India cannot openly interfere in Nepals internal affairs as that would give a handle to anti-Indian elements there to excite domestic opinion against India.
China, with its increased political, economic and military weight, is stepping up its presence in countries around India. It is pursuing its strategic interests in Pakistan, with current activity in the nuclear field, major road and power projects in POK and involvement in Gwadar. In Afghanistan China is investing heavily in the mineral sector and a railway link. It is likely to accept an opening to the Taliban as insurance for the stakes it is developing in Afghanistan within the framework of its strategic relations with Pakistan.
In Nepal it is becoming more assertive in demanding equal treatment with India in terms of our respective treaties with that country. With the Maoists now a powerful political force in Nepal, and given their ideological compulsion to be seen as drawing Nepal closer to China, coupled with their periodic ranting calculated to inflame public opinion against India, the political terrain has become more favourable for China. This can only make Indias task in handling Nepal more difficult. The political and social turmoil in Nepal, with its internal fractures becoming sharper, will continue to cause India serious political headaches.
India cannot be indifferent to developments in Nepal because of its border with Tibet, open border with India, the need to prevent linking between the Indian and Nepalese Maoists, not to mention ISIs mischief making in India through Nepal. At the same time, India cannot openly interfere in Nepals internal affairs as that would give a handle to anti-Indian elements there to excite domestic opinion against India.
Chinas position in Bangladesh is entrenched. Even Sheikh Hasinas friendly government would see it in its interest to maintain close ties with a rising China and the benefits that can bring, including giving India an incentive to woo Bangladesh more. China has earned the gratitude of the Sri Lankan government by supplying it arms that helped in defeating the LTTE. Sri Lanka, along with Myanmar, Bangladesh and Maldives, are targets for Chinas naval ambitions in the Indian Ocean area to protect its vital lines of communication through these waters.
The prospects for a border settlement with China remain distant. China has, on the contrary, increased tensions by making aggressive claims on Arunachal Pradesh.
The so-called “string of pearls” strategy, with commercial goals in view in the short term and military goals in the longer term, includes construction of new port facilities in select countries. To promote these objectives China is bound to step up further its engagement with these countries, especially with increasing material means at its disposal, posing further challenges to Indias interests in its neighbourhood.
India will not be able to shape its immediate environment optimally for its interests in the foreseeable future. Unless Pakistan is ready to end its politics of confrontation with India, that includes the over-assertion of its Islamic identity, the fostering of the jihadi mentality, the nurturing of extremist religious groups involved in terrorism and the political domination of the military in the governance of the country, the SAARC region will remain under stress. An India-Pakistan reconciliation will of course radically change the internal dynamics in South Asia and the quality of the regions engagement with the rest of the world. The role of external powers in the region will also get substantially modified.
Afghanistan presents grave potential problems. If the extremist religious forces ultimately win there, the strategic space for them will expand enormously, with deeply adverse consequences for the region. A triumphant radical Islamic ideology can be destabilising for the religiously composite societies of South Asia. The increasing Talibanisation of Pakistan would be most deleterious for the South Asian environment. Pressure on India would grow.
The prospects for a border settlement with China remain distant. China has, on the contrary, increased tensions by making aggressive claims on Arunachal Pradesh. Indias military infrastructure in the north is being upgraded in the face of mounting Chinese intransigence on the border issue. Chinas hardened posture towards the Dalai Lama and Tibet cannot but retard a resolution of India-China issues. China, meanwhile, continues to build up Pakistan against India. It is quite likely that Chinas pressure on Arunachal Pradesh is intended to deter India from taking advantage of a Pakistan currently in disarray. The tactical alliance between India and China at the Copenhagen climate summit should not obscure the deeper sources of India-China problems.
Chinas hardened posture towards the Dalai Lama and Tibet cannot but retard a resolution of India-China issues. China, meanwhile, continues to build up Pakistan against India.
The political drift in Nepal portends continuing instability there with all its deleterious consequences for the economy. India has to play its role without getting embroiled in domestic controversies to the extent possible, though traditionally anti-Indian forces there would continue to propagate the canard of overbearing Indian interference in Nepals internal affairs. The development of Nepals energy resources can re-shape Nepals economy and its relations with India, but the history of failed attempts to do so in the past suggests caution in expecting a breakthrough.
With the Sheikha Hasina government in power in Bangladesh Indias relations with that country seem set to improve. Bangladesh is showing an unprecedented willingness to deny safe havens to anti-India insurgents and discuss transit issues. The recent visit of the Bangladesh Prime Minister promises to “launch a new phase” in the ties between the two countries. If despite internal resistance from anti-Indian elements and the bureaucracy, India-Bangladesh relations can be steadily transformed, it will considerably improve the political and economic dynamics of the region. Bangladesh can play a positive part in linking the eastern region of South Asia to Myanmar, Thailand and beyond. A solution however has to be found, to the problem of illegal Bangladeshi migration into India.
The commencement of a dialogue between the US and the Myanmar junta validates Indias policy towards that country. If the US has woken up to the danger of leaving China to consolidate its hold over Myanmar, it is all to the good. India needs to implement its assistance projects, especially the multi-modal transport ones, without further delay. We have to contend with Chinas much more purposeful approach in strengthening its strategic presence in our neighbourhood, including using Myanmars ports for increasing its presence in the Indian Ocean area.
Indias very cordial relations with the Maldives need to nurtured, especially in view of the attention it is receiving from China at the highest level. In Sri Lanka, the heady feeling of triumph at eliminating the LTTE needs tempering and a permanent solution that the Tamils can live with should be encouraged with Indias discreet prodding.
Bhutan has been the only real success story in terms of Indias relations with its neighbours. This underscores the point that good relations between India and its neighbours depend not only on wise policies on our side, but, equally, the pursuit of wise policies by our partners, with Pakistan and China and other external interests not allowed to upset the building of positive equations to mutual advantage.
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