Indian Defence Review

 As part of its space diplomacy and “Look East” policy, Indian political leadership may not be averse to the idea of making available services of India’s home grown satellite information and positioning system IRNSS (Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System) which has both commercial and strategic potentials. Five satellites of the seven spacecraft IRNSS constellation are already in service. Being a dual use system, a satellite navigation constellation can be harnessed for both civilian and military uses. 

China, which has made it amply clear that its absolute sovereignty over the resources of the strategically located South China Sea is not open to compromise, has every reason to get perturbed over the Indian sponsored plan to set up a satellite monitoring station along with a satellite data reception centre in Ho Chi Minh city of Vietnam. For this high tech facility, meant to facilitate the application of space technology for a variety of civilian uses, could also give its arch enemy, Vietnam, a head start in tracking “events and developments” of strategic importance in the areas of interest including China and South China Sea on a sustained basis. For the data received from high performance, high resolution earth observation satellites in IRS (Indian Remote Sensing Satellite) constellation being operated by Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) could prove crucial for Vietnam in responding to the Chinese sabre rattling in the disputed South China Sea.

Incidentally, earth observation satellites meant for civilian uses can also be harnessed for surveillance and reconnaissance by the defence forces. For remote sensing and surveillance are considered two faces of the same coin. “In military terms, this move could be quite significant. It looks like a win-win for both sides, filling significant holes for the Vietnamese and expanding the range for the Indians” says Collin Koh, a marine security expert at S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.

The possibility of Vietnam using data from India’s radar imaging satellite, RISAT -1, to monitor the naval movements in South China Sea could be a matter of concern for China. There is no denying the point that data from an active, microwave imaging satellite capable of operating on round the clock basis, even under extremes of atmospheric and environmental conditions, could help Vietnam enhance its situational awareness in the volatile South China Sea region. Of course, ISRO describes RISAT-1 as a civilian space platform meant to enhance India’s earth observation capability with special reference to floods, landslides, cyclones and disaster management. As it is, RISAT-1 data in tandem with the data from the Indian ocean watch satellite, Oceansat-II, could help Vietnam obtain a fairly good picture of the developments in South China sea in a dynamic mode. A the end of the day, for Vietnam, a heightened situational awareness in the turbulent South China Sea would prove to be a veritabl” game changer”

Interestingly, Department of Space (DOS) Annual Report for 2014-15 makes a reference to the plan for the setting up of a satellite data reception centre in Vietnam. It says, ”India is actively pursuing a proposal with ASEAN comprising Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Singapore, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam to establish a ground station in Vietnam to receive, process and use data from Indian satellites for a variety of applications including disaster management and support and also to provide training in space science, technology and applications.” As part of its international cooperation programme, ISRO has offered to share is experience in utilizing the space technology for socio economic development with ASEAN countries which are also prone to natural disasters.

With as many as ten remote sensing spcecraft in service, ISRO operates one of the largest constellations of earth observation satellites in the world. These satellites carry a range of instruments that offer data in wide ranging spatial, spectral and temporal resolutions to cater to varied requirements. The data from these satellites find application in areas including resources management, environmental monitoring, disaster warning, weather prediction and urban planning as well as infrastructure development.

ISRO will build the satellite tracking and satellite data reception facility at Ho Chi Min with the funds to be made available by the Indian Government. As things stand now, there is no clarity as to when the facility will be commissioned. India’s current satellite tracking network – outside the country – comprises ground stations, at Brunei, Blak in Indonesia and Mauritius. These facilities help ISRO track and monitor the Indian satellites launched from Sriharikota spaceport on India’s eastern coast. And the upcoming Vietnamese facility will further enhance the Indian capability for post launch tracking and monitoring of satellites.

