Indian Defence Review

To win over the people, the Maoist used a simple tactic. Mr Kamal Thapa, former home minister and now a member of the Constituent Assembly representing the Rashtriya Prajatantra Party, said that he was intrigued by the switchover of loyalties by the cycle-rickshaw pullers to the Maoists in his constituency ‘Hetauda’. It was then revealed to him that the Maoist had asked the cycle-rickshaw pullers, as to what their daily earnings were, and how much did they pay everyday to rickshaw owners as hiring charges–which was Rs. 30 and Rs. 100 respectively. The Maoists issued a diktat that henceforth they would pay only Rs.70 to the rickshaw owner and contribute Rs.10 to the Maoist fund. Happy at the increase of their earnings from Rs.30 to Rs.50, they changed their loyalties overnight. Then they issued a diktat that no restaurant worker will be paid less than a stipulated amount. Such tactic worked, but now the politics of distribution of the Maoists is facing new hurdles on account of shortages, rising inflation, fast deteriorating infrastructure, and sharp decline in the tourism industry, which is critical to the Nepalese economy. Most Indian industries are either closed or have relocated on account of labor problems. Many industries in Birganj–Pathlayia corridor have been closed or on the brink of closure. Same is the case with industries at Itahri. All industries were there due to cheap labour and 15 percent duty difference, which will become nil after 2010 when WTO provisions come into force.

As per Mr Kamal Thapa, like the Congress, the Maoists were not averse to partnering with the monarchy. In fact, the Maoist leadership had sounded the King that the institution of monarchy could well fit in their scheme of things, as in the case of Cambodia. They urged the King to join forces with them to wipeout other political parties from the scene of Nepal, a proposal Mr Kamal Thapa said, the King refused to buy. When this did not work, the Maoists struck common cause with the political parties, which was part of their design of incremental progress towards establishing a Maoist state. There were others, who believed that the King was also not averse to use the Maoists as a counterpoise to the political parties. In that they cite the security forces operation in Holari, wherein the entire Maoist top leadership was surrounded and would have been easily eliminated but for the intervention of the King.

Acutely conscious of their limited influence the Maoists then joined hands with the other political parties. The King declared his resolve to destroy the Maoists and appeal to the political parties and the people for the need to prolong ‘emergency’ with the promise to restore democracy once the Maoist terrorism was vanquished. However, by then King Gyanendra and his son had become hugely unpopular, and ceased to enjoy any respect or patience with the monarchy. The Maoist then collaborated with other political parties to overthrow King Gyanendra, not because of their opposition to monarchy and love for democracy, but for sheer survival and for elimination of another rival power center to pave the way for the realization of a Maoist state. It may be mentioned here that some Maoist supporters still hold Gyanendra’s predecessor King Birendra in very high regard, and so do many in the Nepali Congress and other political parties. I was told that in the late 80s, Mr G P Koirala had in fact expressed his desire to King Birendra to join forces with monarchy, but the latter insisted he should launch a movement, for democracy, as the other royal family members were targeting him (King Birendra) of being soft and overly disposed in favor of democracy at the cost of monarchy. Sans Gyanendra therefore, the people carry some very revered memories of the monarchy, something which the Maoist have to contend with, but are determined to efface. They therefore see the Nepal Army as a vestige of the monarchy, which must be radically altered in the colour of ‘Red’ and on the lines of the PLA of China.

It is with this objective that the Maoist leadership is insisting on absorption of their armed cadres into the Nepal Army and has objected to routine recruitments by the Army. They recently tried to deny extension to the eight Brigadier Generals against the established convention. Unfortunately, the Maoists do not have the numbers to bulldoze their agendas in the Constituent Assembly, but are nevertheless moving incrementally with a clear purpose. Interestingly and much to the discomfiture to the Maoist leadership, the Madhesh Liberation Tigers (MLT), during its negotiations with the government, demanded that its 10,000 armed cadres should be treated like the Maoist armed cadres, who are enjoying the facilities provided by the state and should be absorbed in the Nepal Army.

