Indian Defence Review

Air power has been with us for nearly a century. Within less than a decade of the historic first flight of a ‘heavier than air machine’ at Kitty Hawk in the US on 17 December 1903, the Italians were bombing Turkish forces at Ainzara in Libya. On 01 November 1911, Lt. Giulio Gavotti dropped four bombs each weighing a mere two Kg. on Turkish positions at Ainzara. Subsequent bombing attacks were denounced by the Ottoman Government as contravening the Geneva Convention.1 Air power saw rapid progress through the two World Wars and major advances in technology further accelerated the pace of modernisation of air power in the second half of the last century.

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Air power is defined as ‘the ability of a nation to assert its will through the medium of air.’ This is usually further expanded to include ‘the ability to project military force by or from a platform in the third dimension and includes a nation’s total aviation activity; potential as well as existing, public and private, and civil or commercial and military’.2 This definition clearly remains applicable and highlights the importance of forces in being as also the nation’s potential to continually upgrade its forces to meet emerging challenges. Force structures are invariably constructed on the basis of affordability, access to technology and above all the current and future capability of the likely adversary and not his demonstrated or perceived intent.

Air power “¦ “˜the ability to project military force by or from a platform in the third dimension and includes a nations total aviation activity; potential as well as existing, public and private, and civil or commercial and military.

The likely development of aerospace power in the next two decades would depend on many of the factors cited above. Given the high costs of research its progress is likely to be incremental rather than dramatic. Some of the questions that this essay attempts to answer are: Would it become more effective in sub-conventional warfare? Are there any enduring trends in the way platforms and weapon systems are being developed? What role would the Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) and missiles play in the future? Would the US and its Western allies continue to dominate the air power arena? Is there a possibility of some of the developing countries of the Asian region becoming more self-reliant in this field? What role does the indigenous aviation industry play in these countries?

Recent Trends

The experience of the wars of the 1960s to 1970s raised the importance of air power but it was the 1991 Gulf War that proved beyond doubt its efficacy. Operation Desert Storm saw that the USAF led Allied Air Forces mounted an air campaign against Iraqi targets for six weeks before the ground forces entered the war and successfully defeated the formidable Iraqi ground forces in a matter of days. This not only proved the thesis proposed by Col John Warden of the US that air power must target the ‘centres of gravity’ of the enemy but also that air power could significantly reduce the casualties to one’s ground forces.3 This was a turning point of sorts and those countries that had not paid much attention to modernising their air power assets sat up and took notice.4 The People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF), the Indian Air Force (IAF), (Pakistan Air Force) and many other air forces in the region renewed their efforts to modernise their fleets. Iran, DPRK, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, Saudi Arabia and Israel are some of the other Asian countries that today posses sizeable air power assets.

Future Trends

Offensive Platforms

Although the jet fighter had already crossed the sound barrier on 14 October 1947 (Chuck Yeager flying the Bell X-1)it was a decade before the supersonic aircraft became commonplace. The ever rising costs of the platform resulted in the pure fighter soon doing strike missions and later graduating to multi-role capability. With improvements in the thrust/weight ratios of the turbo-jet, turbo-fan variety of jet engines it became possible to steadily increase their capacity to carry more fuel and armament. Progress in solid state electronics resulted in microminiaturisation of avionics further improving the effectiveness of the modern platform. Increased fuel gave greater range while Inertial Navigation and later, space-based assets like the GPS further enhanced accuracy.

Iran, DPRK, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, Saudi Arabia and Israel are some of the other Asian countries that today posses sizeable air power assets.

Improved performance of air defence radars, early warning and interception put a limit to how low a fighter could fly to avoid radar detection by the enemy and forced the manufacturers to look at ways to reduce the radar signature of the aircraft. The over-two-decade old RMA or Revolution in Military Affairs is generally accepted to include stealth, long range, and precision fire power. By the end of the 1990s the earlier platforms such as the Hawker Hunter, Folland Gnat, Dassault Mystere and Oregon, the MiG -15/17/19’21 and F-4 Phantom F-5 Freedom Fighter, the Mirage F-1, III and V were being gradually phased out. Some of the old types like the MiG-21 variants and Jaguar Deep Penetration Strike Aircraft (DPSA) and indeed the F-4 and F-5, continue to fly with many air forces. The Lockheed Martin F-16 Fighting Falcon designed in the early 1970s and comprehensively modified and upgraded throughout its long years in the service with many air forces is the sole exception to the rule and today remains a front line fighter in the US, Europe and many other countries.

