Indian Defence Review

The cycle of violence seems unending in Manipur, no matter how many Para Military and Army companies are pushed into the troubled state. Article 355 is already in place, giving the central government complete control of state law and order. This move is one step short of enforcing Article 356 on the state, which means a President’s rule. That is unlikely to happen as Manipur is BJP ruled state.

The central government and the state government are at a loss of thought on actions to be taken to reverse the violent trend. Is making another state for the Kuki-Zomis and Nagas in the Hills of Manipur an answer, or will such a move further impinge upon national security? This article examines the issues that besiege Manipur and, consequently, the Indian Union.

Origins of the Problem

Manipur is a border state of India in the northeast and shares a long border with Myanmar in its east. Refer to the map given above. By now, it is common knowledge that the recent problem in Manipur is about coexistence between the majority group and minority tribes. The majority population group, the Meitei, comprises Hindus residing in the Imphal valley. Surrounding the valley are the hills of Manipur, occupied by hill tribes consisting of the Nagas and the Kuki-Zomis. These hill tribes have different ethnicity from Meitei and are practising Christianity.

The Kuki-Zomi and Naga tribes have the status of Scheduled Tribes, thus giving them certain privileges, such as land, culture and reservations in government jobs and educational institutions. The Meiteis are not part of the Schedule Tribe list. The demographic distribution of Manipur as per the 2011 census is Hindus: 41.39 %, Christians: 41.29%, Muslims: 8.4%, Sanamahi 7.8% (a sun god worshipping sect) and others:1%. The Meiteis have been the ruling class and have enjoyed power in Imphal. They also occupy a chunk of the government jobs in the state.

Manipur has a history of insurgency and violence. The first known insurgent group is from the Meitei group, the UNLF (United National Liberation Front), founded in 1964, which wanted independence from India. Then came the PREPAK (People Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak) andthe PLA (People’s Liberation Army). All wanted independence from India. There was internal strife amongst the Meitei groups as also inter-tribal rivalry.

Despite Manipur getting statehood in 1972, violence in Manipur did not abate. The increase in violence led to the declaration of Manipur as a disturbed area from 1980 to 2004. Consequently, Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) was put in place.

Over a period of time, due to the improved situation in the state, the provisions of the Disturbed Area Act have been removed from districts which have shown the absence of violence. As on 01 Apr 2022, the disturbed area tag was removed from 15 Police Stations’ jurisdiction, and AFSPA from 19 Police stations in Manipur, thus, making most of Manipur free of special provisions imposed by the central government.

As peace returned after 2012, the state governments became more popular. The Centre, too, started giving more attention to the North East in continuation to its ‘Look East’ policy. Violence gave way to a more peaceful way of showing dissent and discontent. More and more insurgent groups came over the ground. Stray violent incidents sometimes marred the peace, but the graph showed a gradual downward trend.

Deep seated rivalry amongst the ethnic groups of Manipur is coming to the fore. Furthermore, forces inimical to the state are taking advantage. The BJP government is in the majority, yet rules with the support of seven Hill District elected MLAs who belong to the NPP (National People’s Party). Since the BJP is projected as the Hindu party, the hill districts oppose them. They proclaim that they have lost trust in the ruling party to protect minority interests. They are demanding a separate state/ administered region for the hill tribes. BJP’s emergence in the state is a late phenomenon.

Before 2017 Manipur was governed by Indian National Congress (INC). Congress too was facing similar problems. BJP came to power in Manipur on a developmental agenda and on promises to end the 2016 economic blockade by Naga United Council (NUC). They had hoped to placate the Nagas and the Kukis both.

The present chief minister, a Meitei himself, who beat the anti-incumbency vote in 2022, has been unable to deliver on his promises. It is a failure of his administrative policies. E.g., The Manipur government issued an order for the eviction of people from the forests who do not have legal holdings of the land. The eviction order met with massive opposition from the hill districts asking the government to refrain from imposing it.

