Indian Defence Review

Cost-Benefit Analysis

It is beyond the scope of this paper to present a detailed cost-benefit analysis of reducing emissions, principally Black Carbon and non-CO2 GHG, in the Himalayas. However, available information points towards huge savings by way of improved health conditions, especially of women and savings in the energy sector. Other benefits include the avoidance of disasters caused by climate change such as bursting of glacial lakes due to increased levels of glacial melt. Huge benefits would also accrue by preventing climate-induced drought/floods in the lower regions such as the Indo-Gangetic plains, Southern China and Bangladesh. Regional strategies for mitigation of Climate Change in the Himalayas and adjoining regions will address key issues such as food productivity and water security for large parts of South Asia, South East Asia and China.

This would again lead to reduced tensions within the region. A review of the economics of climate change by the British Government states that, if no action is taken now, the overall cost and risks of climate change could be equivalent to the loss of five per cent of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) each year. If a wider range of risks and impacts is considered, the estimated damage could reach as high as 20 per cent of global GDP.

Time Factor and Regional Perspective

Leading climatologists have warned of the need to act immediately to cut GHG emissions, with a window of 10-15 years for global emissions to peak and decline, and a goal of at least a 50 per cent reduction by 2050. However, it is to be understood that from the regional perspective of the Himalayan ecology, we may not have so much time. Moreover, the Himalayan region will witness increased population pressures in the coming decade. This is all the more reason that emission reduction strategies must worked out and executed at the earliest. Concentrated efforts must be made to drastically reduce aerosol and non-CO2 emissions within the next five years, primarily to cut down on the formation of the Brown Haze over the Himalayas. If this is not done, the ecological damage to the Himalayas and especially the Himalayan glaciers may be irreversible.

There is no time to be lost in carrying out further exhaustive research and analytical studies. Findings of credible research studies already carried out need to be taken into account. The stress should be on identifying and categorising the principal sources of aerosol, Black Carbon and non-CO2 emissions such as Nitrous Oxide. This will need to be followed by working out strategies for achieving the required scale of reduction for these emissions within a mutually agreed timeframe.

The Way Ahead

The five Himalayan countries and Bangladesh, together with certain other global agencies should form an organisation to formulate and execute a joint strategy for mitigation of climate change in the Himalayan region. Such an organisation could be modeled along the lines of the existing Arctic Union.

Advantages of Regional Cooperation on the Himalayas

A joint strategy by the six countries will have tremendous advantages. It will ensure that there is an integrated, time-bound approach to tackling the issue with the active involvement of other concerned International Agencies.

Framework for A Joint Strategy

A joint strategy for emission reduction in the Himalayan region could be based on the following parameters:

• Identifying the extent of the zone requiring intervention. This would include the Himalayan ranges and contiguous areas. Broadly, the Himalayan Ranges would be the core zone and the contiguous areas would be the outer zone. Initially, the outer zone could be for a radius of fifty kilometres from the core zone. The outer zone could then be increased periodically till a maximum laid-down radius is covered under the action plan.
• An analysis of the interventions required in the core zone and the outer zone in order to reduce emissions and mitigate climate change and to stabilise the effects of global warming to the extent possible.
• The countries concerned will then have to sign an agreement on the various interventions and the timeframe within which these will be implemented.
• The process will need to be facilitated by the United Nations and other organisations such as UNFCC, IPCC, IUCN, FAO, UNEP and ICIMOD which should also be involved in organising the required funding mechanisms.

Recommended Interventions

Certain measures that could be considered are enumerated below. Some of these will have to be applied more stringently and on priority in the core zone as compared to the outer zone.

• Industries. Certain types of industries will have to be banned and phased out. Alternatively, they should be permitted only on introduction of upgraded technology that will sufficiently minimise emissions. They will also require financial assistance to incorporate cleaner technologies. There is good scope for reducing BC emissions by improved technology for thousands of brick kilns in the region. Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh may need financial support for installing cleaner technologies. An international funding mechanism will be required for this purpose.
• Automobiles. Automobiles in both the core zone and the outer zone should convert to environment friendly fuel. As far as the Government of India is concerned, priority for converting to CNG or LPG should to given to Jammu, Dehradun, Srinagar, Shimla and Manali. All the countries concerned maintain a very large military presence in the core zone. Thousands of Army trucks move within the core zone every day. Therefore, environment friendly fuel for these vehicles is essential. However, in view of logistical considerations, this may not be practical in the near time. Hence, the Himalayan countries must ensure that military vehicles plying in the Himalayan region conform to the required emission norms. Adequate mass transport facilities such as buses should be provided for tourists and pilgrims. A simple cost effective innovation developed and patented by Somender Singh, a Mysore-based technician is also available for reducing vehicular emissions and improving fuel efficiency.
• Road Construction Activity. There is constant road construction and maintenance activity in the Himalayan region. The obsolete road construction methods require burning large quantities of coal tar. This contributes substantially to the GHG, Black Carbon and aerosol emissions in the Himalayas. Hence there is an urgent need to introduce cleaner technologies for road construction and repair in the Himalayas.
• Demography. Demographic pressure always translates to greater levels of human activity. Concentrations of populations should be avoided. The Government should encourage the development of well-planned satellite townships in the Himalayan region rather than increased growth of cities such as Kathmandu, Jammu and Shimla.
• Forest Land Restoration. An intensive forest land restoration programme by the Himalayan nations will be of vital importance. The establishment of trans-boundary National Parks could be considered. This would be a useful initiative by neighboring countries to improve the management of forests along border areas. Ecological Territorial Army Battalions comprising ex-servicemen will be able to play a very important role in forest land restoration in the Himalayas in India.
• Improved Technologies In Domestic Fuel Consumption. There is good scope for improving technologies for domestic fuel consumption requirements such as cooking. The National Programme on Improved Cook (NPIC) stoves in Himachal Pradesh is a good example. Such initiatives will have dual benefits of emission reduction combined with the improved health of women and children.
• Land Use Practices. Burning of huge agriculture residue such as paddy in Punjab and other parts of North India could have a direct influence on the Brown Cloud over the Himalayas. Burning of agriculture residue is a common practice in some of the Himalayan states. The fires lit in the fields often spread to the Himalayan foothills causing forest fires. These issues need to be addressed in the areas close to the Himalayas. There is considerable stress on the Himalayan landscape due to overgrazing. Slash and burn cultivation in Eastern Himalayas must also be taken into account.
• Mega-City Hotspots. There will be a need to concurrently reduce Black Carbon emissions in some of the identified mega-city hot spots closer to the Himalayas. These could be New Delhi, Kolkata, Dhaka and Karachi.

Conclusion

There is sufficient evidence to indicate that regional emissions of non-CO2 GHG, aerosols and Black Carbon are key factors in the rise of temperatures in the Himalayan region. Reducing these emissions will result in mitigating the overall effect of climate change in the Himalayas. Massive forest land restoration programmes across the Himalayan region will also be essential. In turn, this could check the trend of reduced snowfall and rapid glacier retreat.

All this could best be achieved by forming an alliance of the five Himalayan countries and Bangladesh along the lines of the existing Arctic Union. International agencies will need to facilitate the process. The concept of cutting down on regional emissions, combined with efforts to improve the forest cover could herald a new dimension to dealing with Climate Change. It is for consideration that the idea could be applied to other similar eco-regions such as the Alps.

International agreements such as the Kyoto Protocol and the Bali Declaration call for achieving desired level of reduction in emissions by 2050. The Himalayas and other similar eco-regions may not have that much time. Hence there is an urgent need for the Himalayan nations to formulate and execute a joint strategy to save the Himalayan eco-region before it is too late.