Indian Defence Review

It was late Saudi King Abdullah who envisioned the strategy of ousting Bashar –Al –Assad a Shia ruler in Sunni majority Syria five years back in consonance with Turkey and other friendly countries. The game was to arm and strengthen the rebels in Syria for this job. This policy was vigorously continued after the demise of King Abdullah by the new defense minister of Saudi Arabia Mohammad Bin Salman Al Saud.

Now five years have gone past. Assad is still ruling Syria. However this policy of Saudi Arabia has badly backfired. It has given rise to intense sectarian conflict in West Asia in particular and world in general.

In addition it has given birth to most radical Sunni terror organization by the name ISIS under Abu-Al –Baghdadi which after capturing large tracts of Syria and Iraq has formed a Caliphate that is attracting Muslim youth from all over the world. ISIS has now become a major threat to even their mentors in the Sunni world. If Saudi Arabia still does not wake up even now then it is heading for major trouble.

Early this year West Asia’s two most powerful nations Shia Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia have broken their relations. The catalyst was the hanging of a very popular Shia cleric in Saudi Arabia by Saud’s. It needs to be understood that in Muslim World Sunni-Shia divide runs very deep and is seemingly irreconcilable. At the heart of this Sunni -Shia divide is Theological disagreement.

Under Shah, Iran had good relations with Israel. However after the 1979 Ayatollah Khomeini engineered revolution where Iran vowed to finish off Israel and liberate Palestine, they have been at each other’s throats with US siding Israel. However in last 36 years the global scenario has changed in a big way. The key changers have been the demise of USSR, 9/11 attack on America, The US war on terror, invasion of Iraq, Arab Spring uprising of 2011 and advent of Sunni jihadi organizations Al Qaeda and ISIS .

After decades of arm twisting , even a threat of war and imposing of all kinds of sanctions on Iran, thereby making Iran a pariah who could not even sell its oil in the free world as also US freezing Iran’s 200 billion dollars reserve, suddenly Iran and America have made up. Iran has agreed to the US imposed nuclear deal and US has lifted all sanctions on Iran. This along with the slowdown in the world economy, the Saudi Oil which was selling at 110 dollars per barrel in June 2014 is now selling for just 50 dollars a barrel.

In the recent oil producing countries conference where they wanted to cap the oil production to stabilize the oil prices in the world, Saudi Arabia refused. The reason for this negative approach being Saud’s fear that Iran which has the second largest oil reserves after Saudi Arabia and now free to sell its oil in the world market, US imposed sanctions having been lifted, will capture Saudi Arabia’s market share if it caps production.

Similarly US Shale oil which was giving tough competition to Saudi oil production is now in doll drums because of the oil prices fall. Saudis want things to continue this way. Saudi Arabia are also saying that it will fill free its economy in next four years from oil dependency, a tall order indeed, so it does not want other oil dependent economies of Russia and Britain to improve by capping production.

However Saudi Arabia’s economy is also taking a big hit. Recent IMF report has predicted that if Saudi Arabia does not cut its exorbitant expenses then it will go bankrupt in next five years. Currently 29.5 % youth are unemployed in Saudi Arabia. Members of the spring revolution of 2011, which Saudi Arabia could ward off by pumping in 70 billion dollars, now this type of money may not be available with Saudi Arabia. In addition relations with US of Saudi Arabia are souring.

Recently in an interview American president Obama had said that Saudis are free riders. Also currently American Senators are debating a bill which if passed will enable the 3000 American citizens who died in Al Qaeda’s attack in 9/11 their family members can claim compensation from Saudi Arabia for it funding of Al Qaeda. This has brought jitters to Saud’s and they have threatened to take out from America their 78 billion dollars’ worth of assets before America freezes it. All in all Saudi Arabia is staring at Bure Din While Iran’s Acche Din have started.

Yemen is another mess in which Saudi Arabia has involved itself. About a year back Iran backed Shia Houthi rebels have taken over the power in Yemen. Since then Saudi Arabia along with its friendly countries have been pounding the Houthis from Air but these air attacks have proven disastrous due to indiscriminate bombings where even school children have been killed while the Houthi rebels continue to rule the roost in Sana the capital of Yemen.

The biggest sectarian conflict for increase of influence between Saudi Arabia and Iran is taking place in West Asia with their epicenter being Iraq and Syria. The Sunni terror organization and now a caliphate ISIS had captured almost 40% area of Iraq and more than half of Syria initially. At that time it appeared that there is no stoppage to their expansion. However after stepping in of Iranian Imperial Guard, Iran backed Shia militia and Kurdish Peshmerga fighters the ISIS is on the back foot. Today they control only 14% of Iraqi area and in Syria also they have lost in a big way specially after stepping in of Russia.

Currently America along with Saudi Arabia and large number of other countries are carrying out air strikes against this ISIS. Saudi Arabia along with turkey are still keen to oust the Assad regime but are not making any big headway.

Even Pakistan is caught up in this ongoing sectarian conflict in West Asia. Earlier Saudi Arabia had requested Pakistan for providing ground troops to assist it in its fight against Syria and to a certain extent ISIS. Pakistan however refused saying that their parliament is against providing the troops for operating outside of Pakistan. Recent back to back visit of Pakistani Prime ministers Nawaz Sharif to Saudi Arabia and Iran is case in point. Pakistan cannot afford to annoy Saudi Arabia since that is where the money comes from. It is also afraid of angering Iran lest Iran creates problems for Pakistan in Afghanistan as also within Pakistan.

All said and done today Saudi Arabia is losing its clout in the Muslim world due to oil prices hitting record low. At the same time sanctions against Iran being lifted it will gradually get more powerful. It is now imperative on Saudi Arabia to stop this funding of sectarian conflicts because oil prices are not going to go up in a hurry.

As for India, it is necessary to have good relations with both camps but a bit more soft on Iran because in any conflict with Pakistan – Saudi Arabia is not going to be on our side. However on Iran we can still bank on. Also we should not forget that India has the largest population of Shia Muslim sect after Iran. If Iran is with us then a large section of Indian Muslim population of India can be weaned away from their leaning towards jihadi lure or ISIS. Also Iran can be of great help to us in our efforts to build an alternative route to Afghanistan and oil rich central Asian countries by passing Pakistan via Iranian port of Chabhar. Iran can also play an important role with us to counter the Pakistani sponsored terror activities in Afghanistan.

These sectarian conflicts in west Asia may be bad for the Muslim world but it definitely opens number of options for us which India must exploit.