Indian Defence Review

India is wary of the ISIS because of its links to extremist groups that wish to resume jihad against India. An ISIS document found in the tribal areas of Pakistan underlines that war in India is one of the group’s aims, along with destabilizing the region as a whole. In fact, for ISIS a war between India and Pakistan could well be seen as a chief regional goal. Given the ISIS track record in Syria and Iraq, building an army out of disgruntled Taliban fighters with their guns trained on India is a threat New Delhi cannot afford.12

The reason the region as a whole might be persuaded to unite behind a settlement is that the Taliban opponents of peace efforts have either joined or are drawing closer to the Islamic State. In recent months the Iraqi-based Islamist group has been establishing a stronger presence in eastern Afghanistan and has killed a number of local Taliban who have opposed it. The Islamic State, or ISIS, is in the unique position of being feared and hated by the West as well as every country from the Middle East to Central Asia for its terrorism and revolutionary agenda. This choice of ‘what is good for the world and for Afghanistan’ — the Taliban or the ISIS ? ; is a new paradigm which most strategic thinkers now appreciate.

In addition there is the Gilgit – Baltistan area adjoining Afghanistan which India claims. The province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is to the west, the Wakhan Corridor of Afghanistan to the north, Xinjiang, China, to the east and northeast and Jammu and Kashmir to the southeast. The region, together with ‘Azad Kashmir’ or POK, is disputed between India, and Pakistan. This strategic region in the north provides the only vital link with China. It is also on the key route of the ambitious China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), linking western China to southern Pakistan’s Gwadar Port with a network of roads, highways, railways and investment parks.

Gilgit-Baltistan presently consists of nine districts, has a population approaching one million, an area of approximately 28,000 square miles (73,000 km2), Pakistan is working on raising the constitutional status of its occupied Gilgit-Baltistan to address China’s concerns over the $46-billion economic corridor through the strategic region.13

While changing the Kashmir narrative is important, India needs to pay serious attention to the changing nature of power play that has brought PoK to the forefront of China’s geopolitical calculations. The region came under spotlight after Xi Jinping announced plans for developing the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and pledged USD 46 billion for building transport and energy connectivity to link Pakistan with China’s ambitious flagship project ‘One Belt, One Road’ (OBOR). India’s national interests lie in a peaceful and stable Afghanistan, an Afghanistan which is definitely not under the military, political and economic influence of either Pakistan or China. Our best bet is cooperation with the US, non involvement militarily but sustained meaningful political and economic support.

What Afghanistan can Expect from India

India has done well to realize that a constructive role in Afghanistan will be necessary for its own security and for it to be a global player in the comity of nations. Afghanistan has rich cultural and heritage ties with India and looks forward to it as a successful Asian democracy. The population, by and large is pro-India. India so far has invested in excess of $2 billion for a number of areas of infrastructural development, capacity building, rural development, military training, education etc. and wisely kept out of any call for direct military intervention. India also looks forward to cooperating with Afghanistan in issues relating to disaster management, counter -terrorism and maritime security.

India believes that sustainable development of Afghanistan requires long-term investment in Afghanistan that can help it exploit its natural resource wealth. India is, thus, at the forefront of the promotion of investment in Afghanistan and a consortium of public and private Indian companies has been selected to make one of the biggest investments in the country’s mining sector, in the Hajigak iron ore reserves. Indian and Afghan authorities consul each other regarding early completion of Salma Dam, New Afghan Parliament building, Doshi Charikar Project, Restoration of store place and it is expected for completion in 2015. India provided high protein biscuits through WFP in schools in Afghanistan in all provinces. India also gave US$ 1 Million assistance for flood relief programme in Badakshan in May 2014. India signed MoU for 57 projects in July 2014 and for 13 ongoing small development projects (SDPs) in October 2014 (under US$ 100 million commitment for SDP) covering Public Health, Education, and community infrastructure in various provinces of Afghanistan. In July 2014, the Embassy completed the scholarship cycle for the academic year 2013-2014, utilizing all the 1000 slots dedicated to Afghans. Besides a record of 100 % achievement, it also had record number of women students – 125.India also sent more than 500 Officials under ITEC program for various capacity building courses in India.

