Indian Defence Review

Over the past 65 years, China has erected psychological walls with all its neighbors.  First, China shut itself from the world while it carried out internal purges.  Today, China has walls of intransigence with Japan, Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, and India.  With Russia, the relationship is hot now and cold now – though the recent closeness of Russia and China is a cause for alarm to the Free world.  With the West, China still carries grudges from 115 years ago when the eight-nation alliance,sailed up the Yangtse River, bombing embankments, and occupied the Imperial Palace in Beijing, defeating the Boxer Rebellion that had gained momentum by killing missionaries and Christians.  China did not see this as a military defeat, but as a humiliation, as if every defeat is a humiliation.  But, these walls are not easily broken, as China is emotionally entrenched in them.

The Great Wall of China, a mammoth engineering structure visible from outer space, was first reported constructed in the 7th century BC, enhanced later by China’s first emperor, Qin Shi Huang, in 220–206 BC, and then revived during the Ming dynasty in the 14th century AD, all ostensibly with the purpose of keeping raiders outside the kingdom from entering China, centered around Xian and Peking.  For all practical purposes, the Great Wall was a military structure.  As great as was its engineering marvel and construction logistics, that much short sighted and ill-considered was its intended purpose, for it never succeeded in keeping out the raiders, who time and time again came around the ends of the walls, and ransacked villages and towns of China anyway.

The present name of the Great Wall was given by Europeans in recent centuries, but the wall has been known by other names in Chinese, such as the “long wall,” the “barrier,” the “rampart,” and so on.  Mao Tse Tung impressed the Great Wall on the people of China by saying “anyone who has not visited the Great wall is not a human being.”  A monument to this statement is seen at the Great Wall.  Thus, in their timidity, fear, and diffidence, the Chinese people visit the Great Wall in droves, hoping to be recognized as a legitimate human!

Constructed in hilly terrain, the location was a poor military selection in the first place, traversing hilly terrain and hill peaks from where raiders didn’t even want to ever pass to get to Beijing.  As such, it was a colossal waste of natural resources and funds from the treasury.  Estimated today at costing roughly $2 million a mile, the Great Wall would cost $10 billion to build today.  Any military of a developing nation would today think multiple times before investing this type of money into keeping the enemy out, but emperor after Chinese emperor made the wacky mistake of spending inordinate sums of money to pursue an ineffective military strategy.  This is what continues to speak about the mindset of the present Communist Party of China and Xi Jianping.

The Concept of Walls and Fences

In and of itself, a wall is not altogether an irrational concept, though it may be injudicious.  The Berlin Wall, erected virtually overnight by the German Democratic Republic, to curtail widespread immigration from East Germany to West Germany via West Berlin, was extremely effective in its intended purpose.  But, it must be noted that the total length of the Berlin Wall was only 96 miles, which length is quite easily controlled in contrast to the 5,000 mile Great Wall.

At other times, India has constructed fences along the Bangladesh border, and along the Kashmir and Punjab borders.  Though not quite as expensive as a heavy masonry block barrier such as the Great Wall, the intention is the same.  Along the Bangladesh border, the effectiveness is arguable, because border guards are reportedly easily bribed to turn a blind eye to human trafficking and smuggling; along the Kashmir border, the results are mixed because jihadis still get through from POK to IOK.

Another version of a barrier is the type like the Ichogill canal constructed by Pakistan outside Lahore.  In 1965, advance units of Gen Harbaksh Singh’s army easily crossed the canal and entered Lahore without opposition, but only to be withdrawn by Gen Harbaksh himself, since his aim was different – to tie down

Pakistani forces in Lahore so that they wouldn’t threaten East Punjab[1].  Nevertheless, the canal, by itself, is barely a major obstruction for modern day sappers.  However, a water canal can cause delays to an invading force, where the attacking army has to create and maintain bridgeheads, which is not easy against an entrenched defensive army.

At other times, the Indian army deliberately created an undeveloped, no-man’s barrier at the Arunachal border by not developing that area, and not constructing roads at border areas.  Of itself, this is an effective strategy, i.e., to deny a stronger, invading force the ability to quickly come inside your country while holding out the potential to bomb all enemy forces within that undeveloped tract, since the invading army cannot move fast in undeveloped terrain.  But now, with an offensive strike corps’ in the works, India’s strategy has changed quite dramatically and meaningfully.

