Indian Defence Review

Approaching to Land – Viraat ready to receive one of its birds back

FLEET MODERNISATION

Availability of Funds. The Navy is a capital intensive Service and it takes a long time to design, develop and build ships.  The larger the ship, the longer is the time taken to design and build it. Taking a typical destroyer/frigate (The work horses of any Navy) it takes around 10 to twelve years from Government approval to commissioning, if the ship is to be designed and built in India.Assured funding over three plan periods (i.e. 15 years) is absolutely essential for any plannedmodernisation. Historically, the fate of Navies has been linked to the fate of their country’s economy. Fortunately for us the Indian economy is doing very well and modernisation of the Navy (and indeed of the Armed Forces) can be easily funded over the next three plan periods in particular, and for the future in general. This statement is supported by published/stated figures for the Indian economy and the assumptions at sub-paras (d) and (e) below:-

The GDP in 2004-05 was around Rs 2658750 Crores.

• The GDP has been growing at an average rate of 6.35% and very recently the PM announced that this year it will grow at 7% (for the first time the GDP growth in the first half of the fiscal year has been over 8%) and there is every possibility that it could touch 10% in the future.
• The percentage of GDP allocated for Defence during the latter 1980s varied from 3.08 to 4.24%. Since then this has gradually dropped, and from 1991 to 2005 the percentage has varied from 2.77 to 2.24. This was quite inadequate to fund the modernisation of the armed forces.
• We have been able to afford 3 to 4% of GDP for defence in the past  and we can easily do so in the future. It must become stated Government policy that we will spend 3% to 4% of GDP for defence. Besides making adequate money available for defence, it will also enable planned modernisation which has not really been possible in the past as, more often than not, the Budget has driven the “Plan” rather than the Plan driving the Budget. Assuming a modest 6.35% growth rate, the expected GDP at five yearly intervals is likely to be

10-10                Rs   36,17,137 Crores

15-15                Rs   49,20,989 Crores

20-20                Rs   66,94,835 Crores

25-25                Rs   91,08,091 Crores

30-30                Rs 123,91,243 Crores

Share of the Defence Cake.  How much each Service should get from the allocations for Defence has always been somewhat contentious. The Navy being the smallest of the three Services, has always received the least. As early as in 1988,General Sundarji had stated that by 2000 the Navy should get 20% of the Defence budget. He realized the value of a Navy in World affairs. Regrettably, this has not happened and it was only in 2002-03 that the Navy crossed the 15% mark and received the highest ever allocation of 17.6% in 2003-04. Since then it has hovered around the 17% mark and this should gradually be increased to 20% as India will certainly need a powerful Blue Water Navy as it takes up greater responsibility in world affairs. The peace process currently underway will ultimately give us a Peace Dividend that will allow us to reduce troops on the border.(Sub-continental Armies are perhaps the only ones that are amassed on the borders. The rest of the world takes boundaries for granted and respects them) For planning purposes, however, let us assume an allocation of 17%.

Even with this, the expected allocations to the Navy as shown below (assuming only 3% of GDP is allocated for Defence) would be adequate to fund the projects/modernization being recommended :-

Aircraft Carriers. For many years now the Indian Navy has been stating that it needs a minimum of three aircraft carriers to fulfill its missions. One is required to be operational on each coast and the third will normally be under maintenance. After much delay (it took over 15 years!), the Government finally approved the construction of the Air Defence Ship to replace the INS Vikrant, which was phased out in 1997. It took 8 years to get government approval to induct the Ex-Gorshkov (now christened Vikramaditya), which will replace Viraat in 2008/09. It is time now to place the order for the third carrier, which should really be a repeat of the ADS. Batch building of ships and standardization greatly reduce the life cycle costs of a ship. Moreover, for the third carrier we will not have to invest in a separate carrier Air wing, as the intention and requirement is to have only two carriers operational at any one time. If approved now, we will have three carriers in the 2020s.

Strategic Forces. Now that India is a declared Nuclear Weapon state with a No First Use Policy it is absolutely essential that we put our second strike capability in Nuclear Submarines as soon as possible. There are many advantages in doing so and the actions of existing NW States are good indicators of the direction in which we should go. The Government should approve, start and fund such a programme at the earliest, as it is vital for the security of the country. The ultimate aim should be to have at least four such submarines so that at least one, if not two, are on patrol at all times.

