Indian Defence Review

China’s counterspace program targeted at the U.S.

The Chinese believe that the greatest threat to them comes from the United States. With an eye on this, the Chinese space program believes that to counter the US’ conventional strength and gain a strategic parity, they need to strike at their Achilles heel — that is the over-reliance of Washington on satellites for C4ISR. Beijing plans to exploit the vulnerable space infrastructure of the US in the case of a war. According to a recent RAND report space and counterspace operations would be important elements in any armed confrontation between the United States and China. The transformational warfighting capabilities that U.S. military forces have developed since the end of the Cold War are largely enabled by “satellite support, and space-based ISR and communication connectivity would be especially important in the broad expanses of the Western Pacific theater.”

The PLA’s interest in the use of space for military purposes gained momentum after the 1991 Gulf War, which has been referred to as the “first space war”, and has only increased since. According to some Chinese analysts, “the U.S. military relies upon space for 70‒80 percent of its intelligence and 80 percent of its communication. Some Chinese writings also attribute an almost omnipotent quality to U.S. space-based intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) and conclude that the U.S. receives exquisite intelligence from these platforms.

Chinese thinking on space weaponisation comes from a deep-rooted fear of US conventional strength as well as the desire to uphold its own nuclear deterrent against the US missile defence systems. According to Martin France and Richard Adams, “The PLA’s development of ASAT weapons is primarily not a reaction to US space control initiatives. It is driven instead by very practical considerations of regional security and influence, and the desire to conduct asymmetric warfare against a superior foe if conflict arises.” Martin and Richard believe that Beijing seeks to offset the dominance of US conventional forces by exploiting their dependence on spaceborne information assets. Secondly, China hopes to guarantee the viability of its nuclear deterrent by holding the critical space-segment of American missile defense systems at risk. Lastly, it is important to point out is that the Chinese space program also contributes to the PLA’s anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities by providing critical C4ISR (command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance) support to long-range precision strikes weapons and providing the ability to threaten U.S. space-based assets.

It was the 2013 test that jolted Washington and made her realise that her crucial national security satellites, parked in Geostationary Earth Orbit, are well within the reach of Beijing. As a response, Pentagon announced the launch of a “Space War Centre” to counter threats from China and Russia in space, part of a $5 billion boost in space security spending for the Department of Defense. However, over a year and a half later, precious little has come off the Centre.

The United States, aware of the enormity of the threat needs to do a lot more to ensure that space remains a sanctuary instead of turning into a battleground. China and Russia have been pushing for a debate on the Prevention of Arms Race in the Outer Space (PAROS) treaty that will ensure that states observe a prohibition of space weaponisation so as to eliminate any race arms in the space. Russia and China have also submitted a draft treaty to the UN on preventing the placement of weapons in outer space. It was Washington that withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in 2001 and went on to develop ground and sea-based missile defenses that can well act as ASAT weapons.

In all likelihood, US would not want an arms-control treaty if it means putting a limitation of the US National Missile Defence system (which has de facto ASAT application). Despite the fact China had accepted 100 visits by the inspection organization of the chemical weapons ban, Washington would want an exception and not reciprocate in kind. So far the biggest boulder to an international treaty bringing in more transparency and arms-control is the United States. The United States needs to come out of its “first among equals” mindset in order to have a substantial dialogue on a new space treaty.

Whereas protecting itself from Chinese space weapons is concerned, US has been taking concrete steps in this direction. More wargames will help Pentagon realise the vulnerability gaps that need to be plugged in order to protect space-based assets. The US needs to ensure satellite hardening in order to protect them from nuclear explosions and radiation in the space by adversaries. Counter-jamming and counter-laser dazzling will protect satellites from soft-kill attacks.

In the event of a war, the United States plans to send a swarm of mini-satellites to replace satellites that have been attacked and incapacitated. Washington needs to maintain the quick launch of these satellites to minimise the damage and deny the benefit of attack to the adversary. Maneuvering of satellites will also protect from ASAT attacks and Washington needs to prepare its space assets in this direction. One of the benefits of soft-kill attacks is that it affords deniability. As a space deterrent, US should make sure that its surveillance capabilities will detect any laser or jamming attacks and recognise the attacker. This will deter the attacker to some extent.

Lastly, US needs to prepare itself not only against these “hardware” attack but also “software” attacks. Computer attacks that can hack networks and sabotage critical information will destroy US’ space-based assets and will leave them redundant. As Air Force Gen. John Hyten in an interview said without space, US will be forced to revert to industrial-age warfare much like the World War II, the Vietnam War, the Korean War. It would mean no more precision missiles and smart bombs, which would mean more casualties, more collateral damage. Without space, United States will find herself on the wrong side of history.