Indian Defence Review

All said, the army is on a back step at the moment. Gen Kayani was forced to declare publicly (Dec 22) the army and the ISI are under the government and the constitution. Later, he clarified that he had no intention of a coup. Subsequently, in an offer to truce, Gilani said that the government had no intention of dismissing Kayani and Pasha, and praised Kayani’s professionalism and his support to democracy. But this is not going to end here. There is a new debate prompted by Gen (Rtd) Ziauddin Butt Khwaja who revealed in a talk in October 2011 that Gen Musharraf knew about Osama bin Laden’s presence in Pakistan under army protection all along, and that Gen. Kayani also may have known about it. Prime Minister Gilani has already put the army in the dock on the Osama question and is holding his power dry. Even if Zardari somehow gets indicted in the memo scandal, it will not affect Gilani.

One spoiler who can emerge in this tension-filled scenario is former cricket legend and chairman of the Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI) party Imran Khan. At this time when the people of Pakistan stand frustrated, he is trying to project himself and his party as the saviour. His political rally in Karachi, a difficult place and full of sectarian political conflicts, on December 25, drew a surprising 100,000 strong crowd. He promised a welfare Islamic state in Pakistan. A so-called liberal having married and then divorced, a British woman, Imran Khan espouses anti-Americanism very vocally, calls Zardari the most corrupt person in Pakistan (something most people endorse) and talks about Islamic values. Reports suggest he has quiet links with the army as well as some Islamic radical parties. It is not known how he is viewed in the US, but most in India who followed his cricketing career saw on the sidelines his political inclination which had a tinge of Islamism and a vitriolic position on the Kashmir issue. The concern that is more than his Kashmir position is his reported proclivity to enter into deals with the army, and the Islamists who are also linked with army. Most recent reports suggests that PTI may consider aligning with Pervez Musharraf’s All Pakistan Muslim League.

Kayani goes on record as saying that the Islamic militant organisations are their assets. And there is no sign that the army is anywhere near discarding these terrorist organisations.

The main question in the current situation is how the Pakistani army will deal with the multifarious challenges they face. They are under severe criticism from some sections in Pakistan for bringing relations with the US to this unprecedented low. Concerned and responsible Pakistanis know the value of relations with the USA. It is not only the American development assistance, but that Washington holds the key to multilateral assistance to Pakistan. Yet, American arrogance especially in running intelligence operations within the country and collateral damages (deaths) to civilians in drone attacks has created a divide among the people of Pakistan. The ISI and the Islamists have used this to the hilt to raise anti-Americanism. At a certain level it has been ingrained in people’s minds that India, the US and to some extent Israel are determined to destroy Pakistan.

The Pakistani army has grown on the premise of continuous wars or, at least, continuous conflicts. It has focussed on the Indian border or the eastern border to safeguard its western border with Afghanistan, that is, prevent India’s influence in Afghanistan and ensure Afghanistan remains as the GHQ’s surrogate.

Equations change so quickly in Pakistan that it is difficult to see who will be his friends and who his enemies. Even Imran Khan is not a sure bet. But alliances do form. If Musharraf is arrested on his arrival, situation will take a different turn.

Kayani goes on record as saying that the Islamic militant organisations are their assets. And there is no sign that the army is anywhere near discarding these terrorist organisations. Having created terrorist organisations like the Laskar-e-Toiba (LET) and Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the Haqqani clique and others to destabilise India and Afghanistan, they have now internalised terror in their own country. When Pakistan argues that it is a victim of terror, it is the terror created by them and many of them continue to be nurtured by the army and the ISI. The roots of international terrorism still remain in Pakistan.

American foreign policy is difficult to read and even more difficult to predict. Without trying to decipher these undecipherables, suffice it to say that a rare opportunity has arisen to bring Pakistan under real civilian rule and return the army to the barracks and the borders. The ISI requires total dismantling and brought under civilian control. Then only can there be hope for Pakistan. India has no intention of a misadventure against Pakistan which has no dividends.

As a footnote, the unpredictable. former army chief and President, Parvez Musharraf, who lives in London, is planning to return to Pakistan in the end of January. He would be facing charges in several cases including the assassination of Benazir Bhutto in 2007. He has been declared an absconder in the case. Yet, in the last four years the case has really moved nowhere and Supreme Court Chief Justice Iftikar Ahmed Choudury has shown little urgency in the case.

Equations change so quickly in Pakistan that it is difficult to see who will be his friends and who his enemies. Even Imran Khan is not a sure bet. But alliances do form. If Musharraf is arrested on his arrival, situation will take a different turn. If he is not, another large field of intrigues and alliances would open up. But Musharraf will only return if he is able to make a deal with Gen Kayani and Chief Justice Choudury. At least, there will be a new mess in Pakistan.