Indian Defence Review

J-20 Mighty Dragon

China’s leaders recognise that aerospace mastery is critical if it is to become a military superpower. The dragon is closing the technology gap with the US and Russia and it is likely to take a lead in niche areas before long. In future, America will probably judge the capability requirements of its armed forces – especially its air and naval forces – against China, not its traditional rival Russia. Should India be apprehensive about China’s advances in aerospace technology? The short answer is – Yes. China has invested heavily in both air and space and taken a big lead over India. And that lead is still widening.

One of the most distinct features in an otherwise perplexing geopolitical scene is China’s rapid rise. It is already the pre-eminent Asian power and it hardly bothers to conceal its ambition to be a global superpower. Its remarkable economic, scientific and technological achievements go hand in hand with a comprehensive military modernisation programme. Consequently, its international profile is growing. It is becoming more assertive in its foreign policy, much to the dismay of its neighbours. The Chinese dragon is unfazed that its combative attitude is putting it at loggerheads with countries like India, Japan and the United States (US). Conversely, the US is wary of the prospect of military conflict with China and is finding it economically burdensome to maintain its longstanding military predominance in the Asia-Pacific region. China’s stance and the consequent threat to regional peace and stability, is naturally of concern to India too.

The Chinese leadership’s wide-ranging ‘Made in China 2025’ plan revealed in 2015, focuses on making the nation a global manufacturing power by 2025. It lays down clear goals for the period up to 2035 and then up to 2050. Its main emphasis is on manufacturing and it includes a sharp focus on innovation and technology – two pet themes of President Xi Jinping. Like the US and Russia, China sees advances in aerospace technology as a prestige symbol and crucial to military might. Accordingly, the action plan places aerospace technology close to the top of the list of ten key sectors that include information technology, artificial intelligence and robotics.

Beg, Borrow or Steal Technology

China’s military aerospace modernisation has advanced rapidly over the past two or three years. There are allegations that it has gained much of its technology illegally, especially so in aerospace. Analysts note striking similarities, for instance, between China’s advanced fighters and American and Russian combat jets. China has turned reverse engineering and hacking into a fine art as it strives to bridge the gap with the US in stealth aircraft, advanced missiles and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV). To be fair, China also acquires technology legally from the open market and skilfully adapts it to military use. It is acquiring stakes in many small but savvy US companies which in time, could give it unfettered access to advanced technologies. And it is developing expertise on its own, even forging ahead of its rivals in some fields.

Supercomputing is a telling example. Just two decades ago it was unthinkable that China might develop the world’s most powerful supercomputer. In the event, it holds that record from 2013 onwards, leaving the US far behind. China aims to be a world leader in artificial intelligence by 2030 and is sure to use this capability for military applications, especially aerospace. The US tries to impede the flow of dual-use technology and counter China’s industrial espionage efforts, but it is a losing battle due to the symbiotic relationship between the two giant economies. According to the 2017 Annual Report of the US-China Economic & Security Review Commission released in November 2017, China is seeking dominance in several high-tech areas in its pursuit of advanced weaponry. These include manoeuvrable missile warheads, hypersonic weapons, laser and beam weapons, electromagnetic rail-guns, counter-space weapons, and robots endowed with artificial intelligence. “China’s achievement of a surprise breakthrough in one of these technologies is possible, due to the secrecy surrounding these programmes and the uncertain nature of advanced weapons development in general,” the report says.

It is no coincidence that most of China’s objects of desire have a strong aerospace link. Realising that it cannot be militarily stronger than the US in the foreseeable future, China’s strategic aim is simply to keep US forces as far from its shores as possible. And it sees advanced aerial platforms and weaponry as the most potent way to achieve this goal. In turn, the White House’s National Security Strategy dated December 2017, considers China’s growing prowess, especially in aerospace technology, a threat to US military and economic might.