One of the most noteworthy developments in the region was the relatively early introduction of the Su-27/30 class of the air superiority/multi-role fighter in China in 1992,5 followed by India in 1996 and much later in Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia. The end of the Cold War and the economic difficulties faced by Russia as well as the spectacular rise of the Chinese economy were the major triggers to this event. Until its entry, the F-15 and F-16, its Western peers, were available to only American friends and allies in the region such as Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. Having learnt its lessons from the 1991 Gulf War, China had by the early 1990s embarked on a full scale modernisation and indigenisation process. It not only inducted the Su-27 in sizeable numbers but also began to manufacture the J-11, its licensed version, in the country. Newfound access to money and technology also helped it to quickly build two of its own fighters the FC-1 or JF-17 and the J-10 in record time.

The availability of the Russian RD-93 and the Saturn Lyulka AL-31F aeroengines was the key to this achievement.6 Of the 1653 combat capable aircraft with the PLAAF some 936 comprise MiG-21 and J-8 variants that are unlikely to last more than a decade.7 The 80 odd H-6 (Tu-16) medium bombers and air refuelling tankers would also be phased out by 2020 but it must be noted that the fifty year old Tu-95 Bison four-engined bomber/reconnaissance aircraft is still performing its Cold War task of long range surveillance in the Baltic and North Atlantic theatre. The much modified version of the H-6 bomber is thus likely to serve with the PLAAF for many years.

In 2030, the PLAAF and PLAN would likely have some 800+ J-10, another 800 Su-30/J-11Bs, and many JF-17, JH-7, L-15/FTC-2000 advanced trainers and an assortment of XXJ (sometimes called JXX) and other fifth generation stealth fighters.

In India, the IAF had acquired a large variety of new types in the early 1980s which included the Jaguar (1979), MiG-23 (1980), Mirage-2000 (1984), MiG-29(1987) and the MiG-27 (1989). Of these the MiG-29 aircraft are being upgraded but it is unlikely that these fighters will meet India’s needs for the next two decades. What, however, will continue to restrict India’s options is its lacklustre record in building its own defence industry.

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Of the 600 combat capable aircraft of the IAF as many as 293 comprise the old and ageing MiG-21 variants leaving only a mere 48 Su-30MKI, 48 MiG-29 and 36 Mirage-2000,1 clearly highlighting its ‘air defence orientation’.

Pakistan has had to depend on the US and PRC for its defence needs. Despite long term sanctions the PAF has maintained its F-16 fleet and has recently added some 18 new units.

The 98 recently upgraded MiG-27 and the soon to be up-rated 80 Jaguar DPSA aircraft would be on their way out by 2030. Instead the Su-30MKI, Tejas LCA and later the MMRCA, 126 of which are now on order, will form the backbone of the IAF fighter fleet. The emphasis would be on long-range multi-role capability. In 2030, the IAF can hope to possess some 200 Su-30MKI, 100 Tejas LCA, 60 MiG-29 and about 36-40 Mirage-2000 and if all goes as per plan, some 200 MMRCA fighters that are currently on order. The Russian ‘fifth generation fighter’ deal has been signed and 100 PAK-FA Indo-Russian fighters may also form part of the IAF inventory by 2030.2

Pakistan has had to depend on the US and PRC for its defence needs. Despite long term sanctions the PAF has maintained its F-16 fleet and has recently added some 18 new units. The co-production/development agreement with the PRC for the JF-17 has helped it to order some 250 fighters of this type along with a smaller number (36?) of J-10 (FC-20). Later even the Super-10 an advanced version of the J-10 will most likely join the PAF. Pakistan will also gain from its collaboration with the PRC in building its aeronautical industry and in all probability, by 2030 become capable of manufacturing its own fighters. Of the 383 combat capable aircraft on the PAF inventory only the 46 F-16 and 8 JF-17 are of the third generation.3 All its Mirage III/V variants, the Chinese Q-5 and the F-7 PG/MG would be phased out latest by 2020. It would then have some 200 JF-17, 100+ J-10 and possibly 50+ F-16.