To add fuel the fire, the High Court in Imphal asked the Manipur government to take up with the central government a case for granting the status of ‘Schedule Tribe’ for the Meiteis. The clashes in Manipur resulted from these issues for which the state government was responsible. During an anti-encroachment rally by the All Tribal Students Union Manipur, violence broke out in the southern town of Churachandpur, spiralling out of control.

Since the disturbances in Manipur, the Chief Minister has been shuttling up and down to Delhi to seek the central government’s help, he has called for an all-party meeting which has met with partial success. What needs to be debated is: whether it was a failure of administrative capability or a failure of his intent. Because if it is the latter, Manipur, it will once again slip back into trouble state status.

Violence will become the ultimate outcome unless all sides decide to find a solution. There is no right or wrong once distrust engulfs the two opposing parties. Neither side is willing to give up their point of view. The Meitei feel that since there is no restriction on buying land in the Valley, the influx of Nagas and Kuki-Zomis would engulf them. Hence, they demand the Schedule Tribe status, as is given to the hill tribes, for themselves. The Nagas and Kukis opine that Meiteis are in the majority and enjoy power in Imphal; why do they need reservations? Inimical elements colour it with religious identity and fill social media and other means with negative propaganda.

Security Implications

Security in the Northeast cannot be looked at in isolation from any particular state. The history of the North East from the Indian independence is full of strife and insurgent movements. There is an insurgency in all seven states of the northeast. The reasons can be traced to the British, who gave these states the status of ‘Excluded Areas’, giving them a belief that they were not inclusive of the Indian identity.

When the British left India, these areas expected to get autonomous status, if not complete independence. Nothing like that happened, and they were all made inclusive of the Indian Union. This inclusion caused heartburn in many politicians and activists in these states. They demanded independence, and when it was not forthcoming, they resorted to violence to secure their political aims. Consequent to the British legacy, insurgent groups in all seven states asked for either independence or autonomy. The oldest amongst them are the Naga insurgent groups. Mr Phizo formed the NNC (Naga National Council) in 1946, even before Indian independence.

At one time, 70 big and small rebel groups were active across the seven sister states. Out of the seven states, three states: Meghalaya, Assam, and Tripura border Bangladesh, and three border Myanmar while one, Mizoram has borders with both Bangladesh and Myanmar. Today a mere 15 are involved in insurgent activities. Understanding the role of the two neighbouring countries named above is essential. When 15 out of the 70-odd groups were banned by the government of India, declaring them unlawful or terrorist organisations, their cadres took shelter in bases in either Myanmar or Bangladesh or both. Noteworthy was the ability of the insurgent groups operating in these states to align with each other against a common enemy: the Indian state and the Indian security forces. This alignment resulted in sharing each other’s bases, providing information and the ability to operate in each other’s areas, thus making quick getaways after strikes.

While the ULFA (United Liberation Front of Asom) could operate from Arunachal Pradesh to bases in Bangladesh, NSCN- Issac Muivah and Khaplang (National Socialist Council for Nagaland -IM &K) operated seamlessly from North Sagaing district in Myanmar through the border across Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura into Bangladesh. They strongly connected with the PLA (People Liberation Army) and the UNLF (United National Liberation Front), both Manipur-based groups. For the sake of brevity of the article, the bases and the insurgent groups operating from Bangladesh will not be discussed any further. Because the ULFA is no more a force, and its leaders are in Jail. So is the case with insurgent groups in Meghalaya and Tripura. Mozoram was the first to renounce insurgency.

By 2017 it was declared by the Border Security Forces of both nations; there was no more presence of Indian insurgent groups inside Bangladesh. This victory is due to India’s excellent relations with the Bangladesh government under Sheikh Hasina Wazed in the last ten years.