Fielding the Fifth Generation

The Chinese aerospace industry is determinedly pursuing advanced manned fighters, unmanned systems, Surface-to-Air Missiles (SAM), Air-to-Air Missiles (AAM), and radar systems to equip the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF). Side-by-side, smaller companies are developing supporting technologies like Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar, automated cockpit, stealth and software to link everything together. The Chinese have decades of experience in adapting stolen aerospace technology to their needs so as to produce near world class products.

In February 2018, China announced that its fifth-generation Chengdu J-20A fighter had entered combat service. It is the first stealth jet of any nation other than the US to become operational. It is produced by the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) which also builds the fifth-generation Shenyang FC-31 and the older FC-1 and FC-8 fighters, besides various types of UAVs. Chinese hackers are accused of misappropriating the designs of the Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor and F-35 Lightning II which were then used by AVIC to develop the J-20A and FC-31 respectively. In fact, Su Bin, 51, a Chinese national, pleaded guilty to this charge and was se ntenced to 46 months in prison. Be that as it may, the debate now is about whether the Chinese clones of the F-22 and the F-35 can match the originals in combat. And the verdict is – highly unlikely.

While the FC-31 is yet to enter service, the J-20A is clearly underpowered. China has struggled to produce modern civilian and military jet engines since the turn of the century, with over $20 billion invested between 2010 and 2015 and another $300 billion expected over the next two decades. But it hasn’t yet managed to operationalise the indigenous Xian WS-15 engine, originally intended for the J-20A. Instead, it has been forced to use the WS-10B engine, that powers the fourth-generation J-10 and J-11 fighters which severely limits the J-20A’s capability, affects its manoeuverability and fuel efficiency as also deprives the jet of super-cruise capability. Super cruise allows stealth fighters to fly at supersonic speeds without using afterburners, which makes them harder to detect.

Another reason why the J-20A won’t match the US F-22 is that it needed a number of advanced technologies which the Chinese could not have mastered in such a short span of time, especially certain specialised techniques to reduce the radar and thermal signatures. But China could conceivably produce the inferior J-20A in large enough numbers to overwhelm the fewer F-22s and F-35s that America can field against it.

Click to buy Subscription

Mighty Missiles

A February 2017 report of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) found that, “China appears to be reaching near-parity with the West” in various areas of military technology, including aerospace technology. It revealed that one Chinese AAM had no Western equivalent and that China seemed to have mastered the art of developing AAMs of various types including short-range missiles and in “what could be the world’s longest-range air-to-air missile”. The extra long-range AAMs are obviously against airborne support systems like the Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) aircraft and airborne refuelling tankers, to force them to keep a safe distance from China’s shores, where they will lose much of their military utility.

Unmanned and Unlimited

Hackers are also credited with China’s spectacular progress in UAV production over the past decade or so. One reason why the latest Chinese UAVs closely resemble US drones and can even compete with them in the international market is technology clandestinely acquired from the US government and private companies like General Atomics. The China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) produces the Caihong 5 (CH-5) or Rainbow 5. This highly capable attack and reconnaissance UAV has an operational range of approximately 2,000km with satellite communication. It is likely that this range can be greatly increased. CASC sources claim that the performance and operational capability of the CH-5 is comparable with that of the US-made General Atomics MQ-9 Reaper and it comes at half the price.

Then there is AVIC’s next-generation Medium-Altitude Long-Endurance (MALE) UAV, the Wing Loong II. It is now being tested in the strike mode and reportedly hit five successive targets with five different kinds of missiles during a recent flight test. In December 2017, China’s National University of Defence Technology conducted a “swarming” test involving about two dozen small UAVs. The entire group functioned as a single entity with portions of the flight conducted autonomously.

China has also become the world’s third-largest arms exporter, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), which is dedicated to research into conflict, armaments, arms control and disarmament. And unmanned systems and missiles form a significant slice of these exports. Although the quality and reliability of Chinese systems is not always assured, customers can expect roughly 75 percent of the capability of Western alternatives for 50 percent of the price – a bargain offer. Consequently, about a dozen countries, some of whom were spurned by Western suppliers, have bought armed Chinese UAVs.