Ever since, the Maoists have taken over the mantle of governance they have been losing political ground and popularity due to increasing instability in the country. Even amongst the supporters, I did not find any reverence for the Maoist leadership. In some parts of the Terai region, the mere mention of the names of Maoist leaders invites peoples’ wrath. The Maoist leaders do realize that they cannot override the rising Madheshi sentiments, therefore they have adopted different tactics. They are trying to drive a wedge in the Madheshi ranks by instigating ethnic groups like Tharus and Muslims to demand ‘special identities and privileges’. The recent Tharu and Muslim agitation is believed to have been engineered by them. It is also alleged that they are floating Madheshi organizations under different names and secretly imposing their leadership in Madheshi avatars. There are insinuations that two former Maoist leaders, Upendra Yadav (Foreign Minister) and Maitrika Yadav, now heading Madheshi organizations, remain fundamentally Maoists. That these two leaders have so far strongly supported all controversial decisions lends credibility to the suspicion. For the Maoists, the foreign minister portfolio is most critical and it is intriguing that it should have been given to a political rival.

The decision of the government led by Maoists to increase the salary of the MPs (601 in the Constituent Assembly) from 14,000 to 50,000 has not gone down well with the people. Most people find the tax regime in Nepal oppressive. With regard to vehicles, the yearly tax slab is Rs 1,800 for 100 CC motorcycles, Rs 3,600 for 150 CC motorcycles, Rs 15,000 for 1500 CC cars, and Rs 50,000 for cars above 1,500 CC. Under the Maoist government, the state-run schools are hardly functional due to various reasons, and people are seeking recourse to private institutions. There are some 9,000 private schools in 56 districts of Nepal. Each of these schools has a minimum of 20 employees. A five percent tax has been levied on students studying in private schools. As it is private schools are paying 25 percent income tax, 1.5 percent tax for rural education development programme, 10 percent building tax, even if the school is being run from own premises. The Maoist leader Babu Ram Bhattarai had recently threatened to close all private schools. Exasperated the Private School Association threatened to close the schools from the very next day.

While I was in Nepal, the Students’ Union Elections were being held throughout the country. A lot of significance was being attached to it so as to gauge the following of the Maoists amongst the youth. With 48 seats, the Student Wing of the Maoists ANNISU (R) were placed third after ANNFSU (student wing of UML) and NSU (student wing of Nepali Congress) with 86 and 61 seats respectively. The Maoists had placed a lot of premium on the elections and provided substantial funds to their student wing.

The Maoists do not seem to be perturbed over their waning popularity, since they have armed muscle. The peace pact and the democratic process, they consider, as just another halt or a stepping stone in their journey to a Maoist state. They are very well utilizing the present opportunity to bolster their armed might and infiltrating key institutions of governance. Before they entered the peace process, they carried out frantic recruitment of new cadres in their armed wing, which they insist on calling the PLA. During the peace process, they took the position that their PLA has 30,000 cadres. The UN Monitoring Committee reckoned it at 18,000. These cadres organized in special camps under the UN supervision continue to be trained. It is widely believed that some of hard core cadres and the most potent weapons remained outside to be used when required. In addition, the Maoists have raised the ‘Youth Communist League’ (YCL) with the membership of one lakh as claimed. They are being liberally armed and financed by the Maoist leadership, now running the government. It may be mentioned that the YCL cadres took out a protest march against the Supreme Court’s stay on the defence minister’s decision of not granting extension to eight Brigadier Generals. It may be mentioned that the defence minister Badal was the head of the armed wing of Maoists before joining the government.

As per some key sources, the Maoists are preparing for an eventuality of an armed show down with the assistance of China, in case they are politically overwhelmed by opposing forces. Maoists have also indicated to certain quarters I interacted with that in the event of being voted out in the Constituent Assembly, they would quickly seize power by force.

