Geopolitics

Lasting Peace a Distant Dream Unless We Change
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Issue Net Edition | Date : 31 Jan , 2021

Despite ongoing series of talks to resolve the contentious military standoff in Eastern Ladakh, the Chinese incursions and aggressiveness continues on the borders. Close at the heels of revelation of a construction of a village in the disputed territory in Upper Subansiri District of Arunachal Pradesh came the news of the forced Chinese incursion in area of Naku La in North Sikkim. All this at a time when there appears to be no positive development in resolving the ongoing standoff and the relations between the two nations are deteriorating by the day with chances of a confrontation  on the border appearing more likely soon after the snow melts. While the Dragon’s treachery continues unabated, India needs to prepare herself militarily, politically and diplomatically to halt the Chinese expansionism, a product of its Middle Kingdom Complex being pursued vigorously by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) under the garb of China Dream of its overambitious Paramount Leader Xi Jinping.

Ever since, the emergence of Communist China or the Peoples Republic of China (PRC), the Indian leadership beginning with Pandit Nehru desired to have friendly and cordial relations with China under the hope that it would contribute towards world peace, oppose colonialism and form the pillars of a Pan–Asian order. India was among the first few nations to establish diplomatic ties with the PRC on April 1, 1950. Pandit Nehru had introduced China for the first time at an international stage during the first ever multi-national Afro-Asian Conference at Bangdung in 1955. India was instrumental in getting China the permanent membership of the United Nations Security Council. Unfortunately, Nehru failed to read Mao’s mind which at its back was filled with Sino-centrism (ideology that China is the cultural, political or economic centre of the world) and Chinese Nationalism focussed on a modern powerful Chinese nation.

Mao’s ideology manifested in form of China emerging on the world scene as a “Revisionist” power aiming to change the existing status quo. It resulted in annexation of Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang and Tibet. Subsequently, India also became a victim of Chinese expansionism.

The Chinese greed showed no signs of subsiding. Apart from its adventurism in the South and East China Seas, it has been steadily extending its claim lines across Ladakh to include more and more Indian territories, while repudiating Indian sovereignty over Arunachal Pradesh. Of late, it has included Sikkim also in its growing lists of disputes with India. The stubborn posture adopted by China in the current standoff has proved beyond doubt that China considers India as its rival but will not tolerate any rival. It has therefore decided to put India in its place buoyed by its mighty Comprehensive National Power (CNP).

It has established beyond doubts its greed for expansionism and hegemony over its neighbours. India has decided to contest the Chinese revisionism and expansionism. It has refused to bow down to the machinations of Xi Jinping for which it has received considerable global support. India needs to strategize to exploit the Chinese vulnerabilities which are in plenty. The CCP is, however, very sensitive to the two “Ts” namely Taiwan and Tibet.

As a consequence of civil war in China the nation was divided into two parts in 1949 two years after India attained independence. Mao’s communist government retained control of the mainland China forcing the Republic of China (ROC) government to relocate to Taiwan. Since then, the ROC has continued to exercise effective jurisdiction over the main island of Taiwan and a number of outlying islands while communist China also known as Peoples’ Republic of China (PRC) continues to claim it as its part(23rd province). China’s official position on Taiwan is uncompromising. It claims that Taiwan is, was and always has been an inseparable part of China, and that international law supports China’s claim. CCP wants outright reunification, the sooner the better, seeing the recovery of the island as the final chapter in the civil war and end of past humiliations when China was forced to cede territory to foreigners.

On the other hand, there is a growing global support for Taiwan as it is viewed as a victim of growing Chinese expansionism that wants to impose the communist ideology on a democratic nation. China at the same time threatens that “Taiwan shall not be referred to as a ‘country’ (‘nation’) or “Republic of China” or the leader of the China’s Taiwan region as “President”, so as not to send wrong signals.” The Chinese sensitivity to Taiwan is growing by the day and CCP considers cosiness to Taiwan by any other country as a direct assault on its sovereignty.

The other Achilles Heel of CCP is Tibet, the region that shares border with India and has had historic ties with India since centuries.With the end of the Chinese Civil War, the newly-established communist regime, openly stated its intention of ‘liberating’ Tibet, but the Indian establishment paid no heed.

To maintain control over Tibet, the PLA entered Tibet on October 7, 1950 and subsequently annexed it, thus eliminating the traditional buffer between India and China. India displayed utter lack of strategic thinking by dismissing Tibetan pleas for help and instead insisting on Tibetans to settle the issue peacefully with China. Nehru was too enamoured with his image of Shanti Doot (messiah of peace) and “Hindi Chini Bhai-Bhai’’ façade and committed a big  folly in 1954, when, under the Panchsheel Agreement, we surrendered in Tibet all our military and other facilities, to China.  Chinese responded with attacking an Assam Rifles outpost in Longju in the Central Frontier of erstwhile North East Frontier Agency(now Arunachal Pradesh) and building a road through Indian Territory of Aksai Chin in Ladakh. Nehru still did not realise the gravity of the situation till China backstabbed India in 1962.

