Indian Defence Review

On October 12th, just 5 days after the horrific attack by Hamas that claimed the lives of over 1,200 people, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz gave a speech in the Bundestag that explained in unequivocal terms whose side Germany would be on. “The safety in Israel and for Israel must be restored, and that is why Israel must have the capacity to defend itself. At the moment there is only one place for Germany, the place, side by side with Israel. This is what we mean when we say the security of Israel is Germany’s raison d’etre.”

These words are part of an indisputable diplomatic tradition of securing Germany’s position as a friend and ally of Israel: former Chancellor Angela Merkel already described German support for Israel as a “Staatsräson” (reason of state) during a visit to the country back in 2008.

Of course, German altruism to the Jewish state is not solely based on unilateral moral responsibility, but highly integrated bilateral relations that have rendered the two states profoundly interdependent in many industrial sectors. Indeed, by the beginning of November, the German government had already nearly 303 million euros’ ($323 million) worth of defence equipment to Israel, which is more than 10 times the exports of the previous year, thereby materialising Germany’s commitment to prevent any repetition of the horrors of 7 October.  

But in the current climate, Germany’s intransigent support for Israel could compromise relations with other countries, especially in the Middle East. Some see the lack of flexibility on the part of German leaders when it comes to Israel as a geopolitical faux pas, restricting Germany’s ability to forge amicable diplomatic ties with other Gulf regions that would go some way to building lasting peace in the region.

Interdependence in defence

Germany’s domestic policy of Vergangenheitsbewältigung, or coming to terms with its past, has logically led to a rapprochement with the state of Israel, a state of affairs that has for years led to concrete industrial collaboration. This military-industrial bilateralism has benefitted both sides both economically and in terms of defence capabilities, with each side providing the other with military equipment designed to reinforce their mutual ability to defend their borders at a time of widespread geopolitical instability.

This summer, for example, the Israeli Defence Ministry agreed to its largest-ever defence deal by securing a tender for the provision of “Arrow 3”, a sophisticated missile defence system to Germany worth $3.5 billion. Germany has for some time been lobbying European countries for a coordinated air defence system to serve as a buffer to an aberrant Russia in the East and ended up placing its trust in Israel, to the detriment of equally close allies. 

 “We value the opportunity to share our capabilities with the partners and allies of the state of Israel,” said Boaz Levy, chief executive of state-owned Israel Aerospace Industries, the main developer of the Arrow system. “Within the framework of this agreement, we further deepen our security ties between Israel and Germany.” 

Other examples include the deal signed between Israeli firm Rafael Advanced Defence Systems and the German Army to sell Spike missiles and launchers through a joint venture (JV), or plans for the Bundeswehr to replace its fleet of MARS II rocket artillery systems that were sent to Ukraine with Israeli-made mobile multiple rocket launchers, developed by Elbit Systems.  

For Israeli, the special relationship the two states enjoy in the arena of defence has led to deep collaboration in the naval sphere. Israel, whose navy once depended on ex-Royal Navy submarines, now boasts one of the most advanced navies in the world, in no small part thanks to its partnership with Germany and the Howaldtswerke-Deutsche Werft (HDW) firm in Kiel, part of then ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) group.

It was announced by the Israeli Defence Ministry in January 2022 that TKMS would be building three advanced submarines for the Israeli Navy in a deal worth €3 billion ($3.4 billion). In the context of the wider geopolitical tussle in the Middle East, it is important to note that these are very modern submarines that offer Israel the possibility of “mini” second-strike via potentially nuclear-armed cruise missiles – critical in the deterrence against Iran. Israel’s Dolphin-I and Dolphin-II class submarines are already equipped with torpedoes and cruise missiles. The new vessels are fitted Vertical Launch Systems (VLS) that would mean a significant leap in the capabilities of the Israeli Navy.

Israel is set to receive its third German-built Dolphin-II class submarine this year, with three more to follow within nine years following the aforementioned deal signed in January last year. 

Germany’s tricky relations with states who oppose Israel

Germany’s absolute fidelity to the state of Israel and its unambiguous support in military terms has logically led to it locking horns with other regional players, many of whom have denounced the Israeli invasion of Gaza and many of whom have expressed explicit support for Hamas and the Palestinian cause. 

What is more ambiguous, though, is Germany’s relations with these other regional players, with the situation varying from one state to another. Turkey, for example, has become thorn in the side of German efforts to ensure Israeli security, not least due to the huge Turkish diaspora in Germany itself. Concerns about the radicalisation of the Turkish community in Germany are growing since the visit of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the end of November. “So far, one mainly saw people of Arab descent on the streets. I fear that Erdogan, with his anti-Israeli rhetoric, is also adding fuel to the fire in Germany and driving his supporters to the streets,” explained Burak Copur, a political scientist born in Ankara who teaches at IU International University in Essen. 

Erdogan’s visit was criticised by members of the Bundestag and members of the German Jewish community. “Anyone who not only denies the existence of Israel but actively fights against it should not be a partner for German politics,” exclaimed the President of the Central Council of Jews in Germany, Josef Schuster. Diplomatic tensions have led to Germany blocking Turkish attempts to purchase a fleet of Eurofighter jets for the Turkish Air Force, an example of Germany putting its money where its mouth is.

Foreign affairs expert Sevim Dagdelen urged Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) to rescind the invitation to the president prior to the visit. “Erdogan’s visit and reception in Germany come at an inopportune time,” said the Bundestag member. The German government should not “roll out the red carpet for Erdogan while the Turkish head of state whitewashes the terrorist organization Hamas and denies Israel’s right to exist,” Dagdelen said. She added that “militant Islamism” should not be “courted out of misguided consideration.”

But the situation is less clear cut Gulf states. Many have refrained for more than a  rhetorical denunciation of Israel’s attacks on Gaza.  There has been some talk of a halt to the Abraham Accords which for some states – UAE and Bahrain among others – normalised relations with Israel, but these calls have been somewhat tentative.

Bilateral relations between Germany and Qatar, however, are more ambiguous. The Germans’ courting of the Qataris seems out of line with their Staatsräson policy and defence of Israel’s right to exist. Qatar, of course, is currently hosting the Hamas leadership, and trying to play the role of diplomatic mediator as tempers flare. Germany is a key supplier of military hardware to Qatar, notably Leopard 2 tanks and PzH2000 howitzers. While it is inconceivable that these could be used by Hamas, it is surprising, at least from a symbolic point of view, that Germany has not expressed any reservations about Qatar’s policy of supporting the terrorist group, or even announced a pause in the supply of equipment or logistical support to the country.

Indeed, the German position seems to somewhat lethargic. The Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Bundestag, Michael Roth (SPD), even defended Chancellor Olaf Scholz against criticism for receiving the Emir of Qatar, Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, giving some insight into Germany’s approach. “I might say it a bit exaggerated: In this situation, one must also sit down with the devil to prevent a worse situation,” Roth told the TV channel “Welt”. The SPD foreign policy expert also referred to crisis diplomacy and alliances of the USA in the region. Qatar has financially supported Hamas, just as Iran has supported them militarily. “Especially because we stand by Israel’s side, it is important that the Chancellor speaks with the political leaders to clearly convey to them the consequences of their pro-Hamas policy,” Roth said.

Behind all this Byzantine finesse, it is hard not to see the shadow cast by the gas contracts signed between the two countries… at the risk of creating a new dependency for Germany, at a time when it has just painfully turned the page on its overly “realistic” Ostpolitik with Russia.