India Factor

The people in the Terai nurture a deep grievance that their pro-India orientation has been overlooked and subverted not only by Nepal, but India as well. They pointed out that without a liberal and open border regime, their very survival will be at stake. They asserted that for everything right from sustenance to good future for their children they have nowhere to look, but India. Even the hill people, who have the means are hedging their chances by acquiring properties in India. There are numerous advertisements in Nepalese newspapers regarding sale of flats in Delhi. As per report, more than 150 Gurkhas of the British Army have bought properties in Gurgaon.

The complementarities between Nepal’s Terai and India were accentuated during the recent road block by the Tharu community, when people travelling from Birganj to Janakpur, two important towns of Terai, had to do so through the Indian territory. They also brought out the impact of happenings and internal administrative measures by the contiguous states on Nepal’s Terai. For example, they cited that many criminals and anti-social elements have crossed into the Nepal’s Terai region after tightening of law and order machinery by the Nitish Kumar government in Bihar. They therefore warned that a Maoist takeover of Nepal will have deep ramifications in India.

A few other examples can be given with regard to the complementarities. The BP Koirala Institute of Medical Science at Dharan, established with Indian assistance has more than 70 percent patients from Bihar. There are also eye hospitals in the Terai at Lahan (established with German assistance), Janakpur, Birganj, Bhairawah and Getta. Again, 70 percent of patients in these eye hospitals are from the Indian side. The Indian patients find it very convenient and economical as treatment fees is fixed and there is no fleecing or hidden costs involved. The fixed rate for a cataract operation is Rs 1,000/-. A senior functionary of the National Academy of Medical Sciences proposed that the same model be replicated with regard to dental hospitals. In that India should assist in establishing dental hospitals at Jaleshwar, far-western Nepal, mid-western Nepal and eastern Nepal. Some of these hospitals will benefit India as well. It may be mentioned here that Nepal is ahead of India in anti-blindness programmes, Vitamin-A programmes, Polio eradication, mother and child health programmes, and oral health programmes (in Asia, only Thailand is ahead of Nepal).

The people of Nepal are very impressed with India’s economic growth and expect India to be more magnanimous in view of its burgeoning economy. I told the some Nepalese leaders in the government that without doubt Nepal is a sovereign country, but Delhi-Kathmandu state-to-state relations paradigm is detrimental to the development and well-being of Nepal. The geographical truism is that Nepal has borders with Sikkim, West Bengal, Bihar, UP, and Uttrakhand, some of which are presently not the best performing states of India. Development of Nepal can only take place if the complementarities of these Indian states with Nepal are taken into consideration by both the countries. There is a pressing imperative that the Chief Ministers of bordering Indian states are included in the decision-making loop with regard to the relations between the two countries and development activities undertaken in Nepal with Indian assistance.

Most people in Nepal, (lesser extent Terai), are unaware about India’s security sensivities like externally sponsored terrorism and activities of the country’s belligerent to India like Pakistan and China. Mired in their own problems, they tend to overlook the fact that India has direct security interface with five other neighbors. In fact, there is a propensity amongst some policy-makers to indulge in India-bashing, whenever they interact with other SAARC members. This propensity is exploited by powers inimical to India. Many leading politicians were candid enough to tell me that to be counted in Nepal’s politics, India-bashing is a compulsion, even as they fully realize that India has been more than indulgent, benign and generous towards Nepal all through. There are others, who accuse India of suffering from big-brother syndrome. They portray the Indian embassy in Nepal as a state within Nepal. There is a tendency to blame the Indian embassy and the RA&W for all the shortcomings of Nepal. This constituency in Nepal completely ignores the fact that given the unique nature of India–Nepal geopolitical interface, a modicum of reciprocities is expected from Nepal. They are sensitive about their concept of ‘sovereignty’ to ridiculous extents. They chased away the Indian technicians working on the hydro-electric project on the River Karnali on the plea of preserving Nepal’s sovereignty. They have done the same at other places as well. They also chased away Indian engineers and workers, who had gone to Nepal for repair of the embankment of the Kosi River. Nepal after Brazil has the highest potential for hydro-electric power, yet most of Nepal is today suffering from daily power-cuts of 18 hours.