Due to its strained relations with the West, Iran has only 25 MiG-29 fighters; all its US origin offensive platforms like the F-14, F-4, and F-5 face spares/support problems and hence their serviceability in the future is in question. Iran is, however, making up this deficiency by developing a variety of short and long range surface-to-surface missiles. The future of its air arm is thus uncertain unless China comes to its help or in a dramatic shift, its relations with the West and Russia improve. It is noteworthy that Russia has so far not delivered the S-300PMU advanced air defence missile system to Iran under a deal signed many years ago.4

Also read: India as a defence manufacturing hub

The Saudi Air Force currently possesses about 100 Panavia Tornado, 69 Boeing F-15S and 89 MD F-15C/D fighters and a whole host of other air assets including the BAe Hawk trainers and other aircraft of US and European origin. It has recently signed a deal to buy 72+ Eurofighter Typhoon fourth generation fighters. In the future too the Saudis would depend on Western sources for its needs.5

The high cost and restricted availability of the F-22 Raptor and the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) F-35 make it difficult for these to enter the region by 2030 except possibly with a few of the US allies such as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore.

Japan, South Korea and Singapore are also planning to replace their ageing F-4 and F-5 aircraft possibly with the US Boeing F-15 SE. Due to its poor proliferation record North Korea, however, has little option but to live with a nearly obsolete air force unless China, its only friend, comes to its help.

Forecast International has said that in the five years ending 2013, the major players in this field, Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Eurofighter, and Sukhoi will maintain their lead and produce about 40-50 aircraft per year but Chengdu Aircraft of China will also produce 45-50 fighters every year.6 This trend is likely to continue for the next two decades with the Chinese fighters becoming more and more sophisticated and reliable with a sizeable export market. There are reports of Egypt’s interest in locally manufacturing the Sino-Pak jointly produced JF-17.

The high cost and restricted availability of the F-22 Raptor and the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) F-35 make it difficult for these to enter the region by 2030 except possibly with a few of the US allies such as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore. But in the mean time, “under its Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) programme, Boeing has unveiled its design concepts for a sixth-generation fighter to replace the US navy’s F/A-18E/F Super Hornet after 2025 and to succeed the US Air Force’s F-22 Raptor two or three years later. These are said to be stealthy, tailless, supercruise-capable and would include optionally manned cockpits.”

One of the defining characteristics of the programme is likely to be its affordability.7 In sum the prohibitively high costs of the modern fighter platforms will compel the countries of the region to look for other options including refurbishing the old types and Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicle (UCAV). Continuing advances in microminiaturisation and space based assets are likely to enhance the capabilities of the UCAV in the coming decades and relatively lower costs would make them more attractive the air forces of the region.

Airborne Weapon Systems

The quest for accurate delivery of bombs and munitions gained added urgency in the Vietnam War and the Laser Guided Bomb (LGB) soon became the most sought after weapon. The LGB can, however, go awry due to smoke, clouds and other atmospheric obscurities. The LGB’s popularity was the simplicity with which a dumb bomb was converted into a ‘smart’ weapon by adding a kit that included the laser seeker and fins to guide the bomb to the target illuminated by the laser designator carried either by the fighter bomber in ‘autonomous’ mode or by a ‘buddy’ fighter, or sometimes by a Forward Air Controller (FAC) on ground.

India is also reportedly testing its first air-to-air missile the Astra.

In Operation Desert Storm (1990-91), only 229 US aircraft were capable of delivering laser-guided munitions. By 1996 the expanded installation of Low-Altitude Navigation and Targeting Infrared by Night (LANTIRN) pods on F-15Es and block 40 F-16s had increased this capability within the Air Force to approximately 500 platforms. These weapons known as Precision Guided Munitions (PGM) became increasingly popular as they promised reduced collateral damage. It is noteworthy that the IAF used its MiG-27 and Mirage-2000 fighters in ‘buddy’ mode to target camouflaged enemy positions with LGBs in the high mountainous terrain during the 1999 Kargil operations.

