Indian Defence Review

‘Not only bloggers, they have sent threats to leading intellectuals of our country and also politicians, including me but we can’t be cowed down by such threats,’ Khan said. Foolproof security has been arranged for the bloggers, he said. In addition, he said, ‘We have also taken action and arrested few suspects.’ Dismissing involvement of al-Qaeda or its Indian wing, AQIS, in the killing of bloggers, he stated, ‘No, I don’t think so there is any involvement of any foreign organisation like al-Qaeda or other terror groups. This is the handiwork of our home-grown elements like Jamaat who have been trying to create problems in our country for last few years.’8

Regarding the killing of bloggers in Bangladesh, the country’s initial suspicion rests on local militant groups. Bangladesh recently banned a group called Ansarullah but Kamal (ABT), which according to investigators is responsible for murders of bloggers in the country. There prevails suspicion about this group’s connection with al-Qaeda. What demands attention is that local elements were responsible for the reported murders. In other words, foreign militants did not enter the country to target persons on their hit list. Now, it is a matter of speculation whether the local militant group ABT is linked with al-Qaeda or not.

There is a view that ABT is an ‘al-Qaeda-inspired Islamic extremist group in Bangladesh that started its activities during 2007 as the Jama’atul Muslemin.’ This has been expressed by the international security think tank Terrorism Research and Analysis Consortium (TRAC). It also states that the group was funded by different NGOs and it ceased to operate when funding ended but resurfaced during 2013 as ABT. Interestingly, ABT is assumed to be ‘inspired’ by al-Qaeda. This does not refer to ABT having any direct, strong or weak linkage or any kind of association with al-Qaeda. A group may be inspired by another without ever being in contact with it.

Bangladesh, it may be noted, has been taking fairly strictly action against organisations and people indulging in extremist behaviour. The country has, so far, banned six militant and extremist outfits, including ABT. The other five are Jamaa’tul Mujaheedin Bangladesh (JMB), Jagrata Muslim Janata Bangladesh (JMJB), Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami, Bangladesh (HuJI), Shahadat-e Al-Hikma, and Hizb-ut Tahrir. Four of these were banned in 2005. Hizb-ut Tahrir was outlawed in 2009 for preaching extremism. The key leaders of JMB Shaikh Abdur Rahman and Siddiqul Islam ‘Bangla Bhai’ were hanged for killing a judge in a bomb attack.9

‘Politicians, journalists and analysts seem to be busy encashing dividends from imaginary and exaggerated terrorist threats from al-Qaeda and other Islamist terror outfits,’ according to academician Taj Hashmi. In his opinion, the so-called claim made by AQIS about being responsible for murders of bloggers in Bangladesh may not be ‘authentic’ and ‘some vested interest group might have produced the video to get some dividends by raising a false alarm about al-Qaeda’s presence in Bangladesh.’ In Hashmi’s analysis, ‘If the latest AQIS video was another political ploy or a false flag operation, then it has also failed miserably. Not only a U.S.- based Search for International Terrorist Entities (SITE) – a private intelligence group – has rejected the AQIS claim that al-Qaeda was behind the killing of Avijit Roy, but various intelligence agencies and media in Bangladesh have also rejected the claim as far fetched.’ Specifically referring to blogger Roy’s murder in Bangladesh, Hashmi points out, ‘Avijit Roy could be a prime target for some fanatic groups or individuals in Bangladesh, but he was never a prime al-Qaeda target for assassination. Al-Qaeda and mega terrorist groups believe in mass killing or assassination of VIPs for drawing global attention to their cause.’10