Destroyers and Frigates. These ships are really the workhorses of the Navy, both in peace and war. Today, we have 11 destroyers and 11 frigates, which are far too few. In fact, after the 1962 war a study had recommended that the Navy should have 28 such warships – a target that the Navy has never been able to achieve. Forty years down the line much has changed and the responsibility of the Navy has increased manifold. In the next 20 years this figure must go upto at least 20 of each type. Five Leander Class frigates are already well past their prime and need immediate replacement.
(One was earlier decommissioned without a replacement)  Three project 17 Frigates under construction will replace the first three Leanders. The three Godavri class frigates will need to be replaced between 2010 and 2015 by which time they will be between 25 to 30 yrs old. Thus there is an immediate need to place orders for at least six more P17 frigates, just to maintain the current force levels of Frigates. Additional orders will need to be placed on MDL and GRSE to take the frigate numbers to twenty by 2025.

As far as destroyers are concerned, the first of the Kashin class destroyers will be 25 years old this year and the youngest (Ranvijai) will be 17 years. They will all need to be replaced between 2010 and 2020. Three Project 15A destroyers are already on order and it would be cost effective to increase this order to five so that they replace the five Kashins.

It will thus be seen that Mazagon Docks, the shipyard building both the P17 Frigates and the P 15A Destroyers, must deliver 9 x P 17 frigates and 5 x P15A destroyers between now and 2020 i.e. almost one ship a year – assuming that orders are placed well in time and no delays are introduced. Going by their past performance they will not be able to meet this target and so the only option to maintain present force levels will be to exercise the import option and a repeat order for the Talwar class destroyers recently imported from Russia is a very attractive option. A minimum of four should be immediately ordered to maintain force levels.  Additional orders for the Talwar class and/or the Delhi Class must be placed a little later to take the destroyer fleet upto 20 by 2025.

Submarines. Submarines are a vital part of the Naval Fleet and ideal for dissuasion and sea denial operations, particularly against a vastly superior Navy. Their operational value in the Indian Ocean is much greater than in the other oceans as the hydrological conditions in our waters afford the submarine many advantages. Some years ago the Navy had 18 operational submarines. With the phasing out of the Foxtrot class, it now has 10 Kilo class and four German 209 class submarines. The first two 209s are now 20 years old and will need to be replaced around 2015, and the remaining two a few years later. During the same period the first eight Kilo class submarines will also be nearing the end of their operational lives and will need to be replaced. Realising this the Navy had got approval for a 30 year submarine building plan. This was a landmark decision because, perhaps for the first time, the government committed itself to such a long term Naval project. Regrettably, this plan is already six years behind schedule and it was recently announced that the deal to build six Scorpene submarines at Mazagon Docks, with transfer of technology, has been concluded with the French. The first one is to be delivered in seven years time, with one submarine every year thereafter. Thus deliveries will reportedly begin in 2012 and end in 2017 – if production proceeds according to plan. The first four are meant to replace the Foxtrots (though a bit late) and the last two will replace the oldest of the 209s. That still leaves two 209s and eight Kilo class that will need replacement between 2015 and 2025. A second submarine line needs to be started earliest as MDL cannot deliver submarines at the rate the Navy needs them. With the government having opened the doors of defence production to private industry, it would be best if a suitable private sector company were given this responsibility. If we delay any longer, the Navy will again have to exercise the import option, which is what it wanted to avoid with the 30 year submarine building plan.

Amphibious Forces. We have a modest amphibious capability to look after any amphibious assault requirements in our immediate neighbourhood. We urgently need a blue water, oceanic amphibious capability to look after our regional responsibilities. This cannot be met with our current LSTs. The older LST (M)s will be phased out in the next decade and these should be replaced by much larger LPDs. Since we do not have experience in operating these or building them it would be cost effective to import two used LPDs in the first instance. The reported offer of such platforms by the US Navy should be made use of while our designers and shipyards ready themselves for building the follow-on ones. LPDs will enable standoff assaults using ACVs and helicopters. Such ships are also great assets in disaster relief operations, which the Navy is frequently called upon to undertake. Ultimately we must have the capability to carry a brigade group in LPDs and ships taken up from trade.

It is not cost effective to utilize expensive high value ships like destroyers for this and hence OPVs are required in larger numbers.

Support Ships.  Starting of as a “Brown Water” Navy, our Navy is today is a “Regional Blue Water” Navy. We must work towards becoming a “Oceanic Blue Water” Navy is capable of operating anywhere in the Indian Ocean for extended periods, without shore support. To enable this we need many more fleet tankers. Of the three the Navy has, one is overdue for replacement. Assuming that the Navy will ultimately have two carrier task forces, four tankers will be required to support each so we need to have eight fleet tankers by 2020. To build these in India, orders for them should be placed with the civilian shipyards as well. The number and types of support ships required will increase when we transform to a “Trans-Oceanic Blue Water Navy”.