Indian Defence Review

Mindset of Different Origin has Different Destiny. Most of the ethnic tribes are reluctant to accommodate or accept other community as equal partners in the nation building process. However, some of the self-seeking leaders advocate that different origins have different destinies. Call for Greater Nagalim, an exclusive Kuki state, Assam for Ahom are barriers to developing the concept of state nationalism. This mindset can only be broken when there is restoration of faith and trust between government and the people and between the tribes and ethnic communities as well.

Failure to Appreciate the Geostrategic Location of North East. There are few parallels as far as the North East is concerned. Yunnan, Tibet and Xinxiang have similar significance to China as North East has to India, Alaska to US and now Crimea to Ukraine/Russia. Therefore, the North East deserves to be treated as the mainland and equal, if not more significant than other parts of India. It is painful to read when some identify North East as the peripheral areas or land sandwiched between five nations or referring to North East as national vulnerability. Such expressions are indeed a manifestation of the lack of knowledge of the geographical significance of the North East.

Perceptional Difference or Genuine Grievances? Although the problem is perceptional difference, there are genuine grievances as well. Movements against illegal Bangladeshi migrants, lack of development, poor governance, corruption and apathy towards the citizens and their welfare is genuine. However, division of the Naga inhabited areas into four states or denial of greater Nagalim, reorganisation of land records, exploration of natural resources and secessionist movements have emerged primarily from perceptional differences and lack of effort by state and Central Governments to engage with the tribal leaders. Somehow the perception was created in the 1950s that the tribes will lose control and rights over ancestral land and forests and social, religious and cultural freedom. Insincere and misleading signals emanating from Delhi have created an unbridgeable gulf between the government and the people.

Is Development Really an Issue? Of course development including social, economic empowerment of people is an issue. Three generations have gone by waiting for better days ahead but very little has changed on the ground. When citizens of North East compare the development with that in other parts of India, they are convinced that they are citizens of peripheral states/borderlands of India. There is no substantial improvement in communication systems, education facilities, healthcare, power generation and industrial development. One can assess from the fact that a large number of villages in the North East still do not have electricity, road connectivity and basic amenities they are entitled to.

Is the North East India’s Borderland? The region, which should have provided the platform for integration of India with the economies of the three neighbouring countries, i.e. Bangladesh, Bhutan and Myanmar which itself is economically isolated in the absence of availability of highways, power generation capacity and dry docks. The North East by now should have been the centre stage as far as India’s Look East Policy is concerned. The irony is that so far the pace of development or lack of it has displayed that North East is India’s borderland.

Is the North East Politically Light Weight? Evaluating the importance of a region on the basis of its representation in parliament or political platform is an inconsistent mindset. If a region does not make an impact as far as the formation of government is concerned, it cannot be relegated to the status of a peripheral region. Such a mindset is detrimental from the point of strategic wisdom. Rather, the North East should be looked at from a geostrategic point of view since the political, economic and social costs of turbulence in the North East in the years ahead may be too high to be borne by the nation.

Unstable Plateau. Present day North East is an unstable plateau, capable of causing turbulence in the region and destabilising the mainland especially the ‘Red Corridor’. Unregulated armed cadres, the availability of weapons and drugs as well as the activities of non-state actors and state sponsored non-state actors in neighbouring gray territories have the potential to cause uncontrolled chaos.

Development and Trust Deficit. The North East is rain surplus; the surface water resource of the region is close to 652.3 Billion Cubic Metres that shares 34 per cent of country’s total water wealth7 but is still deficient in food, power, development and security. The High-Level Commission appointed by the Prime Minister in its report submitted in 1997 (India, 1997) stated that there are four basic deficits plaguing the North East and these are:

• A basic needs deficit
• An infrastructure deficit
• A resource deficit and
• A two-way deficit of understanding with the rest of the country.

