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The West Misled the Public on Russia’s War Strategy, and the Results Are Starting to show in Donbass
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If you follow the western media’s coverage of the war in Ukraine, you’ll probably come to one clear conclusion: Things aren’t going to plan for Russia. If you’re embedded into the world of twitter, you’ll probably even think Moscow is losing. There’s enough reason to believe it at face value: An apparent plan to occupy Kyiv and the North of the country seemingly failed, resulting in Russia’s withdrawal, whilst Putin’s forces appear to have suffered more than expected losses and the Black Sea flagship the Moskva has been sunk. This is coupled with reporting which repeatedly assumes that Putin aspired for the war to be swift, short and painless, depicting him as miscalculating, mentally deteriorating and falling into an a quagmire of his own making.
Except that isn’t the case. Whilst it is true indeed that wars never do go according to plan, and always do surmount to unanticipated costs, it is nonetheless also a reality that the western media coverage of the conflict has been nothing short of a blatant war propaganda and psychological warfare campaign, which has coincided with a deliberate campaign to censor the other side of the story. It is ultimately preposterous to assume the media could even contemplate being impartial when given the severity of the conflict, they are under enormous social and political pressure to “take a side” and vest in what they hope to be Putin’s looming failure.
And as a result, it is no surprise that things aren’t really going as badly for Russia as people have been told. The situation in the East of Ukraine is now at a critical juncture. Russia has consolidated a huge salient hanging above Donestk Oblast from the town of Izyum, creating a gulf like pocket around Ukrainian forces below it, who also face Russian forces pushing out from Luhansk. Meanwhile, Russian has simultaneously began to push up from Zaporizhzhia oblast, looking to eventually bypass the entrenched line of Ukrainian soldiers outside of Donestk City. The goal? An overlapping pincer attack and two pronged encirclement from the North and South. If Moscow succeeds in their objectives, a huge bulk of the entire army of Ukraine stands to be trapped in this emerging pocket.
Geography is favouring the Russian advance. The Russian lines in this area are entrenched, unexposed and far beyond Ukraine’s reach, preventing them from staging the kind of counteroffensives they did on Russian forces in the North of the country. This is allowing to Moscow to continually make incremental gains without suffering large scale losses, a sign they have avoided the same mistakes they had previously made in the war. Not only that, but their positioning means they are effectively coming at Ukraine from every single direction, depriving the Ukrainian army from concentrating force in one area, as they previously done towards vulnerable Russian supply lines. This has been coupled with Russian efforts at overwhelming them with artillery fire.
The events in Donbass appear to have caught prominent western military analysts by surprise, who were otherwise quick to affirm an inevitable Russian failure. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) a known pessimist, was forced to concede on April 27th that Russia was making a “sounder pattern of operational movement” in Donbass and was even forced to admit that Ukrainian defenses in the north of the region were disorganized. Although the ISW continues to maintain that a broader Russian encirclement of the Ukrainian army won’t happen, it is difficult to see how Ukraine is going to turn the tide on this situation even with western support because they simply do not have the geographic advantage. Russia is gaining in the region every single day.
This speaks volumes about Russia’s strategy. When Moscow announced that it was withdrawing from the North and focusing on Donbass, this was marketed as a retreat and a failure, but on closer inspection it appears that the assault on this region was carefully planned in a logical sequence of preparatory steps. There is growing evidence that Russia used the previous stages of the war to prepare strategic ground for this one. Some people might have questioned: Why did Moscow not just charge into Donbass straight away? And seemingly went for Kyiv? And that’s a good question, and the answer is because with the highest concentration of Ukrainian forces there, “their best trained troops” as frequently eluded to, Russia would not have had the battlefield advantages or positions to push them back which they do now.
Before Russia proceeded with its current offensive on Donbass, it first undertaken a process of “shaping the battlefield” which involved distracting Ukraine by invading the North of the country (even if there was a hope Kyiv could be quickly encircled). As these multiple axis’ were opened, Russia then proceeded to invade from Crimea and seize Kherson oblast (to prevent a pre-emptive Ukrainian attack on the peninsula) and advanced into Zaporizhzhia (setting up a Southern launchpad). Mariupol was then encircled and cut off. These multiple fronts being opened allowed Russia to then invade Kharkiv and Luhansk Oblasts, which they then developed into a Northern flank with the capture of Izyum.
