Indian political establishment, duly advised by Babus who staff the Ministry of Defence on the pretext of civilian control over military, with both of them having no knowledge of matters military, are once again keeping their head buried in sand, ostrich like, allowing Pakistan and its all weather friend China to join hands, preparing to spring a military surprise on us. If we do not wake up in time it will have very dangerous consequences for the country.
On the issue of military strategy and foreign policy the Chinese have a speciality that while their top leaders change after every ten years or so, its foreign policy and military thinking does not change.
Starting January this year Pakistan suddenly upped the ante against India in Kashmir when one of their BAT team composed of Pakistani Army’s Special Forces and jehadis of the terror organisation Lashkar-e -Toiba beheaded two Indian soldiers. Since then they have been regularly violating cease fire along LOC in J&K State with impunity. Last month another BAT team sneaked into Indian Territory in Punj sector in Kashmir and killed five Indian soldiers. Now when Indian Army has started retaliating in kind, killing one Pakistani Army officer and five soldiers till date, Pakistan is hollering and protesting with their Parliament recently passing an anti India resolution. Pakistan sponsored jehadis have also become very active in the valley since January this year. There was a fidayeen type of attack on CRPF camp near Srinagar killing five CRPF personnel in March this year followed by ambush of an army convoy again near Srinagar killing eight soldiers.
While all this was taking place on the western front Chinese soldiers in the month of April marched 19 kms deep in Indian Territory in ladakh sect and pitched tents there. It took three weeks of talks and persuasion by Indian emissaries before Chinese went back but not before ensuring that the hutments made by India in strategically important Chumar sector, which overlooks Chinese movements on Karakoram Highway linking China to Pakistan, were dismantled. There after they repeated the same thing in Arunachal Pradesh. In the last few years Indo-China border, which was lying dormant for so long has been activated by China. They have carried out more than six hundred incursions in the Indian Territory.
On the issue of military strategy and foreign policy the Chinese have a speciality that while their top leaders change after every ten years or so, its foreign policy and military thinking does not change. At best it may undergo cosmetic updating in keeping with the changing time. In late eighties When China gave nuclear bomb making technology to Pakistan, China had fully realised that Pakistan is a parasite country with just one central thought of achieving military parity with India and being anti India at all times at any cost. China gave this bomb to Pakistan to gradually wean it away from the US camp within which Pakistan was fully ensconced since its independence in 1947.At that time only China had made up its mind that India can never be its friend and that China can not dominate Asia on a futuristic perspective till India is cut to size.
China counted on Pakistan to keep Indo-Pak border active and keep India embroiled in South Asia only, thereby not allowing India to fully achieve its military and economic potential.
China counted on Pakistan to keep Indo-Pak border active and keep India embroiled in South Asia only, thereby not allowing India to fully achieve its military and economic potential. Pakistan readily accepted this role. Our political masters fell in this trap lock stock and barrel. We fought three wars with Pakistan meanwhile China kept its 4500 km long border with India absolutely peaceful and tranquil. China did not even come to the aid of Pakistan in both 1965 and 1971 Indo-Pak Wars because it had its own long term plan in motion. Indian leaders were so pleased that they use to praise china in world forums that despite the Indo-China border being disputed, China is so peace loving that this border remains tranquil and Indo-China trade is flourishing. It never occurred to our leaders that If China is all that peace loving then how come it had settled its border disputes with smaller countries like Myanmar and major powers like Russia but not India? This resulted in we neglecting our Eastern border with China and shaped our armed forces Pakistan specific.
China annexed Tibet by force in 1958 while India did not even protest. Had our political masters being correctly advised they would have realised that Tibet was militarily very important to India because it formed a buffer between mainland China and India. In 1958 then Prime Minister Nehru in principal agreed to Tibet being part of China but did not officially endorse it. However this folly was completed by the NDA Prime Minister AB Bajpai who officially conceded Tibet being part of China. Having annexed Tibet China needed time to consolidate its gains by settling main land Han Chinese in Tibet and building military infrastructure in Tibet right up to Indo-China border. So China kept this border dormant for almost four decades lulling Indians to go to sleep. While India slept China has connected Tibet with the main land China by three highways, rail line and what have u. It has built five all weather air bases in Tibet. Chinese roads are leading right up to Indian border. Today China can deploy 30 Army Divisions against India at short notice. India woke up this Chinese threat a few years back and is trying to build its own military infrastructure. However in absence of military thought in Indian political masters and their aversion to take strategic military advise from armed forces the urgency to make up for the time lost is missing. China knows the bureaucratic way of functioning of India and is now trying to exploit it by proposing new border defence pact which basically requires both the armies to be away from borders and status quo to be maintained. If India accepts this it will amount to India remaining weak on the borders in perpetuity.
