Indian Defence Review

China took other steps to keep relations in good repair, but without backing off from its stance on sovereignty over the South China Sea. China has continued assertive naval patrols in the South China Sea and in the Taiwan Strait and has been sending its solitary aircraft carrier and announcing on March 17, 2017, that it would go ahead with plans to build environmental monitoring stations on six islands and reefs, including the Scarborough Shoal claimed by the Philippines. It has, at the same time, sought to pander to Trump’s interests. Very unusually, a Chinese court approved 45 applications for patents, filed on behalf of Trump by his lawyers on a range of products such as WC covers, hotels and gold courses in mid-March 2017. It also paid almost $1 billion for apartments in a building owned by Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner in New York!

The US too balanced its contact with Beijing and Trump met Japan’s Shinzo Abe in Washington the same day i.e. on February 10, 2017. During the meeting, Trump reaffirmed his country’s security commitments to Japan adding that the United States is behind Japan “100 per cent”. The two leaders also said they would work together to maintain a strong economic relationship even after the US had withdrawn from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations. The same day, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson met Japan’s Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida and pledged to enhance the US-Japan alliance.

Separately, US Defence Secretary General James Mattis, an important member of the Trump administration, in February reaffirmed US commitments to South Korea and Japan. The General said the US would act swiftly to preserve the security of its allies against outside threats, including hostile acts by North Korea and China. General Mattis also clearly reaffirmed US commitment to Article 5 of the US-Japan Security Treaty, which includes the Senkaku islands, and called for an inter-governmental approach with allies to maintain stability in the South China Sea and counter China’s expansion.

Trump has also said he will increase the size of the US ground forces and that of the US Navy to over 350 fighting ships. While this will appreciably increase manufacturing and jobs in the US, it simultaneously implies that the US Navy will over the coming decade enhance its maritime presence including in the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea through which more than $5.3 trillion of dollars of international trade transits. Interesting in this context are Trump’s telephone conversations with leaders of friendly Southeast Asian countries, including Rodrigo Duterte, President of the Philippines, and their agreement to meet in the near future.

China, however, is not about to give up the position it has acquired and it has begun responding on various fronts. China is the largest country in the region in terms of economic strength, military might and land area and since 2013, it has begun trying to alter the status quo in its neighbourhood, viewing the new US Administration’s policies as intended to retard its ambitions. While China’s responses have been measured and deliberate, it has made clear it will not yield sovereignty over the South China Sea. China has built airstrips and more recently missile emplacements on the islands in the South China Sea, moved missiles to Hainan and has, in late February 2017, announced that it is constructing environment monitoring stations on the Scarborough Reef.

Imagery released early in April 2017, shows that China has nearly completed construction of hangars, mobile missile shelters, and radar arrays on the Fiery Cross Reef and has constructed similar structures on the Mischief and Subi Reefs. Interestingly, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang recently said, “China’s facilities, Chinese islands and reefs, are primarily for civilian purposes and, even if there is a certain amount of defence equipment or facilities, it is for maintaining the freedom of navigation.” Chinese Premiers do not usually comment specifically on issues of sovereignty or territory. China has expansive maritime ambitions in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, it plans to build 451 warships and 100 submarines and four aircraft carriers by 2030. It has already acquired a naval base at Djibouti in Eastern Africa, has a ‘logistics supply base’ at Karachi, and is completing a navy base at Gwadar. By 2030, China’s naval power has the potential to overwhelm Japan and countries in the South China Sea, with attendant implications for the Indian Ocean. China today has the capability to deter the US from quickly coming to Taiwan’s assistance.

Beijing also sought to raise psychological pressure with tough talk in Beijing of possibly preparing for war. Liu Guoshun, a member of the National Defence Mobilisation Unit of the Central Military Commission wrote on a PLA website on January 10, 2017, that “The possibility of war increases” as tensions around North Korea and the South China Sea heat up, remarks such as “‘A war within the President’s term’, ‘war breaking out tonight’ are not mere slogans but the reality”. Separately Pang Zhongying, Professor of International Affairs at Beijing’s Renmin University observed, “There is little doubt that a major storm is gathering. Both sides appear to have made few discernible efforts to hide the fact that they expect a rough ride ahead for bilateral ties”.

