Indian Defence Review

The Islamic world is in turbulence for some time now; whether these movements will lead to a more liberal order or will the religious groups that are lurking beneath the surface grab power once the present regimes have been toppled is not yet clear. In Pakistan, unlike in West Asia and Africa, it is clear that the society is moving towards radicalisation; here, a strong antidemocratic movement is pulling the society towards radicalisation that may lead to the establishment of a rigid Wahabi regime on the lines of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. Pakistan possesses nuclear weapons and has a strong army that is favourably inclined towards radical religious groups, which it considers as important strategic assets.

Growing religious intolerance between various religious factions and internal terrorism in Pakistan have gradually become major destabilising factors and a dangerous threat to the very existence of Pakistan as a nation state.

However, the so-called strategic assets are slowly leading Pakistan to ruin. Growing religious intolerance between various religious factions and internal terrorism in Pakistan have gradually become major destabilising factors and a dangerous threat to the very existence of Pakistan as a nation state. Killing of moderate leaders, frequent attacks on Shiites and the destruction of Sufi shrines show the advent of a most violent culture under the influence of Wahabi organisations. Moderate Muslims, who want the current trend towards radicalisation to be controlled, have been reduced to a helpless minority.

The gradual collapse of the central government in Pakistan seems likely, and if the central authority crumbles, it may to lead to fierce infighting among various jihadi groups and the violence may spill over to neighbouring countries. In these conditions, communal tensions will be whipped up to kick-start jihadi movements and terrorist attacks on Kashmir and other parts of India may be intensified.

Pakistan has a very large congregation of poor Muslims and this makes it a natural breeding ground of Islamic radicalism. Its strategic location in South Asia provides the Taliban and al-Qaeda and their associates secured bases and sanctuaries for launching the global jihadi movement across large swathes of Asia. The efforts of the Pakistan government to curb fundamentalist trends that provide recruits for the jihadi movement have generally been feeble and ineffective. In the prevailing conditions, the secular groups in Pakistan seem to be losing political support and the jihadi militants now dictate terms in many parts of the country.

The efforts of the Pakistan government to curb fundamentalist trends that provide recruits for the jihadi movement have generally been feeble and ineffective.

To add to these problems, there is an ongoing war on Pakistan–Afghanistan borders and a large number of civilians have been killed here by rival groups in many urban areas, especially in the eastern provinces of Afghanistan along the Pakistani border. Afghan officials maintain cross-border firings, and raids across the frontiers from Pakistan are a part of a well-planned strategy.

This cross-border war between Afghanistan and Pakistan militaries has gone on for a long time, and in this war, Afghanistan and Pakistan armies have used artillery and other heavy weapons against each other. The clashes are, however, sporadic. Earlier only a few dozen were killed at a time during these skirmishes, but lately, the clashes have intensified and the frequency of these skirmishes is increasing. Occasionally, when some media personnel are able to witness these clashes, they are informed that the Pakistani military was attacking U.S. helicopters conducting cross-border raids into Pakistan’s tribal areas.

The shooting and attacks are not one sided, and both justify these clashes by calling them self-defence, but there is more to them than meets the eye. Often, Karzai has threatened to send Afghan troops across the borders into Pakistan to destroy bases that are being used by Pakistan for launching cross-border raids. On the other hand, Pakistan blames Afghanistan for helping Pakistani insurgents in carrying on war against the country.

Unless regimes such as Pakistan, which are allowing the radical Islamist groups to spread their wings unhindered, are persuaded to cut their ties with them and follow the path of peace towards non-Islamic regimes, freedom and democracy and human rights will be in grave danger throughout the world.

The main problem is that the Durand Line, separating Afghanistan and Pakistan, is highly porous and the Pashtuns on either side of the border have never recognised it as a legitimate dividing line between them. The people in these areas move freely across the Durand Line and tribes, communities and families intermix and intermarry. To add to the confusion, U.S. armed drones continue to mount frequent attacks on suspected militant hideouts and assemblies in this area. Although some prominent militant leaders have been killed in these attacks, adverse reactions to the attacks have expanded the support base of the insurgents.

There is little doubt that Afghanistan and Pakistan are waging a quiet unacknowledged war, in which with militants and irregulars often change sides. The border war is not as extensive or as intense as the internal turmoil both countries are facing, but tensions between Islamabad and Kabul frequently reach a boiling point, diminishing the chances of peace in the region. Pakistan aims to help the Taliban to power as they believe the Taliban will ensure a special relationship with Pakistan once the Americans depart.1

The complex relationship between the Pakistan army and the various Islamist groups the army presently supports has an uncertain future given the growing number of terrorist attacks.There is apprehension in the international circles that continued terrorist attacks on sensitive targets could create unending turmoil that may eventually lead to the total collapse of Pakistan’s economy. The army has little understanding of the economic problems and may not be able to cope with the multiple challenges posed by a collapsing economy. There is no silver bullet—and certainly no American or Saudi silver bullet that can solve the long-term economic problems of Pakistan. Their pouring money into the country to buy support has created more problems than it has solved. In any case, this kind of economic support helps only in a limited way.

Many experts believe that Pakistani economy, which seemed quite robust some time ago, is on the verge of collapse. Power disruptions, which are now widespread and common, are crippling business houses, which are the lifeblood of Pakistan’s large urban centres and smaller townships. Larger and better organised business establishments buy diesel and gas generators and partly manage to overcome the shortages. Some others have curtailed their work to get it done whenever power is available. This situation is creating large scale unemployment, and the country is rapidly losing the race between population growth and jobs.2

The biggest challenge to Pakistan is, however, from the global jihadi movement; their intervention will spread unrest, which may take the shape of a prolonged civil war and lead to an unending and crippling internal turmoil. There are no easy solutions in sight for the chaotic situation developing in Pakistan as it is evident that the jihadi insurgents will not give up their efforts to convert Pakistan into an Islamic state where strict Sharia laws will be enforced in the foreseeable future.

The question is, will the Pakistan military eventually realise that fostering such tools of destruction has not helped the country in any way to achieve its strategic objectives?

All terrorist organisations in Pakistan are, in any case, military tools and proxies that have been trained and maintained by the military to conduct terrorist attacks. The terrorists who attacked Mumbai could not have planned and executed such a daring operation without help and operational assistance from Pakistan military. The question is, will the Pakistan military eventually realise that fostering such tools of destruction has not helped the country in any way to achieve its strategic objectives?

A Pakistan dominated by a strong religious hierarchy after a violent takeover by a radical group with close links with the Afghan Taliban will pose danger to the entire South Asian region, and an effective global war against countries that are breeding and nurturing terrorist organisations needs to be waged, otherwise, the war against the radical form of Islam propagated by al-Qaeda and the Taliban cannot be won. Unless regimes such as Pakistan, which are allowing the radical Islamist groups to spread their wings unhindered, are persuaded to cut their ties with them and follow the path of peace towards non-Islamic regimes, freedom and democracy and human rights will be in grave danger throughout the world.

Notes and References

1. Joshua Foust. “The Undeclared Af-Pak War.” The AFPAK Channel, 15 March 2011. <http://afpak.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/03/15/the_undeclared_afpak_war>.
2. Teresita C. Schaffer. “Pakistan’s Broken Economy.” The AFPAK Channel, 15 March 2011. <http://afpak.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/03/15/pakistans_broken_economy>.