India has been a victim of self-inflicted wounds caused by ignoring lessons from the history right from 1947 onwards. With no share in the emerging power matrix, Indians have no choice but to see the destruction of Afghanistan and their assets from the side-lines, while Pakistan calls the shots. This scenario directly threatens India’s political, security, and economic interests in Afghanistan and Central Asia. It is about time that India reorient its policies in Afghanistan, particularly its relationship with the Taliban in the wake of the U.S. forces’ withdrawal if the country wants to safeguard its interests. India has long supported the government in Kabul while distancing itself from the Taliban.
In December 2020, Afghanistan expressed “deepest regret” over some Taliban leaders being seen visiting training camps in Pakistan. In an official statement they said, “The overt presence and activities of Afghan insurgent elements and their leaders in Pakistani territory clearly violate Afghanistan’s national sovereignty and continue to cause crisis and instability in the region, posing a serious challenge to achieving sustainable peace in Afghanistan”.
Coming on the heels of Afghan concern over the presence of Taliban leadership came this statement by Taliban’s deputy leader Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar. He said that “..all decisions about the peace process are being finalized in consultation with the Taliban’s leadership and the cleric council in Pakistan. He further added that “Here, though, everything has passed us by, but we are compelled to come because there are not a few people here, our entire leadership is present here in this place (Pakistan)”. Baradargave these statements to Western journalist while visiting the injured members of the Taliban in Karachi.”When we conduct partial or general negotiations there (Doha), we share the whole process with the leaders and the Ulema council here. We receive back their guidance and act upon it,” he added.
Reacting to the statements made by Baradar, TOLO news Haji Din Mohammad, the deputy head of the High Council of National Reconciliation, as saying, “They (Taliban) were already there (Pakistan), but now they have confessed it. For this reason the role of Pakistan has been critical in the process”.
Centrality of Pakistan to all the aspects related to Afghanistan has always prevailed. It gets manifested again as US and NATO Allies intend to leave Afghanistan now by mid-July well ahead of Biden’s deadline of September 11th. Uncertainty prevails all across the region except Pakistan and their proxies, the Taliban. They are the winning side.
The Taliban has recently warned the US not to establish new bases in the region after American forces withdraw from Afghanistan in the next few months. The demand shows how confident the Taliban has become since the US has decided to pull out unconditionally. Afghan government forces are struggling to repel hundreds of daily Taliban attacks, and the spectre of a return to all out civil war now looms over the country. Through the village Heads the Taliban are getting the soldiers on isolated Posts to surrender and after taking in the haul of weapons and equipment the soldiers are allowed to go. This may be of great concern to countries like India and Iran or the CAR but not Pakistan.
Rise of Taliban will give rise to religious fundamentalism in Pakistan and Thereek-e-Taliban (TTP) and Islamic State Khorrasan province could pose a serious challenge to Pakistani security apparatus.
American military officials have discussed keeping troops in neighbouring countries to maintain a reaction force to go after terrorist threats that might arise in Afghanistan from groups such as Al Qaeda or the Islamic State.
But reaching agreements, especially with some of the former Soviet republics bordering Afghanistan’s north, remains unlikely given the proximity of those countries to Russia and the Kremlin’s influence, according to US officials.
Pakistan might be a possibility, but given the country’s longstanding support to the Taliban and often tense relationship with the United States, there is little hope in Washington that US forces could be stationed there.
According to the Long War Journal (a project of the US-based Foundation for the Defence of Democracies), of Afghanistan’s 325 districts, the Taliban are in control of 76 or 19%, and government forces 127 or 32%. The remaining are contested. According to the Council of Foreign Relations, the Taliban are stronger now than at any point since 2001, when US forces invaded Afghanistan.
After the full withdrawal of Western troops, Taliban are likely to see the war, which they believe they have already won, to its successful culmination. The recently published US Threat Assessment Report, an annual US intelligence briefing, said prospects for a peace deal are dim, the Taliban are confident of victory in the battlefield, and the Afghan government will struggle to hold them at bay.
The fear of potential aggravation of the political situation and worsening of security in Afghanistan, as well as the expansion of instability, is a matter of great regional concern. The power struggle between interest groups and political factions inside the Afghan government, as well the Taliban’s growing power, has the definite potential to change the US secured power equilibrium in Afghanistan. This, in turn, may give momentum to external players seeking to fill the vacuum in pursuit of their own geopolitical or geoeconomic interests.
While Pakistan may see itself in an advantageous situation as it may appear, but it is not without a dilemma. The big apprehension is of the peace process itself. Will it stay on course post withdrawal or not? Any analysis will indicate that it is highly unlikely for it to be on track. Pakistan is playing cautiously and is appearing to be alongside the world community, pressurising the Taliban and mustering them to the talking table. This may not remain so when gloves are off and Taliban races ahead for Kabul, post the US withdrawal, kicking aside the understanding through peace talks achieved thus far.
