Political Agreements & Human Rights.
Pakistan and China lack legitimacy to criticize India for going back on a political agreement with people of J&K or to raise any Human Rights concerns. In 1951, a ‘Seventeen Point Agreement’ was signed between Tibet and China guaranteeing autonomy and non-interference from Beijing in Tibet’s political system. While fleeing from China in 1959 Dalai Lama repudiated it, by then China had violated every article of the Agreement and it had already lost legitimacy. Its ‘One China Policy’ is predicated not on any agreement but on their argument that Tibet was always a part of China.
Pakistan needs no reminder of its dismal record. Erstwhile Northern Areas comprising Gilgit-Baltistan, are directedly administered by Islamabad as Federally Administered Northern Areas (FATA). Locals of the area have no political rights and live under the boots of the Pakistani military.
On the Human Rights front too, both are equally brutal. China, with over a million Muslim Uighurs in Xinjian province virtually under detention, has no moral authority to raise the Human Rights concern of Kashmiri Muslims. Pakistan is tight-lipped about the atrocities on Uighur Muslims or brutal use of force on protesters in China administered Hongkong demanding a democratic setup. Pakistan’s brutalities on Shias of Gilgit-Baltistan, Balochis, or in other FATAs should shake its conscience before raising any concerns about Kashmir.
Internal Security Implications.
After dilution of Article 370 by the Centre, unprecedented deployment of security forces, complete communication lockdown and large-scale arrest of political leaders and separatist cadres ensured effective sealing of Kashmir Valley to contain violence. Kashmir remained largely incident-free. Centre’s move dazed Kashmiris beyond words. No sooner were some leaders set free, security presence reduced, and communication blockade eased than the advent of COVID-19 pandemic re-imposed severe restriction in the Valley. Nonetheless, the internal security of J&K remains a cause of serious concern for the security establishment.
Of late, gunfights with insurgents have picked up as have the attempts by Pakistan-based Jihadis to infiltrate across LoC. Incidents of violence are bound to increase. Be it at the LoC or inside J&K, India can’t afford to let its guard down. With no political patronage now available to forces inimical to Indian interest in Kashmir and New Delhi now administering UT directly, response to security threats is likely to be swift and telling.
Political Implications.
Opponents of the Centre’s decision claim the move would further alienate Kashmiris, provide new propaganda tools to insurgents and offer diplomatic ammunition to Pakistan. Until now no such apprehensions have proven correct.
Critics also feel the move to downgrade and split the state into two UTs has put a question mark over India’s federalism. This apprehension is not entirely misplaced. With weak/non-existent opposition at the Centre, effective checks and balances are missing. If New Delhi promotes its centralising instincts, regional political entities, representing regional aspirations, are likely to be reduced to the margins. Shyam Saran, former Foreign Secretary, says ‘This opens up a dangerous precedent that may strike at the very root of Indian federalism. It is conceivable that in future, a central government determination of a breakdown of law and order may be used to impose governor’s (sic) in a state, using the same procedure as applied in J & K, reduce it to UT on security ground’[13]. But this is a subject beyond the scope of this discussion.
Kashmiris’ Concern.
Kashmiris are extraordinarily aware lot and intensely emotional about their identity. Though tight-lipped, they grudge at having been divested of ‘autonomy’ – whatever was left of that. Delving deep into their minds, their main apprehensions are about jobs, land, political rights and identity issues. Main concerns, like jobs and land issues to some extent, find resonance in the Jammu region too.
Jobs. According to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), ‘Jammu & Kashmir’s monthly average unemployment rate, between January 2016 and July 2019, is 15 percent. It is more than double the national monthly average unemployment rate of 6.4 percent during the period [14]. Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) order reserving only Level IV jobs for the locals raised concerns not only in Kashmir but also in the Jammu region where BJP has its electoral stakes. Though the Central government panicked to withdraw the order to restored job reservations for all levels, political opportunism was manifest. Suspicion still lurks in the Kashmiri minds.
