
You sure know how to make lies look like the truth. The People of Baluchistan are proud Pakistanis and the situation is getting better and as you have mentioned Pakistan won’t let its spine get separated from itself. Peace. And I think you know about Khalistan.
Today, i studied this topic.i am astonishing ,that Dr. Amarjit Singh,is an independent security analyst, and he does not know that population of Baluchistan is not Shia. very very very very embracing situation for India and indian independent security analyst, . it is same like in Kargil ,indian were not knowing that Pakistani soldier are sitting in thier trenches,and then they were butchered by Pakistani. 2nd thing is Dr. Amarjit Singh,you seem security analyst of 1971 . My dear LOVE , now Pakistan is an important Nuclear state. where ,we will use these Nuclear bomb… just think on it…. We know all ur Tactics . Bangaladish was separate case in this regards that, beside other reason ,it was 1000 miles away from Pakistan. just see that we have crashed ur TTP in FATA. if it require ,we will use bombing in Afghanistan,on ur training camp all along Afghan border,with collaboration and help of Afghanistan. Now ,karzaee Govt is no more there to support u…And last but not least , just think ,that when we use atomic bomb on india ,Hindu nation will never come again in this world … however if u use ,and destroy complete Pakistan …then No problem , There are Muslim in the world ..our Muslim nation will never be ended…but ur will be ????? what …………… u know well …
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Sir,
Why don’t we mention Baluchistan and Sindh whenever Pakistan mentions Kashmir?Are the freedom movements dead there?
Do our security outfits know about the possibility/certainty of the sleeper cells?Gen.Musharraf,on YouTube has talked of attacking India from Front and Back.Is this back the sleeper cells within?
If the U.K. wants a separate Balochistan,why did they not allow a rally of Sindhis in London?
Please reply to my e-mail.Regards,
I came across this article today and cannot stop myself from commenting – this is a typical example of a well-read idiot! How else can the learned “Dr.” equate being Muslim with being Pakistani without any conception of what the word “secular” (Ref: “Pakistan finds sympathizers among a very large Indian population that would rather see Muslim and Pakistani rule in India rather than secular Indian rule”). If we are stooping so low so as to make religious assertions, where does that leave the Sikhs, the Parsis and the tribals? Maybe they are just the supporting cast in this man’s political conception of India. He goes on to add “real world of diplomacy consists of grenades and bullets” – dear sir, this is not the “real world” meaning of diplomacy; diplomacy, unfortunately for you, is roses and doves and summits. Maybe what you mean is the “realist” world? Just because people are well-read does not imply that they know what they are talking about. The author in question is a clear example of this. Must say, I am more disappointed with the portal for carrying forth such a half-baked thought piece without exploring any of the nuances that even realist defence veterans now acknowledge as sanguine and relevant. And I dare you to post this publicly, for I am sure you lack the “real world” guts to do so!
I came across this article today and cannot stop myself from commenting – this is a typical example of a well-read idiot! How else can the learned “Dr.” equate being Muslim with being Pakistani without any conception of what the word “secular” (Ref: “Pakistan finds sympathizers among a very large Indian population that would rather see Muslim and Pakistani rule in India rather than secular Indian rule”). If we are stooping so low so as to make religious assertions, where does that leave the Sikhs, the Parsis and the tribals? Maybe they are just the supporting cast in this man’s political conception of India. He goes on to add “real world of diplomacy consists of grenades and bullets” – dear sir, this is not the “real world” meaning of diplomacy; diplomacy, unfortunately for you, is roses and doves and summits. Maybe what you mean is the “realist” world? Just because people are well-read does not imply that they know what they are talking about. The author in question is a clear example of this. Must say, I am more disappointed with the portal for carrying forth such a half-baked thought piece without exploring any of the nuances that even realist defence veterans now acknowledge as sanguine and relevant.
Well my analysis is after reading this article and comments Both India and pakistan needs sincere leaders who make policies of mutual benefits. instead of supporting USA, British or russia. As people of India and People of pakistan shared same land, culture, passion. This blame game will never ends. We should benefit each other so both mother land prosperous and emerge as better economies in the world. This day will come insha Allah
BLA strength is to mount only guerilla warfare, it cannot succeed in its present form against Paki army. However, if India provides support to strengthen Pukhtoon secession, it will succeed, for it will create internal fissures in the Paki army in addition to dealing at divided front. In any case Durand line is artificial divide between Pushtoons and India must provide impetus to free Khyber Pukhtoonkwa from Paki grip. That should be the correct approach for India because only then you could neutralize the biggest Paki nuisance, the nukes. Paki nukes have triggers controlled by software locks directly under US control. That is the only handle US has against India. If Pukhtoon movement gathers momentum, Uncle Sam will be wary to let the nukes slip into terrorist hands and would keep them further tightly in control. That is also the way to free Balochistan simultaneously.