An Indian pilot, who has flown extensively in the domestic circuit of Nepal observed that most of the airfields in Nepal have been constructed with the Indian assistance, and the plaques mentioning the same has deliberately been allowed to deteriorate and are obscured by wild grass.

The Nepal government has been selling the argument to its people that electricity shortages are due to disruption of 500 MW of power supply from India. It does not realize that India is a precarious power-deficient state and can ill afford to persist with the arrangement indefinitely.

About one thousand crore rupees is disbursed by India as pension for Gurkha ex-servicemen yearly by the Indian Pension Establishment in Nepal. The officers and the staff of the establishment travel to remote areas, but their movement has never been disrupted even during the peak of the Maoist insurgency. It is intriguing that many Gurkha ex-servicemen also get afflicted by ‘sovereignty’ and ‘anti-India’ syndrome. Same is the case with regard to recruitment of the Gurkhas of Nepal in the Indian Army. I attended a recruitment rally at Pokhra. In the preceding two years, the Maoists had created hurdles in holding recruitment rallies, again citing ‘sovereignty’. These elements were conveyed that it was not India’s problem but Nepal’s, as India has enough voluntary aspirants for the Indian Army. After the reality sunk in, and under public pressure the Maoist leadership had no choice, but to finally yield.

Much of the Indian assistance to Nepal is not only taken for granted, but misused as well. As per a functionary of the Indian Consulate at Birganj, India had recently gifted some ambulances to Nepal, and a few months down the line, he said that he was horrified to see them being run a taxies.

China Factor

Some of very important non-Maoist ministers in the present government, conveyed their alarm in the abnormal increase in the number of visits by Chinese delegations to Nepal. There have been 28 official delegations from China to Nepal ever since the Maoists have come to power. It was pointed out that in the last four months, there have been nine Chinese delegations and only four Indian. As per sources in Nepal’s Army, the number of unofficial Chinese delegations is even more. The non-Maoist ministers revealed that the current Nepalese dispensation and China are moving very fast on realization of the extension of Tibet Railway to Kathmandu. In fact, recently, the Nepal government has officially requested China in this regard. These leaders were of the opinion that if the preliminary work was to begin on the project, it would be impossible to thwart it, as public opinion would go against India. They therefore, proposed that India should immediately take cogent action towards extension of railway from India to Kathmandu and beyond upto the Chinese border.

A large number of Nepalese students are being lured by China to avail technical education facilities especially created for them. These are basically those students, who fail to enter engineering and medical institutions in Nepal or India. It may be mentioned that Nepal with a population of 2.5 crores has 14 medical colleges. The Chinese have a very blasé attitude towards the fulfillment of academic and professional aspirations of the Nepalese students. The objective is not education, but to subvert these students and further Chinese influence. Extensive visits to the prosperous parts of China forms part of the curriculum. These institutions are very poorly equipped. For most practical classes, video tapes are shown. The standard of students graduating from the medical institutes is so poor that the Nepal Medical Association has begun to conduct exam for certification and practice in Nepal. Members of the Nepal Medical Association, who visited China told me that the institutions in China catering exclusively to Chinese students are much superior, rather state-of-art.

Since such exams by the Medical Association cannot be confined to Chinese graduates, others including Indian and Nepal graduates have also been brought in the ambit. Very recently, some 600 graduates appeared for licensing exam of which only 40 percent qualified and most failures were graduates from China.