Al-Qaeda and Indian Muslims

The prospects of al-Qaeda spreading itself in the subcontinent hit headlines last year, in September, following the release of a video in which the militant group leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, announced his decision to open a branch in India.11 Though India has been on alert over possible threats from al-Qaeda and other militant groups, prospects of the former gaining any strength in this country have been dismissed as nonexistent. ‘The idea that Ayman al-Zawahiri is going to open a branch of al-Qaeda in India is just crazy. Yes, there are some jihadi elements in India, but there’s no evidence that al-Qaeda has a presence in the country,’ was immediate reaction of Peter Bergen, an American expert on counterterrorism. Describing his video as ‘boring’, Bergen said, ‘It’s an attempt by Zawahiri to have people like us discuss him, because he’s been out of the limelight for so long, it’s all been about ISIS in Iraq and Syria and al-Qaeda is very conscious that they’re yesterday’s story.’12

Though Zawahiri’s announcement earned him substantial media coverage, there is no doubt that it was devoid of credibility as well as legitimacy. The hype raised about India being on alert following his announcement was also hollow. In fact, India has continuously been on alert regarding prospects of various militant groups’ entry into this country. India does not need announcements made by al-Qaeda leaders and other such groups to be on alert regarding their intentions. What demands attention is that Zawahiri’s announcement failed to stir Indian Muslims even marginally or nominally. This is not surprising as the majority of Indian Muslims are not even aware of such militant leaders and their groups’ existence in other countries. A large percentage of Indian Muslims who are conscious of their presence are least interested in being associated with them. Not surprisingly, most Muslim organisations in India openly rejected Zawahiri’s call and said that they don’t want foreign terrorist outfits’ interference in their internal matters.

Indirectly, this also proves this militant leader’s concern about his group lacking supporters in India. If the group really had active members in India, he would probably have refrained from issuing such an announcement. He would have probably preferred carrying on his task quietly. Giving it publicity is equivalent to setting Indian defence and security forces on alert against the activities of this and similar militant groups. A militant leader seriously concerned about attracting Indian Muslims to his group is not expected to lay a trap for his own agents being caught in their attempt to open a wing in India.

Zawahiri was probably least concerned about his video having put India on alert. If he were, there would not have been any video of his socalled aim to open a branch of his militant group in a strong and alert country. Without such a daring video, the militant leader would not have earned so much publicity across the world. This probably was his key mission – earn publicity, receive media coverage and political as well as diplomatic attention and remain in the limelight for some time. Had the video focused on opening more branches of his militant group in Afghanistan or Pakistan, it probably would not have received much attention.

Chances of any international militant group, with or without a religious label, succeeding in India are extremely limited. Geographically, area-wise, India is the seventh-largest country in the world and the secondmost populated. Socially, India is home to most major religions of the world. It has the second-largest population of Muslims in the world, who form about 15 per cent of India’s population. The population of Indian Muslims is too large, diverse and widespread in the country to be easily influenced by a terrorist or extremist external group.

If Indian Muslims were geographically concentrated in a few pockets and if their community could be labelled as united, without any major differences, the situation may have been different. Differences and certain divisions within Indian Muslims are to a degree also responsible for their being devoid of any common political party and of any person or group regarded as representative of the entire Indian Muslim community. Cultural differences, including commonly spoken languages and common way of dressing, as well as political leanings among Indian Muslims vary remarkably from region to region. In addition, differences within Indian Muslims of groups, caste and class cannot also be overlooked. These include their being viewed as Sunni or Shia, as well as groups such as Syed, Sheikh and Pathan, and also their professional and economic status. The importance of these differences is marked by their being given great importance to this day by Indian Muslim families while deliberating on matrimonial relations.

Besides, religious freedom allowed in India as a part of its secular system, together with its democratic, constitutional, cultural and historical roots, leaves little scope for terrorism with religious labels to progress here. In India’s capital city, within a range of a few kilometres, it is not surprising to come across several places of worship representing different communities, including Muslims, Christians, Hindus and Sikhs. There is thus nothing surprising about Indian Muslims having unintentionally or deliberately ignored the militant leader’s call for their support. Their approach has probably compelled international experts and critics on counterterrorism to regard his idea of opening a branch in India as ‘crazy’.

Just as Zawahiri’s primary purpose behind the video release of his announcement of opening a branch in the subcontinent was gaining publicity, the same motive may have prompted AQIS to release a video this May regarding its ‘activities’.