More than 45 walls and barriers have been built along international borders since 1945.[2]  Famous fences exist between US and Mexico, built by the US; Israel and the West Bank, built by Israel; Georgia and South Ossetia, built by Russia; Spain and Morocco, built by Spain, to curtail illegal migrants; Morocco and Spanish Sahara; walls in Baghdad to separate Sunni from Shia populations, built by the US …. and so many more.

The walls along international borders in the present world are somewhat effective for the purpose they are constructed – to curtail illegal immigrants and terrorists from crossing over.  But, in contrast, the Great Wall of China was totally ineffective over a prolonged period of many centuries, but yet, successive emperors continued to think the dividing walls could be effective.  Even now, Chinese leaders think their international policies with its neighbors are effective, but fail to think that they may be bringing some calamity upon themselves by earning the wrath and resentment of their neighbors.

Daft Beliefs in China

Despite China producing the impeccable moral writings of Confucious, and the marvelous Sun Tzu Art of War, it appears that military practicality escaped the emperors.  Besides the Great Wall, the Xian Terracotta Warriors are a masterpiece evidence of the ridiculousness of Chinese beliefs.  Even today, having been denied the benefit of religion and spirituality, the Chinese are an extremely superstitious group of people.

The Terracotta Warriors were a replica of Emperor Qin Shi Huang’s army, constructed to protect the emperor in the after life.   This mimics the backward beliefs of the Egyptian Pharaohs who believed that their emperors would need goods, dresses, and jewelry in the afterlife.  Such absurd thinking was never prevalent in India even in those centuries, when India already had the benefit of the Upanishads, Vedas, and Buddhist teachings.  However, such – or similar – nonsensical thinking among Chinese military planners has continued to the present day. The Chinese leaders continue to alienate all their neighbors and the rest of the world, while projecting smiling faces, dyed black hair, and western suits and ties.  To believe China is to be fooled by China.  And astonishingly, even though the Terracotta Warriors are a sign of the fatuousness of Chinese emperors and Chinese thinking, the present Chinese continue to claim the “greatness” of those warrior sculptures, as if claiming the greatness of their past emperors, who really were apparently boneheaded, means that they, themselves, are great.

The Intransigent Walls of China

Over the past 65 years, China has erected psychological walls with all its neighbors.  First, China shut itself from the world while it carried out internal purges.  Today, China has walls of intransigence with Japan, Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, and India.  With Russia, the relationship is hot now and cold now – though the recent closeness of Russia and China is a cause for alarm to the Free world.  With the West, China still carries grudges from 115 years ago when the eight-nation alliance[3],[4]sailed up the Yangtse River, bombing embankments, and occupied the Imperial Palace in Beijing, defeating the Boxer Rebellion that had gained momentum by killing missionaries and Christians.  China did not see this as a military defeat, but as a humiliation, as if every defeat is a humiliation.  But, these walls are not easily broken, as China is emotionally entrenched in them.

For no major reason – except for land grab – in the same tone as barbaric emperors of ancient times – China has taken inflexible and obstinate positions over territory in the East and South China Seas, and along the Indo-Tibetan border.  This reflects nothing but the ominous signal that its “emperors” – the present day leaders — are once again asinine in their approach to the realities of existence on Earth.

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The present-day battle with Japan over Senkaku is partly about the grudges of World War II, though China brushes under the carpet that its own leader, the eccentric Mao, sent 70 million Chinese to their death during the great famine.  For China to resurrect the issue of Japanese behavior is to forget that the invasions of the Japanese helped to weaken the colonial grip across India, China, and East Asia, leading to the ultimate freedom of these countries.  There is always some good in virtually everything.

This brings to perspective the bizarre embalming of the body of Mao Tse Tung, with the equally eccentric belief that they can make Mao Tse Tung live forever by doing so.[5]

Chinese Aggressiveness

China is aggressive not only in its international politics. The Communist Party of China has undertaken very deep brainwashing over the past 65 years such that every Chinese is now aggressive as well as beholden to the Communist Party.  This aggressiveness shows in the behavior of the Chinese urban, educated people – and also in its rustic lower class of urban centers.  Taxi drivers, tourist guides, hotel personnel, business partners, etc. – basically, the common people — are corrupt, deceptive, and aggressive.  Aggressiveness in the name of China is further pressed into the educated citizens by mandating military training, and by having trainers shout down at 18-year old college students during that training.

