Any war, regional and/or global invariably is followed by peace, however unstable/uneasy it might be. Russia-Ukraine war will be no exception. A peep into the history post 2nd World War highlights one startling fact. Supposed “PEACEKEEPERS”, the “P-5s” (permanent members of UN Security Council) have invariably been involved, directly and/or indirectly, in every regional war after 1949. P-5s were/are present even today in 2022 in every conflict that is going on. Although presence of their “BOOTS” is conspicuous by its absence in most regions but it is more than made up by presence of their weapons supplied mostly in a clandestine manner. Their thriving arms industry is the engine that drives unsuspecting innocent citizens of smaller nations to go on a rampage against one another.
Each one of them has abused the power of “VETO” vested into them to maintain global peace mostly for promoting their ulterior military/political aims on most occasions.
United Nations Organisation came into existence with enunciated primary aim of maintaining world peace. Apart from this the most notable “contribution” of UNO has been to spread the message of de-nuclearisation. UN building gallery in New York is flooded with pictures of nuclear holocaust. Ironic but true this message was at the behest of the only nation on the globe (at least as yet), which has used the nuclear weapons not once but twice against a non-nuclear nation.
USA is the only nation to have used weapons of mass destruction (WMD) against Japan on 6th and 9th August, 1945, supposedly to bring a swift end to WW II. What a disgraceful act of moral cowardice! But that is history.
Ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has split the globe as never before. A new non explosive weapon has been used by the west against Russia in form of economic sanctions, which might turn out to be far more explosive than the nukes in long run. Hence the globe is all set to change the parameters that decide ascend-ency of one/few nation/s over others. Economic blackmail as a weapon cannot be allowed to be used by few on any one or many nations.
Notwithstanding utterances by P-5 nations regarding non use of nukes (latest being a collective statement only a few months back), they individually and collectively remain the biggest nuclear threat globally. As is clearly and candidly confirmed by Putin’s doctrine enunciated in 2020, which has been reinforced by Putin’s statement of 28th March, 2022. His statement reads “Russia will use nukes only if its existence is in danger”.
By the same logic Ukraine, too would have been well within its rights to use nukes against Russia but only if it had not “gifted” it away to Russia, probably at the behest of USA. As a nuclear weapons power Ukraine would have thus avoided the ongoing catastrophe with dozens of cities being turned into rubble. As on 28th March, 2022 Russia has attacked 67 Ukrainian cities causing varying degree of damage, which will take decades to repair/erect.
Russia-Ukraine war has unquestionably brought into focus that in prevailing unstable geo-strategic scenario “CURRENCY OF POWER”, the NUKES provide near absolute and total security against any misadventure by a neighbor or a trans-Atlantic power. American invention of WsMD might just become the main instrument of not only maintaining but sustaining global peace, however unstable it might be.
North Korea and Israel are near perfect example of what possession of NUKES can do to its security. An unbelievable and inconceivable diplomatic event of Israel holding a key meeting with top officials of Arab nations is happening as this piece is being written. Camp David and Abraham Accord pale into insignificance. That is the power of nukes..
Possession of nukes alone, however, is no guarantee of ensuring security. It must be accompanied by;
- Credible and Reliable Delivery Systems.
- Ability to absorb “FIRST STRIKE”.
- And most importantly “THE WILL TO USE NUKES BEFORE FIRST STRIKE BY AN ADVERSARY”.
“No First Use” (NFU) precept advocated and “supposedly‟ practiced by all nuclear powers, including India is demonstration of hypocrisy of the highest order. Weapons are not produced for display during national day parades. Weapons are meant to be used well before national security is threatened. However, as expected, there are equally strong proponents of the NFU Policy.
India and China are likely to be the biggest gainers from current war irrespective of the final outcome, provided both nations put their heads down and disengage from “near conflict” situation obtaining for nearly two years. India and China must move away from wishful thinking of “WISH BONE” philosophy and move on to “BACK BONE” philosophy. Complex differences cannot/will not be resolved in a hurry. But hopefully the powers that be of both nations will decide to bury the hatchet, at least temporarily, and move on to create a new world economic order in which Indian and Chinese currencies along with Russian Ruble will ensure that West is not able to use threat of financial sanctions as an economic weapon in future. If major Arab nations can be convinced to join the new world economic order presently led/supported by petro dollars, hegemony of USA/NATO will be given a decent burial. Indeed it would require the best economists to put their heads together and evolve a workable and globally acceptable financial protocol.