It is worth noting that at no stage of doing this did Russia attempt to storm through the fortified Ukraine lines surrounding the area of Donestk, the area which was most combat ready and long term prepared for an attack. That area remains relatively unchanged throughout the war. Instead, the bigger picture has been to outflank them from their rear from both the North and South in the view to a strategic encirclement. It is plainly obvious that Russia sees this effort as the defining battle and moment of the war and of course, so does the west, but that’s not what they’ve told their public. They’ve mislead people that these preparatory stages were in fact little more than an aborted operation to quickly seize the entire country and have shifted the goalposts from the reality that Donbass was always one of the biggest prizes.
It seems awfully strange that for a country who is “winning” the west are now severely upping their military aid and also their rhetoric in the anticipation they can make Putin fail, but little do people know such is because the tide on the battlefield is starting to turn against them. Russia suffered a lot of unanticipated losses and resistance along the way, but the narrative they are losing the war and facing defeat is waning thin. Reality is starting to come from. The west are leading Kyiv off a cliff edge by attempting to goad them into a deeper war, and the hubris manifest in the recent speech of Liz Truss is indicative that is them who are more likely to be met with political failure than Putin himself.
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13 thoughts on “The West Misled the Public on Russia’s War Strategy, and the Results Are Starting to show in Donbass”
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A Strategy for Avoiding Two-Front War | The National Interest.. See article… P
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/strategy-avoiding-two-front-war-192137
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THE GREATEST risk facing the twenty-first-century United States, short of an outright nuclear attack, is a two-front war involving its strongest military rivals, China and Russia. Such a conflict would entail a scale of national effort and risk unseen in generations, effectively pitting America against the resources of nearly half of the Eurasian landmass. It would stretch and likely exceed the current capabilities of the U.S. military, requiring great sacrifices of the American people with far-reaching consequences for U.S. influence, alliances, and prosperity. Should it escalate into a nuclear confrontation, it could possibly even imperil the country’s very existence. ”
Even if Russia wins the war, it will be a costly pyrrhic victory.
Americans will be the biggest winner in this war as they enjoy an immense opportunity to weaken Russia ( their stated goal) thereby depriving China of a strong ally in future conflicts. Because China does not help Russia, they will be fortunate that Russia remains quiet when war breaks out in SCS.
The same applies to India for border conflicts.
It sure looks like Western financial weapons have drastic and dramatic effects on this war and future wars.
The Rest of the World has suffered immeasurably from Anglo-American imperialists and war profiteers, through out history.
India now is being sweet talked, enticed and romanced to be anti Russia, and by extension, anti China.
After about 2 centuries of British colonization, India is emerging from the devastation but will India forgive, forget, and be compliant to their former tormentors??
India is on track to be the number 2 or 1 economy this century and would be a fantastic pawn to combat China and
Hindu Rusi bhai bhai.
But, most of the Rest of the World realizes that the West will not rest until all Ukrainians are killed in battle to satisfy Nato expansion which is no different than Cuba missile crisis of 1962.
It is not surprising that Zelensky and Ukraine are encouraged to battle as it is tremendously profitable for the arms manufacturers.
The West wants India and all others to suffer high food prices, and not enjoy low Russian oil prices, but endure high oil prices from pro western countries.
They are fat enough to withstand the pain, others are not as fortunate.
India and the Rest of the World are required to be subservient followers of the Western narrative.
But, India and the Rest of the World is better off if Hindi Rusi Bhai Bhai is successful.
the comments so far are a symptom of the ‘fog of war’.
No one really knows what is happening on the ground in eastern ukraine.
Eastern offensive is stalled right now Mariapoul is a ficaso it has stretched russian lines horribly as spillover there would coup in russia with it would end
Good analysis. But question remains, if Russia is satisfied with Donbass, and let’s say, even Odessa, and rest of Ukraine remains intact, with Zelenskyy or some other American stooge as President, what happens to its aim of a neutral Ukraine on its Eastern front?
Will US imperialism and NATO let this region be in peace ever?