you indians, monkey descendants, are proving what dogs you are.your front monkey tail starts to shiver by mere thought of facing Pakistani army,so you are now taking your frustration on civilians on border.Let me tell you that you would not be spared of this dog warfare ,its not 65 or 71 where Pak had to wait for foreign armed help to fight now it is self sufficient in it.They say we can use nuclear weapons against india,I say its too much for you,with our junior general, musharaf, we had given you trailer in kargil with conventional weapons we can always direct the movie of your humiliating defeat with a senior general like existing army commander
Don’t forget moron that 93000 paki soldiers were returned safely without handing them over to Mukti Bahini. Guess how many pieces of them would have returned through Mukti Bahini. You paki morons have some cheek to comment, rascals as you are!
If Pakisi won kargil, why did you have to vacate. Are you completely bereft of commonsense. You are such morons that you did not even take dead bodies of your soldiers for dignified burial. How pathetic!
As a Chinese student studying politics and history…I want to say honestly that Baluchistan was NEVER truly part of the Indian subcontinent in the first place…thus it SHOULD be independent from BOTH India and Pakistan.
But now the people of Baluchistan are with Pakistan and want to be with Pakistan. Only India and the western powers want a independent Baluchistan
for their national interests.
Get your facts straight. Baluchistan population is not shia. And neither the population of Baluchistan Sistan province of Iran is Shia. Extremely superficial analysis. Good that Indian government doesnt heed it. And even if india starts a war across the lenght of the border, how is it gonna provide arms to the rebels? Grow up and get off your high horse!
Amarjit Singh’s proxy war postulations were interesting until he blithely suggested towards the end that “the deficiency in requisites (the last of the four nominated by him earlier) can be overcome if India ties down Pakistani forces along the Indo-Pak border after opening its guns in fire along the entire 1,850 mile border. This must be supplemented by loaning Special Forces soldiers and officers to the Baluch National Army to damage and destroy Pakistani installations in Baluchistan.” And what does he imagine Islamabad would do? Roll over and supinely surrender like General Niazi did with General Aurora? Has he not read the publically available military doctrine of the Pakistan armed forces, especially relating to the use of nuclear weapons once an Indian armoured thrust (or any other such activity, ie, hiving off Baluchistan) threatened the break-up of the country? At that point I realised the underlying thread of militaristic jingoism throughout his thesis, and just how dangerously short-sighted and right-wing Dr Singh is. I trust his analysis is not taken seriously by military strategists in New Delhi; to do so would unleash numerous mushroom genies from the bottle that would destroy not just arch enemy Pakistan but at least northern India, if not further. (* Obviously I have not taken literally [and I am sure he didn’t mean it literally either] his referral to “opening its guns in fire along the entire 1850 mile border” because in reality that would not have any strategic effect, other than to drawn reciprocal fire. The hidden meaning of course, means launching meaningful thrusts across the international border that would certainly concentrate the Pak military’s attention on its eastern borders to allow the sort of scenario he propounds for wrenching Baluchistan away from the rest of Pakistan. That, of course, would lead directly to a certain doomsday scenario whose destruction would not discriminate between man-man boundaries on pieces of paper.)
I always love Amrjit jee ka analysis. Its very technical rather than simple analysis
Strategies must evolve with time. An idea whose time is right is probably the most powerful weapon. An idea executed at the wrong moment, however, is a terrible blunder. India had her chance to helped in breaking Balochistan away from Pakistan, but not any more. A lot of things have changed. Most important of these changes is the amount of Chinese involvement in that region. The following link (written in Feb 2013, seven months before Dr. Singh’s article) will shed some light:
globalgeopolitics.net/wordpress/2013/02/03/pakistan-inducts-china-into-balochistan-to-counter-india/
if there is peace & tranquility with all our neighbours, where is the need for such large an army. the army would be down sized to a third of its present size. in order of precedence the army brass would be severely downgraded. police & other such organisations will overshadow the army. therefore the indian army & pakistani army have vested interest to keep the cauldron boiling, to justify there existence. moreover the arms dealers of the world , would not permit peace in the area for obvious reasons. lot of vested interests are there who will ensure the pot continues to simmer . let us not deluge ourselves. there will be no peace in the area. low to mid intensity conflict is there to stay for a long long time.