It is ok that Pakistani economy is in doldrums and once friend and now turned rogue the jehadi terror organisation Tehrik-e-Pakistan-Taliban is wrecking mayhem in Pakistan by almost daily terror strikes but Pakistani Army remains confident that it will be able to tame it in due course of time. As for economy Pakistan is not worried because being the only Sunni Muslim country in the world with nuclear capability it is in great demand in oil rich West Asian countries like Saudi Arabia, more so after the declared intentions of Shia Iran of going nuclear. In addition till now America has been sustaining it because it needed Pakistan to supply its troops fighting in Afghanistan. Now after American withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2014 China is there to keep Pakistan in good humour.
With China and Pakistan having joined hands against India and the Pakistani Jehad factory ready to descend on India, very major threat is on the horizon for the country. However India political class and their Babu advisors are apparently in no hurry to take any counter measures.
Biggest asset of Pakistan is its formidable Jihad factory the world’s largest. Main players in it being Lashkar-e-Toiba, Haqqani Network, Jaish Mohammad, Hijbul Mujahedeen and other smaller groups. Afghan Taliban is also protected by Pakistan. Nobody has a doubt that after withdrawal of America from Afghanistan in 2014 Pakistan through these proxies will gain control of Afghanistan. Afghanistan will then house this Pakistani Jehad factory with Taliban ruling it and Pakistan being their mentor. Truth of the matter is that America included all the Western countries and the oil rich West Asian countries will do their best to keep these jihad’s of this Jehad factory away from their shores. For this they will not mind keeping Pakistan as their custodian and paying Pakistan for its services. Pakistan also knows that these jehadis who know nothing else but to do jehad cannot be kept idle lest they turn on Pakistan itself. Needleless to say ideal target is India which Pakistan will fully exploit without getting embroiled itself. Pakistan will always deny that it has any role in terror and jehadi activity in India.
China also needs Pakistan because its mineral rich Xinxiang Province having 10 million Muslim population is restive. China is also involved in a big way in mining of rare materials from Afghanistan. With Pakistan controlling Afghanistan, China will have no problem in continuing its mining in Afghanistan. Two years back when Americans attacked one of the Pakistani Army post on PAK-Afghan border which was facilitating these jehadis to enter Afghanistan and killed 24 Pakistani soldiers, the US-PAK relations took a nose dive. At this time Pakistan openly challenged America and shifted its loyalties to China. Even though US-PAK relations have improved since then but the die has been cast. Having defeated Russia in Afghanistan by American help now Pakistan is about to defeat America by Chinese help. This has emboldened Pakistan to try the same trick on India. India which has invested 2 billion dollars in Afghanistan for the development of this strife torn country will be ousted from here by Pakistan. Thereafter these jeahadis will descend on India. At the same time Pakistan will activate LOC in Kashmir to once again mount pressure on India to solve the Kashmir problem the Pakistani way. Meanwhile China will try to annex complete Ladakh from India there by firmly adding Pakistan in its fold via Karakorum highway.
With China and Pakistan having joined hands against India and the Pakistani Jehad factory ready to descend on India, very major threat is on the horizon for the country. However India political class and their Babu advisors are apparently in no hurry to take any counter measures. First thing India needs to do is to go all out to strengthen its armed forces to take on the joint might of China and Pakistan. Currently Indian Army is having to make do with obsolete artillery guns. Since 1986 Bofors scandal no guns have been bought. Indian Navy which some time back boasted of 19 submarines and two aircraft carriers is down to just 8 obsolete submarines and only one aircraft carrier which is so old that it is just a floating platform. Indian Air Force which had 37 plus squadrons some time back is now forced to make do with just 33 squadrons for want of fighter aircrafts. This is just two squadrons more than Pakistan.70 percent of Indian Army tanks are night blind. Thanks to Mr. clean Defence minster AK Antony and Congress led UPA Government rule of last ten years, we have never been militarily so weak.
India must also nurture friends like Japan, Vietnam, Philippines and all those countries who have border disputes with China. India must also mend fences with Iran and Russia. India along with Russia and Iran must once again reorganise Northern Alliance in Northern Afghanistan composed of Hazara, uzbek and other tribes constituting 48 percent of Afghanistan population. This will ensure Pakistan and Taliban embroiled in Afghanistan itself with no time to create mischief in India. All political parties in India must sit together and understand this dire threat looming on us. They must collectively form a joint policy to deal with this combined threat from China and Pakistan. Armed forces must be co-opted in these deliberations for our political establishment to get correct strategic advice. Having formulated this policy India then should firmly implement it. India must also strengthen its external intelligence agency Raw on the lines of CIA of America and Mossad of Israel. India must also light fires within Pakistan as Pakistan is doing in India. The time is short and a lot has to be done. We must understand that there are no short cuts available.