What a rubbish article. The russians already lost this war economically, militarily but most importantly culturally. The military losses are gigantic for a small “operation” like this and a war against a much smaller country. The Indian elite, which did profit a lot from russian weapons, dirty money and very well known for it´s problem with corruption will soon see that it is much weaker than they thought. If it came to a face to face, which i hope the common and good hearted people can prevent, the neofascist militants in china, russia and india, would see relatively soon that they are much weaker than the european and american armies and logistic systems as well as extremely dependent on western know how and technology on the economic level. This pathetic neofascist ideologies of a new world order by the BRIC states and the emerging markets, who wouldn´t even be emerging without western technology has to end now!
What or who is Silksworth Post? What is the veracity of the contents? IDR is going to lose its readers because of its policy of permitting Generals with half-baked information and knowledge to write nonsense on an important issue like the present conflict.
Hmm. Sounds to me like you are the type of person who supports Biden’s new “Ministry of Truth”. You do realize that is the same mindset as the current Russian Govt, the previous USSR, and the CCP. Freedom is being able to speak your mind whether others “feel” like it’s true or not. That same freedom allows you to chose to read what you want, research what you read, and confirm whether or not you want to believe it. Those who believe in controlling others thoughts, such as yourself, if you are manipulated by what you read, whether it is 100% truth or not, that is completely and solely on you. You really may need some self reflection if you fall into that category.
You seem to be the author; you sound offended! There’s a freedom to also criticize nonsense being written. Because the nonsense dished out in this platform has the potential for moulding public opinion. As an Indian I expect some standard and unbiased and dispassionate views, not Kremlin’s propaganda passing off as gospel.
As usual, Western propaganda is overwhelming, to say the least. There’s very little factual reporting available. It does appear that the Russians have planned the encirclement of Ukrainian forces in the Donbass region, leaving them little option – surrender or commit harakiri by fighting to the last man. The last option would be laying to waste the youth and not so young of the Ukrainian forces. This should be avoided. The West is out to beggar Russia by forcing a prolonged war and Ukraine is the guinea pig! Sad commentary on Western ‘values’.
Did US invite Russia to invade? Don’t you guys read history of the conflict before penning comments. Have you verified the veracity of the contents of the post? IDR has become a propaganda site.
Ukraine never had a chance. Bereft of US-NATO hype, Russia is going according to plan. I published this in great detail in the opening days of reclamation of Ukraine when the West was gloating over Russia’s retreat from Kiev. Before targeting its primary target of Eastern Ukraine, Moscow attacked Kyiv and places in Western Ukraine to clear the US seventh training division, British Intelligence units, Air Combat training units, Arms and Ammunition silos, and other entrenched NATO facilities. It also served as a feint to tie down Ukrainian forces and decimate them prior to addressing Russia’s primary long term objectives which is to remove US and NATO installations such as the Seventh Training Division, British Intelligence installations, Bio Weapons Labs, Weapons Silos and Mercenary bases and then liberate Donetsk and Luhansk while establishing viable land bridges to Crimea and Transnistria to protect the Russian speaking populations from further persecution by US backed Nazis.:It was, of course, the Nazis under guidance from US and British personnel who staged the “war crimes”: in Bucha and elsewhere to foment International hatred for Russia, just as the Azov Battalion which still carries Hitler’s Hakencruz and Sowilo of its helmets to signal their descent from the Galician Waffen SS, brought down MH -17 for the Obama-Biden-Hilary regime to blame on Russia to catalyze sanction on Russia by a reluctant Europe. Biden called Putin a murderer and refused the “No Aggression” pact to use Ukraine as a sacrificial pawn to unite a US and NATO he himself had fractured behind this decrepit “War Time President” and sell weapons to Europe and claim final victory over Russia after the Thirty year siege of Russia begun by Madeline Lewinsky Clinton in 1992. after the collapse of Marxism and the Societ Union in order to keep NATO, the military Industrial Complex, and the pulp fiction industry (including CIA, FBI, , MI 6, MI 5,etc) ticking.
You are no better than Russia’s apologist or mouthpiece!
https://www-thenationalnews-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.thenationalnews.com/world/europe/2022/04/27/ukraine-special-forces-wreak-havoc-behind-russian-lines/?outputType=amp&d=233