In fact, the Chinese political leadership in Beijing views the plan for Indian sponsored space facility in Ho Chi Min city as a ”clear cut attempt to stir up trouble in the disputed South China Sea”. A report appearing in the state controlled English language newspaper, Global Times, quoting a Chinese social science researcher, noted that the satellite ground facility at Ho Chi Min city is an “indication of the attempt by New Delhi to complicate the regional dispute”. As it is, the Global Times report captioned, “Countries outside region play up test flights in South China Sea” quoted GuXiaosong, a researcher at the Guangxi Academy of Social Sciences at Nanning, as saying “India has no territorial dispute with China in the South China Sea. It wants to stir up trouble in the region to serve its own ends, which is to counter balance the Chinese influence.”

As part of its space diplomacy and “Look East” policy, Indian political leadership may not be averse to the idea of making available services of India’s home grown satellite information and positioning system IRNSS (Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System) which has both commercial and strategic potentials. Five satellites of the seven spacecraft IRNSS constellation are already in service. Being a dual use system, a satellite navigation constellation can be harnessed for both civilian and military uses. The civilian uses of IRNSS include supporting mobile communications services, enhancing the efficiency and safety of transport sector including aircraft, ships and vehicles on the road, mapping, surveying, road alignment calculation, mining and power generation sectors as well as precision farming.

For the defence forces, a satellite navigation system is an ideal device for position location, guiding military patrols in unfamiliar territory and identifying vital targets of the adversaries. Indeed, an uninterrupted access to satellite navigation capability has become indispensable for the aircraft, warships and ground forces to get a head start in the battlefield. As it is, during India’s 1999 Kargil conflict with Pakistan, Indian patrols operating in the rugged and difficult to negotiate terrain along the line of control initially strayed into enemy held territory with disastrous consequences. However the availability of devices to access navigation services proved to be invaluable for the special forces and crack teams engaged in identifying targets and destroying enemy installations.

For obvious reasons, Vietnam has strengthened its ties with India with a particular focus on trade and defence. Incidentally, way back in 1979 China and Vietnam had fought a brief but bloody border war. In order to deter China from once again unleashing a blitzkrieg, Vietnam has expressed its keenness to buy BrahMos Supersonic cruise missile, described as the ultimate weapon from the New Delhi based Indo Russian joint venture BrahMos Aerospace. But then the sale of BrahMos to Vietnam would need to be cleared by Russia which, as things stand now, may not like to offend Beijing on account of geopolitical factors.

Vietnam has also found India to be a reliable trade partner. For instance, despite the Chinese threat, ONGC Videsh Ltd (OVL), the overseas arm of India’s state owned Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC), has decided not to exit Vietnamese oil block in South China Sea region. OVL has decided to seek a third extension of the exploration lease for Block 128 to sustain India’s strategic interest in South China Sea. Beijing had not long back warned OVL that its exploration activities off the Vietnamese coast were illegal and constituted a violation of China’s sovereignty over South China sea.

China, which claims exclusive and absolute rights over the South China Sea, is in dispute with its maritime neighbours—Brunei, Malaysia, Vietnam, Philippines and Taiwan. Against this backdrop, India has strongly advocated in favour of freedom of maritime traffic and over flights in the South China Sea region. Of course, New Delhi is clear that the escalating dispute in the South China sea region should be settled amicably and peacefully and within the framework of international agreements including the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). On his part, US Secretary of State John Kerry during his late January 2016 visit to Beijing had called on China to decrease the tensions over the disputed parts of South China Sea.

In a brazen show of its determination to appropriate the resources in the South China Sea region, China in early 2016 had landed two more civilian aircraft on an artificial island it had not long back carved out in the contested part of the South China region. A few days prior to this, China had accomplished the first successful landing of its first civilian aircraft, attracting worldwide condemnation. In particular Vietnam had accused Beijing of the “serious infringement of its sovereignty.”

The South China Sea, which is rich in natural resources including oil and gas, also happens to be a strategic shipping lane accounting as it does for well over half of the world’s commercial shipping. Chinese neighbours who are claimants to the South China Sea resources have accused this Communist giant of illegal reclamation of land in the disputed areas to create artificial islands equipped with facilities that could be exploited for boosting Chinese strategic and military objectives.