Similarly, a telecast on the state-owned CCTV on February 13, 2017, showed a PLA Air Force (PLAAF) 38-year old bomber pilot Captain Liu Rui, describing an eight-minute ‘threatening’ encounter with a foreign military jet over the Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea last July. He did not, however, identify the country to which the jet belonged.

Also, in January and reflecting the importance accorded by the PLA Navy to developments in the South China Sea, 1956-born Vice Admiral Shen Jinlong was appointed PLA Navy Commander. More significantly, Vice Admiral Yuan Yubai, a nuclear submariner, was appointed Commander of the PLA’s Southern Theatre Command – becoming the first PLAN officer to head a Theatre Command since they were created early last year. At a time when US President Donald Trump is making belligerent noises, Vice Admiral Yuan Yubai’s appointment as Southern Theatre commander emphasizes China’s resolve to dominate the South China Sea. The PLA’s Southern Theatre’s operational jurisdiction includes the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean. Vice Admiral Yuan Yubai is, incidentally, credited with remarking that, “The South China Sea, as the name indicates, is a sea area that belongs to China. And the sea from the Han dynasty a long time ago where the Chinese people have been working and producing from the sea.”

Li Jinming of the South China Sea Institute at China’s Xiamen University wrote in the Chinese academic journal, ‘Southeast Asian Studies’, “We must make preparations for a long-term fight and take this as a turning point in our South China Sea military strategy.” China has made major investments in staking its claim to three million square kilometres of the South China Sea. These include spending millions of dollars from its $10 billion annual budget for promoting ‘soft power’ by, for example, using the Xinhua billboard in Times Square to broadcast a video 120 times a day for two weeks to defend China’s territorial ambitions on the South China Sea.

Money has similarly been spent on propagating the myth of the 14th century eunuch Admiral Zheng He. China has also fanned nationalistic fervour, blending it with the PLA Navy’s morale and building and deploying military hardware for acquiring and retaining its claims in the South China Sea. The Spratly Islands can now accommodate 72 combat aircraft and about 15 larger planes including bombers, transport and aerial refuelling aircraft thereby considerably extending the operational reach and offensive capability of the PLA Navy and PLA Air Force. China is clearly sending a strong message to its rival claimants that it will stay in the South China Sea and intends to hold on to the vast swaths of disputed territory it presently controls.

While China’s top echelon leadership have avoided belligerent public comments, China has nonetheless indicated a willingness to face up to adverse conditions and announced it will not back off. Affirming China’s resolve, the Chinese military issued a warning to a US Air Force B-1 bomber flying in the East China Sea on March 22, 2017, over an emergency radio frequency. The incident occurred when the American bomber was flying 70 miles South West of the South Korean island of Jeju, which according to American officials is in international airspace.

While China will try and strike a compromise with Trump, China has invested too much to back off from its claims to sovereignty over three million square kilometres of the South China Sea. Beijing additionally views the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean as a maritime continuum. It will, therefore, continue to advance its claims in this maritime region which it sees as integral to its becoming a global power. At most, Beijing may take a strategic pause before restarting activities in the South China Sea.

However, China’s assertion of sovereignty over the South China Sea will not be uncontested. Countries in the region are loathe to accept China’s dominance. But while ASEAN still dithers and Australia is in a dilemma because of its economic dependence on China, countries like Japan, India and Singapore view the South China Sea as a ‘global commons’. They are keen on ensuring the neutrality of the sea lanes of communication and air passages in this region.

More than $191 billion, or 55 per cent, of India’s trade with South East Asia transits through the South China Sea. Japan, particularly after its experience when Beijing stopped the export of vital rare earths to it, is aware of its acute dependence on the neutrality of this maritime space. Japan, India, Singapore, Vietnam and Indonesia should establish a maritime commission to ensure that the South China Sea is free and neutral, preferably with US support.