Indian Defence Review

Economic Tibet. China’s aim is to have an economic Tibet. Urbanisation, infrastructure building, extension of rail, roads and airports, converting grasslands to farmland will continue

Demographic Changes. Demographic Changes continue by way of settlement of Hans in Tibet. Like in the case of Inner Mongolia or Xingjian, the local become minorities.

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The Status and Role of the Dalai Lama. By having government’s role in incarnation, the selection of the future Dalai Lama is with the state (like done in case of Panchen Lama). No one born out side China can lay claim for reincarnation. This makes the government in theory more powerful than the spiritual leadership in exile.

Ecology and Climate Change. Due to global warming brought about by anthropogenic reasons, “the glaciers in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and the Tianshan Mountains would retreat at an accelerated rate, and some smaller glaciers would disappear”.1 “In particular, accelerated melting of glaciers in western China due to climate warming will further reduce the area of glaciers and glacier ice reserves, thus having significant impacts on rivers and run-offs with sources in glacier melt water. Future climate change will further increase the vulnerability of ecological systems, diminish the geographical distribution areas of main tree species for afforestation and rare tree species, enlarge the outbreak scope of forest diseases and insect, and increase the frequency of forest fires and burnt-over areas, shrink inland lakes and cause the decrease and functional degradation of wetland resources, speed up the reduction of the area of glaciers and permafrost, and significantly alter the spatial distribution pattern of permanent permafrost of highland ecological system on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and damage bio-diversity.

Climate warming would possibly reinforce the drought trend in northern China, and intensify water scarcity and imbalance between water supply and demand.”2 Environmental degradation due to climate change is also considered a threat by the Environment and Development Desk of Department of Information and International Relations, Central Tibetan Administration(CTA), Dharamshala. This driver is common is both PRC and CTA. Both admit that there is an onset of an ecological crisis in Tibetan plateau and adjoining areas due to climate change.

Attitudes of the Tibetan People. Tibetans in exile may continue with their ideas of greater autonomy. Inside Tibet things are still opaque. However taking queue from spontaneous demonstration in March 2008 across TAR and also other provinces of China having Tibetan in majority or in sizeable numbers this driver is important.

Scenario 1: Hanised and Degraded Tibet

With Hanisation and Demographic Changes. Tibetan Buddhism is likely to be at cross road. The Chinese would have their own 15th Dalai Lama by then. While the CAT has not expressed openly many options may happen. Scenarios could be end of the Dalai Lama process with a democratic system, or a parallel Dalai Lama in exile. Due to internationalization of Tibetan Buddhism and culture, the humanitarian and cultural responsibility to preserve Buddhist culture will not only be shared by India but also the international community.

Division Between Traditions of Tibetan Buddhism. It is possible that attempts of 14th Dalai Lama to unify traditions would have borne fruit. Although the division of Panchan Lama of Gelugpa tradition is well known (one selected by China and one selected by Dalai Lama who is missing in China) the exiled government under its Prime Minister may be the temporal head. For spiritual head, Tibetans will be spilt and under a great transitional struggle. If they follow old traditions then they will be split between spiritual heads of their traditions, who may well now be in PRC. The present 14th Dalai Lama due to his charismatic personality is unlikely to be replaced with a similar lama. The 17th Karmapa who in his teen fled to India in 2000 would have come of age, but it is doubtful if he will be able to command spiritual and religious power as the 14th Dalai Lama. The fallout of the struggle is hazy and complex.

Ecology

Environmental degradation of Tibet will continue. By the time the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol begins in 2013, business as usual emission worldwide would have added to the existing stocks of excess green house gases in the atmosphere. The trees, soil and oceans will not be able to sequester them. Scientists are worried that a warming Tibetan plateau will change the dynamics of the Asian monsoons.3 Glaciers that feed rivers like Yellow, Yangtze, Mekong, Salween, Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra which are shrinking by an average rate of 7% annually will impact on water, food, energy and biodiversity security.4 About 60 to 190 billion tons of carbon locked up in permafrost may begin to release accelerating global warming.5 Extreme weather events then will be a norm.