India doesn’t share a border with Afghanistan and Afghanistan being landlocked, sea trade with it is not possible. That means, India has to depend on Pakistan’s airspace to deliver aid to Afghanistan. This makes the delivery of a lot of essential things from India harder and contributions less noticeable than they should be. India has been urging Pakistan to allow transit rights for transporting Indian goods to Afghanistan but Pakistan has consistently blocked Indian efforts as it just cannot tolerate the very thought of India and Afghanistan coming together. Consider PM Modi’s expanded remark to get a clearer picture: “President Ghani shared his impressive vision for Afghanistan’s prosperity, based on its talent, resources and location. We believe that Afghanistan’s direct surface link to India and the rest of South Asia, and increased connectivity to sea, could turn Afghanistan into a hub that connects Asia’s diverse regions and beyond.

“We are ready to welcome Afghan trucks at the ICP Attari. We are also prepared to join the successor agreement to Afghan Pakistan Trade and Transit Agreement. This will re-establish one of the oldest trading routes of South Asia. I also reaffirmed my commitment to take the Chabahar Port project in Iran forward.” New Delhi plans to invest in Iran’s southern Chabahar port, a potential rival to the China-funded Gwadar port in Pakistan, and needs a tripartite agreement on a transit route to connect Iran via Afghanistan. The Indian government is investing more than US$100 million in the expansion of the port in south-eastern Iran which will serve as a hub for the transportation of transit goods. Besides as a goodwill gesture, India has also constructed a new Parliament complex for the Afghan government at a cost of INR 710 crores (USD 115 million). This building was inaugurated on 25th December 2015.

Pakistan wants to reach out to Tajikistan which it cannot do without the help of Afghanistan. Pakistan, Afghanistan and Tajikistan have almost finalised draft of a landmark trilateral transit agreement among the three countries, hitherto known by different names. Afghanistan is calling it APTTTA or Afghanistan-Pakistan-Tajikistan Trilateral Transit Trade Agreement while Pakistan called it APTTTTA when it sent in January this year its final draft proposal to Afghan and Tajik governments and sought their views. It remains to be seen if Pakistan will be ready to give southern connectivity to gain northern connectivity. The “Take Tajikistan from us but give Afghanistan to India” has changed the narrative in the South Asian context. But it is definitely a giant leap forward in India-Afghanistan bilateral relations.14

Now coming on to military cooperation. India has been wise not to get involved militarily and must continue doing so. Military aid and training of Afghan forces in India is a different matter. The supply of the assault helicopters will be the first offensive weapon to Afghanistan since India signed a strategic partnership agreement with Kabul in 2011 much to the consternation of Pakistan. India has donated light helicopters, vehicles and provided military training in the past also. Pakistan, bordered by India to the east and Afghanistan to the west, has in the past frowned on Indian military assistance to Afghanistan, seeing it as part of a plan to undermine its stability from the rear. It is in India’s interest to limit itself to economic assistance. “This kind of deal will definitely be watched very closely here and people will be concerned about this,” said Ejaz Haider, a Lahore-based security analyst.15

Conclusion

India’s quest to achieve domestic, regional and global security depends on a large amount on its foreign policy, specifically in its participation and handling of the Af-Pak card. It needs to engage with other regional and extra regional players and participate as an effective member of the global coalition.

“Bolstered by the fact that Russia helped the United States reach a nuclear accord with Iran, the collective interest in fighting ISIS offers another opportunity for international cooperation. Nations like the United States, Russia, India and Pakistan may have differing interests, but the Islamic State represents a threat to modern civilization itself — and to the goals and aspirations that these states, each in their own way, share”. Most certainly, what Afghanistan doesn’t need is more of the ‘great game’. India should not try to fish in the troubled waters. As a responsible regional power, its role should be to heal the Afghan wounds, not to feast on the blood that oozes out of them.16

The potential for Pakistan and India to come together over Afghan peace is fueled by recognition of the ISIS threat. One reason some Taliban oppose Mullah Mansour’s pursuit of a peace process is that they resent Pakistani pressure to come to the negotiating table. This demonstrates both a real Pakistani commitment to an Afghan settlement (though of course Pakistan’s views on the form of a settlement may still differ very considerably from those of India) and the fact that the Taliban as a whole are not Pakistani puppets. Notwithstanding the ISIS threat, reaching an Afghan settlement that would include a new constitution, a Taliban share in government, the withdrawal of foreign troops and the exclusion of foreign terrorists will be extremely difficult, US leadership is essential.17