Geopolitics

Nepal on the Brink of Red Takeover
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Issue Net Edition | Date : 12 Oct , 2017

Map courtesy: http://www.nepal.gov.np/

In a country that was not long ago a Hindu monarchy, reds of all shades have decided to converge and dissolve into one single entity. The CPN (UML), the CPN (Maoists) and the splinter group of Baburam Bhattarai have decided to merge and contest the provincial and the federal elections as one single communist bloc. This is the final push for Communist takeover of Nepal and was not unexpected.  Struck by this bolt, the Nepalese Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba and his Congress party have been reduced to the puniest political force. Nepal as such seems to be wailing because of the’ RED’ uncertainty.

This expected union happened too soon, the impetus being China. The desperation on the part of Chinese dispensation, this author has learnt, was linked to the India’s tough and uncompromising position during the Doklam faceoff. India’s posturing on Doklam had two stern messages: one, that India will not brook with its critical strategic and territorial interests; and two, that it will not abandon its immediate strategic periphery in defence of its soverignity, however haughty the adversary might be. Therefore the question of abandoning Bhutan does not arise.

The desperation on the part of Chinese dispensation, … was linked to the India’s tough and uncompromising position during the Doklam faceoff.

The Indian strategic posturing, to which Bhutan is intrinsic, unnerved the Chinese dispensation. It construed it as a direct Indian challenge to China’s strategic thrust by way of the ‘Belt Road Initiative’ (BRI) in South Asia. The OBOR or the BRI is the political artery for survival of Xi Jinping. This author has been of the steadfast belief that the Doklam maneuver by China was essentially in the pursuit of China-Bangladesh Economic Corridor(CBEC), which  also in the same geopolitical vain can be characterized as China- Chumbi- Chittagong corridor i.e. from the high mountains of Tibet to the waters of the Bay of Bengal. For China and without doubt Bangladesh as well, what stands in the way is 25 km of India’s Silliguri Corridor. To penetrate this corridor all sorts of devious ways are being adopted by China. Fortunately for India, patriots have prevailed over those Indians who intellectually and materially are enslaved by China. This anti-nationals and pro-China segment in Nepal is as huge as in India. Whatever be the shade of communist groups/ parties, the puppeteer is China. The various shades are in fact crucial for creating confusion through diffusion, distraction, deniability and survival.

Bangladesh, it needs to be emphasized is signatory to China’s Belt Road Initiative. Its keenness to join the said Chinese initiative is reflected in the recent statement of the Foreign Secretary of Bangladesh Shahidul Haque during his visit to India. He said: ‘’ Countries should not become isolated in the name of sovereignty.’’ This was an innuendo on the Indian position against the OBOR or BRI. It may be reiterated that Bangladesh is a signatory to BRI. Further, Shahidul Haque also said:’’ Economic issues now dictate how much sovereignty one should exert.’’ Xi Jinping visited Bangladesh in Oct 2016. The two countries decided to undertake 28 projects wherein China pledged to infuse $ 21.5 bn. Several MOU were signed under OBOR initiative including maritime cooperation and joint feasibility study on free trade zone. Significantly, Beijing described the visit as a ‘’ milestone’’ and said President XI would push forward cooperation within the framework of OBOR.

Whatever be the shade of communist groups/ parties, the puppeteer is China. The various shades are in fact crucial for creating confusion through diffusion, distraction, deniability and survival.

India has also been questioning the legitimacy of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) as it passes through the PoK, an Indian territory. This illegitimacy has been endorsed by the Trump administration as well. Only two days ago US Defence Secretary James Mattis told the Senate Armed Forces Committee: ‘’ The One Belt and One Road also goes through disputed territory, and I think that in itself shows the vulnerability of trying that sort of a dictate.’’

China therefore deems that India is putting the proverbial spanner in the works of OBOR or BRI in South Asia, a critical region of the project.  The Chinese dispensation is acutely apprehensive that given the rise of India’s strategic stock post Doklam, Nepal like Bhutan may slip away from the OBOR project. China has therefore decided to activate all leverages in Nepal to ensure that in the coming elections its different communist cronies combine and capture political power to do its bidding.