Pastures. The Russian Tibetonist Roerich has mentioned that deprive Tibet of its cattle breeding region and the country would starve.6 Nomads positive relationship with ecology will end. Animal products like skins, meat, milk and butter rather than being produced though nomad may be factory produced. Use of pack animals such as yaks, dzos (cross breeds), goats and sheep for trade will declines. Health of glaciers, grasslands and the nomadic life are very delicately balanced with the ecology.7

In Sino-Tibetan relations, the different perspectives on the economic path of PRC and CTA is unlikely to get resolved as Hanisation, urbanization, infrastructure building, extension of railway network and roads will increase.

Scenario 2: Responsible China

A clear vision of China’s own identity and what type of society it wants emerges.8 Unlike the expectations of realists, China promotes a peaceful international society based on its domestic foundation. China’s peaceful rise of the last 30 years is carried forward even more peacefully in harmony. Compelled to be an important world power, China carries out reforms to cater for autonomy of Tibet. It encourages greater religious freedom and some democratic freedom in China.

In Tibet it controls Hanisation and agrees to change a capitalistic mode of growth and development by taking the people’s traditional preferences. Tibetan is made the official language with priority over Mandarin to help the people. With open policies it permits return of Tibetan in exile and allows the Dalai Lama to be a spiritual leader. It accommodates the Tibetan Government in Exile in its political structure. In some way it follows the Hong Kong model for Tibet. This results in manifold increase in international tourism with care of ecology. These policies also permit China to have the worlds’ leadership role in Buddhism. It improves foreign relations with Buddhist countries of East and South East.

In ecological matters traditional practices of nomads are revived to sustain healthy grasslands. Ecological concerns top the policies as by 2030 adverse impact of climate change would be peaking. A realisation would have dawned on public and political leadership that solution lies in cooperation with neighbours and respecting traditional ecological knowledge.

Wild Card Scenario

Internal forces make China implode. With capitalistic policies the society becomes brittle. Societal and cultural moorings get uprooted. Restrictions and rigid state high- handedness by the state, expectations for freedom of speech and choice which is denied creates tensions in Chinese society. Disparity between rich and poor increases. Economic growth bubble based on GDP bursts with chronic and irreversible environmental degradation and pollution of rivers and cities. Climate Change exacerbates the situation with negative impact on snow and glaciers of Tibet. Water and soil stress lead to massive shortages in food. China loses its manufacturing advantage and joblessness grows. Reforms in China reach their limit. This to revival of Maoism ( like Naxalism in India) with Chinese characteristics of the Great Leap forward and the Cultural Revolution. Mainland China sees shades of Warring Period remerge.

People of the regions in the periphery like Tibet and Xingjian who for long felt suppressed on top down economic policies and demographic change assert themselves. Scenario could replicate fragmentation of former Soviet Union. TAR demands Greater Tibet and turmoil takes place in China and its regions.

International community comes to help China with proviso to grant autonomy to Tibet in accordance of the desire of Tibetans as a tool of conflict termination over civil conflict and separatism.

Policies for India

Policies to Cater for Scenario or Help Shape Scenarios?

One question that must be asked is are the policies meant for the scenario which unfolds or are the policies the one that help shape or facilitate scenario? If we continue to base our behaviour on the Cold War and pre-Cold war thinking, then it appears that a realist model based on fear and greed will dominate the thinking.9 The ideal may be if scenarios are conceptualized and efforts applied to achieve them with a liberal view. However, it needs to be noted that “how little we understand, and how we control even less”.10

With having written scenarios based on imagination and literature survey it is hoped that these policies may be acceptable to the Chinese, Tibetans and Indians. Rather, it may motivate both China and India to address the question of Tibet.