The stranglehold of China on the Maoist leaders was quite evident when it prevailed over Prachanda to decline invitation to participate in the recently held India Today Conclave. Not only the Maoist leaders, but also the Madheshi leaders like Upendra Yadav and Maitrika Yadav are also considered extremely close to China, and indirectly and secretly supporting China in furtherance of its agendas in Nepal. Maitrika Yadav has just returned from his visit to China.The recent statement by the Chinese Ambassador in Nepal to the effect that China will not allow Nepal’s sovereignty to be interfered with is significant and unequivocally demonstrates the Chinese resolve to wean Nepal from its special relationship with India.

The evolving contours between Nepal and China under the Maoist dispensation is best signified by a huge hoarding of Chinese tourism just outside the Kathmandu airport. It reads ‘Welcome to Nepal, the Gateway to China’.

Marginalization of the Army

The Maoists have been consistently humiliating the Nepal Army. In fact, they have been treating the army as an enemy force. They feel that the Nepal Army is the only institution, which can challenge their armed might. They have been raising hue and cry over recruitment by the army to fulfill vacancies, which occur routinely on account of retirement and other reasons. The present Army Chief General Rookmangad Katawal has been fighting a lonely battle against the government headed by the Maoists, and the defence minister is a one time foe being the head of armed wing of the Maoists. The Army Chief earlier enjoyed a very high protocol status under the monarchy and was entitled to state sendoffs and receptions. The Maoists have ensured that today he is no one. Nevertheless, General Katawal, who was the adopted child of King Mahendra, is a powerful personality and the only one in the army hierarchy, who can protect the Nepal Army from subversion and marginalization attempts of the Maoists. Unfortunately, he is to retire in June.

During my visit to Nepal, the Maoist insistence of absorption of its armed cadres into the Nepal Army was a hotly debated issue, and then during my stay, another extremely contentious issue regarding the extension of eight Brigadier Generals came up. These Brigadier Generals are Pradeep Bikram Rana, Pawan Bahadur Pandey, Kumar Budhathoki, Narendra Bahadur Rawal, Raju Pratap K C, Ramesh Bista, Nara Bahadur Kandel and Shiva Poudel. It has been an unbroken tradition in the Army to grant three years extension to a Brigadier General and as such is provided in the Army Act as well. Some of these officers are considered to be highly qualified and experienced, having done their courses in India and some other western countries. It may be mentioned that the expansion of the Nepal Army from 50,000 personnel to the present strength of about 90,000 personnel took place in the later stages of Maoist insurgency and therefore, 70 percent of the personnel are below seven years of service.

When Mr GP Koirala was the Prime Minister, who also had the defence portfolio in the interim government, was persuaded by General Katawal  not to delegate powers of deciding on the issues pertaining to the army to the cabinet, as he was apprehensive that the Maoists leadership would further its agenda of destroying the institution of the Nepal Army. Unfortunately, it was this very provision that Badal, as the defence minister, used to deny extension to the Brigadier Generals. This move of Badal was meant to send strong signals within the army ranks that for future career prospects, the Nepal Army officers had to depend on the largesse of the Maoist leadership. The move was opposed by other political parties including the UML. The President appeared to be constitutionally helpless under the circumstances, and to make matters worse, none of the political parties, who had opposed the move, approached him to remonstrate. It would have certainly been lapped up by the media and strong signals would have been sent to the Maoist leadership. Fortunately, a few days later, the Supreme Court put a stay order on the retirement of the concerned Brigadier Generals.