In the West the limitations of the LGB resulted in the development of Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAM) and later the Joint Standoff Weapon (JSOW) family of weapons that relied on the INS/GPS for guidance and made it possible to deliver these even in bad weather so long as correct geographical position of the target was available. Although countries other than the US have also produced these weapons they remain expensive and are not easily available to developing countries of the region. It is likely that these regional players will try their utmost to locally produce these and other efficient advanced PGMs. A new family of the Sensor Fused Weapons capable of firing small bomblets at specific targets such as the hot engine of tanks and vehicles, are also being used but their efficacy in operations other than conventional wars is questionable since these ‘smart’ weapons cannot differentiate between the engine exhaust heat of an armoured vehicle from that of a school bus.8

A family of anti-tank weapons such as the Milan, TOW, Eryx, FGN-148 Javelin, and AGM-114R Hellfire are once again in demand and are increasingly being used in irregular warfare both from ground and airborne platforms. “Raytheon has delivered more than 30,000 Javelins and about 3,300 have been fired in combat. Production is running at between 1300 and 2000 per year.9

The air-to-air missile has also seen major improvements with the All-Aspect-Missile (AAM) and Beyond Visual Range (BVR) Missile entering service with most air forces of the region. India is also reportedly testing its first air-to-air missile the Astra. It is said to be a BVR with a range of 44 km that may be increased to 80 km in the future. This is another area where self reliance will become even more important for cost and access considerations. These missiles will become even more effective with the introduction of AWACS to the region.

Air Defence

The region has seen the induction of more sophisticated surface-to-air missiles (SAM) in the recent past with China receiving a large number of Russian S-300 PMU family with ranges exceeding 150-200 km. These are also effective against enemy missiles. India too has obtained these missiles while continuing to develop its own Akash SAM system.

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With the gradually increasing reach of modern fighters such as the F-16, Mirage-2000, Su-27/30 and even the MiG-29K and the induction of the air-to-air-refuelling tankers and AWACS in China and India and also some other countries, the air defence envelope has expanded with the fighter/interceptor set to engage the enemy at far off ranges. This trend is likely to continue. Ranges may further increase with new BVR missiles entering service with some of these air arms. Operations with these force multipliers are however very complicated with the tanker and the AWACS platforms themselves needing protection.

Support Platforms

Fixed wing transport aircraft and helicopters have proved their usefulness in peace and war with them seeing regular employment in strategic mobility, troop lift, disaster relief, evacuation of own citizens from troubled areas, providing support to civilian authority in Counter Insurgency Operations (COIN) and, in the case of India, daily air-maintaining troops and civilians in the high altitude frontier areas. In the absence of adequate infrastructure in the mountains these aircraft of the IAF have proved to be the life line of the inhabitants of these remote regions of the country. The IAF has been using the Il-76 and An-32 as the main platforms for over two decades. The Hercules C-130J a ‘Special Forces’ version of the US cargo plane is soon slated to enter service with the IAF and would likely continue until at least 2030.

Helicopters have proved their versatility both in war and peace and hence are likely to remain in great demand for the foreseeable future.

The PLAAF has also used its fleet of 30+ Il-76 and large numbers of An-24 for some time with the Y-8 a locally produced copy of the An-12. China and India are both trying to produce their own tactical transport aircraft and by the end of the next decade some of these may well enter service with the PLAAF, PAF and IAF.

Pakistan has ordered six SAAB Erieye AEW&C aircraft from Sweden, the first of which rolled out on 26 mar 2008.1 These countries may add to their existing assets of tankers and AWACS. China has already inducted its locally developed AWACS, the KJ-2000. This aircraft led the fly past at the 60th Anniversary Parade in 2009.

Helicopters have proved their versatility both in war and peace and hence are likely to remain in great demand for the foreseeable future. India’s Advanced Light Helicopter (ALH) ‘Dhruv’ is already flying with its army, navy and the air force and is also on the export market. China has produced the Z-8 support and Z-9 attack helicopter and both these are also likely to be exported in the future. India has placed an order for 197 Light Observation Helicopter (LOH) for its army and the same are likely to enter service by 2014. The Indian Navy has also placed orders for some refurbished Sea Kings and with Tata signing a JV with Eurocopter the Indian helicopter market is likely boom. Given the mountainous nature of India’s Northern borders, the helicopter would continue to remain important in all its roles; armed/attack, scout/reconnaissance, support, tactical troop lift, medical casualty evacuation, combat search & rescue even if its effectiveness in the attack/combat role is restricted at heights above 10,000 feet AMSL.

