Indian Defence Review

India and Myanmar share not only 1600 kilometres of land border but also a spectrum of commonalities of heritage and culture. There is a sizeable population of Indians living in Myanmar even today and reasonable exchange of border trade takes place with our north-eastern states. Historically,  the two nations  had  been conjoined  twins  of the  British empire  for  over  a  hundred  years  and  were  separated only in 1937¹ when Burma, from being a province of British India became an independently administered colony of Britain. After getting independence post World War-II, both nations shared common democratic values and followed socialist practices albeit ‘Myanmar’s way of Socialism’ as practiced by their president Ne Win was grossly different from the one followed in other nations. However, the two nations shared strong diplomatic ties till as late as early nineties. Subsequent to the rigged elections in 1990 and the military takeover, there was a dip in relations as Myanmar’s image was mired in reports of large scale human rights abuse by suppressing the democratic rights of citizens by the ruling military junta.

India restored its good-neighbourly relations in the mid nineties as part of its ‘Look East Policy’ (LEP) adopted by then PM Narasimha Rao’s regime. By this time China, which is Myanmar’s sour northern neighbour and had experienced tumultuous relations, which included complete snapping of ties for over a decade, had now suddenly emerged as a saviour and supporter of the tyrannical military regime of Tatmadaw. Seeing the ingress of China in its neighbourhood, India too engaged with the military regime but at the same time continued to support the democratic process and its leader Aung San Suu Kyi’s tirade for restoration of democracy.

India welcomed the democratic elections of 2011 and extended whole hearted support to Thein Sein’s government which began the process of reforms.   Subsequent elections of Nov 2015 which established a full-fledged democratic government brought in the Suu Kyi led NLD to power and continued the reforms. India’s  nurturing  and  support to the  democratic  process in Myanmar  has  been unstinted and  whole hearted. There have been a large number of visits of the head of the government from both sides and also signing of accords  of  friendship and  cooperation at  all levels.

Myanmar’s strategic importance for both India and China cannot be gainsaid. To India it is a land bridge to ASEAN countries and for China a land bridge to the Indian Ocean. In the past two decades China has gone out of their way to help Myanmar and even came out as their saviour from the wrath of UN sanction for human right abuse in 2007 by exercising its veto power in the Security Council. China has also constructed two pipelines for Oil and Gas through Myanmar for which it is paying an annual tariff of almost USD 30 million resulting in an earning of over USD 30 billion in the next 30 years, which is an enormous sum for the fledging economy of Myanmar². The pipeline connects Kuaykphyu to Kunming which may subsequently turn into an economic corridor akin to CPEC. By commissioning the two pipelines, China is not only buying Oil and Gas from Myanmar but has also made an alternate route to avoid getting their oil tankers strangled at the US-dominated narrow Straits at Malacca. This action of China and restoration of democracy made not only the USA but also the other western countries lift majority of the sanctions against Myanmar. By 2015 Myanmar economy was on the path to recovery as the US, Japan and many European companies started investing in Myanmar.

China’s new initiatives in Myanmar

Inspite  of China’s  overwhelming  support  to the  military  regime,  democracy was partially restored in 2010 elections with a quasi-military government headed by  an ex-General  and  fully restored  with a  duly elected civilian head of state  in 2015. This was seen as a setback for China’s Myanmar policy by many analysts. A number of countries had removed the trade sanction against Myanmar from 2011 onwards.  In 2011, the government of Myanmar stopped work on China sponsored USD 3.6 billion Myitsone project because of internal pressures and reports of damage to environment³. However, China has continued to engage with not only the semi military regime of Gen Thein Sein but also with Aung San Suu Kyi after her party  came to power. China’s investment in Myanmar’s infrastructure projects is a whopping USD 18 billion which is almost nine times more than its next biggest neighbour, India. China’s recent OBOR conference was attended by none other than Aung San Suu Kyi the foreign minister and leader of the ruling party. The delegation later met the President of China.  After their meeting, the State Counsellor and the Premier witnessed the signing of the following five agreements between Myanmar and China.  These are Agreement on Economic and Technical Cooperation, Memorandum of Understanding on the Establishment of China-Myanmar Border Economic Cooperation Zone, Memorandum of Understanding on Cooperation within the Framework of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21stCentury Maritime Silk Road Initiative, Memorandum of Understanding on Health Cooperation and Memorandum of Understanding on Cooperation in Post-quake Restoration and Protection of Historic Monuments of Bagan⁴.

Isn’t Myanmar Skeptical of China?