When prominent members of the cabinet and opposition leaders asked for my opinion on the issue of absorption of Maoist cadres into the Nepal Army, I gave the example of the Indian National Army officers and men, who were not reabsorbed into the Indian Army despite stiff pressures from the political class on the Army Chief General Cariappa. I said that any army, which has any kind of ideological stream, ceases to be an impartial and effective force. I also quoted the examples of two distinguished Indian Generals, General Thimayya and General Bhagat, who as young officers had offered Mahatama Gandhi their services in the freedom movement after quitting the British Indian Army. Mahatama Gandhi was sagacious to advice them that they must remain in service and serve loyally as their services and experience would be critical to post-independence India. I reminded them that the Bangladesh Army could never become a non-partisan and apolitical force because of the two streams that emerged in the army after creation of the country, i.e. the freedom fighter lobby and the repatriated lobby. I also asked concerned authorities in the present dispensation, what would happen in Nepal if there were to be a rebellion by the police? Who will quell it if the ultimate institution ‘Army’ is humiliated and in disarray? I said that if the army ceases to be an effective institution, Nepal will quickly degenerate into anarchy. I cited the recent quelling of revolt in the BDR by the Bangladesh Army. One politician expressed that in Nepal the people feel that the army has never been employed for any purpose and therefore has little regard for them. I then gave the example of Sri Lanka, which had a ceremonial armed force of 18,000 personnel in the 70s, but circumstances compelled it to increase its size to more than one lakh personnel and over the years have evolved into a formidable fighting machine, so no one knows what role the Nepal Army may have to perform in future. I further added that like the Indian Army, the Nepal Army could become a symbol of national integration and effective instrument of nation-building.

Future Scenarios

Based on my interactions with the general people, politicians, administrators and members of the government, I foresee three very unpleasant scenarios in the immediate future of Nepal, which most institutional players in Nepal concur.

Scenario-A: A total Maoist takeover of Nepal with the tacit support of China.

Scenario-B: An violent clash between the Maoists versus the rest. The latter will include all other political forces and the army as well. As per my inputs, the Nepal Army is not inclined and united to interfere in the political happenings of the country, but if it continues to be humiliated and the situation in Nepal becomes untenable, they may well step-in to salvage the country from the brink of collapse.

Scenario-C: Split of Nepal into various entities.

Evolving Situation in Nepal : Implications for India

The impact and implications of the evolving political and security scenario in Nepal on India are:

• Advent of Maoist government has not ushered political stability in Nepal and for both India and Bhutan. Consequently the seven states of the NE region face renewed challenge to their stability and security. Coupled with this the Maoists can be expected to influence like minded groups in the 80 odd districts in the Red Corridor along our eastern sea board. PRC is already known for its intervention/interference in NE region
• Rise of this trend coincides with that of PRC influence in Nepal. Significantly the proposed treaty between Nepal and China will lead to unprecedented regional developments. In this the Tibet card will be effectively lost. PM Prachanda will perhaps make more concessions to PRC when he visits Beijing next. With the western bloc bending over backwards to please Beijing, Prachanda’s position will be alarming. Loss of Tibet card in Nepal for India will have incalculable effects on Delhi.
• Beijing’s growing assertiveness is exemplified in the manner of preventing Prachanda from participating in the India Today conclave citing the Dalai Lama’s presence. A number of countries have had to bite dust on this subject.
• With Nepal in its bag, Beijing’s next target will be Bhutan with whom it has a border problem. China has settled this issue with 12 out of 14 neighbours. Its next target of course will be assertion of claims on maritime boundaries that has witnessed increasing shrill in past couple of weeks.
• While Pakistan remains a source of major threat, the larger role of China cannot be viewed in isolation.
• The recent US DOD report on China is eloquent on Chinese threats.

Unity of Nepal is critical to India. A divided Nepal will usher in many other forces inimical to India. The gradual but determined imposition of their totalitarian ‘ism’ by the Maoists on the people of Nepal is percitibly turning Nepal into  a volatile state, even as history, relegious moorings and sociology of the nation is at severe odds with ultra-left philosophy, notwithstanding the limited success of the Maoists in the Constituent Assembly elections held under extraordinary circumstances. As it is, elections are temperamental affairs and the largest political bloc with armed muscle cannot be the sole arbiter of a nation-state during its rebirth. The Maoists cannot be allowed to hijack the country in the garb of democracy, in which they fundametally do not believe in. It is a foregone conclusion that the Maoists at no cost will ever be prepared to sit in the opposition, therefore the present democratic process for them is only an avenue towards establishment of a Maoist state.