Taliban had once said that, Americans may have the watch but we have the time. This is in fact coming true.
There appear to be three scenarios likely to emerge post US withdrawal. One, a complete victory for Taliban and return of the emirate. Two, a stalemate between the Taliban and Afghan forces, leading to a government of reconciliation. A government of the Afghans and by the Afghans. Three, a complete melt down of Afghan forces on ethnic lines followed by a civil war like the one seen once Soviets left and Najibullah rendered helpless by defection of General Dostum.
Ideally speaking it will be the scenario two, that will be in the larger interest of the region and leading Afghanistan towards peace and prosperity. However the chance of a scenario with Taliban prevailing is the most likely.
In any case it may not be all hunky dory for Pakistan in either of these scenarios. There exist huge fault lines which may surface once Taliban is in power or Afghanistan slides into a civil war. Given the Pakistan’s internal political and economic situation in dire straits, this could further add to its challenges as the situation pans out in Afghanistan in days ahead.
There is going to be a huge refugee crisis bringing along the uncontrolled drug menace and opening up new avenues for terrorism. Durand line has been the sticking point between the Taliban of pre 2001 and will continue to be there with Taliban 2021. Rise of Taliban will give rise to religious fundamentalism in Pakistan and Thereek-e-Taliban (TTP) and Islamic State Khorrasan province could pose a serious challenge to Pakistani security apparatus.
On the other side India would be a looser again as history repeats itself after twenty years. It happened in similar fashion in 1991 after the fall of Kabul and hanging of Najibullah. India had invested billions in infrastructure and humanitarian causes in Afghanistan. All effort went down the drain leaving Indian diplomatic and political gains
to a naught.
India has been a thorn in the flesh of Pakistan which has always been sceptical of Indian presence in Afghanistan. They have levied charges of supporting terrorist organisations unamicable to Pakistani interests in the region. They for one will never allow any Indian footprint in Taliban’s Afghanistan.
India has been a victim of self-inflicted wounds caused by ignoring lessons from the history right from 1947 onwards. With no share in the emerging power matrix, Indians have no choice but to see the destruction of Afghanistan and their assets from the side-lines, while Pakistan calls the shots.
This scenario directly threatens India’s political, security, and economic interests in Afghanistan and Central Asia. It is about time that India reorient its policies in Afghanistan, particularly its relationship with the Taliban in the wake of the US forces’ withdrawal if the country wants to safeguard its interests. India has long supported the government in Kabul while distancing itself from the Taliban.
However, USA’s decision comes after an administration review of US options in Afghanistan, where US-midwifed peace talks have failed to advance as hoped and the Taliban remains a potent force despite two decades of effort by the United States to defeat the militants and establish stable, democratic governance. The war has cost trillions of dollars in addition to the lives of more than 2,000 US service members. At least 100,000 Afghan civilians have been injured or killed.
Taliban had once said that, Americans may have the watch but we have the time. This is in fact coming true.
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Afghanistan: Reminds that India is the victim of its own ignorance of History, Geography, Science, Economics, Statistics, Accountancy, Ethics, Governance and much else: But India is not alone. The Us is a good companion: For example: Top US General “warns” of something Islam has known for a thousand years, India for nearly as long, Spain for five centuries and France, and Britain for more than a Century. For example: Top US General “warns” of something Islam has known for a thousand years, India for nearly as long, Spain for five centuries and France, and Britain for more than a Century.
This is OLD news. Islam has flourished across North Africa since Mahomet, a thousand years ago.. The British gave the Mahdi and the Ottomans the quietus. But failed to see them as head of the Islamic Hydra. France has been doing battle with Islam on the Sahel since a century.The US resurrected them with their Oil pact with the Arabs and by creating Al Qaeda for Pakistan to train Taliban (Practitioners of the Quran) in petro dollar funded Mosques and Madrassas around the World to throw the Soviet Union out of Afghanistan. Now, the Caliphate (a loose Axis across State Actors from Turkey to Malaysia via Pakistan and innumerable non state actors. Islam IS the “State”) are no carrying out the commands of Mahaomet and its Companions contained in Quran and Hadith to establish Islam on the rubble of all civilization. The US is now “woke” with its love for jargon and confusing (fooling) itself with needless analysis. As Erdogan says, “Islam is Islam. There is no such thing as moderate Islam or Extreme Islam”. The problem is that the navel gazing US transfers its own values and udnerstanding on the rest of the World without understanding where others come from. As regards Islam, a thorough reading of Quran, Hadith and Shira is recommended for US AND Indian Brass hats, Bureaucrats and Politicians who choose to pronounce upon Islam.
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2021/jun/20/top-us-ge
Afghanistan: Reminds that India is the victim of its own ignorance of History, Geography, Science, Economics, Statistics, Accountancy, Ethics, Governance and much else: But India is not alone. The US is a good companion.