India’s refusal to be part of OBOR and Doklam stand-off has made China occupy more mind space than at any time in the recent past. Conversely Global Times, mouthpiece of the Communist Party of China, regularly publishes articles threatening and advising India.
There is no need for India to be submissive because China’s GDP is five times ours and ape its achievements in infrastructure and manufacturing. India’s actions should be driven by its civilizational values and not in response to Chinese moves.
Till now, Indians thought their primary enemy was Pakistan, a neighbour whose people are of the same stock and seen on prime time. With China it is different.
How does one deal with a neighbour who is determined to be Asia’s leading power and “steer you towards participation in its grand geopolitical design represented by the Belt and Road Initiative”, grabs your territory stealthily, is less visible, makes equipment at a lower cost, whose phones you use, has deep pockets, uses Pakistan to keep you tied down, woos your neighbours and impedes your emergence as a rival power.
How should India deal with China? First some broad contours.
Our mantra should be cooperate and compete. Be firm, keep channels of communication open and never let your guard down. There is no need for India to be submissive because China’s GDP is five times ours and ape its achievements in infrastructure and manufacturing. India’s actions should be driven by its civilizational values and not in response to Chinese moves. In Africa India must play to its strengths. We need partners to make China understand the need for mutual respect. Every Indian move has to be timed and not give China an opportunity to play the victim card. Simultaneously, we can work together for greater benefit e.g. climate change.
India needs an integrated and comprehensive policy towards China. Here is what she must do.
• China is doing what it does because of economic strength. India must be focussed on becoming an economic and military power.
One of the reasons for China flexing its muscles is improved relations with Russia.
• The next time China offers to play a constructive role in improving relations between India and Pakistan, India must offer to help China in resolving its disputes with Japan, Vietnam, Taiwan and Philippines amongst others.
• The more the Chinese needle us, the firmer must be our resolve. Sometimes India could, with a smile, show China the mirror for e.g. by asking why it supports terrorism.
• One of the reasons for China flexing its muscles is improved relations with Russia. The latter needs Chinese support to counter the U.S. led economic sanctions and in Afghanistan. India must not get unnerved because China might, true to its nature, turn the tables on Russia once it becomes a dominant partner.
• On ties with Russia and U.S. former foreign secretary Kanwal Sibal recently wrote, “We must have both the US and Russia as close partners and work with both countries on issues where our respective interests coincide without undermining the legitimate interests of either country.”
• India must woo Taiwanese companies to invest in India especially in telecom hardware.
• Sooner than later China shall use water as a weapon against India. Study the impact of the proposed “the 400-km cascade of dams on the Indus will stretch all the way from Gilgit-Baltistan to the existing Tarbela Dam near Islamabad.” Ditto for Brahmaputra.
India should respond to Chinese moves in the Himalayas and the subcontinent with counter-moves in the South China Sea and beyond.
• India must be steadfast in its stand that Gilgit and Baltistan are part of India and provide “political, diplomatic and moral support to the Baloch people who may be engaged in disrupting the corridor”.
It is counter-moves that could put pressure on China or else India is left responding.
• India invariably associates defending the border by the army. Since it is impossible to guard every inch of land India is always under pressure. We need to change tack as noted columnist Nitin Pai recently wrote. “India should respond to Chinese moves in the Himalayas and the subcontinent with counter-moves in the South China Sea and beyond. By using sea power in a geography that China is sensitive about, India could raise the costs of Beijing’s Himalayan enterprises”.
• Agni IV, V and Brahmos missiles are yet to be inducted into the armed forces. Government must raise the bar and induct by September quarter 2018 if not earlier.
• On the border issue, every time China raises it we must remind them of the 1996 agreement, unilaterally repudiated by them in 2002, where it was agreed to ‘clarifying the alignment of the LAC in those segments where they (the two sides) have different perceptions’. The ball is in China’s court.
• China is not only at our border but has an ever increasing presence in trade, business and financial markets.
Writing in MINT, Rajrishi Singhal gave three examples of such presence. The author analyses intent and suggests response.
The government must use tariff and non-tariff barriers to keep the Chinese at bay.
One, recently Chinese handset manufacturer Vivo won rights to cricket tournament Indian Premier League. “Vivo will pay Rs 2,199 crore for the next five years i.e. a 267% premium over the base price of Rs 120 crore a year”. Subsequently Vivo signed a record five-year deal worth Rs 300 crore with Star Sports, broadcaster for Pro Kabaddi League.
Is it not odd for a company to bid at record levels and invest so much money in sponsorships? The deeper intent is to associate Chinese brands with two popular Indians sports.