No individual nation or a group of nations can match the collective human resource of India and China. Cheap labour availability combined with production of international standard products can/will flood the markets across the globe. EU and USA cannot even dream of challenging combined might of China and India.
Mr Wang Yi’s lightning visit to New Delhi on 27th March might be followed up with visit of our NSA and/or EAM to China. It would be interesting to see if Mr Modi attends forthcoming BRICS summit. My guess is that not only will Mr Modi be invited to attend BRICS summit, Mr Xi might just find time to have a bilateral across the table and not on a swing as happened in Gujrat.
Russian supply of oil and gas at discounted rates will be a fillip to Indian economy. If the Rupee-Ruble trade recommences, which is a must under prevailing situation, it will be a win-win situation for India.
Event of most strategic significance would be if Iran also comes on board. India needs Iranian oil as well and if it is Rupee-Rialmethod, yet again it will be beneficial to India. India is the only nation on the globe which has cordial to extremely friendly relations with Israel and Iran. Israel has always opposed the JCPOA, which was administered by P-5 +1 in 2015. It was thrown into waste paper basket by Trump administration but has been brought out from the “dead” by President Biden. Irrespective of the outcome, Iran’s relations with USA will fluctuate between “extremely hostile‟ to “hostile” in foreseeable future. Hence if Israel considers provisions of new agreement detrimental to its security, an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities (Natanz in particular) cannot be ruled out. India is the only nation which can, and probably will, use its deft diplomacy to keep Iran-Israel flare up under check.
While the global reset is taking place, India will have to examine critically its likely overall military power by 2050 A.D. We have missed the bus of conventional weapons supremacy by few decades. Playing “catch up” will be of little or no significance. Our strength lies in exceedingly well structured space programme. Be it fabrication of modern communication satellites or highly reliable launch vehicles, India’s space programme can match the best. We must develop and operationalise space based weapons capability and further enhance our nuclear capability by perfecting miniaturization of nuclear warheads technology. I guess a 10000 km ICBM development target will also be achieved within the current decade.
A new world order script might be written sooner than later. Former adversaries might join hands to create an unbelievable and inconceivable conglomerate of nations. World will be waiting with bated breath if China, India, Iran, Israel and Russia will be/can be on same page along with Arab nations.
Military alliances of post 2nd WW era have outlived their utility. Warsaw Pact collapsed with disintegration of erstwhile USSR. Time is ripe for “Brain Dead” NATO to be given a decent burial. EU must learn to co-exist with Russia with which many European nations share land borders. USA must realize that its place now in the globe is that of just one of more than 200 nations and not that of international policeman with total freedom to intervene anywhere.
Hopefully in the global reset the policy of expansionism too will be consigned to dust. China will have to make a conscious decision to leave annexation of Taiwan as a bad strategic option, if it really wants to join the new global world order. Without doubt China will succeed in annexing Taiwan if it launches a full-fledged military offensive against Taiwan. In doing so China would have gained few thousand square miles of island territory but it would have lost the opportunity to replace USA as the numerouno nation of the world. Decision to annex Taiwan rests with China. Annexation of Taiwan will not alter the status of South China Sea. USA will not be able to prevent China from annexing Taiwan, threat of nuclear exchange notwithstanding. US double standards are evident as it does not recognize Taiwan as an independent nation.
Personally I treat China with great respect as an adversary. Our formidable response post Galwan event has conveyed our clear and unambiguous opposition to policy of expansionism by force. China, too respects a formidable adversary. I wonder if Mr Wang’s lightning trip to New Delhi was to explore India’s stand should China launch an offensive against Taiwan. Military strategists have opined that China will annex Taiwan any time in near future. That will be victory of Chinese ego but a great strategic loss. China is unlikely to forfeit long term gains for short term victory.
And finally China is in no position to go to war with India but that does not imply that we should let our guard down.