The final act of the “˜Designer War is the quick “˜surgical operation, using both smart-soldiers and conventional soldiers to inflict ultimate unacceptable damage to force the adversary to capitulate. This act, may or may not be enacted if “˜Act-One and “˜Act-Two have already produced the desired results.
It would be apparent now that the Designer War aims at graduated escalation of conflict. Though each act of the module is aimed at virtual capitulation of the likely adversary, yet the real capitulation will come through second or third act. Thus, in all situations, the introductory act is a pre-requisite, where the main weapon is the world media and the battlefield is the living room of every home equipped with television.
But in most cases, either the second or the third act may be omitted. The omission or non-omission is subject to the non-availability of time to wage a protracted ‘Bleeding War’; degree of success achieved in the introductory act and finally the existing technological parity or disparity. If there was near parity in the technological quality of available weapon systems, then the third act definitely will not be enacted. In such a case, the Designer war may be kept limited only to the Bleeding war phase. If there was total disparity, the Bleeding War phase may only be partially enacted or totally omitted. Also, the success of the introductory act is directly related to the third condition of technological parity or disparity.
In the age of manifold lethality of nuclear weapons, the last thing the world wants to see is a world wide nuclear conflagration, where there will be no winners. All the same, the basic reasons behind NPT (Non-proliferation Treaty) or the CTBT (Comprehensive Test Ban-Treaty) is not to rid the world of such deadly arsenal of mass-destruction but to allow ‘Nuclear-Haves’ a clear monopoly and a basic edge in the Designer War of the future. Albeit unsaid, implicit in these treaties is a clumsy attempt to keep the world uni-polar and prevent it from becoming multi-polar.
The theorists of the Designer War in USA had clearly foreseen its implications in the mid-eighties and set upon to fool the world through NPT and START (Strategic Arms Reductions Talks). They insisted on Non-proliferation, but not on total destruction or total disarmament. In any case, in the world of today, to talk of total destruction and total disarmament of WMD is a misnomer. We must know that the knowledge and expertise to produce these weapons exists and will be safe-deposited. Therefore, what is the guarantee that they can not be assembled again even if total disarmament was carried out?
Whether the five nations of the Nuclear Club ““ accept or do not accept the nuclear- status of the new member, it is immaterial. The fact remains they would have a proportionate deterrence to discourage naked aggression.
All the same, in a way, the availability of nuclear weapons have made the wars of active and naked-aggression, as in the case of Hitler’s war, a totally redundant phenomenon. Come what may, nuclear weapons have come to stabilize outward peace in the world. Clandestinely and covertly, nation after nation, yearn for this capability to reduce the threat of naked aggression. If they do not, they will be subjected to a similar humiliation as did Iraq of Saddam Hussein. Whether the five nations of the Nuclear Club – accept or do not accept the nuclear- status of the new member, it is immaterial. The fact remains they would have a proportionate deterrence to discourage naked aggression.
Thus, as the ‘Nuclear-Haves-Club’ enlarges itself, ‘Active and direct wars’ will be replaced by ‘Bleeding Wars’, where there will be no monkey-dancing across the borders but a sole thrust will be on exploiting sensitive vulnerabilities deep inside the enemy territory. ‘Fronts’ and ‘Rears’ of the battlefield, as known to mankind, will soon disappear.
The condition of ‘ugly-peace’ or ‘ugly-stability’ brought about by proliferating nuclear weapons, will make ‘Bleeding War’ the only tool of Clausewitz’s concept of war as the other extension of political ambition of a nation. Bleeding War is going to be the order of the day in the first and second or even third decade of the twenty first century. Nations after nations are going to fall prey for it. Emphasis will shift to war by other means or WOM and Bleeding Wars will be the results. Internal vulnerabilities of nations will provide adequate spark for ignition by interested adversaries and become the battleground of this new war.
‘Nuclearised’ South Asia and Impact of WOM on India
Let us not see Mumbai–26/11 in isolation. It is closely linked to the war India has been fighting for the past 20 years, whether In Kashmir, Assam, Punjab, Northeast, or even Maharashtra, Andhra, Karnataka and Gujarat. The serial blasts in New Delhi, Ahmadabad, Bangalore, Kanpur, Jaipur and Guwahati in 2008, were glimpses of the war India fights unabated since the rehearsal of exercise “Zarb-e-Momin” (strike of the pure) by the Pakistan Army.
The aim of this war was to take the war into enemy territory to create a strategic depth for Pakistan. The actual rehearsal and exercise was the third part of the Designer War or WOM General Zia-Ul-Haque had envisioned. Its second part was to “bleed india through thousand cuts” and balkanize it. It is this part which was launched by Pakistan with the “azadi movement” in Kashmir and Punjab in 1989–90. In the mid nineties, it extended it to North East and Assam. It has now made in-roads in UP, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Maharashtra and Gujarat.
In the north J&K threatens to become a painful brain-tumor for India. No cure seems to be in sight.
For a while, let us flash back to the years 1990–92 in India. Punjab was in flames; Assam was in turmoil; Manipur, Nagaland and Tripura were burning; J&K had begun to generate heat; Mumbai and Maharashtra were exploding under the weight of serial blasts; UP was being torn apart by communal riots and Tamil Nadu had begun to feel the tremors. Do not forget about the Naxlite movement in Andhra Pradesh. Now turn to the present times. In the year 2009, fires in Punjab have not yet been fully doused.
Assam continues to be rocked by ULFA and Bodo extremists. Do not discount ISI-backed Muslim militant organizations in Assam; Manipur, Nagaland and Tripura have not been cured of separatist fever. Add to it UPVA (United People’s Volunteer of Arunachal) and ULFA (United Liberation Volunteers of Arunachal Pradesh) movements in Arunachal Pradesh; MELTA (Meghalya Liberation Tigers) and MULA (Meghalya United Liberation Association) organizations of Meghalya and HPC (Hammer People’s Convention) rising aspirations in Mizoram, you get a rather gloomy picture of the entire North East.
Further west while, one finds the Gorkhaland issue waiting to erupt again, at the same time, West Bengal will soon have another headache from Malda and its surrounding areas where demand for a separate state is raising its head. Moving west of it, you find UP, Bihar, Orissa, Chattisgarh and Jharkhand witnessing rampant growth of left wing extremists, equipped with sophisticated weapons.
The irony is, in India, people still do not realize that they have been at war for the last 18 to 20 years. It is because we have not yet grasped the nuances of WOM and the Bleeding War. The Indian mind-set continues to see war as monkey–dancing across the borders. We called the Kargil Conflict of 1999 as ‘war-like-situation’ and not war. We call Mumbai 26/11 as an act of terrorism. They came by sea with a well planned objective of paralyzing the financial capital of India, nay India. They held India to ransom for 60 hours. Pray, what was it, if not war.