Vivo could be a front for the Chinese government just like it widely believed that a “Chinese-origin Singaporean billionaire is for Rs 305 crore massive gilded statue of Buddha” being built in Thimpu.
It is unfair to expect honourable judges and sports administrators to understand geo-political strategies.
Since cricket is India’s biggest religion the government could ask BCCI to revisit the Vivo sponsorship offer.
Two, Singhal wrote, “So also in the 12th Plan alone, close to 30% of generating capacity was sourced from China, with the trend continuing in the 13th Plan as well.”
In such and similar sectors the government could introduce the concept of Minimum Import Price (MIP) as was done in the steel sector. MIP is the minimum price per tonne that Indian firms have to pay while importing products into India and was introduced to counter unfair trade practices. Remember only when Indian companies make profits will they invest in fresh capacity.
The government must keep Team ISRO motivated so India’s achievements in space technology continue.
Three, “among the list of banks managing the recent Central Depository Services Ltd initial public offering was a curious name: Haitong Securities India Pvt Ltd. Haitong, as per its website, is China’s second largest securities firm.”
An open invite to FDI is fine but access has to be mutual.
The government must use tariff and non-tariff barriers to keep the Chinese at bay.
• Be it investing in infrastructure projects in Iran, India’s neighbourhood or building a Buddha statue in Bhutan, India must look to pool its resources with Japan.
• China must be told that an escalation of border tensions would severely impact trade ties and reaching trade agreements at the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) to be held in Hyderabad next week.
National achievements and soft power are important tools of psychological warfare. So-
• The government must keep Team ISRO motivated so India’s achievements in space technology continue.
• Identify sports where China dominates but India has competence, for example, badminton and then build world champions. Work towards sustained dominance and do not get swayed by a few victories.
China supports countries that indulge in terrorism and are a threat to world peace.
• India has gifted China, Buddhism then and Yoga now. This needs wide publicity.
Inspite of the fact that yoga helps Chinese women, mostly in the age group of 25 to 40, to remain young, healthy and fit China keeps threatening India by saying it will teach it a lesson. Notwithstanding Chinese hostility, the government must encourage more Indians esp. those from the northeast, to learn yoga and offer to help the Chinese.
Simultaneously the world, Chinese and Indians included must know that –
• Annexing areas comes naturally to China. It annexed Tibet, Manchuria, Xinjiang and parts of Mongolia. To this add 38,000 sq kms of Akshai Chin (part of the princely state of Jammu and Kashmir), that has since provided China with the only passageway between Tibet and Xinjiang.
• China supports countries that indulge in terrorism and are a threat to world peace.
For example the Pakistan North Korea nuclear and missile nexus. Last year Samuel Ramani wrote in thediplomat.com, “During the early 1990s, Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto purchased Rodong long-range missiles from North Korea. In exchange, Pakistan supplied Pyongyang with “civilian nuclear technology”. In 2002, U.S. officials announced that Pakistan had exported gas centrifuges to help North Korea enrich uranium and construct a nuclear bomb.”
By using Pakistan as a route for nuclear materials entering North Korea China could strengthen the DPRK’s military capabilities without spoiling relations with the U.S.
A second example is Chinese support to Pakistan, a country that gave refuge to Osama Bin Laden and uses terror as an instrument of State policy.
Next India must invest in and nurture relations –
…the Centre needs to counter possible Chinese moves to influence elections in India. The Chinese might do so because it believes that with every election victory the current dispensations stand on international issues gets tougher.
• With a countries of Southeast Asia, the subcontinent and Japan.
• Former ambassador and senior diplomat G Parthasarathy recently wrote that India has won gratitude in vocational training and education facilities for Myanmar personnel. He added our focus should be on assisting populations living close to our borders through imaginative schemes for education, health, communications and small/village industries.
• Start direct flights between Imphal and Yangon and road connectivity. Both would increase trade and tourism.
• Nepal and Bangladesh are welcome to do business with China. Give them a booklet of “how Chinese investments in Africa, Sri Lanka and Myanmar have faced strong local backlash and national election campaigns in Zambia and Sri Lanka were held on an anti-China plank.” They could also read China’s debt trap diplomacy by Brahma Chellaney
• In case China makes a railway line to Nepal make it known to our brothers there that India would not allow import of Chinese goods through the Indo-Nepal border.
• India needs to promote tourism to the Northeast in a big way. The regions development and integration is critical to the success of India’s Look East Policy.
Lastly, the Centre needs to counter possible Chinese moves to influence elections in India. The Chinese might do so because it believes that with every election victory the current dispensations stand on international issues gets tougher.
How India must respond to Chinese investments in Africa requires a separate piece.
Soft and psychological power become potent when accompanied by comprehensive national strength. If and when Indian builds it, the intelligent will get the message.