Significantly, an article featured sometime back in the state run People’s Daily had observed that South China Sea islands had been China’s territory since ancient times and successive Chinese governments had reinforced their jurisdictional authority over the islands in the South China Sea. Against this backdrop during his March 2015 Mauritius visit, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had made a fervent plea for the peaceful resolution of maritime issues and respect for international maritime rules. This statement assumes significance in the light of China trying to monopolize the resources of South China Sea.

To strengthen its power projection in the oceanic stretches in its immediate neighbourhood, China recently joined hands with Russia to carry out joint naval exercises in the Sea of Japan. According to Chinese Defence Ministry, these exercises were meant to “bolster the comprehensive strategic cooperation and partnership between Russia and China and to increase the military capabilities of both the countries to counter maritime threat”. The Chinese neighbours are worried a lot over China hiking its military spending by 10% in its defence budget for 2015-16. A large part of this would go towards beefing up its navy with a thrust on anti submarine ships and developing aircraft carriers.

In the context of the South China Sea dispute assuming a serious dimension, China has projected an assertive military strategy focussed on enhancing its naval reach for the first time to ”open area protection” far beyond its shores. A detailed Chinese White Paper warns about the threat from “belligerent neighbours” keen on “appropriating the resources of South China Sea.”

The possibility of the Chinese naval build up, presumably meant to secure Chinese interests in South China Sea region, could also pose a threat to Indian maritime interests in the longer run. For China has made it very clear that it is not going to leave any stone unturned to exercise its sway over the Indian ocean region.“The Indian Ocean region cannot be referred to as India’s backyard. If the Indian Ocean was India’s backyard then how are the navies of the US, Australia and other countries operating there” is the observation of the Senior Captain Zhao Yia, a Chinese naval warfare strategist and Associate Professor at National Defence University in Beijing.

And on another front, China is focusing increasingly on outer space to sustain the strategic edge of its defence forces. In line with its time tested military doctrine of exploiting the strides in space technology for supporting the defensive and offensive capabilities of PLA(People’s Liberation Army), China is also working towards setting up a 50,000 strong space force under the overall command of Central Military Commission.

China is keen to replace US as the global military supremo through an increasing reliance on space based assets. For instance, Col. Liu Mingfu, a well known Chinese warrior scholar in his popular tome, “The China Dream”, advocates the need for China to overturn the US global dominance to secure peace not just in the region but also worldwide. ” Becoming the strongest nation in the world is China’s goal in the 21st century,” says Mingfu.

In the Chinese quest to attain space dominance as a pathway to establishing its global strategic supremacy, lies the current scramble of the Chinese political leadership to strengthen its satellite networks. Not surprisingly then China has stepped up the frequency of the launch of earth observation satellites featuring a variety of advanced sensors and earth imaging systems. By all means, this strategy could help China overtake USA in satellite surveillance capability in the future. The Yaogan remote sensing satellite constellation appears to be the key Chinese space platform to boost military surveillance for attaining strategic dominance. Against this backdrop, Professor Liu Yu, an expert at Peking’s University of School of Earth and Space Sciences notes that the Chinese project for advanced earth observation satellite systems could be a major game changer in terms of China’s space based surveillance capability.

As it is, the Taiwanese Strait imbroglio of 1995-96 was an event that forced China to expand and refine its satellite based reconnaissance capabilities. Following this, China is known to have strengthened its capability in electro optical, synthetic aperture radar and electronic intelligence capabilities by a substantial extent. “Starting from almost no live surveillance capability ten years ago, today PLA has likely equalled the US’s ability to observe targets from space for real time operations,” say researchers at the Washington DC based World Security Institute. The dominant opinion in the US strategic circles is that sophisticated space platforms being operated by China could limit the extent of US intervention in the event of China planning to capture Taiwan by force.

Against this backdrop, there is a mounting concern in the US political establishment over the rapidly expanding and increasingly sophisticated Chinese space capabilities that could ultimately help this Asian communist giant acquire diplomatic and defence related advantages. Such an eventuality could hurt the long term national security and geo strategic interests of USA. The consensus in the US Defence Department is that China’s modernized military and especially its newly acquired space related capabilities could be put to use in ways that increases China’s ability to gain diplomatic advantage or resolve disputes in its favour and possibly against US national interests. As noted by Ashley Tellis, a senior associate with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the point is that space has come to acquire a privileged position in China’s military thinking.