This seemingly moot question has an answer which is known to everyone in Myanmar and doesn’t even need a citation, and the answer is nothing but ‘Yes’.  The reasons for this affirmative answer are aplenty. Historically, China’s support to   the Communist Party of Burma (CPB) was detested by everyone in the decade of ‘60s and large scale riots had broken out in Myanmar to oust them. Secondly, many Chinese companies who have invested huge capital in Myanmar shown tremendous apathy for the environmental causes and also hampered the local businesses. Thirdly, the timber treasures of Myanmar forests are well known to the world. There was large-scale smuggling of timber carried out by Chinese from the mountainous border areas. In Jan 2015 about 153 Chinese nationals involved in illegal logging and smuggling in Kachin state were apprehended⁵. They were tried by Myanmar’s courts and sentenced. However, they were later released. Smuggling of jade and other natural resource wealth of Myanmar has also resulted in arousing legitimate outrage of locals against Chinese businessmen. South Asian analyst Xio Tao opines in his recently published article in The Diplomat that “Myanmar’s people generally have rather unfavorable impressions of China or the Chinese. Their reasons are varied: some said the Chinese come to take away their natural resources, such as trees, copper, and gem stones; others complained that local industries are being destroyed by the influx of Chinese products; a few blamed Beijing for ongoing ethnic conflicts in the regions on border with China. Many were reluctant to talk about China, either with me or with my students”⁶. At this juncture, it is understandable that Myanmar needs loads of investment that is largely being met from its northern neighbour. Hence, overtly it is once again ‘pauk phaw’ (fraternal or brotherly) overtones from both sides.

India needs to Act East, Act Fast

The ‘Look East Policy’ (LEP) adopted by India in the late nineties could not yield the desired results in Myanmar as it was not able to make any major breakthrough in getting some major projects. The Oil Pipeline project for which India was a strong bidder was handed over to China in 2008. The other two major projects of Kaladan Multimodal Freight Corridor and India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway project were moving at a very slow pace through almost a decade.⁷ There was an impending need for injecting fresh steam into the LEP. The present government immediately reacted and in 2014 launched the ‘Act East Policy’ (AEP) which initiated new forays not only in Myanmar but also with the other ASEAN countries. As of now Indian investments in Myanmar is about USD 2 billion. In FY 2015, Myanmar’s trade with India was at USD 1.3 billion as against USD 9.6 billion with China and USD 5.7 billion with Thailand. As far as FDI in Myanmar is concerned India is the 9th largest investor with a meagre 1.36% of total FDI invested into Myanmar. These figures themselves speak for the tardy results achieved from the LEP. After the implementation of AEP India-Myanmar trade has shown improvement and grew by 6 percent from USD 2.05 billion in 2015 -16 to USD 2.18 billion in 2016-17⁸.  Towards this, former Indian Commerce and Industry minister Nirmala Sitharaman said that the bilateral trade between the countries has a much larger untapped potential. “She sought the cooperation of the Myanmar side in actively pursuing enhanced road, sea and air connectivity between the two”. This matter was discussed in detail during the sixth India–Myanmar Joint Trade Committee meeting in New Delhi in Jun 2017. Both the sides also agreed to explore opening of two new border trade points at Pangkhuwa and Zoninpuri. At present the border trade between the two countries is only from four points and these additional border trade points will give a much needed boost to the border trade. India –Myanmar signed the border trade agreement only in 1994 and from then onwards the progress has  been  rather slow when compared to  China. China accounts for almost 87% of Myanmar’s border trade. Its share has significantly improved from 62% in 1990s, whereas for India that accounted for 4% share in the same period but now accounts for less than 1% (0.8% to be precise). Thailand accounts for 12% of Myanmar’s border trade and rest is accounted for by Bangladesh⁹.

In order to impel Myanmar into its folds it is time that India understands it present day needs. Myanmar is battling serious internal strife and the Myanmar government and the army needs to control the rebellious armies; for this the Tatmadaw needs upgradations in its equipment. The new democratic set up needs to strengthen the democratic institutions. It needs large scale investments in infrastructure and rural development. The country is rich in resources but poor in industries. There is a large scale need for its manufacturing sector to develop. There is a great deal required in its IT and Communication sector. India has all the wherewithal to not only invest but also collaborate with a view to help them establish new institutions and industry. The visit of PM Modi to Myanmar in September was a step in the right direction at the right time. Hopefully, it has given the relation and AEP a shot in the arm to attain newer heights of strategic and economic collaboration¹⁰.

SAARC and Myanmar

Myanmar has been a responsible member of ASEAN since 1997. In May 2008 Myanmar had formally requested to be included in SAARC which did not materialize. Probably because, at that time, it was ruled by a military junta that  faced international criticism for  suppressing democratic forces and imprisoning its pro-democracy leader and Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi¹¹. Though, subsequently it was given a status of observer along with eight other nations which include China, US and EU. Geographically, Myanmar is on the boundary of South and South-east Asia and historically and culturally it shares a lot of commonalities with the Indian subcontinent in general and north east India in particular. A lot of positive changes have taken place since the restoration of democracy since 2011 and hence the time is now ripe and opportune to take Myanmar into the SAARC folds which would prove to be a win-win situation for both at this stage. Myanmar who sits on the boundary of South and south-east Asia shares a large land border with two SAARC nations. Inclusion of Myanmar in SAARC will give the newly elected civilian government a much required fillip in enhancing ties towards its west and also a pivot to counter balance the growing dependence on China.

Seeing the present day frequent conundrums and stand-offs with China which is  focusing on South Asian and South East Asian nations for creating neo-economical corridors among them by initiating projects under the OBOR initiatives it’s  time for India also to  adopt an assertive policy  especially in  the South Asian region and one of the ways to achieve it is by strengthening SAARC.

Courtesy: http://www.claws.in/1816/india-myanmar-relations-time-to-act-mohinder-pal-singh.html