Governance Deficit. What is even more important to highlight is that the above deficits are a result of “governance deficit”. All above factors collectively have led to the NER remaining the poorest region with one of the lowest per capita income in the country. The per capita income of Assam in 2013 was Rs 42,036 against the national average of Rs 60,972 and that of Manipur at Rs 36,2908. Similarly, except for Sikkim, no other state of the NER has a higher income than the national per capita income.

Inexorable Conflict. Security has remained a concern for the government, people, entrepreneurs and even the right-thinking people. One may take solace from the fact that physical violence has reduced and insurgency-related fatalities in a state like Manipur has decreased from 416 in 2009 to 55 in 2013. But Meghalaya, which was comparatively peaceful earlier has now seen a rise in insurgency-related violence. It had five fatalities in 2009 which rose to 60 in 2013.9 It is a worrisome factor, because violence may have reduced but instability is widespread. It has given rise to the conflict of the perception within people, between the states and mainland India.

The violence may have abated but peace is still distant and the reason for this is lack of capacity-building for sustained peace. Security forces no doubt have made evident gains in containing the insurgency, the irony is that the number of underground insurgents have reduced but the number of insurgent groups have increased. In all, there are close to 100 major and minor insurgent groups operating in the North East. Recycling of insurgents is a grave threat to peace; the way forward is an effective rehabilitation policy which unfortunately exists on paper only. There is a persistent risk of destabilisation if the insurgent groups are allowed to retain weapons, trained armed cadres and organised camps. A glaring example of this is that, in spite of the ceasefire, NSCN (IM) still has the strength of approximately 800 cadres and holds almost 500 weapons in Manipur.10 Similarly KNO, UPF and some of the KCP factions have signed an Suspension of Operation (SoO) yet they retain the dedicated cadres and arsenal which is detrimental to the peace process. In the last five years, 20 tonnes of drugs and narcotics were recovered which is at a rough estimate less than five per cent of total trade taking place on the ground.

Objectives of Economic Empowerment

The mother of all problems is economic disparity and prolonged disregard to the aspirations of the people. What do the people really want?

• A secure future to prevent youth adopting the path of unlawful activities.
• To meet the needs first and aspirations later.
• To prevent uneven distribution of wealth between the ‘haves and have nots’ through equal opportunities.
• Dignity and a sense of belonging comes with economic and cultural prosperity. The youth of the North East are asking why some sections of society are more privileged than others.
• Youth are more aware and do believe that economic empowerment on borrowed money is not sustainable. Therefore, the region should be in a position to create wealth. The creation of wealth is the generation of income by exporting goods, agro products and natural resources, outside the region as well as the country.

Geographical and Economic Faultlines

Security of life against physical and cultural violence.

Communication and Connectivity. Distances are compressed in time and space by communication and connectivity. China has developed more than 58,000 km of roads to enhance connectivity in Tibet. Xinxiang today is connected to Central Asia and beyond, up to Europe. Similarly, good connectivity would have aided in breaching the economic, cultural and political faultlines.

Geography and Economy. Economic empowerment of the masses cannot be denied primarily due to the existence of harsh geography. The economy has to be linked to geography and thus a template should be adopted across the board. Heavy industries need a huge infrastructure, transportation, raw material, power and access to markets, while small scale industries, need aptitude, skill, cultural heritage and consumption in local markets. The Brahmaputra Valley is suitable for heavy industries, but Arunachal or Manipur may be suitable for small scale industries. Therefore, socio-economic and geographical limitations are imperative to be considered before laying down the road map for economic development.

Power Generation. Lack of power generation is the sole factor for the poor industrial growth, economic development, infrastructure development, education sector and agriculture sector. Life cannot be visualised without power/electricity in an information age. It is unthinkable to deprive large sections of the rural population in remote areas without electricity. One wonders whether it is a punishment or incentive to live in rural areas!

Education. Education is a basic right, but in the North East, it is outsourced and is only for those who can afford it and run as proxy. School buildings are existing but walls can’t provide education; it needs teachers, educational environment and modern educational aids which are available only on paper. Higher education institutes and opportunities are non-existent and development of human resources under such conditions is unthinakable.