It is impossible. You can do all 3 points but not the 4th one. You do not have the courage to invade this time. As far as our Army resistence is concerened We divided your RAW & CIA sponserd TTP & now we r waiting for U.S withdrawl. The moment US troops will withdraw Afghan Taliban (The real Taliban) will take charge of Kabul & than all these rebels will automatically eliminated & Mr Singh Pakistan is no sucking India’s resources its your corrupt people who are sucking all your resources even they are not ready to construct washrooms for poor indian women in villeges to prevent then from Rape. Dont try to underestimate Pakistan because this time we will pay you back with interest…..
Let me apply your theory on Kashmir. Pakistan kept infiltrating an incessant army of trained militants into Kashmir and provided massive military aid to jihadis. The same they did to Khalistanis but both ventures failed because of unparallel resolve of India to fight forces against its territorial integrity. In my opinion, military action can only be the final blow to seal the deal and before that all the ground work should be completed.
I still feel that Balochistan could be the next Bangladesh if India plays her cards smartly and think out of the box. This time India should remain throughout behind the curtains and effectively use the west for creating environment, use Afghanistan and/or Iran as proxy and most important use the baloch diaspora specially in Oman. Playing Baloch card will be the best bet for Afghanistan to counter Taliban and safeguard her interests.
Howsoever it may sound until this point but not to forget that Pakistan has nukes and being a rogue nation she would certainly use it, no matter against whom, when she sees Balochistan slipping. Therefore, an action plan should be handy to denuclearize Pakistan during or before such operation. The west has to play the role of denuking Pak and Israel will be more than willing to oblige by having and playing her part.
Pakistan is in turmoil due to internal issues. Post US withdrawal, Taliban will be active in Afghanistan which will further engage Pakistan beyond TTP. Afghan must be ready with a proxy (read balochistan) to counter taliban. A brittle Pak wont be able to hold itself and crumble. So right now is the time for ground work and 2015 for action.
Very well said…The task of helping the rebels is huge…but we need to consider this option if it serves our interests as a nation…
Sardar ji….you are oveloooking and over looking many things. Firsly we dont see india as one thing. Rather a bunch of things. Let everything else be put for a later time,lets only discuss balochistan and khalistan. Balochis are not going anywhere I swear. India is wasting its money in thin air and we know this where are they spending. Secondly we have affinity for many nations in india like punjabis , bangalis, and rajhistanis. But we can not increase our ties with these great nation due to gujratis, marathis and tamils… So see? How complicated it is for us and you are writing as if we are really enjoying all the scene. And indian policy maker knew that fact so they divided only Punjab and made it even stronger by making it even smaller. In this case you can even blame these haryanvi speakers… Bloody snakes.
lower castes are lower, most punjabis(not the real one-but jutts and all) in India–dont have a “line”, just like Pakis..i,m pretty sure they would not want to identify with you, even though you would want to identify with a superior civilization.Sorry , no entry.This is the land of bharata.
Dr., it may seem convenient for India to engage in the proxy wars, however, the long term implications of such violent involvement could hurt us. Are we certain these Baloch would not turn against us when we desert them? Should we not learn from America’s initial engagement with Al-Qaeda, and their subsequent enmity?
The article upto page 3 at the start of implementaion of the proxy war part made sense, well very little anyway. But right after that it seems the writer inhaled crystal meth.
Its really foolish to think that Indian govt is capable to doing any kind proxy wars even with small country, politicians don’t even have time to think about country as they are busy with looting country.
Hi pa-jee,
you are in war with a mindset which runs on truth, how would you defeat it wishes?
how do you get a stronger muscle without gaining mass?
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how about sending Dalai Lama to rebuild bamiyan buddha and re-establish buddha kingdom in afghanisthan (now by force). Chines will like dalai lama to get engaged there??? Indian could take afghanisthan as protectorate for ever. pakistan will rot in civil war which could consume 70-90% of population and rest turn to buddhism for peace. Ideally china and India would love this plot. and even american will get a releif of islamism ideology strength decreasing
We will rip you off and rape your land once again., Mujahedeen are coming , Afghanistan will give birth to millions of Ghanznavi
We will rape you in broad day light , India will become another Syria.
before that one so many hitlers in waiting in india
You’re a maniac! India can crush idiots like you easily if it wants. It’s just India is giving you chance to live and if you don’t then blow yourself up . We’ve a million graves already dug for mujahideens. You’ll be slaughtered like pigs…
What are we waiting for?
India has to wake up and grab the opportunity and join hands with USA to plan ouster of the Chinese from Baluchistan and break its alliance with pakistan. This can only be done with the help of Baluchistan Liberation Army given full support teaching pakistan a Pakistani lesson
Dear me! Whatever might Saudi-Anglo-America and the Gandhi-Nehru-Ambedkars of the day say? Act in the interests of Indian citizens and to the detriment of foreign countries? This would turn the whole of Nehruvian Defence and Foreign Policy upside down!