The Pentagon is of view that China’s growing space capability is clearly reflected in the frequency of its launches involving satellites with refined capabilities. It believes that China is on a spree of expanding its space based intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, navigation, meteorological and communications satellite constellations.

With a view to stay ahead of its adversaries in the crucial area of space based capability, China is busy boosting its maritime observation capability through ocean surveillance satellites under China’s 863 State High Technology development plan. There is no denying the point that China’s rapidly expanding satellite surveillance capability could alter power equations in the Asian continent and also minimize the scope of the American defence forces to operate in the region.

Western defence analysts hold the view that China has made rapid strides in putting in place space based ELINT(electronic intelligence) capability and operational tests of the system linking those assets to ground based C4ISR network for covering ground based targets. By enhancing its satellite based capability through the advanced technology space platforms China is also working on augmenting its launch capability. China’s next generation gigantic Long March-5 vehicle capable of lofting a 25-tonne class payload into a near earth orbit will help China step up the frequency of space missions from the newly built ultra modern space port at Wenchang in Hainan island. This spaceport which is now edging towards attaining operational status, is China’s firs coastal space launch centre. For all the three currently operational Chinese space ports are land locked. This ultra modern space port is designed to launch modules of large space vehicles. According to Chinese space experts, the strategic location of this launch complex close to the equator would help increase the payload mass of the launch vehicles taking off from here by a substantial extent.

Meanwhile, China’s home grown Beidou navigation satellite constellation with as many as 35 satellites is expected to be completed by 2020. Right at the moment, the Beidou constellation is supported by 20 satellites. For Chinese defence forces, an uninterrupted access to the navigation capability of Beidou will be a veritable force multiplier. For the most prominent uses to which Beidou would be harnessed include firing of long range missiles and precision weapons with a high degree of accuracy. For the Chinese defence forces, Beidou along with other satellites meant for a variety of application, would hold the key for a well co-ordinated operations of a battle- field strategy by seamlessly integrating weapons systems, missiles, radars, sensor suits, UAVs, fighter jets, transport aircraft, electronics and communications network, logistics and support systems and defence forces spread across and around the world.

Meanwhile, defence analysts observe that the Chinese plan for a permanent space station by the end of this decade could give it a strategic edge in the event of a war involving “space assets”. Indeed the successful accomplishments of the docking exercise carried out by the Chinese astronauts as part of the plan to build an orbiting space station by the end of this decade has military implications in terms of giving a significant thrust to the Chinese space war efforts. An autonomous orbital complex would help China boost it space war efforts by serving as a strategic outpost in the final frontiers. ”The most important point is that China is developing docking techniques and technology, which in turn means precision control for thrusters and the likes which has obvious military and anti satellite implications, “says Dean Chang, a research fellow at the Heritage Foundation’s Asian Studies Centre in Washington.

A fact filled report from Japan’s National Institute for Defence Studies says,“ It is likely that China will continue to actively engage in space development in the years ahead, given that such development serve as a vital means of achieving military competitiveness against US and raising national prestige”. And according to Richard D. Fisher Jr, Senior Fellow, Asian Military Affairs at International Assessment and Strategic Center “It is important to consider that the PLA’s projection into space is an integral part of China’s development of military capabilities to dominate the Asia Pacific region and then to project power globally into 2020s and 2030s.”

Significantly, Chinese warfare strategists look at the space based data as a crucial factor in deciding the outcome of the wars in the future. “This will require China to achieve space supremacy defined as the ability to freely use space and to deny the use of space to adversaries, ”says the report “China Dream, Space Dream: China’s Progress in Space Technologies and Implications for the United States” brought out by the University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation.

Chinese military strategists are fully well aware that sustaining supremacy in space holds the key to reinforcing supremacy on the ground. And the entire Chinese battlefield strategy is being slowly and but surely fine-tuned for being driven from space. For China outer space along with the cyberspace holds the key to stay at the winning edge of the war.