Land. MHA has promulgated J&K Domicile Law restricting domicile status only to only those outsiders who have lived in the state for 15 years with some relaxations for students and employees of central services working in J&K. Kashmiris feel that the new law is aimed to bring outsiders to settle in the Valley, to change its demography. They feel such attempts would be packaged as development projects.
Identity. For Kashmiris identity concern is mainly about ‘religion’. Purely from the standpoint of traditional syncretic Islam in Kashmir, concerns about ‘religious identity’ are misplaced. In the last three decades, tolerant Islam in Kashmir has been overwhelmed by Wahhabization/Arabization of the Muslim society. That is the reason for intense conflict in the Kashmiri psyche.
Exaggerated statements like one from Union Minister G. K. Reddy that government had ordered survey of’50,000 temples’ that had either been closed or destroyed in Kashmir Valley [15] did not help allay local fears about the Centre’s intentions. The estimates about the number of temples in J&K vary, some even claim numbers as low as 4,000 [16].
Fresh Delimitation. That BJP announced fresh delimitation of constituencies in J&K has not gone unnoticed in Kashmir as an attempt to shift political clout South of Pirpanjal. Admittedly, existing delimitation is a fraud perpetrated on the Jammu region by the Kashmir centric political caucus. Redrawing of constituencies is bound to shift the political balance to the Jammu region provided this exercise is undertaken in tandem with a fresh census. However, the Centre’s decision to redraw constituencies based on the 2011 census is baffling and a futile exercise.
Public Safety Act (PSA). PSA Act, the brainchild of Sheikh Abdullah, father and grandfather of Farooq and Omar respectively, ironically was used to incarcerate Sheikh’s progeny. That aside, the continuation of this draconian law under the new regime has unnerved the Kashmiris.
Corruption & Governance. On 5th August 2019, Amit Shah claimed in Rajya Sabha that Article 370 was the root cause of corruption, terrorism, and alienation of the state. [17]. Locals, especially the farmers, are highly critical of such claims and maintain that rampant corruption continues after dilution of Article 370[18].
Kashmir Pandit (KP) Rehabilitation. The exodus of KPs from the Valley is modern history’s most successful and swift ethnic cleansing operations. Locals have not missed the message that BJP has used KPs for electoral gains only and has done precious little in the last six years to reverse their exodus from the Valley. Centre’s rehabilitation rhetoric is seen by Kashmiris as a ruse to resettle non-locals and ex-servicemen in the Valley. Hence there is stiff resistance to their return. A widespread rumour in the Valley claims thousands of non-locals are being coached in Kashmir language in Nagpur to push them into the Valley as KPs. However, this fact could not be verified. Even KP leaders seeking residency rights for those KPs who migrated from the Valley as early as in 1931[19], though a justified demand, has further raised doubts in the Valley about New Delhi’s intentions.
Way Ahead.
While defanging Article 370 is a step in the right direction, security concerns in J&K shall continue to remain paramount for a long time. Pakistan will not stay away from Kashmir for too long. Signals emanating from Pakistan point to an increased threat from ‘non-state actors’ whose response ‘could be unpredictable and unrestricted’. Simultaneously, there are calls in Pakistan to unleash ‘information warfare’ on the Kashmir issue and to raise ‘Kashmir Fund’ [8]. India needs to be vigilant.
‘Wabbisation/Arbanisation of Islam radicalises society. This threat in Kashmir is real and needs to be reversed. Direct administration of Ladakh by Delhi has effectively checkmated Chinese muscle-flexing in the region.
New Delhi has to realise that firming up territories alone does not usher in peace, tranquillity and development in a conflict zone. Ultimately, Kashmiris have to be won over not by doles, freebies or appeasement but through effective and corruption-free governance. The Central government must put in place an effective outreach mechanism to address peoples’ grievances in J&K. There is a need to overhaul the entire administrative setup in J&K to weed out those who have developed vested interests in Kashmir turmoil.