Other Asian powers would continue to operate a variety of helicopters of Western and Russian origin but it is not clear if any of them will start their own production programmes since their needs are not large.

UAV/UCAV

The idea of using unmanned aerial vehicles has been around for a very long time but its fruition is of more recent origin. These were effective in battlefield surveillance role and gave valuable additional information to the ground forces without having to depend on dedicated reconnaissance aircraft. The wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon (2006) and the conflict in Georgia (2008) all saw extensive use of the UAV.

The success of the US in October 2001 Afghanistan Air War in the early and effective targeting of the Taliban and Al Qaeda fighters with the Predator MQ-1 launching Hellfire anti-tank missiles made this modified UAV a legend.

The UCAV as also High/Medium Altitude Long Endurance (HALE, MALE) UAV are now fast becoming more popular with all armed forces. The success of the US in October 2001 Afghanistan Air War in the early and effective targeting of the Taliban and Al Qaeda fighters with the Predator MQ-1 launching Hellfire anti-tank missiles made this modified UAV a legend. This kindled renewed interest in the UAV with many countries developing their own. Small UAV that can be launched by an infantryman are also becoming more and more commonplace. A variety of UAV, UCAV and Man-portable and Micro UAV will see resurgence in the near future because of their low cost, relative ease of import and local manufacture. Presently the market is expanding but fully autonomous types are not being fielded for reasons of safety to other users of airspace and the need to first confirm that the target is indeed hostile before its engagement.

Some low cost UCAV designed to home on to radiations of a radar set and destroy the radar by diving into it are already in use in the region. According to the Aviation Week & Space Technology (AWST) the US remains the dominant producer and operator of the UAV and from a mere 1000 flight hours in 1987 the figure had gone up to 600,000 in 2008.2  Northrop Grumman the manufacturer of the famed Global Hawk HALE UAV, has recently offered for trials a UCAV, the X-45, that will display stealth characteristics, and carry PGMs such as the JDAM and the small diameter bomb. The X-47B technology demonstrator capable of carrier operations is currently undergoing trials. What with the rapidly increasing costs of manned fighters there is a strong possibility of the UAV/UCAV combination becoming more popular with the armed forces of the region.

This is one instrument of modern air power that will probably become the most sought after weapon system by all the countries of the region and its intelligent and early adoption would result in considerable cost savings. Being of a relatively short range and limited armament, access to these vehicles and associated technologies may also become easier.

Missiles

The ‘aircraft versus missile’ was a long enduring debate during the 1960s and 70s with the central focus on the delivery of nuclear weapons. Here we shall only consider the conventional missile in all its forms. For some years now, China has been producing conventionally armed surface-to-surface missiles of the M-9, M-11 variety. India has recently unveiled its solid fuel version of the Prithvi with a conventional warhead. In the recent past, short range missiles and rockets have caused two major conflagrations in West Asia, first the 2006 Lebanon War and later the August 2008 Gaza conflict.

The Brahmos supersonic missile jointly developed by India and Russia is another example of effectively long range engagement of the enemy with relative safety.

A variety of ship and air launched missiles for use against ships and ground targets already fill the inventories of many countries with the PRC laying considerable stress on this ‘easy-to-produce’ simple weapon system. Both Iran and Pakistan are also busy producing different types of missiles including the cruise missile. The reason for such interest is perhaps their relatively low cost and ease of manufacture, high accuracy and their usefulness in the initial stages of a conventional war when air superiority is not yet attained.

A recent report says that, “in 1970 there were only two countries developing cruise missiles with ranges of more than 150 km, but by 2009 this figure had increased to 17. Cruise missiles cost between 10 per cent and 25 per cent of the price of a ballistic missile; they use general aircraft technologies and they tend to be more accurate.”3 It is quite possible that the next two decades will see more and more of these missiles in the region. As seen during the 1995-96 Taiwan Straits Crisis, the missile may also become the weapon of choice in signalling the intentions of a country.

Selectively targeting the enemy’s military assets such as fuel dumps, ammunition storage depots, forward airfields, army/air force HQs and communication nodes can prove a very safe, cost effective and decisive option in the opening days of the war with low risk of attrition to own aircraft and to enemy civilians. This may thus become the preferred tool for the developing countries of the region. The American Stinger man-portable SAM or MANPAD has over time acquired a high reputation for accuracy and lethality. The IAF lost a helicopter and a fighter aircraft and sustained damage to one of its medium reconnaissance bomber due to Stingers during the 1999 Kargil Conflict. It must, therefore, be remembered that a low cost MANPAD SAM can be a major deterrent to offensive air operations and a force multiplier for the defender.