Tibetan Buddhism

The first policy suggestion is on Tibetans and Buddhism. India needs to take initiative to facilitate dialogue between CTA in exile in India and the Chinese. Misperceptions leading to 1962 border war need to be removed. India is a plural society and Tibetans have been given shelter for religious, cultural and humanitarian reasons. Real Tibetan Autonomy does not mean break up of China. It means religious and cultural rights and growth and development on Buddhist values and not ruthless capitalistic modes which attempt to dominate or rule nature. It is unlikely that in Scenario 1 the Tibetans will give up their external struggle even in post 14th Dalai Lama scenario. Rather post 14th Dalai Lama their may be no leader of stature for China to engage. The situation may become worst with young Tibetans shunning the path of non- violence. Ideal is scenario 2 though India will need to work hard to retain its top position in Buddhism. Scenario 3 will test India’s foreign policy and diplomacy. It is unlikely that India will act like a predator, rather India will need to further cooperate over the water resources emanating from Tibet. India as a responsible power with regional and global influence will be pivotal in conflict resolution.

Ecology of Tibet

Tibet is a global ecosystem and a climate crankshaft similar to Amazon rain forests. It has the source of all major rivers to South and South East Asia. Narrow sovereign thinking on Tibet will do more harm than good. It is linked to the Indian Himalayas. Thus it is ripe time for the countries of the region to conduct, consolidate and record scientific studies on the degradation of the ecosystem both due to man made economic policies and due to climate change. Countries of the region must reach conclusion and understanding of both adaptations and mitigation. This is the first step on hard facts and scientific evidence. India’s National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC), mentions two things.

It says that available monitoring data on Himalayan glaciers indicates that while recession of some glaciers has occurred in some Himalayan regions in recent past, the trend in not consistent across the entire the entire mountain chain. In its National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem it “seeks to understand whether and the extent to which, the Himalayan glaciers are in recession and how the problem would be addressed. This will require the joint effort of climatologists, glaciologists, and other experts. India will need to exchange information with South Asian countries and countries sharing the Himalayan ecology”.11 For 2030 studies such initiatives must now be implemented including joint deliberations on the common rivers according to international norms of water sharing.

Nomads

The third policy suggestion is on a relook on the nomads. The time to call then primitive is now over. Traditional ecological knowledge has been their basic tool. That must be preserved. Pastures and grasslands must be allowed to flourish.

Mitigation of Climate Change by Developed Countries

The fourth policy suggestion is mitigation of climate change. Both the Himalayas and Qinghai-Tibet plateau are unique eco-systems. They need unique global help. Here India, China and countries dependent on Tibet ecosystem must argue for the developed countries to limit emission to avoid tipping events.

Notes:

1. China’s National Climate Change Programme, National Development and Reform Commission, PRC, June 2007, p 6.
2. China’s Policies and Actions for Addressing Climate Change, Information Office of the State Council of the PRC, October 2008, Beijing. p. 9. Ibid, p 9.
3. Michael Zhao and Orville Schell, “Tibet: Plateau in Peril”, World Policy Journal, Vol. XXV. No.3, Fall 2008, pp. 171-180.
4. Ibid.
5. Ibid
6. As quoted by Wim van Spengen, Tibetan Borders: A Geohistoric Analysis of Trade and Traders, London and New York, Keegan Paul International, 2000, pp. 98-102.
7. Michael Zhao and Orville Schell, “Tibet: Plateau in Peril”, World Policy Journal, Vol. XXV. No.3, Fall 2008, pp. 171-180
8. Barry Buzan, “China in International Society: Is ‘Peaceful Rise Possible’?”, The Chinese Journal of International Politics, Vol.3. No.1, Spring 2010, pp.5-36.
9. With hindsight as wisdom some scholars mention that break up of Soviet Union was planned when Star war initiative was launched in 1980s. This led to the Soviets imploding due to unsustainable high defence expenditure
10. Thomas Homer Dixon, The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity, and the Renewal of Civilization, Washington, Island Press, 2006, p.29.
11. NAPCC, p.15 and 5.