Civilian Challenge

After decades of struggle, China’s civilian aerospace industry finally seems set for take-off, with the new C919 168-seat single-aisle airliner making its first flight in May 2017. The C919 is manufactured by state-owned Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC). China’s first two commercial jets were rather disappointing. The Shanghai Y-10 was abandoned after just two aircraft were built. As for the COMAC ARJ21 78-seat regional jet, only three have been delivered till date and commercial flights have been temporarily halted. Will it be third time lucky for the C919?

A long road lies ahead before the C919 achieves certification. By the time it enters service, the technology will be at least a generation behind other airliners. According to the Chinese news agency, Xinhua, the C919 has received 815 orders from 28 customers. However, these orders are mainly from Chinese domestic airlines and most are options rather than firm orders. Ultimately, airlines and their passengers may feel more secure with tried and tested aircraft from Boeing and Airbus. AVIC is also working on a new regional turboprop, the MA700, as a competitor to the ATR 72 and Bombardier Q400. Overall, unlike the military domain, the Chinese civil aerospace industry is yet to prove capable of producing commercially viable civilian aircraft, leave alone being able to compete with the established players.

Hypersonic Hyperactivity

Hypersonic flight (anything faster than Mach 5) is at the cutting edge of research. It has the potential to revolutionise both military and civilian aerospace. The hypersonic technology race is intensifying and China is investing heavily in it. In fact, it is probably the only serious competitor to the US and Russia. China is building a large military-grade hypersonic wind tunnel, expected to be the world’s fastest facility of this kind when construction is complete by 2020.

It is also working on a variety of technologies necessary to build a practical hypersonic vehicle, such as plasma jets to steer hypersonic thrust, advanced heat resistant composites and exotic fuels. Like the US, China is investigating both space planes and scramjets (supersonic combustion ramjets). A hypersonic space plane could circumnavigate the globe in two or three hours, well out of the reach of conventional air defences. The most likely configuration would be a combined cycle engine, consisting of a turbofan stage for the period from take-off till supersonic flight and a ramjet stage for the subsequent acceleration to hypersonic flight.

Scramjets have a variety of applications, including space launches, hypersonic combat aircraft and airliners, as well as high-speed cruise missiles to replace ballistic missiles. Scramjet powered missiles are lighter and more efficient than conventional ones because they are air-breathing and don’t need to carry a separate supply of oxidizer.

China has already tested a scramjet boosted from a land-based launcher. It plans to launch a home-grown, reusable space plane for the first time in 2020. Since 2013, China has also conducted at least seven successful test flights of its Hypersonic Glide Vehicle (HGV), the DF-ZF, capable of speeds of over 5,000 kilometres per hour. Flying in the near-space region of 20 to 100km altitude, such HGVs cover far greater distances than ballistic missiles, before gliding at hypersonic speeds towards their intended target.

This poses a severe challenge to early-warning systems and lessens the response time available to the defender. An HGV-based missile can therefore breach most defences without suffering any loss of manoeuverability. China probably tested the nuclear capable DF-17 ballistic missile coupled with the HGV in November 2017 and is expected to reach initial operating capability by 2020.

Space Success

China sees space as an effective way to showcase its technological competence. Thanks to a carefully considered and well-structured space programme, backed by enormous financial clout, it has achieved competence in many fields. And it is not diffident about its achievements. In 2017, Chinese Academy of Engineering academician Wu Weiren, who is also the chief designer of China’s lunar exploration programme, said, “We used 37 years to complete the first 100 launches, but only seven years for the second 100.” Thanks to its Long March 5 carrier rocket, China is now firmly in the zone of heavy-lift rocketry. China’s Chang’e-5 unmanned lunar sample return mission is due for launch in 2019.