The aggressive behavior of the Chinese was further deepened by design by preventing urban parents from having more than one child except by paying penalty.  Now, the young Chinese look to the Communist Party for succor.  After their parents pass on, they look upon the Communist Party as their father and mother.  Since there is no concept of God in the communist manifesto, the Communist Party loves this new status the youngsters give it.  But, it is all by design with the purpose of subverting the traditional concept of family, and making every Chinese citizen beholden to the Communist Regime.  The signs are that the“1984” of George Orwell is most likely situated in the about-to-come years of 21st century China.

Even a taxi driver in Kuala Lumpur spoke to me about the across-the-board aggressive behavior of Chinese tourists, such that he wishes he could THROW them out of his taxi; on the other side, the author has witnessed Chinese aggression in various shapes and forms in business and professional interactions, only to realize that they are silenced best when the aggression is reciprocated.  Diplomacy is absolutely not respected by the Chinese, and is taken as a definite sign of weakness by them.  After all, they know very well that words can never kill people, only bullets can.  Somehow, India fails to recognize that fully.

For Westerners and others who think that capitalism and economic advancement will bring about a change or revolution for democracy in China, I have a message:  It’s NOT happening.  If anything, the younger generation is becoming more proud and arrogant with the accomplishments of the Communist Party and the ability of the Chinese government to stand up to its neighbors and USA.  Therefore, the next Chinese generation is likely to be even more aggressive than the present, and by 2050, it is possible that the whole of China will be even more thoroughly brainwashed and aggressive than at present.  Hence, a major war of the rest of the world breaking out against China around 2050 is very likely, though Russia is a wild card here, where it is not known on whose side it will fight or stay neutral.

Testing the USA and Other countries

Periodically, China undertakes belligerent acts against the USA, like faking an air accident between one of its fighter planes and a US surveillance plane; threatening US overflights over Senkaku; and threatening US naval patrols in the South China Sea.  China “tests” Indian resolve by making incursions in Leh/Ladakh and Arunachal.  China “tests” Vietnam by trying to stop Vietnam from exploring for gas in the South China Sea; and “tests” Japanese resolve on Senkaku.  All these tests are for one purpose: to learn of the others’ behavior.  But, as yet, China will not likely venture for a major battle with any nation in the foreseeable five years, but will slowly calibrate itself, test others and learn from them, build up its own military strength with the economic muscle it has developed[6], while keeping all adversaries guessing and unbalanced.  This is typical Sun Tzu in action, and the world is already falling for Chinese baits.  Only when China has military superiority to at least defend ALL its borders simultaneously, will it seek to take offensive action in a limited war, but not before.  Every success will be followed by further forays till they will divide and isolate small nations before swallowing them.

The US to Blame

The USA is already bitterly complaining about Chinese cyberspace warfare, with being able to do little about it.  But, the USA has itself to blame.  First, Nixon made the blunder of opening up to the dragon to contain the bear.  Now, the same dragon is not only not grateful, but breathes fire upon the USA itself.  If anyone visits China, one can see US retail stores and brand names dotting all the great malls; virtually everything that China does has been the gift of USA, and large exports are made to the USA, showing how dependent China is on the USA.  Instead of being grateful to a client, China bites the hand that feeds it.  While American investors fueled the rise of Baidu, China bans Google in Beijing.  None of this can be good for China from a moral perspective: what goes around must come around.

Next, Bill Clinton gave tax breaks to US companies and factories to take American companies to China.  After the great sucking sound died down, USA was left empty with more than half its manufacturing gone to China.  And now the USA wonders why China shows it its eyes!

In the same vein, the US and Australia allow Chinese students to study in the USA.  Those Chinese students take back technology and secrets to China.  The US and Australia, in their merchant mind, think they are making money by allowing Chinese students to study in the US, but in reality, the Chinese are in the US and Australia to learn from the only enemy that stands in its ambition to be the no. 1 nation in the world.