Map of Myanmar showing the regions bordering India’s North East (Click to enlarge)

The security concerns for all states bordering Myanmar remain a cause for worry, despite India’s attempt to improve ties with Myanmar. Since 2010 India has improved its ties with Myanmar, the military government or the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi. These efforts led to cooperation between the two militaries, and pressure from both sides resulted in the insurgent groups either dissipating or going deeper inside Myanmar. One of the examples of the joint operation was ‘Operation Sunrise’ in 2015. It was reflected in reducing violent incidence in border states from 2012 onwards. (Refer to Table 1 at the end of the article) This decline was attributed to better cooperation between the two militaries of India and Myanmar.

The open border with Myanmar (16 Km of the border between the two countries was open and allowed free access to the population on either side. This limit now stands annulled due to the problems in Myanmar) has contributed to the ethnic strife in all the border states in India which border Myanmar.

The problems persisted as persecution of minorities in Myanmar brought an influx of refugees into India. The reverse was also true of migration from India during times of strife. The civil population, caught between the crossfire of the security forces and the insurgent groups, found shelter in safe camps across the borders. It is alleged that the influx of refugees has changed the demographic structure in the hill districts in India, especially after the military coup in Myanmar in 2021. Since then, many refugees have been alleged to have crossed the border into India and Bangladesh. Most of them have found shelter in the hill districts. This migration has caused the current strife in Manipur.

The Meitei allege that the new refugees, under pressure from the Kuki-Zomis and Nagas of the hill district, are encroaching on their land in the valley and the forests. The land, therefore, has become the prime reason for the dispute. They also allege that on the encroached land thrives crops of poppy which are used to make drugs.

However, the recent military coup in February 2021 in Myanmar has resulted in a setback. Border management has suffered as civil war rages inside Myanmar. Many new Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAO’s) have surfaced to fight the Myanmar military junta (Tatmadaw). These are now called People’s Defence Forces (PDF’s). The Tatmadaw is stretched and fatigued leaving little space to fight the insurgency on their border or destroy camps existing on Myanmar’s soil near the Indian border.

Couple this with the fact that there is a common ethnic bond between the Kuki-Zomi and Naga tribes in Myanmar and those in India; any retaliation against these ethnic tribes in Myanmar sends hordes of refugees into the Indian hill states of Nagaland and Manipur. When insurgency was at its zenith, most Manipur-based groups had their bases close to the Manipur border inside Myanmar in South Saigaing districts primarily because connectivity and infrastructure at the Manipur border were better than in other places. If the current violence in Manipur has escalated, an outside hand cannot be ruled out. This could have come from the old cadres of the Manipuri insurgents’ groups in Myanmar, seeking action in Manipur to up the ante.

Since the violence also has an ethnic angle, the chances that some of these elements belong to the Kuki-Zomi or Naga insurgent groups cannot be ruled out. Time and again, as peace returns to the strife-torn state, a new violent incident comes to light, and the perpetrators are unknown entities.

There are equal numbers of Meitei-dominated rebel groups (PLA, UNLF, PREPAK (P)) as there are Kuki-Zomi and Naga groups (KUKI-ZOMI National Front, Manipur Naga Revolutionary Front (MNRF)) rebel groups in Manipur. Earlier, they had shared an amicable equation with each other and the NSCN (IM & K) groups. It is hard to guess their current orientation towards the latest violence in Manipur.

There would be no reason to believe that the insurgent groups would start an ethnic war in Manipur now. With insurgency ebbing in the region, their first priority would be regrouping and preparing for a long battle with the Indian state.

Drugs Trade: The Golden Triangle

If the directions of the High Court for inclusion of Meiteis in the Schedule Tribes List was a trigger, the primary explosive was in the drive of the Manipur government to clear the illegal occupation of the Reserve Forests (RF) and the Protected Forests (PF). For long, the Manipur government has been jostling with the Hill Tribalsto vacate forest land under illegal occupation. Having given orders and multiple warnings, the government ultimately acted. The story behind the state government’s adamant stand on illegal occupation is rooted in the drug trade flourishing in North East and Manipur.

