The Chinese vision of Sino-Pak strategic partnership : III

By Prof. Priyadarshi Mukherji

Issue Vol 25.3 Jul-Sep2010 | Date : 30 May , 2011

Wu Yongnian also cites some contradictions and problems in Sino-Pak relations13. The following five aspects have the potential of damaging bilateral ties if not properly addressed to:

The opening up of the Sino-Pak “trade and energy resource” corridor assumes an immeasurably favourable significance in developing the economy of both countries. Pakistans deepwater harbour at Gwadar overlooks the Indian Ocean in the south, and faces the Arabian Sea and Red Sea in the west

Due to the backwardness of the Pakistani economy, and science and technology, there are very less complementarities between China and Pakistan in the economic domain. In the long term, the economic and trade imbalance do not match with the good political relations between the two countries. Pak export to China occupies only 0.08 percent of China’s volume of import, while China’s export to Pakistan occupies only 0.26 percent of the latter’s total volume of import. In 2004, China’s trade surplus to Pakistan exceeded US$ 1800 million. The economic cooperation is mainly restricted to China’s technological export and economic aid, and also contractual projects of Chinese companies in Pakistan.
The unique geopolitical features of Pakistan as well as the stable Sino-Pak and “China-India-Pakistan” trilateral relations have been a challenge against the unilateral Asia-Pacific strategy of the US. The US is constantly watching the Sino-Pak relations. It feels worried at the “all weather” friendly ties between China and Pakistan, and tries to search for a breaching gap in their relations. The present US aid policy to Pakistan in economic and military terms can well undermine the Sino-Pak relations. This can be used in reaching a certain strategic objective in the US-Pak relations. Although it is said that Sino-Pak ties are unbreakable, yet in order to ensure a strategic balance in the South Asian and the Asia Pacific regions, China not only needs to cherish the present ties with Pakistan, but also needs to heed nurturing of the Sino-Pak ties in future. It also needs to promote a favourable path of development for Indo-Pak relations. A peaceful and friendly atmosphere around China becomes congenial for the country’s economic development. If a triangular strategic partnership evolves between India, Pakistan and the US, then that would have adverse effect on China’s peripheral security. On the other hand, a trilateral tie between China, India and the US may create in Pakistan a sense of suspicion and misunderstanding. China and Pakistan need to arrive at a common understanding through in-depth discussions.
The socio-political order is still not stable in Pakistan. The revival of religious extremist forces and some terrorist groups launching attack against the Chinese project technicians have affected the smooth operation of the Chinese construction projects in Pakistan. Chinese engineers were forced to abandon certain projects and leave for home. Besides, some Pakistani Muslims out of their religious fervour have sympathized with the “East Turkistan” separatists within the Chinese territory. This can easily cause misunderstanding in China. This would be a disservice to the people-to-people exchanges and links between China and Pakistan.
China and Pakistan despite being neighbours, are faced with limitations caused by the topography, problem in air link, the vast distance in maritime link and the inconvenience in communication over land. The people-to-people contacts also get restricted. Two nations with different ethnicity when faced with lack of exchanges and links will have no benefit in terms of amity and understanding. According to statistics, there are 50,000 Pakistanis, mostly businessmen, tourists, service sector employees, students and permanent residents, travel annually to China. Whereas there are only 10,000 Chinese who annually visit Pakistan, out of which only around 200 travel to Pakistan on sightseeing tour. This situation is far insufficient for further strengthening Sino-Pak relations.
The opening up of the Sino-Pak “trade and energy resource” corridor assumes an immeasurably favourable significance in developing the economy of both countries. Pakistan’s deepwater harbour at Gwadar overlooks the Indian Ocean in the south, and faces the Arabian Sea and Red Sea in the west. It is close to Iran in the north, located 400 km away from the Strait of Hormuz. Situated 500 km from Pakistan’s biggest economically developed port city of Karachi, the geographical location of Gwadar is extremely advantageous. President Musharraf’s proposal of setting up this corridor was envisaged on the basis of a long-term plan for Sino-Pak scientific research projects. Oil pipelines laid from Gwadar port would enter Xinjiang in China through the northern region of Quetta. It is also close to the Central Asian pipeline. Besides, if a railway line is laid between Quetta and Gwadar, then this would not only be a convenient maritime outlet for China, it would also be a vital overland communication line between China and Pakistan. Its importance is self-evident. However, due to the geographic and human environmental peculiarities of this region, and also due to the complicated topography and extremely unpredictable weather conditions, scientists and technicians in both China and Pakistan need to explore in detail the feasibility of such a project.

All these observations and viewpoints made by Chinese military strategists, intelligence personnel in the garb of academics, researchers or experts at different think-tanks in China—have contributed significantly to decode the mindset of the Chinese state in terms of its regional strategy and geopolitical game plan in South Asia. This has, no doubt, great implications for India and its regional aspirations. It is up to the Indian government to take proper and timely cognizance of all such developments taking place between China and Pakistan, and chalk out its own developmental as well as defence strategies before long.

`Reference`

http://bbs.tiexue.net/post2_3113695_1.html
http://club.china.com/data/thread/10132705/65/07/3_1.html
http://forum.china.com.cn/viewthread.php?tid=264437&agMode=1&com.trs.idm.gSessionId =6B80CF87532FD8619B52D9B03418A2AE
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Wu Yongnian, Daxiang, Niuche, Xinpian de Gongming he Shenwu (The Resonance and Celestial Dance of the Elephant, Bullock-cart and Computer-chip), Yinchuan: Ningxia People’s Press, 2009.

`Notes`

http://bbs.tiexue.net/post2_3113695_1.html
http://www.huaxia.com/xw/gdxw/2009/05/1436712.html
http://forum.china.com.cn/viewthread.php?tid=491030
http://www.wikimir.com/asif-ali-zardari
http://www.pakistantalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6590
http://news.qq.com/a/20090226/000618.htm
http://www.energytribune.com/articles.cfm?aid= 3586
http://club.china.com/data/thread/1013/2705/65/07/3_1.html
http://forum.china.com.cn/viewthread.php?tid=264437&agMode=1&com.trs.idm.gSessionId =6B80CF87532FD8619B52D9B03418A2AE
http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/feature/pok-leaders-justify-indias-objection-to-chinese-projects_100260689.html
http://www.0516sc.com/bbs/dispbbs.asp? BoardID=62&ID=114111
Wu, pp. 220–222.
Wu, pp. 222–223.