The ISI has has worked with the Taliban to attack Indians and Indian interests. The recent bombings in Kabul are part of a coordinated campaign of attacks to drive the Indians out.
There are some 50 million Pashtuns living in the region, the largest ethnic group in the world without a state of their own. The Durand Line had in effect divided the Pashtuns.
Today, Pakistan claims to be launching operations against the Taliban in their tribal areas, while NATO is waging a war in Afghanistan against the Pashtun Taliban.
The mission of NATO is unclear to many. Afghanistan has for thousands of years been ruled by tribal warlords, whose loyalties and customs are paramount and transcend national laws. The writ of President Hamid Karzai’s government runs a little beyond Kabul. There is rampant corruption, lack of infrastructure and extreme poverty. The drug trade is the mainstay of the economy.
NATO will not be able to unify the country. when NATO forces leave, as leave they will have to one day, the country will in all probability be taken over by the various warlords once again.
Pakistan views Afghanistan to be part of its sphere of influence.
Their covert support of the Taliban is a continuation of their Great Game. they are gradually and slowly pushing their control of territory further across the Durand Line into Afghanistan, while at the same time trying to neutralize the growing Indian influence in Afghanistan .
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India wants to counter Pakistani influence by a series of developmental measures. India’s support of the Karzai regime is resented by Pakistan, which is taking measures to counter the Indian influence. The Pakistanis and their ISI mentors have used the Taliban as tools to further their influence and interests in southern Afghanistan. They are in touch with the Mujahideen leadership to overthrow the pro-Indian Karzai government and to drive out all Indian influence from Afghanistan. The ISI has has worked with the Taliban to attack Indians and Indian interests. The recent bombings in Kabul are part of a coordinated campaign of attacks to drive the Indians out .
Pakistan wants to create an environment for a pro-Pakistan Pashtun Taliban controlled southern Afghanistan.
Pakistan knows that NATO is largely dependent on the logistic supply routes to Afghanistan that pass through its territories, and that as such NATO and its American leadership can do little to pressurize them. Pakistan wants to create an environment for a pro-Pakistan Pashtun Taliban controlled southern Afghanistan.
Iran too wants to wield influence not only in Shia Hazara but also in other adjacent areas in western Afghanistan.
The overall situation in Afghanistan remains in a state of flux, despite the troop surge and the increased military efforts of the American led NATO forces. It is going to be a long long haul for NATO. Some NATO countries are less than enthusiastic about the continuance of protracted operations.
Very little light can be seen at the end of the tunnel. The Dutch are pulling out of Afghanistan, and some other NATO nations may follow suit.
Pakistan aims to be in the driver’s seat in Pashtun south Afghanistan once NATO pulls out.
Sir Henry Mortimer Durand’s line, imposed on a reluctant people, has little relevance or validity in today’s geopolitical environment. It is an anachronism of history, out of place and out of date.
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