Readers may be aware of the ‘Golden Triangle’, a three-point hub in South East Asia that thrives in drug trade like opium and brown sugar. At the apex of this triangle are Myanmar, Thailand, and Laos.

Raw opium from Poppy plantations in northern Myanmar would transport mule loads of opium to transit points near the border with Thailand and Laos. From there on, the opium moved to many destinations across South East Asia and other places. Opium also flowed into India through the porous border, and it became a profitable business as many youths were frustrated due to the lack of opportunities taken to drugs. Mizoram, Manipur and Nagaland youth were the first in line and became habitual consumers.

As mentioned earlier, the border routes from Myanmar concentrated more towards Manipur due to better road infrastructure. The border town of Moreh in Manipur became the exchange hub for the drug trade. It was here in December 2021 that 500 crores of drug haul were seized from a house in Moreh by a Myanmarese drug trafficker. However, much before this seizure, due to the disturbed situation in Myanmar, the drug lords encouraged poppy production inside India on the hills of Manipur and Nagaland, where the farmers sought cash crops for sustenance. Poppy proved to be the ideal bet.

The refugees coming from Myanmar found a living in poppy cultivation in the forest areas. Most of these cultivations were illegal. It was a double whammy for Manipur authorities. It increased drug usage among its youth and led to illegal poppy cultivation. The golden triangle was getting extended into the Indian North East. Manipur from ‘Receiver’ became a ‘Producer’ of opium and brown sugar. The Churachandpur district in the southern tracts of Manipur was the worst drug-affected area. Churachandpur was where the violence started first in Manipur on 03 May 23.

Another effect of drug abuse was increased HIV cases due to infected syringes. Manipur houses 0.24% population of the country but has 8% of the total HIV cases. The BJP government of Manipur launched a ‘War on Drugs’ drive in 2018. In this fight elimination of poppy cultivation was an essential step. According to government statistics, 14,135 acres of illicit poppy cultivation were destroyed in the hills from 2017 to 2021. The seizure of forest land has to be viewed in light of this development in Manipur.

When the government’s drive took away the easy cash crop alternatives from the poppy cultivators, they opposed it, resorting to demonstration and violence. They argued that the Manipur government legislation of removing illegal occupation of forest land passed in their assembly violated the correct procedure, as it should have met the approval of the Manipur Hill Area Committee council as per the Schedule Matters of Article 371- C of the Presidential order of 1972. The war on drugs was an election promise of Chief Minister in 2017. The implementation of the promise has come to haunt him. Such a predicament of the Chief Minister indicates the complex and sensitive issues that haunt the state. It is hard to do a balancing act.

Conclusion

Manipur violence from 03 May 23 has bucked the trend of reduction in violence in the North East. It has seriously threatened the state government, the central government, and the security forces. If the history of insurgency in the state is any measure to go by, the situation is grievous now. It is on the cusp of exploding once again. It is a cauldron in which all the explosives elements are brewing simultaneously. The ethnic differences between the Meiteis and the Hill tribes: Kukis and the Nagas. The scheduled tribe status to the Meiteis, the removal of illegal occupation of forest land, the stoppage of poppy cultivation on the hills and the inability to provide an alternative to earning through cleaner cash crops.

The influx of refugees from a civil war-torn Myanmar state. The lurking presence of old insurgent groups waiting to take advantage, the refugee outflow into neighbouring states. Finally, opportunist politicians waiting to grab power by creating violence. All these are explosive elements simmering in the Manipur cauldron.

When it reaches critical mass and explodes, is anyone’s guess? It requires deft handling and concerted efforts of all parties interested in peace in Manipur to bring the temperature down. If their number is more than that inciting violence, Manipur has a hope for peace. But if this number dwindles, bad times will await this beautiful state.

Security Situation in North Eastern Region as a Whole from 2012 Onward (Click to enlarge)