Also read: Future trends in aviation

The Brahmos supersonic missile jointly developed by India and Russia is another example of effectively long range engagement of the enemy with relative safety. The next two decades may see a proliferation of missiles of all types as manned fighters/bombers become costlier and out-of-reach of developing countries. The aircraft and helicopter lose their overall effectiveness due to reduced lift and engine thrust at high altitudes. The ballistics of the shell and bomb also become more unpredictable at higher altitudes.

Interdiction of enemy supply lines is, therefore, preferable to attacks on targets in close proximity of own troops. Future air operations in the mountains would have to allow for these limitations of the aircraft and helicopters. Man-portable anti-tank (MANPAT) and anti-aircraft missiles and Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) may be more effective in the mountains. In fact, the intelligent use of the UCAV-missile combination might prove a winning future strategy and enhance their attractiveness in the future.

Training

Both flying and technical training is perhaps the most important if unglamorous activity of any air force and may also see some major changes. In the UK basic training has already been outsourced to private companies. The IAF is looking to replace its basic trainer the HPT-32 and Kiran AJT-16; the latter with an indigenously produced IJT Sitara which is now reported to be powered by a Russian engine. The HPT replacement is yet to be chosen. China has produced two jet trainers. The JL-8 or K-8 Karakoram was co-produced with Pakistan’s Aeronautical Industry but only 12 of them are flying in the PAF.

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China unveiled its L-15 third generation advanced supersonic trainer at the Nov 2008 Zhuhai Air Show. Developed by the Hongdu Aviation Industry Group (HAIC) with inputs from Russia’s Yakolev bureau’, the PLAAF is likely to induct these in large numbers. China has another trainer, the Guizhou JL-9 or FTC-2000, produced by Guizhou Aircraft Industry Corporation (GAIC) for the PLAAF. China may export these in the future to friendly developing countries. Basic and advanced jet trainers will continue to be in demand and this is one area where developing countries of the region can make their mark by intelligently entering into joint ventures with the aerospace majors of the West.

Developed by the Hongdu Aviation Industry Group (HAIC) with inputs from Russias Yakolev bureau, the PLAAF is likely to induct L-15 in large numbers.

“The Italian Alenia Aermacchi M-346 is a case in point with the company looking for sales of a light attack version of the lead-in fighter trainer (LIFT). The company sees an international market for at least 2000 M-346 class aircraft over the next 20-25 years.”1

Gazing at the Future

Of late, there have been many other developments in the field of aerospace power and related technologies in the Western world. Past experience shows that sooner or later these new technologies find their way in the developing world. It would thus be axiomatic that the region would see many unexpected developments. Some of the more important of these are listed below.

Solar and Renewable Energy Platforms

Much work is under way to develop solar and hydrogen cell powered aeroplanes and UAVs. Initially, difficulties in obtaining/generating more usable power and hence limitations of all-up weight might restrict these technologies to UAVs and light reconnaissance platforms but the potential is as yet not fully realised. e. g. The solar powered Zephyr flew for 82 hours in a test flight in 2008.2

End of Fossil Fuel

Availability and desirability of using fossil fuel for aviation may soon become a hotly debated issue if fears of climate change attain greater salience. The military aircraft would be most vulnerable. According to one estimate the US Air Force uses 2.5 billion gallons (approx 10 billion litres) of fuel each year. In 2008 it cost the US government nearly US$ 7 billion, slightly more than half the total fuel bill of the entire US government, to fuel its air force. It is also said that aircraft release about 600 million tons of CO2 each year but have a greater impact than other sources of combustion products because the aircraft directly delivers it into the atmosphere.

Use of airships and tethered balloons or “˜aerostats at high altitudes on the fringes of the earths atmosphere for reconnaissance, surveillance and ELINT gathering has been considered for some time.