The Chinese Diaspora

Another mistake the world makes is to think that the Chinese diaspora is vastly different to the Chinese Communist Party.  The US and European nations, including Australia, think that they are able to convert the Chinese diaspora, make them “democratic” in their thinking, and make them ally with the free Western world.  But, this is only half-true.  The Chinese diaspora donates large sums of money for Chinese projects in the mainland; they still have family back in China, and visit them often – much like the Indian or any other diaspora.  Much of the Chinese diaspora is “loyal” to the Chinese mainland, no matter which political party is in power there.  Hence, whether it is Malaysian Chinese, Fijian Chinese, Australian Chinese, Indian Chinese, or American Chinese, this diaspora is still likely to lean toward mainland China if mainland China is involved in a war.  Emotional sentiments are hard to dissolve, and so is the case with the Chinese diaspora.

At present, the richest people in the Philippines, Malaysia, and Indonesia are Chinese; the Panama Canal is controlled by the Chinese; the Chinese are buying real estate in Sydney in large numbers; and every Chinatown in every major world city has a Chinese crime ring center and spy ring center.  The Communist party actively engages the rich diaspora to invest back in China, represent China in its international dialogues, and generate intelligence for China.  In addition, China is avidly encouraging Chinese nationals to migrate to the USA and join the military there.  Anybody can imagine where the loyalties of those people will lie.  Such government driven programs are dangerous, indeed.  This is unlike India, which has no such program.  But, all indicators point to China planning a take over of the world from every which way, including by giving many gifts and benefits to the small Pacific and all African nations, and it is doing so in an organized, deliberate manner.

Chinese Money in Political Action

The Chinese now have their fingers in the politics of every nation.  They fund political groups and Chinese sympathizers in Nepal, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Thailand, Cambodia, Indonesia, Taiwan, and Philippines.  They fund Indian Naxalite and ULFA terrorist outfits.  And, they bribe and twist the arm of any foreign officials they can get to.   For the first time, China sent in military personnel into Nepal only a few months ago as part of disaster relief.  This is, no doubt, going to be followed by more.  China actually pays political groups that are in its favor in the corrupt Central Asia, as well as pay for political action in South-east Asia through its diaspora.  In many ways, China already has numerous countries in its sway – Africa being heavily pronounced – and so China is not a lonely power.  All signs reveal that the Chinese have a long term game plan in action – and that is incontrovertibly to dominate the world.  Over the past few years, China has increased its Antarctic presence to the highest of any nation, and has the largest presence of military personnel there, begging the question what China has in mind.  One only wonders what is the USA’s plan to counter China’s emerging dominance, and whether that plan is going to be effective.

Conclusions

One has to watch out for China – not just for the next five years – but for the next 35 years.  This type of planning horizon is not seen in the Western and democratic countries, who can only see till the next election cycle and then minus some.  In China, to the contrary, they know that the Communist Party is going nowhere, and so they have the luxury to plan far into the future – up to 50 years out.

While the rest of the world is presently distracted in the Middle East, China is using this time to prepare for military superiority and world dominance.  The rate of growth they have had over the past three-and-half decades shows that they can achieve the same growth in military affairs.  It will be recalled that Xi Jianping is reducing the riffraff part of his PLA by 300,000 people, but will invest all that money into modernization, defense production, and military might.

Let no one be fooled: if China today is hard to control, the future China of 2050 is going to be vastly more powerful, belligerent, and intransigent than the China of today.  China will build great walls between nations and alliances, and then build walls between its own citizens, such that all Chinese citizens are beholden and loyal to their Communist Party.  This is ominous, forbidding, malefic, and Orwellian.  The only chance the world has against the emergence of a suppressive and unreligious China is to somehow arrest the economic growth of China, else the dragon surely plans – from all evidence displayed — to burn everyone.  Never give a dragon a chance, for any time it’s given a chance, it seeks revenge and dominance – that is the inherent nature of the mythical dragon; world leaders do not believe in mythological precepts, but the Chinese take everything about the mythical dragon very seriously.  Richard Nixon and Bill Clinton made their mistakes, but let the present and future leaders of nations not repeat them.  But all this is no respite for India, for whom the challenges against a rising China are going to increase if they do not want to capitulate to a domineering China as a vassal state would.  India will have to be specially imaginative and technologically creative if it wishes to stay abreast of China’s developing military power.