The coming together of all the communist streams in Nepal and India as well, constitutes the final assault, something that this author has been warning about. The imminent scenario of combined assault for Red takeover of Nepal was discussed by this author in his book’ The Unmaking of Nepal.’’ The Chinese are ruthless and cunning in wielding the communist machine in target countries in pursuit of their strategic objectives. Different streams are created to follow the parliamentary route, semi-parliamentary route and the underground route dedicated to violence. Internecine bickering and clashes notwithstanding, they actually complement each other. The cycle of convergence and divergence is dictated by exigencies of survival and opportunities for grabbing power.

China therefore deems that India is putting the proverbial spanner in the works of OBOR or BRI in South Asia. 

Indeed this phenomenon or script has outplayed itself faithfully in Nepal. Till 1990 there was but one communist entity in Nepal. Then they split. The CPN (UML) adopted the parliamentary route. The CPN (Maoist) took to jungle and began to wage war against the people in their own country, specially those who resisted their terror. 15 years hence they did not merge, but came together to make a bid for power. And now they have decided to merge. Between then and now, one or the communist party has been in power. Between them there have been five Prime Ministers i.e. Madhav Kumar Nepal, Jhalanath Khanal and KP Oli —all from CPN (UML); and Maoist leaders Prachanda and Baburam Bhattarai. This was even as consensus on a Constitution was elusive and continues to be acrimonious and far from settled. The cunning of the communists reached its nadir when the Maoists jettisoned the CPN (UML) government of KP Oli and formed government with help of Nepali Congress. Thus the Maoists who were rejected by the people in second Constituent Assembly elections of 2013, and were relegated to poor third position retained power through a different route.

The Maoists did allow the Nepali Congress to form the incumbent government as per prior arrangement, but that was mere tokenism to establish their democratic credibility. KP Oli government resigned because its position in public had become untenable because of poor handling of situation in aftermath of the earthquake in 2015. Now in hindsight it is clear that Bhattarai’s act of leaving the CPN (Maoist) , and forming a new party was to placate the Madhesis who had turned extremely hostile to communists of all shades because of motivated structure of federalism introduced in the Constitution, which put them at permanent political disadvantage vis-à-vis the Hill people.

The communists share all the attributes of jihadi groups. Both believe in destruction, both subscribe to terror, both are murderous, both reject the concept of nation-state and both have global agenda.

In all these years the two communist groups have subverted every organ of the State. The judiciary is now packed with communist judges.  Recently, 350 lawyers resigned from the bar association over appointment of 80 judges.

The communists share all the attributes of jihadi groups. Both believe in destruction, both subscribe to terror, both are murderous, both reject the concept of nation-state and both have global agenda.

The communists play their murderous games with great finesse, sometimes in the garb of Agnivesh, sometimes with the veneer of Lankesh, and sometimes in the role of teachers like Sunder and Sai.

It may be reiterated the Maoists came to power after killing their own people. China was an accomplice. Now when Nepal is on the verge of Red takeover or the Chinese takeover, where are the Indian pseudo intellectuals who gave respectability to the murderous Maoists, and brought the atheist jokers to power after killing the 300 year old institution of monarchy?

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The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or policies of the Indian Defence Review.

About the Author

RSN Singh

is a former military intelligence officer who later served in the Research and Analysis Wing, or R&AW and author of books Asian Strategic and Military Perspective and The Military Factor in Pakistan. His latest book is The Unmaking of Nepal.

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3 thoughts on “Nepal on the Brink of Red Takeover

  1. Chinse Communist Propaganda soon after 1959 was, Quote ” TIBET IS CHINA’S PALM.NEPAL,SIKKIM,LADAKH & the NEFA of ASSAM ARE THE FIVE FINGERS.NOW THAT THE PALM HAS BEEN RESTORED,THE FIVE FINGERS SHOULD GO WITH IT “,Unquote.So,it was a deep strategy China had been focusing upon – ever since.A lot of political & diplomatic blunders have been done -both by India & Nepal,in so far as,the Indo-Nepal relationship is concerned.Wonder,if the process can be reversed now !

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