Indian Defence Review

Ending Proxy War Requires Holistic Approach

The real problem is not the terrorists or separatists but the fragmented approach of the government. All stakeholders should ideally work in an integrated manner and not independently. If the military is taking tough action against the terrorists, the police must act against the workers on the ground to prevent the atmosphere from being vitiated by them. The political leadership should play a role in keeping the channels of communication open so that at every stage there is a window of opportunity to negotiate and cool tempers.

Leveraging and Coordinating Tools of Governance

The military cannot achieve everything alone; all denominations of national power (political, diplomatic, information, military and economic) must be leveraged and applied in a coordinated manner and not independent of each other. These leverages should be employed to weaken the movement and strengthen the trust of the people in the system. This strategy is conspicuous by its absence in J&K and often working at cross-purposes. The demand for removal of AFSPA and relocation of critical military locations from towns that control and deny space to terrorists and their proxy is a bad strategy and undermines the actions of security forces. It sets dangerous trends that will make operations by security forces more difficult.

War of Ideas

The war of ideas can be won by reducing the visibility of soldiers in public space and increased visibility of perception. The objective is to win the hearts and minds of the local population and a single actor can control or win this war. It will succeed when the proxies of Pakistan, thugs and terrorists are exposed for their ill-conceived acts of subversion that hurt the interests of the common man. The government will have to invest heavily in intelligence and information warfare.

In 2011, the total defence budget of the USA was $872 billion, and $75 billion (close to ten per cent of the total budget) was meant for the intelligence and information warfare.¹³ The other front through which the war of ideas can be won is secret wars by faceless soldiers and unstructured organisations. Secret wars are executed by professionals and Special Forces and controlled by political and military strategic leadership.

Strategy Against Terrorists

Security forces should not only focus on individual terrorists, but also defeat the strategy of terror organisations. What are they doing? What are the means at their disposal to accomplish their objectives? How they will be leveraging their means to execute the task? That is what the focus should be. There could be some over-ground workers and terror organisations that may appear to be involved in noble cause, but their objective may be more about achieving or controlling public space. Such a stagey and facade needs to be exposed to present the real picture and motives of the noble deeds. The strategy to deal with cross-border terrorism should incorporate the following:

• Ensure own soldiers’ actions do not alienate the population and/or increase their motivation to support the insurgents.
• Engage the media, including those which are not trusted; denial or delay in sharing information is exploited by adversaries and information space once lost, is rarely recovered. Handwara is a case in point. Delayed information was perceived as culpability of the security forces. Whereas the entire incident was related to eve-teasing and molestation of a girl by local goons.
• Pakistan is able to shift the strategy from one platform to another swiftly. When there is a pressure on terrorists, the agitational strategy occupies centre stage and when agitations are low key, terror activities rise. This is assisting Pakistan and its proxies to prevent being isolated or being predictable. In this regard, own strategy has remained reactionary and focused on crisis management. The responsibility completely rests with the operational and strategic leaders since the tactical commander may not be thinking long-term; he is thinking about achieving his objectives and bringing his troops safely to posts.
• The strategy of fighting trans-border terrorism on own land is flawed. The adversary is most vulnerable when the threat is reversed at the point of initiation.
• Tactical operations are succeeding and objectives are being achieved though at great cost in terms of lives. But the problem is managing strategic outcomes. This is what is appearing to be the weakest link. Strategic objectives are compromised due to our inability to perceive Pakistan’s shifting strategy. Our strategic leadership has to develop capabilities to forecast and pre-empt this strategy. This would need deep assets, a sound intelligence network and an integrated approach.
• The military should be used as a “hammer in reserve” and not the first and the last tool of conflict resolution.

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• “Victory” in the asymmetric battle-space is not by eliminating terrorists or its leaders. That will not stop the resistance, or the terror tactics, rather it may fuel further radicalisation. Victory in asymmetric battle-space implies eroding the source of energy to terrorists. Regular/conventional operations will produce ordinary results and irregular/extraordinary actions will produce extraordinary results. Black Operations across the LOC are an option and opportunities should not be lost. Such operations are high risk but with high dividends. Targets should be terror camps and leadership sitting across. Parveen Swami says, “Sub-conventional wars cannot be fought with conventional means.”¹⁴

No Sympathy for the Devils.¹⁵

J&K state and Central government can’t allow hooligans to hold state to ransom. It is the result of policy of appeasement. The record of conviction of even the Pakistani terrorists for waging war against India is dismal. The rioters are being released on pretext of good will and the result is that rioters are becoming bolder by the day. Use of force is a necessity to control chaos and public cannot be given a choice to break the law.