Al-Qaeda Weakened by ISIS

Globally, al-Qaeda has ceased to have as much significance as has been gained by the militant group ISIS. Abu Muhammad al-Maqdisi, an influential jihadi scholar recently said that ‘al-Qaida leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, is cut off from his commanders and keeping the group afloat through little more than appeals to loyalty.’13 Senior associates of al-Qaeda, al-Maqdisi and Abu Qatada, the radical Jordanian preacher deported from the UK in 2013, have admitted that ISIS has been winning the ground and propaganda war since it split. In other words, according to its own members, al- Qaeda has ‘collapsed’ under the weight of ISIS’s growing power sapping its fighters, money and territory.14

The al-Qaeda, reportedly, ‘around the Middle East has been drained of recruits and money after losing territory and prestige to its former subordinate division,’ (that is, ISIS). Earlier, a branch of al-Qaeda in the Middle East, ISIS was exocommunicated from the network in 2014. Since then, ISIS has expanded globally with its ‘network of affiliates and branches’, reportedly stretching from Afghanistan to West Africa. In the sixth edition of their official English-language publication, Dabiq, ISIS leaders have described al-Qaeda as a ‘drowned entity’. They have also declared that they will not tolerate any other jihadi group where they are operating. ISIS has claimed that al-Qaeda had been reduced to ‘a raging bull stumbling about . . . a drowning entity struggling to breathe in deep water as it is exhausted and fatigued by tiredness and the struggle in the water.’15

Undeniably, the split between ISIS and al-Qaeda has been dismissed by some critics as their internal feud. Perhaps, if the split could be viewed only as an intra-group matter, ISIS would not have dismissed al- Qaeda’s present stature so strongly in its propaganda publication, Dabiq.

Al-Qaeda has been interested in gaining support in the subcontinent for quite sometime. Over the past few years, messages from al-Qaeda leaders have referred to events in the subcontinent, including India, Bangladesh, Burma and Pakistan. The 117-page online magazine of al- Qaeda, Resurgence, was released on 19 October 2014. The magazine’s ‘in focus’ section gives relevant highlights from throughout the Indian subcontinent, potraying ‘Muslims as being under siege in Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and Burma.’16

In Thomas Joscelyn’s opinion, AQIS is not merely a reaction to the rise of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. He has pointed out that ‘al- Qaeda has been attempting to woo Muslims across the Indian subcontinent for years. Ayman al-Zawahiri and other al-Qaeda leaders have repeatedly tried to position the terrorist organization as the vanguard of Muslims throughout the region. They are attempting to incite the populace against their local governments, which are allegedly puppets of the West.’17 Certainly, Joscelyn has made a valid point about al-Qaeda trying to ‘woo Muslims’ in the area for years. What needs to be asserted is that till date, al-Qaeda’s attempts in this direction have been confined to the status of being only attempts. The attempts cannot yet be labelled as signs of al-Qaeda having succeeded in its ventures in this area. This only supports the point of Muslims, particularly Indian, having chosen not to be lured by al-Qaeda.

Conclusion

At present, at least the governments of India and Bangladesh do not seem too convinced about a strong presence of al-Qaeda in either or both countries. This is supported by the state visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Bangladesh (6–7 June 2015) around a month after the video was released in which AQIS claimed responsibility for murders of bloggers in Bangladesh. The visit has been hailed as a successful one.

Certainly, it is as yet too early to dismiss al-Qaeda as a totally weak organisation. At the same time, it cannot be ignored that al-Qaeda leaders are becoming increasingly conscious of their losing support and their declining strength. The latter point is supported by al-Qaeda leader deliberating on options to open a branch in the Indian subcontinent through a video released last year. Considering the chaos and turmoil that several Middle Eastern nations are facing in the present period, there is no lack of opportunities for militant elements to exploit the same for their benefits. If al-Qaeda still remained a strong force in the Middle East, it may not have turned towards the Indian subcontinent. But al-Qaeda’s intentions have hardly been welcomed either in India or in Bangladesh.