It is worth to remind the readers that at the time of independence in 1947, India did not share a common boundary with China in the north, but with two hitherto independent nations –– Sinkiang (present day Xinjiang) and Tibet.  Northern border was considered settled in accordance with the Shimla Convention of 1914 with the Tibetan nation being a signatory to the convention. The Shimla Convention defined the boundaries between Tibet and China proper, and that between Tibet and British India (the latter came to be known as the McMahon Line). The boundary between Jammu & Kashmir (which merged with India in October 1947) and Tibet was established vide Treaty of Chushul signed in 1842 and between Sikkim (which merged with India in 1975) and Tibet was agreed under the Anglo-Chinese Convention 1890 and physically demarcated in 1895. Had Tibet not been forcibly annexed by PRC there would have been no boundary dispute on our northern borders.

The PRC on assuming power renounced all earlier foreign agreements as unequal treatises imposed on it during the ‘century of humiliation’ and demanded renegotiation of all borders.

Chinese obsession with Tibet stems from many reasons, one of them being to fulfil Mao’s revisionist dream of Five Fingers. Mao believes Tibet to be China’sRight hand palm with Ladakh, Nepal, Sikkim, Bhutan and Arunachal Pradesh to be its five fingers which also need to be liberated contrary to the Indian claim as mentioned above.

Tibet is China’s fundamental vulnerability viz a viz India and a mechanism available to the later to refrain China. India made a cardinal mistake of accepting Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) as part of China thus permitting China to share border with India. China time and again defied India’s hopes of a peaceful co-existence through its acts of treachery by showing scant respect to mutual treaties and international conventions.

Time has come to junk the One Nation policy of China by paying it back in the same coin. India needs to consider to derecognise Tibet as part of China and recognise Taiwan as an independent nation. To begin with India needs to enhance commerce and cultural relations with Taiwan and increase military cooperation.

To ensure Hans supremacy CCP has been subjecting the other ethnic minorities to suppression and subjugation. There is growing unrest in Tibet and Xinjiang against increased Chinese atrocities. China also plans to change the population along the Sino-Indian border through establishment of the Hans populated villages. To counter it India should take off the gloves and give up its timid Tibet policy.India should assist the Tibetan resistance movement within Tibet and give free hand to the Dalai Lama and his government to espouse the Tibetan freedom cause from Indian soil. It should also draw international attention to increased human right violations inside Tibet comparable to the atrocities being committed on Uighur Muslims.

In all fairness, the mistake committed by India during the regime of NDA-1 under Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 2013 should be corrected by Narendra Modi led NDA-2 in 2021 before it is too late. India should shed all apprehensions and play its trump card – Tibet, against China.

While Taiwan and Tibet should form two main pillars of India’s strategic response to Dragon’s treachery, Xinjiang, Hong Kong and Inner Mongolia should also remain on its radar.Tibet and Xinjiang are China’s two largest provinces. Without them, the total land area of China would be reduced by over 30%.

India should also invest heavily in improving and maintaining good relations with peripheral nations of South China Sea as well as the nations in Indo-Pacific region. Strengthening Quad into an alliance has become a strategic necessity to checkmate growing Chinese belligerence and Xi Jinping’s bloated ego and ambition to become world’s most powerful leader.

Thus, our strategic response to treacherous dragon has to be two pronged in case we desire lasting peace with China. In keeping with the maxim, “If you want peace be prepared for war,” a strong military to defend ourselves, and ready to impose heavy costs on the PLA in the event of military adventurism is the foremost change needed coupled with a political will to be pro-active to exploit Chinese vulnerabilities and let China respond to our moves rather than the other way round.

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The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or policies of the Indian Defence Review.

About the Author

Brig Anil Gupta

is Jammu-based political commentator, security and strategic analyst. 

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9 thoughts on “Lasting Peace a Distant Dream Unless We Change

  1. Retired Army officers ( Brig. Gupta ) CRYING over spilled milk ( COWARDLY India during both Congress and BJP led Govt.s letting China invade & OCCUPY Tibet & then accepting it as legitimate in the subsequent decades in the VAIN HOPE of APPEASING THE ALL DEVOURING CHINESE ) will NOT help ! What is needed instead is an INTELLIGENT PLAN to EXPOSE China as a LYING AGGRESSOR that factors in the inevitable Chinese RETALIATION.

    China is sure to RETALIATE if India now trots out the DALAI LAMA in Dharamsala to the world stage after muzzling the now 85 year old His Holiness for 60 years. By itself India is still too WEAK & VULNERABLE to provoke China as the RETIRED Brig. rather recklessly suggests. After all he himself won’t have to fight anymore !

