Geopolitics

The Fragile Af-Pak Policy
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Issue Vol 24.4 Oct-Dec2009 | Date : 07 Feb , 2011

Endowed with this fierce sense of “individual independence”, overwhelming majority of the inhabitants of Waziristan do not consider themselves to be Pakistanis in the legal sense. They simply do not realise that the Durand line has made them Pakistanis.

Similarly, frequent press statements from 2005 to 2007 by President Pervez Musharraf calling for the building of a fence delineating the Afghanistan–Pakistan border have been met with resistance from numerous political parties within both the countries. Leaders of Pashtuns on both sides of the border do not recognize the Durand Line. Afghan President Hamid Karzai has systematically avoided the issue.

Conclusion

Pakistan’s de jure western border has ceased to exist. In fact, this realisation has made it imperative for Pakistan to get even more deeply involved in determining who rules in Kabul. According to one US Task Force on Terrorism and Unconventional Warfare report, Islamabad has always been anxious to secure a docile Pashtun-dominated government in Kabul. This explains Islamabad’s continuing and increasing involvement in affairs pertaining to Afghanistan. It always wants a dependent government in Kabul that would more likely ensure the de facto preservation of the lapsed and abrogated Durand Line, even if it could not be converted into an international border. Of course, there is the added advantage of a Pakistani-dominated Afghanistan constituting a forward strategic depth on Pakistan’s western flank vis-à-vis India; but that is a different matter.

Viewed thus, Pakistan is facing a peculiar problem in Waziristan, or for that matter, with its Afghanistan-policy as a whole. The aggravation of the crisis in Waziristan is deeply interlinked with the resurgence of the Taliban and al-Qaeda in the region. That means that the remedy lies in Islamabad abandoning, once and for all, its policy of engagement, covert if not overt, with the Taliban in the hope of using them to retrieve its lost influence in Afghanistan.

Pakistan is facing a peculiar problem in Waziristan, or for that matter, with its Afghanistan-policy as a whole. The aggravation of the crisis in Waziristan is deeply interlinked with the resurgence of the Taliban and al-Qaeda in the region

After all, the situation in Waziristan is a hangover from the past when this area was one of the staging posts for the anti-Soviet resistance in Afghanistan during the 1980s. And when that war was over, many of the Arab and other ‘mujahideen’ had nowhere to go, as their own countries — Egypt, Saudi Arabia, etc — were wary of ‘Islamic radicalism’. So they remained behind in Waziristan, some of them even marrying into the local tribes. These “retired” jihadis have now regrouped under the leadership of Osama bin Laden.

Noted Pakistani analyst Ayaz Amir is right when he says that  the Pakistanis, with their better local knowledge, should have been left to handle the Waziristan problem in line with history and tradition. But that has not been done. Old tribal structures, which had withstood the test of time, stand demolished. Pro-government tribal figures have been killed. The army is licking its wounds. Moderate sentiment has been crushed while the Taliban are stronger than ever. Now the Pakistani leadership has woken up to a new refrain, warning western audiences that the Taliban were now a more serious threat than al-Qaeda, conveniently forgetting its own role in making the Taliban powerful in the two Waziristans. It has inflamed tribal sentiments and brought wider support to the Taliban cause.

There does not seem to be an easy solution ahead. Pakistan’s Taliban policy has boomeranged. And now its “military approach” to rectify the situation is not simply working in the absence a of a clear policy and vision of what Pakistan will be. The fact remains that Pakistan is now confronted with a resurgent al-Qaeda that aims at Pakistan’s disintegration. Osama now seems determined to create his own sovereign state comprising Afghanistan, parts of NWFP, Waziristan, Baluchistan and Kashmir as an ideological launching pad for his global terror war.

But then, the problem that Pakistan is facing is a problem that has ominous implications for the United States, Afghanistan and even India. This problem needs to be met in a combined manner by the global community. But for this, Pakistan needs to take extra two steps forward. It must win over the trust of the world community as far as its sincerity in fighting terrorism is concerned, and that, in turn, requires the support of all the Pakistanis. But that is proving illusory.

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The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or policies of the Indian Defence Review.

About the Author

Prakash Nanda

is a journalist and editorial consultant for Indian Defence Review. He is also the author of “Rediscovering Asia: Evolution of India’s Look-East Policy.”

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