Mistakes of the past must not be repeated. New Delhi must not impose a political outfit or an individual in J&K. Such measures, in the past, have often unleashed competitive communalism in the Valley. Centre’s patronage to Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is a recent instance. Continuation of Central rule would be a better option until credible political outfits emerge on their own.
Lastly, there are vast numbers from Kashmir who are languishing in tenements outside the Valley for the last three decades. Surprisingly, successive governments have neglected their plight and rights. Taking care of their economic and political rights and their security concerns, those Kashmiri Pandits who are willing must be rehabilitated in the Valley. They would prove to be an asset to the nation in the future.
Notes:
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Dr.Faizan Mustafa, leading Constitutional expert: Interview to Karan Thapper https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=share&v=efpofIKxjeE.
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Srinath Raghavan: ‘Myths’ around Nehru’s Kashmir Policies- National Herald, 14th November 2019.
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Lt. Gen. Francis Tuker: ‘While Memory Serves’, first Edition 1950.
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Praveen Swami: Secret life of Article 370: Nehru’s use of ruthless force to integrate Kashmir behind the veil of ‘special status’ offers lessons for today- Firstpost, April 12, 202.
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G. Verghese: A J&K premier: From Myth to Reality, 3rdMarch 2007.
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Srinath Raghavan: ‘Myths’ around Nehru’s Kashmir Policies- National Herald, 14th November 2019.
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Economic Times: Article 370: Why is Kashmir tense about it & what can India do, August 5, 2019.
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Snehesh Alex Philip: Balakot, Article 370 Changed geopolitics of the region: Pakistan Army Chief in ‘Green Book’, The Print, April 27, 2020.
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Brahma Chellany: After Article 370 – Open Online Magazine, 23 August 2019.
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Parthasarathy: India’s bold action, new posture take Pakistan and China by surprise, The New Indian Express, April 11, 2020.
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The Guardian, UK Edition, April 28, 2020: ‘Trumph says China Could have stopped Covid-19 and suggest US will seek damages’.
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Shyam Saran: Morning After- India needs to be prepared for the external and internal its own decision to ‘dilute’ Article 370, India Today, August 6, 2019.
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Nitin Kiran: J&K among top 5 states with high monthly unemployment rate, India Today, August 6, 2019.
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Article 370 gone, Modi government plans to reopen 50, 000 temples closed in Kashmir, the Financial Express, September 23, 2019.
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Mudasar Wani: ‘How can Modi government reopen 50,000 temples in Valley, when there are only 4,000 in J&K’, The Wire, October 5, 2019.
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Chaturvaidi, ‘Article 370’.
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Ayaz Wani: Life in Kashmir after Article 370 – ORF, January 28, 2020.
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Daily Excelsior: KPS (Kashmiri Pandit Sabha) submits memorandum to LG’, April 22, 2019.
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Impact of abrogation of Article 370 on geopolitics in immediate neighbourhood, international relations and polity within explicitly analysed with deep research.
A scholarly write up on an issue not understood by majority. Well researched article speaks volumes of the in-depth understanding of Kashmiri psyche and the pain f of Col yoginder Kandhiri. He indeed has the Knack of understanding the pulse of the land he belongs to. Keep it up!
Excellent article with detailed Analysis about abrogation of Article 370 in J & K. Future implications has been an eye opener…. how countries like China ,Pakistan and Afghanistan are reacting and will react to the change has been well drafted…
I must compliment Col Yoginder Kandhari for this explicit articulation of the genesis of Art 370 from its inception to its final burial. It is after a long spell that I got to read an article like this penned by someone who has displayed a clear insight into the realm of J&K and of the Geo-politics associated with it
I had always been wondering why the powers that be could not effectively think of or implement abrogation of Art 370 and 35A for the past seven decades or so. There has been a lot debated for and against this master stroke by the present Government; and I would not wish to get personally involved into any such discussion. I am happy that it has been done finally.