    It is the Foolish & Greedy US that is responsible for making Communist China so strong in the 3 decades since the CCP carried out the Tian An Men Sq. MASSACRE. By FREE transfer of technology ( via US Corp.s & Univ. Outsourcing US manufacturing to China, giving away at least $350 billion a year as Trade Surplus to China for the last quarter century giving them enough Capital to develop both their Civilian & Military sectors.

    A series of US Presidents starting w/ Bush I had been deliberately misled re: China’s true intentions by none other than the old unpunished War Criminal Henry Kissinger ( remember his role during the Bangladesh War ? ) who has been a PAID AGENT for the Red Emperors of Beijing for over 40 years. It did n’t help either that US Presidents from Bush I to Biden has all had their hands in the till, their Families had been using their Family connection to make easy money in China. And China has of course greased the skids in order to compromise the US political leadership.

    Before country bumpkins in India, uninformed as they seem to be of the bigger picture worldwide, foolishly dream of taking on China all by themselves, the Govt. of India must urgently hold high level meetings w/ the new Biden Admin.

    • ‘It is the Foolish & Greedy US that is responsible for making Communist China so strong in the 3 decades since the CCP carried out the Tian An Men Sq. MASSACRE’

      This is a serious misconception that has to be rectified because it is causing major policy mistakes by New Delhi. Beijing’s success is due to the adoption of the East Asian Development Model that was pioneered by the Japanese and later picked up by South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore, as well as the PRC. For details, see the third part of my paper:

      Kitson, Douglas, and the East Asian Solution
      https://www.socred.org/s-c-action/social-credit-views/kitson-douglas-and-the-east-asian-solution

      The role of foreign investment in the rise of China was distinctly secondary: after all, Latin America has been receiving major American investment for much longer – but its economic performance pales in comparison to East Asia’s.

      • “‘It is the Foolish & Greedy US that is responsible for making Communist China so strong in the 3 decades since the CCP carried out the Tian An Men Sq. MASSACRE’” is a correct description of what has happened. The aid given to Africa and Latin America was abused by corrupt politicians. The aid given to Japan, Europe and China was used sensibly. China is a Frankenstein created by US and the West . They are suffering because of the greed of few politicians, bureaucrats and businessmen and rest of the people are paying for their folly.

        • The claim that corruption is responsible for underdevelopment is simply laughable. Do you think corruption does not exist in Japan, China or indeed, Europe? Or that Africans and Latin Americans are so morally inferior that they squander all the opportunities for development for personal gain?

          Hard though it may be for Indians to admit, China was not created by the West: China was created by the Chinese, thanks to superior policies. We would do well to understand such policies instead of clinging to childish arguments like corruption and foreign aid.

  2. A very well articulated view of action required to be taken by India. At the forefront of this approach has to be the MEA. Till there’s is unfounded hesitation in South Block, the action on the lines laid out in the article will remain a dream.

  3. Beijing does not respect a country that prefers to talk rather than act.

    The author is correct that we should recognize Taiwan, even if that entails a complete rupture in relations with the PRC. However, strengthening our ties with the Quad may well backfire, as Beijing will use its leverage over Washington and Canberra to put pressure on New Delhi.

    The number one policy for any Indian government that wants to ensure its own security is attacking, defeating and destroying Pakistan – so as to secure our own hegemony in our own backyard. Until and unless we do that, we will always be operating on the international scene at a major disadvantage.

    Officially declaring Pakistan a terrorist state, renouncing the Indus Waters Treaty and severing diplomatic, trade and transport ties with Islamabad are the first steps towards that objective. We have not yet taken them.

    Instead, our government just talks. No wonders the Chinese are contemptuous.

  4. As expected, a very good in detail article on this sensitive isssue. All relevant aspects have been touched in brief. As per our DM’s statement in parliament in Sep 2020, a total of 38,ooo square km is under illegal Chinese occupation, and the trend is continuing unabated if I say so. As mentioned in the article, it is dead sure that some new invasion(s) is/are going to happens the moment the weather improves. For last seventy odd years (a resaonable time period) we did nothing but either ignored their follies, or just felt helpless and made comments about their ill designs to occupy our territory, but no positive mil/ economic/ diplomatic action initiated to check them in their boots. The formula should have been, once bitten, twice shy; after their first betrayal we should have changed track, but alas we failed there too. Seems like we have no Tibet policy or else we are too laid back to renew and reinvigorate it to dispense equal pain to their yearly incursions unabated. As marked clearly in the article, we have many available handles like, HK, Taiwan, Tibet, HH the Dalai Lama……… start making right moves quickly to check this seemingly uncontrolled monster or else we will have no face to boast our valour on the intl platform. Hope the political leadership is able to take some tough decisions immediately and simultaneously increase the Def budget to match the mil requirements.

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