Indian Defence Review

Wild Card Scenarios

Several wild card situations are possible and those remotely likely are discussed. First, the take over of the Pakistani state by a radical Taliban regime could portend grave challenges. Taliban led by a messianic leader and supported by a few political parties initially assume power at the provincial level and gradually emerges as a powerful political force in the centre. An Afghanistan like situation of mid 1990s emerges which blatantly tramples all democratic values and institutions across the length and breadth of the country.

Second, the country’s nuclear assets despite best attempts of the military leadership and the United States pass in part or whole into the hands of radical elements. Such a situation engineered by the al-Qaida could force the United States to launch a counter strike to wrest back the nuclear assets. This could generate an intense internal backlash eventually resulting in a civil war. And thirdly, increased attempts by the United States to unilaterally strike at some of the al-Qaida strongholds within the frontier provinces leads to a political backlash within the country, and the radical elements seize the opportunity and rise to force a regime change.

The massive floods in Pakistan surely proved to be a disastrous wild card. With more than 20 million people displaced; 1.8 million houses damaged; 1.2 million cattle heads lost; a fifth of the cotton crop wiped out; and vast tracts of the most fertile arable land along the Indus River deluged, this tragedy surpasses any other disaster witnessed recently. The magnitude of the devastation and damage caused has been colossal and some experts argue that Pakistan may take years before its fully recovers.

Conclusion

In absence of clear alternative futures, the pendulum of power will continue to swing, with the possibility of a collapse always looming in the background. But then a weak Pakistan threatens everyone in the region. Pakistan’s future scenarios are linked to the regional future which all must work to transform. Given the current political and religious drift, it is unlikely that these ideal conditions can ever be achieved. This process will have to be multi-faceted and anticipatory rather than reactive. And if it does not happen, then like all else it will be subsumed in due course. And then there would be far too much at stake for all stakeholders, and especially the lead countries to allow the current downward trajectory to continue.

Could Pakistan draw itself out from the scenarios – fragile, failed and fragmented – and become a functional state is the big question. No wonder betting on plausible politico-military alternatives in Pakistan by 2030 can be inherently risky and fickle.