With this masterpiece on de-operationalisation of article 370, the author has concisely and comprehensively brought out the chronology of events, the existing factual realities and evolving reality on the ground away from the usual rhetoric in the multiple media forums. Undoubtedly, geo-strategically scrapping of article 370 and integrating J&K into the Indian Union has changed the balance in the sub-continent and subsequent narrative. The world at large has also moved on as Kashmir is now less of priority for the global system, though Pakistan’s nefarious establishment would desperately attempt to keep it alive for its internal dynamics and Army’s foremost role and existence.
Needless to say, that the author has done a lot of research into the subject before penning down this article and I consider this a milestone of ready reference on the subject. The article is a dispassionate attempt at a truly credible analysis of the events, without any shade of Jingoism. I have no hesitation whatsoever in referring it for all students appearing for competitive examinations.
Great analysis by the author ranging from defence strategy to economic concerns of India and China. Author has very succinctly covered the CPEC and the debt trap laid by China.
Nice article which is precise and lucid.
A very eye opening and well researched article on insertion & scrapping of Articles 370 & 35A and how the same were exploited by certain elements domestically and internationally. Both Kashmiri Pandits and National Armed Forces have paid the price for this exploitation and situation almost went out oh hands of Central Govt. Timely scrapping of these Articles will now show the results provided the central union consolidate the gains and keep the adversaries at bay especially in these times of fighting pandemic.
Col kandhari has written a very well articulated and researched article. He seems to have very clear insight into J&K subject and of Geopolitics associated with it.
Govt needs to be prepared to ward off the nefarious designs of the enemy and his proxies within our Country.
Wishing more strength to your pen Sir
My compliments to Col Kandhari on his masterly exposition of the genesis of Art 370 from its inception to its ultimate demise.
For too long, Art 370 and 35 A, had remained as India’s version of Alexander’s Gordian Knot. Like Alexander, India too untied the knot in a most dramatic fashion..
Through the prism of Art 370, the author has covered the broad canvas of the evolving geo political situation in our neighbourhood.. He is of the opinion that India may have been forced to expedite the abrogation process, because of the then impending US-Taliban peace deal.. But I am of the view, that this was always one of the key ideological moorings of the present political dispensation. Given the majority that this Govt enjoys in Parliament, it was a question of now or never.
He has exposed Pakistan’s failed diplomatic adventurism and the pathetic state that the nation finds itself in. One hopes India pushes the agenda and ensures that the future narrative of J&K is all about POK and resettlement of the displaced Kashmiri Pandit..
This article is a milestone of ready reference on the subject and I will refer it for all students appearing for competitive examinations. Despite the author’s military background, the article is a dispassionate attempt at a truly credible analysis of the events, without being jingoistic.
In the humdrum of the ongoing covid pandemic, Kashmir has been pushed to the back burner from the front pages until the recent events and spurt in army personnel killed in action while combating Pakistan sponsored terrorists.
With the de-operationalisation of article 370, the author has concisely and comprehensively brought out the chronology of events, the existing factual realities and evolving reality on the ground away from the usual rhetoric in the multiple media forums. Geo strategically scrapping of article 370 and integrating J&K into the Indian Union has changed the balance in the sub-continent and subsequent narrative. The world at large has also moved on as Kashmir is now less of priority for the global system, but, Pakistans security establishment will desperately try to keep it alive for its internal dynamics and Army’s foremost role and existence.
Hence the adversary will continue on its single minded focus on its policy of “thousand cuts” to bleed India. The Union government need to ensure at all times that the gains achieved should not be frittered away, it must keep up the ascendancy on the ground by the administration and security forces and diplomatically by thinking with its foot, and acting on its long term goals to bring peace and prosperity to the people and region at large.
After long time reading a well articulated article written on Kashmir
Which is
Based on
● Facts
● Logical explanation of ground situation
● Balanced Views
● Ground realities highlighted
● Purely Unbiased views expressed.
