Indian Defence Review

In the early hours of Wednesday, 05 April 2017, North Korea fired a ballistic missile into the Sea of Japan, in the latest provocation that has sparked ire from the global community. The test, however, comes at a crucial hour—just a day before the first face-to-face meeting between United States President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart, President Xi Jinping at the Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida. While North Korea was already set to be one of the major flashpoints during the Trump-Xi summit, the latest ballistic missile test is only going to intensify the discussions and make it harder to find common ground.

The United States’ approach has been made apparent by President Trump in the lead up to the meeting. First, he believes that China is not doing enough to use its economic leverage to force North Korea to stop building its nuclear and missile arsenal.Trump also went on to say that he would leverage trade as an incentive to force China’s hand. Second, he announced that the United States would be willing to take actions unilaterally if China does not act. While it is unclear if he meant sanctions or military involvement, the message is clear—the United States will no longer sit idly and watch North Korea continue its development of missiles that have the capability to strike US bases in Japan and Guam.

Trump’s comments show a clear lack of understanding of China’s position on the issue. While he makes a couple of strong statements about his intentions, China and Xi Jinping are unlikely to get too flustered or bothered. It is hard to imagine any solution to the North Korea situation that does not involve China. Ultimately, China is North Korea’s closest ally and as such, at least understanding the Middle Kindom’s view on the situationwill be a win-win to all parties involved.

At the core, China and the United States both have the same goal regarding North Korea

Denuclearization. While a nuclear North Korea neednot be a direct threat to China like it is to South Korea, Japan, and the United States, it poses an indirect threat. As long as North Korea continues on its path to become a nuclear state, the United States will continue to enhance its strategic military positioning in the region.China considers the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-ballistic missile defense system, which the United States has begun deploying in South Korea, as a major threat to its military security in the region, and has declared it as a destabilizing factor in the Korean Peninsula. In fact, China has not hesitated to show its displeasure, and has used its diplomatic muscle to render economic impacts. The closure of over two dozen Lotte group stores in mainland China as a response to the Lotte group’s land swap deal in Seoulallowing the installation of THAAD system, is a recent example.

Besides, China realizes that it no longer has the same level of influence over North Korea—especially with the unpredictable and temperamental Kim Jong-Un at its helm. However, it is important to note that relatively speaking, China still has the most influence in comparison with other countries over its rogue neighbor. To this extent, China has indeed used its resources to slow down North Korea’s nuclearization. A day after the Pukguksong-2 test on 12 February 2017, China rejected a shipment of around 16,295 tons of coal from North Korea, estimated to value around US $1million. Beijing appears to be losing its patience, which is demonstrated by the move to pull the plug onNorth Korea’s biggest financial lifeline: its coal exports to China.

China wants dialogues, while the United States wants a regime change

The strategy that the United States employs against North Korea is to close all exists in order to choke the regime into submission. Alternatively, China realizes that a regime change and overhaul will cause massive uncertainty, leading to an influx of millions of potential refugees to the mainland. This is one of China’s biggest concerns, and as such, will continue to push for nuclear talks and dialogues to pacify the current situation. The problem, however, is that it is almost impossible to get the United States and North Korea to the same negotiating table. Both countries have preconditions, and the preconditions are the very reason why the talks will not happen. The United States requires North Korea to suspend its nuclear program for the possibility of any dialogue and settlements of sanctions. In sharp contrast, North Korea requires the suspension of UN sanctions and the end of joint US-South Korea military drills. These are mutually exclusive, and a meeting point cannot be reached as long as either side holds on to the same position. China, strongly believes that North Korea is fundamentally insecure and the insecurity is what leads to nuclear acquisition. China’s ideal situation is open talks and dialogues with every party involved, and China is more than happy to facilitate it.

North Korea will not launch a nuclear attack unless as a last resort deterrent

Finally, China strongly believes that North Korea will not go through with a nuclear attack unless as a last resort deterrent.To China, it is clear thatany unprovoked attack that North Korea carries out will mark the end of the regime. Not only is nuclear acquisition the country’s only remaining bargaining chip, but it is the onlytactic to ensure the regime’s survival. Therefore, the military drills, THAAD system deployment, sanctions, and other scare tactics employed by the United States and its allies will only fuel North Korea to step up the pace of its nuclear and ballistic missile development.

Trump and Xi Jinping have an enormous opportunity to make a significant move towards cooperation over North Korea during the Mar-a-Lago meeting slated to happen on Thursday, 05 April 2017. From the aforementioned points, it is clear that China is going to ask the United States to suspend its preconditions and engage in a dialogue with North Korea. However, if his comments are anything to go by, Trump is going to pressure China to take more economic and military measures to force North Korea to suspend its nuclear program. The best outcome will be for both leaders to meet in the middle, with the United States entertaining the possibility of dialogue with North Korea with China moderating, and China taking further measures to slow down North Korea’s progress and force the country to come to the negotiating table. In conclusion, how the two leaders handle the North Korea issue will send a clear signal about the future of the “great-power relations” in the Trump-Xi era, and pave the way for further cooperation, or alternatively, mistrust in the years ahead.