Indian Defence Review

There is barely any doubt that India, or for that matter any nation can successfully manoeuvre political intrigues within neighbouring countries (of the type, now occurring in the Maldives) to its advantage, but the US with its all powerful CIA- has on many occasions, been able to rock, as also dislodge many political dispensations it regards as “unfriendly” Cuba was for many decades estranged from the USA- the pinnacle of such estrangement was seen many decades back during the missile crisis. –however today after much water has flown down the Potomac – the two countries have forged a new strategic alliance.

India, in due course of time will, hopefully achieve similar success with its neighbours.

In his three decades of dictatorship, former Maldives president Maumoon Abdul Gayoom had to confront three coup attempts in 1980, 1983 and 1988. He had served three presidential terms, which were corrupt, dictatorial, and autocratic. The earlier two attempts were resolved through skillful political manipulation, but the third attempt in 1988 alarmed the international community. About 80 armed Tamil mercenaries came to Male (the atoll, which is the island nation’s capital early dawn through a speed boat) they had all but seized most of Male’s strategically important sites. Fortunately, they were unable to capture Gayoom since he was able to flee from the zone being scanned by his detractors.. He however, had to run from house to house in a desperate bid, not to be caught. Lady Luck also favoured him through the timely intervention of the Indian army in the “Operation Cactus” authorized by the then prime-minister Rajiv Gandhi.

Those were the days of glory for India and its foreign policy. Today, India’s friend and former Maldives president Mohammed Nasheed is under detention and is being tortured by the authorities. He is not even in a position to request India for a bail out help –since he was not even allowed to speak to the media persons and there is no other means, which allows his direct communication. His plight came about in a court case pertaining to his authorizing the arrest and detention of Judge Abdulla Mohamed in April 2013 –a charge which is covered under the island nation’s anti-terrorism laws.

Political Opportunism is the main trigger behind Nasheed’s Arrest:

The spontaneous urgency for initiating criminal proceedings against former president Nasheed, according to the latter’s party men from the Maldivian Democratic Party, is to ensure that the case is concluded before the new penal code comes into effect in April 2015. The provisions under the new penal code, do not have a section which relates to unlawful arrest by abusing power.

Under the provisions (the letter of the law) of the old penal code Nasheed could be jailed for a maximum of three years resulting in him being unable to contest for the 2018 presidential elections.

It is sheer desperation which has made the Abdulla Yameen led government to initiate criminal proceedings against Nasheed. This has also resulted in many important functionaries considered anti establishment being sacked, these include the Chief Justice, Defence Minister and the Auditor General.

Prime-Minister Modi’s Visit

The current political turmoil facing the Maldives may force prime-minister Modi to call off his proposed scheduled for March 15. A visit by Modi, would indicate official endorsement of the unconstitutionalities by the Male regime. In any case, such visits have to be okayed by the host government –which is vociferously pontificating the do’s and don’ts for Delhi

Tectonic Shift From Gayoom’s presidency.

The faultlines from the tectonic shift, following Gayoom’s departure due to his electoral defeat in 2008, and its aftermath leading to the current political upheaval- has placed India in an extremely embarrassing situation at a time when prime-minister Modi is slated to pay an official visit. This also is a time when Male is covertly foul mouthing New Delhi . Last week its Foreign Minister. Dunya Maumoon unabashedly stated “the government had no doubt that India will adhere to the principles of Panch Sheel and will not intervene in the domestic politics of Maldives”. While all that India could say in response was “we are concerned at recent developments including the arrest and manhandling of former president Nasheed…” The utterly muted statement from the Ministry of External affairs says we urge all concerned to calm the situation and resolve their differences within the Constitutional and legal framework of Maldives. This implies that in the present situation New Delhi is politically and diplomatically hamstrung to encore a 1988 Gayoom type rescue act. Any such initiative will brand India as an uncalled for intruder.

India’s Failed Strategy:

India, being clueless and therefore indecisive under the previous political governments completely botched up its Maldives diplomacy due to its non-interventionist approach, which, as has been seen, universally works only in situations when there are no forces at work hostile to the strategy devising nation. In this case India has yielded diplomatic and strategic space to China, which according to many analysts desires a military base in the Maldives.

Nasheed’s arrest unlawful :

Nasheed’s lawyer Hussein said “ his arrest and detention is completely arbitrary and is blatantly politically motivated. Several other members of Nasheeds’s party have also been charged. Nasheed, it should be remembered was removed after a police rebellion and street side protests against him. He gave up office as president with almost a gun pointing to his temple. His Maldivian Democratic Party blamed the rogue elements in the police force along with supporters of his predecessor Mayoom Abdul Gayoom for his being sacked.

India Should Waste no Time in Galvanising International Action:

India merely pleading with the Maldives not to be cruel to Nasheed would itself be grossly insufficient. Today, when many nations such as those from the Commonwealth, besides Denmark, Norway, Switzerland, the UK, USA and Canada seeing the blatant travesty of justice in the island nation- have raised a clarion call for course correction by Male, India should not lose a single second to invoke their support.

The present imbroglio has forced Qasim Ibrahim a former partner of Nasheed’s ruling coalition to seek asylum in India.

Conclusion:

Knowing fully well that Beijing, to a greater extent and Islamabad to a lesser, are more than equipped to put a spanner in India’s works when New Delhi attempts friendly outreaches to its neighbours –India should allow only such economic collaboration, which will find implementation and succeed economically. Of course, non government contracts are not within the purview of government’s overall control, but that doesn’t and shouldn’t prevent New Delhi from embarking on a “ fail safe roadmap “ of the kind Japan is adept at. The GMR project for the construction of the Male International Airport was unilaterally terminated by the Maldives in 2012. After the termination, this multi billion contract was given to China. . President Xi Jinping’s recently concluded visit to the Maldives has seen China bag many infrastructure based projects . Had New Delhi imbibed due diligence and scrupulously overseen its collaboration contracts and nuanced them as gestures of goodwill and concord in a manner Beijing always does –India would never be leaving a vacuum for Beijing to fill. As per the latest news reports the Maldivian president will very soon be visiting Pakistan and China with the primary objective of evolving a strategy of checkmating Indian influence in Maldives. Beijing has for a long time desired to have a naval base in Maldives and this will be a priority agenda item.