Thus even though aviation accounts for just 8 per cent of the total use of refined oil, and only 3 per cent of greenhouse emissions, the overall climate effect is about 13 per cent. It is thus evident that soon military aviation would have to search for alternative sources and types of fuel.3 Many alternative fuels and even solar energy are being considered but which of these, if any, would suit the requirements of aviation is difficult to say at this time. In the near future fuel may thus become a major constraint to military aviation and may even adversely affect the production of some of the fighters and other platforms.

Use of Near Space

Officially designated to extend from 75,000 feet to 62 miles near space has been attracting the attention of aerospace research scientists for a variety of reasons. Use of airships and tethered balloons or ‘aerostats’ at high altitudes on the fringes of the earth’s atmosphere for reconnaissance, surveillance and ELINT gathering has been considered for some time. Absence of severe weather, strong winds, and above all, the low cost of manufacture and operation of these air ships/balloons are the main points in favour of such an idea. The major advantage is that such platforms could remain on station for weeks if not months and would be much cheaper than satellites and provide a continuous picture of activities in the areas of the ‘foot print’ of the platform. These may prove very useful in the future.4

Hypersonic and Scramjets

On 26 May, 2010 the Boeing Phantom Works and engine manufacturer Pratt& Whitney made X-51A WaveRider used a rocket booster and an air breathing scramjet (supersonic ram jet) engine to reach speeds of Mach 5 and created a record for the longest flight using such an engine. Hypersonic research has been with us for many years. The USAF SR-71 black Bird strategic reconnaissance aircraft could reach speeds of M 3 plus and remained in service for nearly three decades. The current programme’s fore runner was the X-43A that also used the scramjet and achieved speeds of Mach 9.6 in November 2004.

It is claimed that the WaveRider rides its own shock wave and has the potential for true hypersonic flight. The scramjet carries liquid hydrogen but scoops oxygen from the air as it travels at high speed. The engine has few or no moving parts with the compression of the oxygen being accomplished simply by passing through the engine. This frees the vehicle from the need to carry liquid oxygen which effectively reduces the pay load and hence makes it an attractive idea, e.g. the Space Shuttle needs 143,000 gallons of liquid oxygen that weighs a staggering 616,432 kg. Without this liquid oxygen the shuttle weighs a mere 74,842 kg.

Also read: Navies in the Indian Ocean

The scramjet cannot work at low speeds so it is accelerated to about Mach 4 by a Pegasus booster rocket. This combination is taken to 20-40, 000 feet by a specially designed B-52. Once the booster rocket reaches the high speeds it falls off, the scramjet engine is lit and it then travels on its own before a splash in the ocean. The longest flight referred to earlier lasted only 200 second, giving a clear estimate of the problems ahead. By 2030, this research is likely to present more options for high speed commercial and military flight.5

Micro and Hand Launched UAVs

Much work has already been done in this novel field. American and NATO soldiers are already using hand launched small UAVs to get a picture of what lies ‘on the other side of the hill’. Micro UAVs of the size of small birds capable of quietly sitting on a window sill have been developed to eavesdrop on the conversations inside the room.

The ability to pack ever bigger data in extremely small devices (the 8-10 GB pen memory for instance) and the possibility to make micro trans-receivers would certainly transform the way militaries communicate and transfer useful data. Micro UAVs would play a major role in the near future.6

Enduring Problems

Target Identification. Despite major advances in air launched weapons and attendant target designation and aiming/homing systems the problem of target identification continues to be a severe constraint on strike missions especially in sub-conventional warfare when the risk of collateral damage is high. Fighter aircraft and attack helicopters face such situations on almost daily basis when operating against terrorists, guerrillas and insurgents. Non-state actors have often used innocent civilians as human shields while launching attacks on government forces. Not a day goes by without some report of a civilian target being mistakenly destroyed in Afghanistan and elsewhere. Air operations in urban areas are even more difficult even though some very accurate attacks were indeed launched on targets in Baghdad during the Second Gulf War.

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In today’s world of 24-hour TV news channels and the increasing role of NGOs keeping an eagle eye on all government operations, nation states find it increasingly difficult to explain and justify these mistakes. A recent such attack in North Afghanistan on an oil tanker that was thought to be surrounded by Taliban fighters but which actually turned out to be civilians collecting fuel resulted in the tragic death of some 90 innocents.1 Afghan marriage parties where participants often fire weapons in celebration have been mistakenly targeted bringing opprobrium on air power operators. The arms manufacturers would have to work to improve the present target identification methods if indiscriminate use of fire power is to be avoided.