By 2020, its navigation system Beidou will achieve global coverage. It will launch the core module of its manned space station around 2020 and intends to make the station fully operational by 2022. In fact, this may be the world’s only space station after 2024 if the International Space Station (ISS) is retired as planned. China also plans a manned lunar exploration mission around 2024, with two Chinese taikonauts scheduled to collect soil from the moon. Looking ahead to 2050, China may have established a permanent research and development base on the moon and set foot on Mars.

However, impressive as China’s space capability seems, it needs to be viewed in perspective. Its most advanced Long March 5 rocket can place 25 tonne of cargo in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and could possibly transport a five-tonne payload to Mars. In contrast, the Falcon Heavy, developed by the 16-year-old private American company SpaceX can already place 63.8tonne payload in LEO and take a 16.8tonne payload to Mars. In future, China’s Long March 9, intended mainly for human lunar missions, may have a maximum payload capacity of 140 tonnes to LEO and 50 tonnes to Lunar Transfer Orbit (LTO). But that depends on how successful its development and testing programme is.

China is unlikely to be at a disadvantage in military application of space. While paying lip service to space arms control, it does not shy away from space weapons. Its arsenal may potentially include direct-ascent Anti-Satellite (ASAT) missiles, ground-based Directed Energy Weapons (DEW) and the capability to execute rendezvous manoeuvres for destroying or grabbing satellites. It is developing and may even have clandestinely deployed, some DEW and satellite jammers. However, chastened by the international outcry following its January 2007 ASAT weapon test that generated the largest space debris field in history, it is now more circumspect in its testing.

China has already begun training of military units specially meant for counter-space operations. The ultimate aim will be to pose a threat to US Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites in Medium Earth Orbit (MEO) as well as many strategically important US government assets like missile early warning satellites, military and civilian communications satellites and intelligence-related satellites irrespective of which orbit they operate in.

When Will India Get Going?

China’s leaders recognise that aerospace mastery is critical if it is to become a military superpower. The dragon is closing the technology gap with the US and Russia and it is likely to take a lead in niche areas before long. In future, America will probably judge the capability requirements of its armed forces – especially its air and naval forces – against China, not its traditional rival Russia. Should India be apprehensive about China’s advances in aerospace technology? The short answer is – Yes. China has invested heavily in both air and space and taken a big lead over India. And that lead is still widening.

China has two modern fourth-generation and two fifth-generation combat jet programmes running concurrently, the only limitation being its failure to produce indigenous power plants. However, given its steely determination, the scale of its efforts and the sums it is investing, it is more than likely that this obstacle will be surmounted before too long. And China’s “all-weather friend” Pakistan is likely to be among the early beneficiaries of Chinese military aerospace success.

In contrast, India is badly off, ‘Make in India’ notwithstanding. All it has is the less than satisfactory Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) Tejas Mk 1, 1A and the “pie in the sky” Tejas Mk 2. There’s also an unresolved tussle between the Indo-Russian Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA), based on Russia’s Sukhoi Su-57 and the indigenous Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA). India’s civilian aerospace capability is mediocre to say the least.

The country is somewhat better placed in space, thanks to the sterling efforts of the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO). However, ISRO focuses mainly on satellites for communication, weather forecasting and remote sensing. Its manned space programme is a decade or more behind China’s. And the maximum launch capability of its heaviest Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV) Mk III is just eight tonne to LEO and four tonne to Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit (GTO). India is far behind China in hypersonic technology and has no military capability in space worth the name.

Much of India’s lacklustre performance in the crucial aerospace domain can be traced to a misguided faith in the ability of the public sector. It is essential now to involve both the public and private sectors and make progress in aerospace technology a national mission. As the US Air Force Chief of Staff General David L Goldfein said in May 2017, “We must push the boundaries of technology in every area. Our adversaries aren’t standing still. They are looking for every advantage they can get.” It is an attitude India needs to imbibe. If India ignores China’s challenge, the dragon’s flight could become rather unnerving for this country.