Cell Phones and TV
In Afghanistan, over 12 million cell phones connect people. Prior to 2001, Afghanistan had only Radio Voice of Sharia. Today, there are more than 30 private TV channels and numerous radio channels.
To counter insurgency, foot soldiers are required in large numbers. Afghanistan has been fighting war for more than three decades.
Education
Each year, over 4 million boys and girls go to schools. Prior to 2001, not even a million went to schools. Even within the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF), literacy is being promoted.
Commercial Sector
An increasingly vibrant private sector has taken roots. International development and military presence have stimulated the sector. More and more production and service sector enterprises—small, medium and large—are emerging. Wealth is being created. People are taking risks, investing and creating jobs.
Constraining Factor
Effective relief, reconstruction and development work can help convince people to support the government against insurgency. Knowing this, insurgents have been targeting such works, threatening both those who perform it and those who benefit from the same. This highlights the fact that the people of Afghanistan are important and their well-being and security require to be focused on and given top priority in order to gain their trust and support.
Security Challenges
To meet the security challenges, both external and internal, the development of ANSF, consisting of the Afghan National Army (ANA) and the Afghan National Police (ANP), is important. It has been estimated that for meeting internal security threat, the strength of ANA should be 240,000 and that of the ANP 160,000, pegging the combined strength of security forces at 400,000 by the year 2014. ANA has already been expanded to more than 100,000. ANA units are being increasingly employed to fight the militants with the international force in support. Eventually, it is hoped that ANA would be capable of operating on its own, allowing the international force to pull out.
Due to financial constraints, lack of technological base and lack of proper education, ANA is not being given such support capabilities.
To counter insurgency, foot soldiers are required in large numbers. Afghanistan has been fighting war for more than three decades. The society is war-weary. Large-scale desertions are prevalent in ANA. Due to a lack of adequate educational facilities in the country, educational qualification of recruits at intake is low. Training facilities are also inadequate. These inadequacies act as constraints against the speedy development of a professional army.
For meeting external threats, modern military weapons and equipment such as artillery guns, missiles, armed helicopters, drones and air support are required. Due to financial constraints, lack of technological base and lack of proper education, ANA is not being given such support capabilities. This is bound to be a major constraint in employing ANA to fight external military threat in the event of hostilities.
Reconciliation Efforts
There was much talk of good and bad Taliban. The United States tried to strike a deal with the good Taliban before quitting Afghanistan. Pakistan’s role was crucial in this. Several rounds of talks were held, with no result. Even President Karzai and facilitators, like Saudi Arabia, tried to broker talks, with little tangible progress. The question is, why will the Taliban come for talks when it smells victory and is not under any pressure?
Regional Cooperation
There has been no serious effort to get the regional powers together to cooperate and solve the Afghanistan issue. Due to competing interests of regional powers, the task is difficult. A West-oriented group in Afghanistan may not be acceptable to Russia in view of its known opposition to NATO’s eastward expansion. While Russia has agreed to provide transit facilities for NATO supplies to Afghanistan, it would not accept any decrease in its influence over former USSR’s strategic space. Iran has on-going standoff with the United States and the West over its nuclear programme. It would not be prudent to expect much cooperation from it. Pakistan continues to play a double game. China has its own views about central Asia and Afghanistan. Under the circumstances, it may not be possible to expect any spectacular results.
For the first time, India and Afghanistan have moved out of the realm of “soft power” and entered hard power space of mutual security. India is to train Afghan security forces in counterterrorism, which has expanded into conventional operations as well.
A small beginning can perhaps be made by encouraging regional trade through Afghanistan. In the past, Afghanistan has acted as a bridge between Europe and central and south Asia. The United States ought to take lead in shaping a common vision to unify central and southern Asia with a stable Afghanistan as its fulcrum. Infrastructure can be created to connect central Asia through Afghanistan to the Indian Subcontinent and beyond, to Southeast Asia. Resuscitating old trade links amongst these regions has the potential of bringing prosperity to the countries along the way and also act as a good financial inducement for Pakistan to join greater regional cooperation for constructive purposes. The United States, Russia, China and India should take the lead and try and reach for more substantial regional cooperation.
Strategic Partnership Treaties
Afghanistan has a strategic partnership treaty with the United States. On 4 October 2011, Afghanistan also signed a strategic partnership treaty with India in New Delhi. NATO might disapprove of it. There is violent opposition from Pakistan as well. The United States must have directly or indirectly facilitated it, without which this would not have been feasible.
For the first time, India and Afghanistan have moved out of the realm of “soft power” and entered hard power space of mutual security. India is to train Afghan security forces in counterterrorism, which has expanded into conventional operations as well. This area was earlier given to NATO.
NATO troops have always been reluctant warriors in Afghanistan, operating under individual national approvals regarding location and choice of mission. Spain succumbed to pressure and pulled out its forces. The UK has decided that it has done its bit and that it is advisable to terminate its fruitless involvement in a frustrating war, with no tangible benefits and only casualties. As the final dates of the drawdown in 2014 get closer, NATO appears anxious to leave with as few casualties as possible. The Taliban is scenting victory and is quite content to bide time.
The Taliban believes that the tide is in its favour. It seems to be preparing for what might happen after U.S. troop withdrawal and how to dominate the entire country at that stage.
Analysis of Evolving Scenarios in Afghanistan
According to the plan, as U.S. and other foreign forces are reduced, Afghan security forces are to be inducted to replace them. For effective training of newly recruited Afghan security forces, it is essential that there be mutual understanding and sympathy between the trainers from abroad and freshly inducted forces. The incidents being witnessed tend to erode the sense of shared purpose. The goal is becoming that much harder to attain.
Quiet attempts to talk to Taliban belonging to some of the more amenable opponents of the Karzai government have been going on. The initiative was taken by President Karzai. There were one or two false starts and imposters got exposed. However, talks have since broken down, with a Taliban announcement that they are breaking contact. The Taliban believes that the tide is in its favour. It seems to be preparing for what might happen after U.S. troop withdrawal and how to dominate the entire country at that stage.
Indian Perspective
India must clearly understand all aspects and dimensions of the situation it seeks to enter into. The aim must be to deny Pakistan the strategic space of an Afghanistan controlled by a power structure hostile to India. There are too many unknowns in Afghanistan, including the long-term prospects of the Karzai government itself. India should undertake an exercise as to how much of its presence and influence in Afghanistan would be sustainable in the event of a weakening U.S. position and how to sustain it. We should not extend and expand our direct and open presence and influence beyond realistic limits. A greater injection of realism into our Afghan policy is called for.
The situation in Kabul is posing increasing concerns. The steady weakening of the security situation a few months before the U.S. presidential elections is reminiscent of the 1974 weakening of the security situation in Saigon, the South Vietnamese capital, which led to Saigon’s capture by the Vietcong and the hasty withdrawal of U.S. forces in 1975. Let us hope history does not repeat itself in Kabul. The situation is quite bleak.
India should carefully strategize its engagement with Afghanistan. Deliberate decisions are called for.
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