Developing own military aviation industry is, therefore, inescapable if dependence on foreign suppliers is to be avoided. It is likely that the next two decades will see efforts in reducing the types and vendors of the aircraft and equipment used by the air forces in the Asian region.

Air Superiority. “With it anything is possible; without it everything is at risk,” said Major General (Retd) Charles Link of the USAF.2 It is a truism that no major armour activity can be undertaken without air superiority. One of the most important tenets of air power employment, the concept of air superiority has often been mistakenly associated with air forces fighting their ‘own battles’ against enemy air forces and failing to come to the support of own ground forces when most needed. Nothing could be farther from the truth. No air force can mount air operations before it first effectively neutralises or at the very least reduces the ability of the opposing air force to interfere with own operations. There are many ways to achieve this basic objective; offensive counter air, airfield strike and deep interdiction including strikes on enemy’s leadership are some of them. Admittedly, air superiority is not automatically achieved but has to be hard fought and sometimes may take time.

The US and its allies have not fought a single war since Vietnam without first neutralising enemy air. SEAD or Suppression of Enemy Air Defence operations are, therefore, vital and have to be undertaken at the very initial stage of a conflict. The ground forces often overlook this fact and bitterly complain that the air force does not provide them ‘Close or Offensive Air Support’ (CAS/OAS) to first soften up the enemy before they can launch an offensive. Col. John Warden who formulated the air strategy for the 1991 Gulf War and many others are of the view that ‘something has already gone drastically wrong, if the army demands immediate air support meaning thereby that joint planning should already have taken into account the needs of the surface forces. Problems of target identification, friendly fire incidents and collateral damage will in all likelihood continue to plague the modern air forces for the foreseeable future.

Missiles. As seen above, many Asian countries are rapidly building their capacity to indigenously produce short-range ballistic, anti-ship, cruise and other missiles apparently to make up for deficiencies in manned combat aircraft. The PRC has over the last two decades built up a stock of some 1500 SRBMs and a whole host of cruise and other missiles and has also exported them to Iran, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Syria giving these countries to deter some extent, future threats. Given the changing nature of warfare in which sub-conventional and irregular conflicts appear to predominate, building of indigenous military/defence capabilities naturally becomes inescapable.

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The rapidly rising prices and increasing difficulties in accessing state-of-the-art technologies together place serious strains on a country’s economy. This perhaps makes the relatively cheaper and easy-to-produce missile a weapon of choice. It must be noted that missile technology has rapidly proliferated with some 40 countries pursuing some missile programmes of their own.3 As these technologies become more diffuse and widespread with increasingly affordable missiles with high accuracy and bigger conventional warheads, it is possible that these will play a bigger role in both deterrence and Warfighting.

Conclusion

The foregoing has shown that technology has continuously shaped and sharpened the effectiveness of air power as a decisive element in conventional warfare. Air power has also been successful as a deterrent to conventional wars. It has, however, not been as effective against insurgents, terrorists, guerrillas and those indulging in ethnic cleansing activities. Other limitations such as very high unit costs of aircraft and weapons and the inability to produce these locally place developing countries in a difficult situation when planning their force structure upgrades. Developing own military aviation industry is, therefore, inescapable if dependence on foreign suppliers is to be avoided. It is likely that the next two decades will see efforts in reducing the types and vendors of the aircraft and equipment used by the air forces in the Asian region.

China, and with its help Pakistan, may become more independent in this field. Both the PLAAF and PAF are likely to consolidate their inventories greatly relying on indigenously manufactured products. India’s GDP has been growing at a steady 6-7 per cent for some time and if this pace is maintained, adequate funding would be available for the IAF to also become a truly balanced and capable air arm despite its current problems of dwindling assets. Its leadership would have to focus on fewer types such as the Su-30, Mirage-2000, MiG-29 and the Tejas while simultaneously developing its capabilities to upgrade them as the need arises. India cannot, however, be counted among modern developed nations if it does not soon build a robust aviation industry. Modern air power undoubtedly will play a decisive role in national security but it cannot be viewed as a panacea for all problems. Its effectiveness would continue to depend on the freedom it gets from the political and military leadership of the country.