POK as the Epicentre of Proxy War

Sushma Swaraj, the External Affairs Minister, said in the UN General Assembly, “The core issue is POK and not J&K.”¹⁶ The voices of dissent against Pakistan’s high-handed approach towards the citizens of POK are slowly getting louder. It is India’s moral and legal obligation to support the cause of the people in POK including the rising voices against Human Rights violations by the Pakistan Army. If India wants to raise the cost, POK can’t be allowed to remain calm. If POK is calm, the noise for independence will grow louder by the day. The key to resolving the J&K imbroglio is POK. Pakistan has adopted the strategy to recapture Kabul and cripple Kashmir.¹⁷ India should apply the same strategy and should invest in efforts to cripple POK (including the Northern Areas) that can make the proxy war prohibitive to Pakistan.

Chinese Footprints in POK: A Corridor of Peril

This development cannot be taken lightly. Pakistan wants to alter the economic landscape of POK by inviting China to undertake infrastructure development in POK including hydropower and road network. With a $46 billion commitment of development of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), POK is likely to see a change. The Government of India must ensure that there is no truck between Chinese authorities with Hurriyat and other secessionist elements.

Water as Leverage

On November 30, 1960, after signing the Indus Water Treaty, Prime Minister Nehru asserted in Lok Sabha, “We have purchased a settlement, if you like; we have purchased peace to that extent and it is good for both countries”.¹⁸ The Treaty has ensured that India has forsaken its right on Indus water forever. When there is a war, all treaties must stand suspended. The vital fact is that India is utilising not even 20 per cent of its upper riparian share of water while almost 20 to 25 per cent of Kashmiris are living without electricity and 55 per cent are without safe drinking water.¹⁹ Pakistan is conscious of the fact that as long as the proxy war remains, the Kashmiri Awam will not be demanding its full share of water from the rivers flowing into Pakistan. There is no reason why India should not exploit 15,000 MW potential of power in J&K without violating the water treaty with Pakistan.²⁰

Peace Through Strength²¹

The country that sponsors terrorism as a state policy must get a message, “desist from acts of terror or be prepared to die.” Peace through strength has worked along the LOC, because it hurts the Pakistani army directly. The time has come for India to send a tough message by first downgrading its diplomatic mission and secondly, using all its deep assets to repay Pakistan in the same coin in POK.

Putting Steel Frame in Place

The recent unrest in Kashmir valley had a typical Pakistan signature. The unrest in Valley, impetus on infiltration and attack on vulnerable soft targets in the rear areas – is this a dry rehearsal for a recreation of the 1965 scenario? But this time by creating favourable ground situation in rear areas to paralyse the line of communication and breaking logistic support to the troops in contact. It will be a costly mistake to just treat the unrest as spontaneous anger over the killing of Burhan Wani. Pakistan Army and ISI probably tested how will this unrest impact logistic supply, side stepping of forces, security of logistic installations and induction of reserves. There is a need to debate this scenario and examine the implications if Pakistan does implement this strategy in near future. Is Pakistan trudging dangerous path to expand the spectrum of conflict is a big question? India must remember that it was Nawaz Sharif who was the Prime Minister when Kargil happened.

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Conclusion

It is not the Indian Army’s war alone; it is an integrated war, a war of ideas and in such an environment, conflict management is the responsibility of all stakeholders including civil and military leadership. Along with army operations, political, diplomatic, intelligence, information and economic initiatives are a must to set the stage for conflict resolution. Conflict resolution is a prolonged political process but unfortunately, in J&K and even in the North East, it has been outsourced to the Army. The Army is not an instrument of conflict resolution because it will never be given mandate to set the framework for resolution. What it could be trusted with is conflict management, not even conflict termination.

The focus of the political leadership in Delhi and Srinagar has remained on the formation of government and regaining power, whereas Pakistan has managed to indigenise the war in J&K – its ultimate objective. This will give credibility to the so-called struggle for self-determination. Pakistan is expanding its space in public and cognitive domain and indirectly gaining control of public psyche and actions. Brahma Chellaney says, “There is no state in the world, which has put up with so many acts of aggression without responding”.²² Pakistan is surrounded by vulnerabilities, Sindh, Baluchistan, FATA and POK (including Northern Areas) and all present opportunities to respond adequately to Pakistan. Robert Greene says, “Where the stakes are so high, there is no moral taint in using deception.”²³ The deterioration in the ground situation and shrinking political and government space is leading to dangerous consequences. Indian political and military leadership will have to cast away the defensive mindset and create leverages to make the proxy war prohibitive for Pakistan. A moral high ground is the weapon of the weak and the meek. Therefore, the process of reversing the threat should be now or never. Peace with Pakistan can be achieved only by demonstrating strength.²⁴