● Recommendations based on ground realities
● No Politics
● Exceptiinally well written.
This can only be pen down by a person who has been on ground .Facts mentioned in this are an eye opener. I am sure this will reach those who are at helm of affairs and can contribute toward building new Kashmir post abrogation of Art 370 . Recommendations gvn by the author will definitly bring lot of positivity in new Kashmir.
Nice Article
Well written!
Well researched , deep dive analysis of the entire spectrum of strategy and geographical perspectives , it clarifies to a great deal as to what’s what to whom and where ,also the ramifications of the payoffs long and short term .
The article is worth a re – read to absorb fully and assimilate the dotted lines and the implications at the regional and the global level.
There is also some clarity on the what will be the way forward out of the myriad web in which India was entangled for over 70 years .
A good read .
“… the truth about Article 370 is bewildering intransigence of Hari Singh and blood-soaked aftermath of the partition” –
I am really baffled by this snipe at the Maharajah. How does this high ranking officer conclude this – by reading all sorts of historical misinformation floated around by the so-called civilian political experts (pseudo?) and journalists? I have come across historical pointers that the Maharajah had insisted at the time of partition negotiation led by MKG and Jinnah that he could not possibly join the “Indian Union” unless and until Sialkot comes under India. His reasonings were clear – all road connections and communications at that time passed through Sialkot. And Kashmir will be immediately cut off without Sialkot. This writer should know a similar situation erupted in that era by creation of East Pakistan which almost choked eastern India in the immediate aftermath of 1947. Assam was being supplied of essential commodities by air-bridge hurriedly set up by IAF from Bagdogra in Bengal. And people there went through great hardship for a long time.
I should point out that Sheikh Abdullah was arrested and jailed on charges laid by Rafi Ahmed Kidwai in 1950s for burning “secret State Documents” dealing with exchanges between Delhi and Srinagar. Even the PM Nehru had to agree to that move. So we are not in a postion today to form the precise picture of what transpired for the accession of Maharajah’s Kashmir.
This write-up deviates from the fundamental premise of Art 370. A succinct account can be found in Subramanian Swamy’s presentation in the parliament as recorded here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lP_0b3dpR9s .
A correction is warranted here in my post hurriedly written:
the wording : “This write-up deviates from”
needs to be replaced by : “This write-up is at variance with” !
I leave it to the readers to judge for themselves.
Each time a author/writer/researcher pens his take on a slice of history, it is purely his version of how he sees the issue/event or it’s ramifications. It is never an absolute truth nor it is a recording of the event which demands unwavering accuracy.
Mr. Sankar finds certain inaccuracies in the story that may or may not be true in exactly the same way as could be case with the facts mentioning in his version.
Each school of thought tends to narrate or read history with it’s own flavour, unless we as a nation decide to clean up the national history – which to me is a largely fictional account written by British or their stooges, these contradictions are a part and parcel of our understanding of it.
To me the above narrative comes with the flavour of the region, from a writer who is a part of the regional milieu and how he interprets the happening today in the historical backdrop.
Excellent. well researched and drawn logical conclusions.
India has the right to claim disputed State of Jammu and Kashmir on the Pakistani side of Line of Control and so is the case with Pakistan claim on Arunachal Pradesh and the Union territories of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh. Islamabad cannot be so dull to stand on the sideline and allow India’s illegitimate inclusion of Jammu and Kashmir into its Union Territories.
India has done what has been done; now let us see what Pakistan decides after subtracting fifth columnists, protecting India’s interests from Islamabad.
Very thorough in vew and journey to the untouched parts by media
For a layman this insight is highly appreciated.
Waiting for more inputs
Wonderfully articulated, well researched and balanced. Well done Sir.
Very well written article giving complete perspective of the issue
Well written article.. thank you for the insights.
A very articulate write up by the author. The current measures of deoperationalising Art 370 and 35A shall pave the way for complete assimilation of Jammu & Kashmir with rest of India.